LATEST FORECAST: Severe storms, flood risk could disrupt Memorial Day plans

Added: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Certified most accurate [music] four-zone weather with chief meteorologist Chris Suchan.

[00:00:08]We are mighty glad it is dry out here at the Frost Bank Center for game three of the Western Conference Finals.

[00:00:15]>> But don't mistake it. It is also hot outside. We're in the shade. There's a little bit of a breeze right now.

[00:00:20]>> He's been drying his face off.

[00:00:22]>> It's a little sweaty out here, but we're having a whole bunch of fun. Of course, tip-off is set for just a couple of hours away, less than two hours away.

[00:00:28]Such, we're okay with this weather right now in the park.

[00:00:30]>> That's right. Hey, listen. It's a little stuffy out there. I get it, Jonathan and Mandy. That's because of the rain we've had here, but we're keeping it below 90 in town. And of course, for those are going indoors, climate-controlled 72 for the game and maybe your watch party indoors. All right, here we go.

[00:00:44]Four-zone weather watchers, we do have Kathy Griffin here in Castroville with 87 along with Danny in Lake Hills and Dave Rogers Ranch, 87 degrees, pretty popular number. 88 in shirts and 90 there at the Pearsall from Ron Guyer.

[00:00:56]Now, we hit a high today of 85 in San Antonio. Raul B. Rodriguez is lot weather cam view. These are all little fair-weather clouds and then those are the tops of thunderstorms from Mexico paying us a visit in our western zone.

[00:01:07]So, here's tomorrow. The rain chance for your planning purposes. I do have a 30% in the morning, can't rule it out. And then in the middle of the day, it's a scattered chance, 50-60% chance. So, if you have the outdoor plans, you'll make sure you have our four-zone weather app with you. It's a free download just in case you see darker skies. You want to check radar. Maybe you have to you have to take it in because of a shower storm is going to be moving by. Sunday, not much of a rain chance for part of the day. And then it does go up later in the afternoon, evening to a scattered 30-40% chance. And then really, not much of a chance for Memorial Day Monday. I know this watch goes to Memorial Day, but I think Monday is going to be just fine.

[00:01:40]So, it's tonight, Saturday, and Sunday.

[00:01:42]One thing I do want to point out is this does not guarantee every county in here is going to see flooding. It's because we've had so much rain through this week, you know, day in and day out adding up that any thunderstorm now that moves over, the sensitivity level to the soils and prone to flooding is is a little higher. So, this is a precautionary flood watch that'll be with us here for the weekend. And this is one reason why. This is Bear County in and around Bear County. This is how much rain we have seen this week. And you can see it's generally an inch and a half to over three, almost 4 inches of rain. And so, now if you put more downpours on this here, the chance to get a little flooding is a little higher. This is our next weather maker, this little disturbance right here. It's an upper low. It's going to be moving over us Saturday and Sunday. And that provides the lift on the atmosphere to get thunderstorms going. You see how it's trying to do that now out to our west. And when we zoom this in, all right, we have a little bit of a rain chance here to the east. And then closer into the Rio Grande, watching these thunderstorms with some interest and a batch up here to the north. So, this is our graph model. It is attempting to bring in a little line of some storms in tonight. And that's very late in the evening. And then not much in the little morning. This is the her computer model.

[00:02:49]It does hold those storms a little bit better from Mexico coming into Eagle Pass to Del Rio. And then they do weaken as they move east, but they would be holding together long enough to pay us a visit. And then you see in the morning we could have a shower or thunderstorm in this model. That's my 30% chance.

[00:03:04]Notice again, not a washout, but at any point in here you could get some heavy downpours. And that's at 60% chance. And we do have a level one out of five severe weather risk that we could can't we'll have a storm out there Saturday that might have wind gusts and some hail.

[00:03:17]So, 82 degrees, you see that rain chance. Weather alert day still my forecast for Saturday. Not bothering with weather alert day on Sunday. 85.

[00:03:25]There's Memorial Day. It's hot, sticky, 88 degrees. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, I feel we'll see a round of some storms come through. So, I do have a weather alert for Tuesday night into part of Wednesday.

[00:03:36]And then we're around 90 degrees late next week with a 20% rain chance.

[00:03:39]Western zone, a scattering of showers or thunderstorm possible over your Saturday and Sunday. Hill Country, we'll keep that weather alert day in for tomorrow.

[00:03:47]Next Tuesday night into Wednesday as well. And here's our Eastern zone with those scattered chances into the weekend. Now, we'll send it back out to Jonathan and Mandy at the Frost Bank Center. Thank you.