BJP’s Immense Hindu Support May Reshape West Bengal Politics Amid Governance Anger | News18

Ajouté : 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]joining us. I know that you're candidate. It's been a long arduous day for you. Uh how are you reading the mood? Our poll first phase we've put out and we're giving uh the uh the TMC second dibs. Really, we put the BJP up there mean number 93 in the first phase.

[00:00:24]What's your reading? Do you think it's an accurate assessment? Do you think we've underestimating and if you were to project further into phase two the phase that today you found yourself sort of uh in the in the middle of what's your expectation what's your assessment >> you know uh Rahul what what I find is very interesting about this election particularly in in the two phases is the spike in the turnout and I I think what's that to my mind will tell the entire story of this election because it's not about sir it's not about anything else it's very basically it's it has turned out to be a referendum on the very integrity and survival of West Bengal and at least that's the issue I found which resonates most on the doorstep and in in among people of different classes etc. So uh this election uh could well be uh certain it's it's called a sort of a landmark election in so far as that it it overturns a lot of uh existing assumptions of both psyology as well as political behavior. It it it could be, you know, I mean, or or we could well be talking about a false dawn. Uh, but my own sense is that now I'm not getting into the numbers game, but very very carefully I'm I just want to say is that there is a profound mood of exasperation in West Bengal and a desire to make a new beginning. Now, how this is going to turn out is another matter altogether.

[00:02:20]But I feel that somehow today the Trinamul Congress is really on the back foot curtsy a lot of this uh inherited I mean curtsy the the mounting incumbency which has taken a very long time to actually manifest itself fully.

[00:02:43]>> Well let me ask you Mr. Das Gupta follow-up question. I've got two fellow panelists here, Shabir Bhik and Mr. Mondole. Both of them say that one of the problems perhaps that the BJP might encounter is that it doesn't have the machinery that Maab Banerjee commands.

[00:03:02]Do you think that at some level they're right or do you think that the BJP has built up its own Carter base and also has the muscle so to speak the stamina perhaps if you were to put a gentler term in play to take on the TMC?

[00:03:23]Well, I think if you look at it in purely organizational terms, you know, in terms of organizational muscle, in terms of political penetration into the grassroots, I think the thrum congress is way ahead of the BJP. I I I don't think even any I mean even as a BJP committed BJP person, I would be the first to say look BJP does not have the same strength on the ground that the Trinamul Congress has. But and I think I think this is very very important. What is the nature of this election? Is this n is this election if this election is going to be settled on the strength of uh you know issues which are basically grassroots which are local etc. I think the Trinamul Congress would have a phenomenal advantage. But I don't think this election is being settled on that those lines at all. From what I gather, it's turning out to be a blind referendum on how the Trinamul has behaved over the past 15 years. And when that happens, I think local organization fades in pales into the background. And I think it's a it's it's it's more a a sort of emotional vote which in which organization does not play a supreme I mean it doesn't play the paramount role and I think that's perhaps what is going to happen in this election when and we'll find out on May the 4th but that's >> Mr. Amit Sha came out before I hand back to Anand Mr. Amit came out and he gave a very specific number to the BJP stallion phase one. He said 110 or perhaps more.

[00:05:13]Now that's a massive leap over what you have got in the first phase of the last election in 2021 or even to be honest in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or even the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. uh what is he basing this on?

[00:05:35]>> Well, I I I don't know. I mean, I'm not privy to all the uh information which Amit Bai has culled from different sources. I mean, obviously it must be based on something. But I would without again going into the exact numbers which are always very problematic, you know, even the conversion of votes into seats very very problematic issues. I think here we would say that this is one of those elections where I think even in terms of the popular vote the BJP may well overtake the Trinamul Congress and that you know is is going to be it's it's it's something which is which was considered inconceivable given the demographics of West Bengal and the nature of the vote banks which the Trinamul Congress has we are seeing perhaps and I and I think I'll I'll reserve my full analysis till after the fourth but I think we are seeing a stupendous degree of Hindu consolidation what exactly it is going to be based on whether it's an anti-Muslim consolidation or it's an expression of something else is is I I I reserve judgment till May the 4th but I think we are seeing you know perhaps after Gujarat where you know 60% of the Hindus probably come together and vote. We may see something like that in West Bengal where about 58 to 60% of the Hindus will probably be voting for the BJP. If that happens if that happens as I my point then you know it marks a very new chapter in the in the electoral history of West Bengal. So again >> at this point I think it's west it's best to be a little tentative about everything.

[00:07:33]>> So swapenj what you're saying is that there will be at least a 15 to 18% jump in the Hindu vote towards the BJP compared to the past because that was about 40%. But in Rashbihari you you made a very interesting point in your first comment that there was a sentiment on ground.

[00:07:48]>> No no no ys I I don't agree with your statistics. The BJP in the last election got 52% of the Hindu vote.

[00:08:00]>> Okay.

[00:08:01]>> Of of the vote among the Hindus. Now I think that is going to go up to 5860.

[00:08:07]That it's >> so so 6 to 8% bump up is about a 5% vote share overall. But I want to understand what you gave as an insight that that the voter is coming not out of a support for BJP but because of an existential reason for Bengal. What made you say that or when did you realize that? Was that something that the BJP already picked up or that you realized when you went on ground as a candidate to campaign?

[00:08:32]>> No, no. You see there, you see the BJP was the only alternative to the uh Trinamul Congress despite all its imperfections, despite all its shortcomings etc. in West Bengal there was no one else to challenge the uh the Trinamul Congress apart from the BJP.

[00:08:51]Now that positioning as the foremost alternative to the trinamur has taken a lot of time to happen. It hasn't happened overnight and I think it's a process which began in 2019 and I think we're seeing its culmination in 2026.

[00:09:08]The other parties like the Congress or the CPM are not may have certain local resonance but they are not seen as an alternative to the CPM. I'm sorry to to the Trinamul Congress. The BJP is and yes >> there are questions about the BJP. I know lot a lot of people have some skepticism about various facets of the BJP. It's not an unqualified support but it's also it's it is an unqualified rejection of what the type of politics the Chernamul Congress has pursued in the past.

[00:09:46]>> What is your assessment of phase two?

[00:09:48]Phase one we've we've put out the numbers. Phase two is again historical turnout. Ra Raj Bihari itself has seen about a 15 to 18% up if not more in voter turnout itself. What is that reflective of?

[00:10:03]Well, it's a certainly a very, you know, it's it's you, you know, when you have a 15 to 18% jump in a constituency which has been the traditional part of the traditional stronghold of the Trinamul Congress, it obviously means that there is a churning which was uh which was not factored in by Mamta. You know one of the reasons why Ma you know campaigned so uh at at a very sort of micro level in neighboring Banipur is also due to that that there is a churning which was which they probably saw rather late in the day which they hadn't anticipated. Now look, I I I'm not going to uh go into what the uh every reason as to why this thing happened, but the but the point is >> it has happened that jump on that point >> on that point Mr. Das Gupta there is a view that some of these voters that have decided to once again enter the fray with the zeal that they've displayed bumping up these numbers to record levels. This is happening because of anger that there is or was a existential worry among certain voters who felt that they would have been disenfranchised had they not voted. So they came back with militant zeal from wherever they were out of state to vote and they are voting to basically punish the BJP on the sir.

[00:11:41]How do you respond to this?

[00:11:45]>> Well I I mean it's an it's an attractive hypothesis but it's not something which I've >> experienced on the ground. That's all I can say and May the fourth will tell you whether this visceral anger and I think you're right in identifying that there is anger but I feel that this anger is not about sir neither is it about meat or fish or something like that or or jalmuri or some uh something trivial on on that count it's basically an anger at the type of politics which the trinamul congress has pursued for the past 15 does it's a it's it's a type of anger against the extortion the the syndicates which have come up everywhere and it's an anger against the economic decline of Bengal which has been so marked I mean here you today we have cities like Kolkata is a prime example where the young people have more or less left the city it's a it's a city of old age pensioners >> you know who are see I who see there's a certain profound sadness which has which which is which marks the city I saw it in the booths today why it took so long why the Buddha people were talking about delay slow voting it was nothing else that so many old people actually coming in and voting that's what it is and it's that's the anger which is which is being expressed >> based on how the results then swing on the 4th of May then the task is also quite acute for whoever uh is decided the voter decides should govern Kolkata and Bengal going forward. So Aandas Gupta Gi all the very very best uh to you and it's been a hard road and and long hard yards in the hot sun for you.

[00:13:37]So >> rest recuperate and then perhaps celebrate on the 4th of May.

[00:13:42]>> Thank you. Thank you very much. Let's just pull that let's just pull that insight out and then take it to our panelists and then discuss Bengal in detail before we jump back into Tamunad around 9:30. Raj Shiv Shankar is with Manojit Mandal and Shubir Bhik. One left, one Trinamul. We've got the BJP element missing because JVL Narimra is just wicked and he'll come back in a