🚨 My Next Trades on BTC, ETH and ARB: Full Breakdown

追加: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]The stock market is going from new all-time highs to new all-time highs.

[00:00:04]Yesterday, we have seen Nvidia push into new all-time highs as well. BTC looks like it's a little bit more stuck here at $78,000.

[00:00:13]In this video, I want to give you my perspective and that is actually two trades of interest on BTC. I will look at Ethereum where I can see one trade of interest and I will also have a look at another altcoin that caught my attention in the last altcoin weekly update that I have done. So let's jump straight into this video and look at what I am expecting on BTC. So, if you followed my videos on BTC from when it was in February when we hit $59,000, all I was waiting for, all I was doing was look at market structure on BTC.

[00:00:52]This is how I caught two long trades thus far on BTC and that was around this region here where I laded into a nice long trade as I was simply waiting for market structure to form. So, just as a quick recap, what I was looking at after we formed this low was price to give us a high, a first reference point, a higher low, a higher high, and then I was just going for higher lows here and higher lows here to make a new high on BTC, at least locally. This, of course, is not a an overall new high, but in my opinion, the best thing to do here was definitely to go with market structure and not really try to short this range.

[00:01:32]If I was taking a short trade, which I have done here, it was more of a reactionarybased trade. It was not really pre-planned. It was just seeing the weakness that we had at this high and then taking a short trade based off of that. But in terms of a predefined short trade, it's not really the best environment at the moment to do so, if you ask me. At least it wasn't in that range. So now we can see BTC hit the daily level of resistance at $78,600.

[00:02:02]Ever since we had a little bit of a retracement. So we tested that level once. We tested that level twice. In my opinion, the first test of that level definitely didn't give a short trade. If we look at the second one, we could arguably say that there was a low timeframe SFP. So if we zoom into here, it was a super super shallow SFP, but we can see the high was technically taken and then we have seen at least a better reaction to the downside. For me, for transparency, I have not taken this short trade. So the only trade I am in from this local price action here is two long trades that I built and of course spot BTC. So I want to first have a look at the next levels of resistance before I give you my trading plan for two levels of interest when it comes to long trades on BTC.

[00:02:55]So whenever I look at a chart, my eyes are always drawn towards liquidity regions. This is always supply and demand zones or previous highs, previous lows. So on BTC what we can clearly see is that we are still trading around this previous high that we had. For me it's not the most important one to be completely honest with you. I am more interested in the region around $86,000.

[00:03:22]The reason for this is very simple and that is we have the previous range value area low. So especially on crypto this tends to be a major key level. So what we can see is that this volume profile here includes the price action of what is it 450 days. Okay. So this is a massive volume profile and this value area low of the previous big range that we had is lining up with a nice previous demand zone. So if we look at that region here we can see demand once, twice, three times, four times then it was impulsively lost. So on a retest, this definitely is a key level for me. So now the question of course is, am I expecting $86,000 to be hit the moment we claim $78,000 or $79,000?

[00:04:20]And the answer to this is no. There's one level in between that we have to claim first, which is going to be 80,500 in my opinion. So this is where I am at least looking at first to see what's happening in this region. In my opinion 80,500 is going to be a major key level.

[00:04:42]I just don't think that I am pre-planning a trade here. This again will be a reactionary based trade. So what I mean with that is if we hit this level for example, I can at least expect that many people will get super bullish at around this region. For me, I will never take a long trade up here. What I would look at is market structure to be my best friend here again. And that means on the lower time frame such as the 30 minute time frame, I would look at a scenario where we do a market structure change to the downside and only then I would take a short trade on BTC in this region of the chart. Okay?

[00:05:24]So I want to see that level hit. I want to see the weakness first and only then I will take a short trade. When it comes to pre-planning a trade, it looks a little bit different around $86,000. So that means if we push into $86,000, it depends on I need more data for that of course, but it depends on what we do with that previous low. If we claim it, then see the rise into $86,000. This is where I am way more interested in pre-planning a trade, waiting for my entry confirmation, and then take at least a head short trade around $86,000.

[00:06:00]The resistance though is going to be into $90,000. So that is more of a swing trade. The first area of interest 86 if that is claimed 90,600 is going to be my next key level of interest. Okay. So that is going to be a swing short trade/h trade where I would keep a wider invalidation and see all of these reactions here. Okay. But first we have to claim 80,500.

[00:06:29]I am interested in the short trade if we see the weakness being a 30inut market structure change. Okay. So now I'm going to have a look at this region down here which in my opinion offers two interesting trades. For that I want to go down to the 4hour time frame and also mark out the volume profile for this range right here. We can do that quickly and see that we have seen a nice reclaim of this value area high. So we had resistance resistance resistance then it was claimed and we made at least a local new high. So in terms of context building I always like to look at these things just to know or understand what was happening here exactly what am I working with. Okay. So if you ask me there's two levels as I already mentioned and the first level is going to be around $73,000.

[00:07:23]So what I like about this is that similar to the stock market, we have seen, especially recently, a move to the upside on BTC, we have seen a few more retests. However, I always want to see an anchored VWAP being tested at some point. So here we can see this anchored VWAP hasn't been tested in a long time now. And this is lining up with a nice daily naked point of control. At the same time, we can see it's lining up with a nice low. So, for my entries, I always prefer entries to line up with either a previous supply or demand zone or a low. That gives me the easiest entries. So, here we can see decent nice confluence for at least a day trade on BTC around $73,000.

[00:08:12]At this point, I only have a alert placed at this level. It's not that I will limit into this trade, but if I see that level hit with my preferred entry confirmation here being a specific candle formation, then I will take this trade on BTC. It starts as a day trade.

[00:08:32]That means I'm interested in taking a quick takerit one, but then potentially holding this trade for even $86,000.

[00:08:39]This is more speculative at this point, but that would be my overall target for this trade. Okay, so this is BTC. In my opinion, the first good level for a long trade, $73,000.

[00:08:54]Then I can have a look at another trade.

[00:08:57]And that would be if we actually see a bigger move to the downside. So now I can utilize the or what you always hear me talk about is price location. What about price location? Whenever I want to look for a swing trade, I need price to be in a good location. So that means I need to see a significant pullback to even be interested in entertaining a trade. And for this I can always use the 25 tool. And here we can see the 25 is lining up with $68,000 where we do have a daily and a daily NPC. So, when it comes to swing trading territory, the first area of interest or the only level of interest to be honest would be $68,000 where I could then look for more of a swing trade. It is also for now pretty far away. So, that would be a drop of 10% around 10%.

[00:09:52]So, the moment we hit this level, data can have changed at that point. So this means if we see a big drop in the stock market, some geopolitical news or whatever these days a lot can happen, this trade can be invalidated.

[00:10:09]This is just an idea at this point where if I pre-plan a trade, I always need to know am I looking for a day trade in this region? Am I looking for a swing trade in this region? Thus this I can pre-plan as a day trade. This I can in terms of the price location pre-plan as a swing trade but still I need to see the reaction the moment we hit that level. It could be that we simply shoot through that level. We do not see a reaction and then I will simply not take a trade. So I will only take a trade at $68,000 if I see a good reaction. Okay. So that in summary is what I'm looking at on BTC. 80,500 is the first level of resistance. I'm going to see the market structure change here for a potential trade. If that is claimed, I think $86,000 is a very realistic target. First is a day trading zone of interest, $73,000.

[00:11:06]The only swing trade I can look at, if we think about price location, is $68,000.

[00:11:12]Now I want to have a look at Ethereum which is a little I'm going to keep it a little bit more simple here on Ethereum to be honest as Ethereum is very very slow. If you followed my videos you know that 2,382 has been a key resistance. This is again I explained this on BTC. Why am I interested in 86,000 on BTC? It's the previous range value area low. Here on Ethereum, we do have the previous range value area low at exactly this region where we rejected once, twice, three times, four times, five times at this point. So, we can definitely agree to the fact that this is always a key resistance. Okay, previous range value area lows is a level you always want to keep on your chart, especially when trading altcoins.

[00:12:01]So on Ethereum, in my opinion, there's only one area of interest on a retracement, and that's going to be around 2,18 where we have a daily daily NPOC, the range point of control, and also a nice price location being the 75. So even if we retrace into here, the market structure could still be maintained on Ethereum. So if we look at this low, we have a high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high. Even if we move into here, price could still maintain this bullish market structure and we could potentially see another move to the upside. And this is where I am interested in my at the moment one and only trade here on Ethereum. Other than that, I'm staying invested in spot as I bought spot on the move to the downside down here, which was a predefined level I've been looking at for months and months. So, yeah, but that is the only level here for a trade. So, now I want to look at something which um was a little bit of a more speculative play and that was near. So if you check my if you checked my last video on YouTube um in terms of the altcoin trades that I was looking at I gave this trade here on near and that was based off the fact I mean you can check this video I would do that just for reference purposes but I wanted to see the market structure here as market structure change here as well and then I wanted to ladder into this trade on this asset we only filled or managed to fill I only managed to fill my first order that was down here. So, we had an increase of 25% which was pretty nice. This order down here, I don't think it's going to be filled or if we fill this, I'm no longer interested. So, this is a trade that has a stop- loss at break even at this point. So, zero risk for this trade, right? But the idea here is very important to understand. That's why I would say check the previous video as I now found something that looks super similar and is also one of these altcoins where I'm not going to take the biggest position size, but if I get my entry, I'm at least going to take it on a small position size just to give it a try as I do like how it looks. But it is very important that this is more of a speculative play and is definitely not to be considered as an A++ trade. This is just if there is opportunities on altcoins, I would see this here on AR as well. So for that I do need to zoom out a little bit and understand what AR was doing over the last months and that was just move to the downside over and over again making new lows super super super weak. Okay. But um for the first time down here at least I can see a local sign of strength. But we can see from its all-time high, lower high, lower high, lower high. If we go to the daily time frame, we can see there was a clear trend line even that we have now broken. But that was more based off time than of an actual move.

[00:15:11]But we can see super weak market. I remember trading a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a ar a arb sorry sorry it's arb way back where we had amazing trades that is for sure okay but especially if we look at the last what is it from August 20 25 we can see only signs of weakness here there was no clean sign of strength here but for the first time there is at least a little bit of a sign of strength and for that if you know me I always look at market structure so let's first analy ize the historic price action a little bit. We have seen a major bounce here.

[00:15:48]Overall though, lower high, lower high.

[00:15:51]This means no trade here. We look at the next region that was formed here. Let's say this was the high, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high. Again, in terms of that, there's no trade to be had. At least for me, when I see this, cuz I always do my alt outcoin weekly update dates every Thursday and I see an altcoin that is requested for me to analyze, but I can see it's not even able to do a market structure change. I always know I'm going to skip skip this altcoin as yeah, I'm just following strict rules when it comes to that and I would only be interested after daily market structure changes. And yeah, I have so many alcoins to choose from that I can be super selective when it comes to that. So, let's keep this in mind.

[00:16:38]What I always look at and now we can see this formation here on ARB. The first thing that I saw was that this low looks okay in my opinion. We had a previous low didn't manage to do the market structure change cuz here we can do again lower high lower high. So, we look at a new low. New low was made. I consider this done. After that though, we can see that price took out the previous high, flipped this previous supply zone into demand and we even took out the previous highs here. So in terms of market structure change for the first time, this is now changing and I can see a little bit of a local sign of strength here on ARB. At the same time, after seeing this massive drop to the downside, this is, as I said many times now, a more speculative play. However, I am interested at least on a super small allocation of my portfolio to ladder into this trade. The first area of interest would be the daily. The next area of interest would be the CC. I'm not risking a lot of capital on this.

[00:17:45]Everything I'm doing here is no financial advice anyways. But for me at least on a small percentage, I would be interested in trying this trade here on ARB as I do like this formation I must say. So if I saw this same formation on BTC, I would guarantee that I am interested in this long trade. So here it is more speculative as this altcoin has been dying over the last couple of months. But at least for a speculative play that I could potentially hold for a little bit longer if it plays out, I am willing to take that risk. Okay, so this is two areas of interest here for ARB.

[00:18:26]And yeah, with that being said, this is exactly how I approach my altcoins. So if you are interested in that, I'm doing these altcoin weekly updates every single week. This is also where you can request altcoins where you have whatever altcoin you are interested in. You can pop that in the chat and I'm going to have a look at that, analyze it and try to find the best trades on this altcoin.

[00:18:48]So that is going to be it. That is all I wanted to look at for this video. That is BTC, Ethereum, and then ARB for my next levels of interest. What I'm going to do these days is stay super patient for my levels to hit. I don't want to force any trades. I let the trades come to me and then execute after seeing my predefined entry strategy on these coins. Could be BTC or altcoins. So, I hope you enjoyed this video. Let me know in the comments down below if there's any altcoins you want me to look at because I'm also planning to do a live stream to analyze some altcoins very soon. So, please let me know in the comments down below if you're interested in that and see you in the live stream.

[00:19:28]Goodbye.