آخر التطورات في أسعار النفط بعد صدور مسودة الاتفاق بين أميركا وإيران - شرق غرب

Añadido: 2026-06-03

[00:00:01]Let's look at oil prices. We've seen them fluctuate, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) even dropping below $ 90. Oil prices have fallen sharply, but the current decline is around 3%, meaning there's a slight decrease.

[00:00:15]This drop came after reports of a draft agreement between Washington and Tehran, which includes restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month of any potential agreement. WTI crude fell by more than 4% during the day, reaching below $90 during the session. Brent crude is currently declining, nearing $96, as market bets grow that the supply crisis in the Gulf is easing. According to reports, Iran will manage shipping traffic in the Strait in cooperation with Oman in exchange for the withdrawal of US forces from the vicinity of Iran and the lifting of the land blockade. However, despite this optimism, markets remain cautious at this time. Markets are cautious after all this news and with renewed military tensions this week. The White House stated today that the report broadcast by Iranian state television... He cites a preliminary and informal framework for a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, which is incorrect, and the memorandum in question is entirely fabricated. This is a Reuters report released just moments ago. Therefore, you see that oil prices are recovering from their declines because these sharp drops we witnessed were within the context of reaching an agreement whereby Iran would get what it wants and manage the Strait of Hormuz. This is something the United States seems to reject and has not agreed to, and this is one of the reasons—aside, of course, from the nuclear issue and enriched uranium—but who will control the Strait of Hormuz? And if they do, will they have the right to impose fees? What do they call them?

[00:02:10]Fees? So that they can collect fees? Thanks to the producer, they can impose fees that Iran can collect. That's why we saw these rapid effects.

[00:02:28]Joining us from Washington is Justin Dargen, a senior fellow at Harvard University and an energy and geopolitical fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs. Welcome, Justin. The markets today seem to be... You're betting on an agreement, we'll see an agreement, more than you're betting on escalation. Is there a disregard for the geopolitical risks in the region now? What do you think?

[00:03:02]Certainly, the markets are currently basing their expectations on rumors. It seems we've heard for two months that an agreement is imminent, but nothing has happened.

[00:03:18]I think this is based on two factors: First, the significant increase in automated trading, and artificial intelligence now constitutes 80% of trading. This happens when there's a change in prices at the macro level, but this isn't being properly assessed.

[00:03:39]In the next few weeks, there will be panic buying from refineries that have used up their stockpiles in Asia, thus mitigating risks. And quickly, even if the Straits of Hormuz open, it will take months before the transit level recovers to affect prices, not to mention the damage inflicted on oil facilities in the region.

[00:04:08]Today there's a decline in oil prices, meaning, and you're also talking about all these factors, global inventories are decreasing, supplies are still under pressure. So why did the market relax? Why did we see this decline? Is it a temporary respite, and will we see a return to growth? Because there is indeed a Demand is eroding, but there's a supply problem and an inventory problem. Why is the market down so much?

[00:04:42]Demand is eroding, but it only reached 2 million barrels per day before the crisis. We remember that oil demand was 1.4 million and reached 1.2 million, but the available supply is 25 million barrels per day. So this structural gap has been compensated for by using inventories, and this cannot be sustainable.

[00:05:12]This significant price movement in futures contracts is due to what I'm seeing now and an increase in automated trading, as I mentioned, which constitutes 80% of total oil trading. But actually, getting a barrel of oil to refineries last month was around $130-$140 per barrel. So there's a huge discrepancy between the actual market price and the price of transporting barrels to Asian or European refineries that need them, as well as the financial markets, for example, futures contracts.

[00:05:51]This is far from reality.

[00:05:54]Okay, Justin, let's talk a little about the Strait of Hormuz specifically, and the document that came from Iran, the negotiating document, which... It contains clauses that stipulate or state that Iran will be able to collect fees in one way or another, and it seems that my subconscious mind is not satisfied with this whole idea, so every day I forget. For three days now I have been forgetting to say the word fees. What are these fees if they are implemented? How can they affect the movement of ships, the movement of shipping, and also the movement of oil and gas in the Strait of Hormuz? And is it logical in your opinion?

[00:06:39]To begin, I want to say that even if an agreement is reached and implemented, it will take several weeks before the mines can be cleared.

[00:06:54]Even the Iranian government doesn't know the exact number of mines due to the deterioration of its command structures during the crisis. So, this is just the beginning. As for the fees, this is the problem. Of course, the Gulf states will not accept these fees, but it seems that Iran has the upper hand at the moment because it has demonstrated its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz. Even if it's due to psychological fears of ships being attacked or struck by mines, I don't see any possibility of imposing these fees in the long term.

[00:07:37]However, Iran wants to impose fees because it wants to obtain funds for reconstruction.

[00:07:48]It's possible that if there is an agreement to release its funds and reduce sanctions on the Iranian economy, these fees might be waived, or suitable arrangements might be made that satisfy everyone.

[00:08:01]What arrangements could satisfy everyone? For example, could the United States agree to these fees? This is one of the points of contention, I believe, in addition to other points. Enriched uranium and other issues, but the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the items on the agenda.

[00:08:25]Certainly, it's a matter of yes or no.

[00:08:28]However, we must understand that the Strait of Hormuz is a symptom of the core problem, which is Iranian nuclear activities. This can be summarized in two points: first, what will happen to its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (over 60%), and second, whether Iran will halt its nuclear activities for the period the administration desires—20 years. All other matters are symptoms of this crisis. The Strait of Hormuz was closed to reach an agreement on these two fundamental issues. As for what might be acceptable to Iran, Iran wants to obtain funds, and this is one of the reasons that led to the implementation of the tariff system. I believe that if there is a way for the Trump administration to release Iran's frozen assets and gradually reduce or lift some economic sanctions, then Iran might come to the negotiating table to reopen the strait. But the two fundamental nuclear issues are what will happen if... The agreement was not permanent, nor was it a temporary reopening of the strait.

[00:09:46]So how do you interpret the conflicting messages from Washington?

[00:09:51]We talked a little about the messages coming from Iran and the contradictions there, but what about the contradictory messages we receive from Washington?

[00:10:07]I think that, unfortunately, very few individuals, even within the administration, know precisely what the ultimate purpose of what is happening is. Because of this, there has been a failure to deliver consistent messages about the war effort. Consequently, I cannot explain what is happening regarding the contradictions within the White House and the reason for them. Undoubtedly, there is a problem with the consistency of the messages, and this also poses a problem with additional supplies to the market because American suppliers will not drill more for oil unless they are convinced that oil prices will remain high. However, the administration insists that oil prices will fall significantly after the Strait is opened, which means that oil producers and oil companies in the United States will not increase their investments.

[00:11:08]This is my analysis of the situation, and we cannot know what is happening and the reasons behind it.

[00:11:14]Justin Dargen, a fellow at Harvard University and an energy and geopolitical fellow at the Middle East Council, joined us from Washington. Welcome, and thank you very much.