Thunderstorms develop when specific atmospheric conditions align, including wind shear (where clouds at different elevations move in different directions at different speeds), convective available potential energy (CAPE), and moisture availability. Forecasters analyze these factors along with geographic positioning to predict where severe storms will form, as demonstrated by the analysis of storm development zones near Prince George, BC, where the speaker identified high-risk areas between Vanderhoof and Prince George based on observed cloud formations and atmospheric instability indicators.
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Severe Storms Likely Wednesday in British Columbia!!Added:
Caribou Weather Dude YouTube channel.
Here I am sitting on the back of the service truck and that's the one that I drive. Not that I'm that mechanically gifted or am the one that should be driving it. Just that's just how it works out. Uh but I like it. I've learned where everything is in it and I'm learning how to use a lot of stuff in here I never used before. So that's great. I'm really enjoying myself. So we we put the bridge together today. Uh so you like construct it, you know, on the ground. You get the steel girders together and put it all together. Then we lift it into place with the um with the excavators with the hose. So that's tomorrow. We're going to be doing that.
Lots of serial cumulus this morning.
Lots of sero stratus. Going to have a nice day today on Tuesday, but I have a feeling that things are going to turn thunderstorm in the Caribou on Wednesday. Thunderstorm. Now there's a forecast, the thunderstorm conversation.
In the far distance, I can see some Sierra Stratus that's been there pretty much since the morning time.
It's not that far a distance, but what it does tell me is that they think the risk of thunderstorm the closer you are to Prince George and the closer like sort of northwest of where I am right now in the Caribou. So like maybe Bad Nuni out to Kenny and then over towards Prince George. I think that's kind of the development zone I'm looking at.
Although I don't think it's out of the question where I am here. Uh you know a ways past Tibbles.
Wednesday we get thunderstorms before the rain comes. Our bridge is coming along nicely. First, we put it together here and then they're going to lift it with the hose and up on the deck. I don't know what day we'll get to that this week, but stay tuned to the channel. It's going to be good. And I have a lot more to show you about bridge building. But that's maybe tomorrow's video unless we have some thunderstorms to form uh film. Okay, let's look at the sky. And uh the forecast is calling for thunderstorms. Yes, a little bit in southern BC. I think non severe down there. The real story is going to be right about uh maybe not here, but close by. You see the low is going to land I think. Now there's some diverging opinions and they're not diverging by much. I mean 100 km spread maybe between all of them. So what I'm saying is that um I think the GFS has the load down centered near Williams Lake. Um maybe the Icon had it a little bit further north. Uh, and the HRDPS, the Canadian model, has the low sitting right on top of Nazco at 8 to 9 in the morning.
So, if that's the case though, if it's a Nazco, that means I'm not in the right place for the development exactly. It's just over there. It's going to be just, you know, maybe Bat Nuni up to Kenny Dam.
They'll pop up there. They're going to move through towards Prince George, Vanderhoo, Fort St. James, and they're going to be very strong, I think, once they cross that Highway 16 corridor and make their way, you know, towards the Heart Highway 97 north of Prince George. When they do that, um, eventually they'll run out of energy as the day goes on. So, I think we're going to see some severe thunderstorms in that area. There is some convective available potential energy. And I'm looking for a high place. Maybe I'll go stand on top of the low bed here so I can get out a look to the clouds to show you exactly what I'm talking about. Well, my key just went to town. So, I shut the generator off and we ended a little early today. So, from up on top the low bed, what are we seeing? It's really clouded up this afternoon. It's really the low is uh announcing itself a little bit ahead of time, but still the direction of things.
You look at how soupy it is to the north. The soup is up there. Although I saw something today that was very interesting that gave me a little bit of a clue. I saw wind shear today on a day with no thunderstorm expectation. What is windshare, Joey? Windshar is when the clouds at different elevations are moving different directions in different speeds. So generally like these are all right now moving the same way. But earlier this afternoon I was noticing an under layer all running sort of more to the south.
That's the big time thunderstorm development thing you need. So, what was going on then was these top ones are all going uh sort of like so, right? And then these bottom ones were almost going the exact opposite direction. Wind shears. So, you have that's a big sign of instability.
That's a big sign of I think what we might see tomorrow. Of course, the the various uh alto cumulus and um uh serial cumulus I saw today, too. They're all really good signs of that development that's going to come. So, I think like we're totally in. And I'm really hoping it comes here. Like, I'd love a night show, especially. Look at this view out.
I never get a chance in Wells to see so far. I don't have to climb a mountain here to walk a thunderstorm. I can just sit right at camp. It would be excellent.
I don't think I'm gonna get it, but it's not out of the question. It's not out of the question. But I would bank. I'd put my money on anyone who lives between especially between Vanderof and Prince George. And then you you know you do the do the like so up which includes Fort St. James up and gets to the highway.
There we are. Hard highway. Here's 16.
Here's hard highway. Everything in that swing. Am I doing it the right direction for you? I think so. I think so. So, if you're west of Prince George in that stretch, I think with with 150k west and 100 150k north, you're probably somewhere in the middle of that is where the severe storm is going to happen. And I have a feeling it's going to kick.
Okay, everybody. Care weather dude YouTube channel. Sorry I can't do my regular forecasting quite the way I normally do, but tax man hit me pretty hard. Keep supporting my channel. Air show. Where are all these skimmers going?
1 2 3 4 5 six. All of them.
They're going for an attack run somewhere.
Hot day. Dry.
Believable.
So, that's going on. And seeing those bombers go by just drives home the point that we're already getting dry again. I mean, typically West Caribou is getting dry. Uh fire danger is climbing up and we will be in fire danger tomorrow.
Lightning strikes could start fires.
We're not getting enough rain with these thunderstorms to put them out. There will be some rain in the days after.
That should calm things down a little bit. But as you saw, the attack crews were flying over today and that tells you all you need to know. Fire is already happening somewhere out where I am. I'm not here to give uh fire updates. Nonetheless, take it seriously. So, support the channel.
That's all. That's all. That's the show for today, I think, everybody. A little short little short on maps, but we're doing the best we can. Okay, bye for
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