This segment provides a rare, lucid breakdown of meteorological nuance that prioritizes public literacy over typical news sensationalism. It successfully transforms a routine alert into a sophisticated lesson on the probabilistic nature of modern forecasting.
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Severe T-Storm Watch Posted For TonightAdded:
Hey guys, haven't seen you in a while.
We thought, you know what? We've been gone for >> forever, >> 12 hours.
So, let's do a WDRB weather here.
Welcome to WDRB Weather Live tonight.
Um, with another severe thunderstorm watch posted for our area. Obviously, a slam dunk here to do another video. We asked if people were interested. We got a resounding yes. Um we'll go through the concept of the watch, what we think about the watch, what we think about severe weather potential to uh for tonight. Last night, Rick, we did between the afternoon and the night six streams.
>> I mean, I don't I kind of lost track between were we on TV or were we streaming. I know.
>> It all kind of just melted together in my brain. So, >> and we did something unique last night.
I don't know if it had been done before.
But we really blended what is a stream, what's a YouTube live, what's a uh a Facebook live, what's a Tik Tok live with what goes on on TV. And we're able to seamlessly go from StudioC into our other studio, do our live tornado coverage, and then come back in here.
And we learned a couple of things when we were doing that last night to make it a little bit easier in the future.
>> And we appreciate everyone being so understanding.
>> They were helpful, too. You were helpful. I mean, this was, >> like I said, you know, we can't do this without you. and we really appreciated everyone's patience and us kind of finding our way. But it was something that I've never been a part of. I don't know if it's been done before. Um, but it was cool and it also it gave you guys >> a chance just to see how we go about getting ready to go on television.
>> I think that's actually a really good point. We kind of just are blending what's traditional broadcast into the streaming and you know where one ends and one begins. It's it's it's interesting >> because actually one, you know, a lot of a lot of those streams are just one thing.
>> Exactly. Right.
>> So, this is this is kind of a combination of the two where you get the best of best of both worlds. And >> you might need this, by the way.
>> What do I have?
>> Oh, I've been looking for that. You don't have any rubber band. There's no rubber bands on. I took them off before because I was >> got some rest.
>> I was shamed. It was funny, but >> it was funny, but it wasn't. Um, so what we have is another severe thunderstorm watch here for tonight. For all of our Facebook followers, first, thank you for joining. I've had a lot of new followers in the last day. Please continue. If you don't follow Rick's page, please do.
Remember, by doing that, you get an alert when we go live. Obviously, you're here because you enjoy the lives, but by liking our page, getting the alert makes it easier for you to know. Um, share the video. This is an important one because what happens is you may have friends or family that are in this watch. You may have friends or family that are not in the watch wondering, should they be in the watch? You may have some friends and family that have drank an enormous amount of caffeine today because they're exhausted from last night and they don't want to stay awake all night tonight.
>> So, I didn't think you're going to say caffeine.
>> Nothing. I I mean, I'm for one, I'm on a lot of caffeine, just in case you haven't been able to tell the energy drink in the back.
>> I I noticed that you made a transition from tea over to energy drinks lately.
When did this happen?
>> It happened once once spring came around.
>> That's fair. I I feel like you know and we haven't truthfully really haven't had an intense crazy spring there.
>> There's three weeks where we kind of had a little bit then we we just set it down >> and then basically when you know once you start going it's usually a couple days back to back which is what we're seeing out there today. But I know a lot of people are probably saying well I would like to go to bed tomorrow go to go to bed tonight Mark and not have to worry about severe weather.
>> And I would say you're smart and I would love to be able to tell you that you can do that. So, that was what we would like to give you the answer to, >> whether you can go to bed on time tonight and not be awaken at 3:00 in the morning with infinitely rumbling thunder, um, tornado warnings. So, it was a tough day yesterday.
>> Yeah. And it's just it's uneasy for people. I'm sure you're a little bit groggy out there. Um, but, you know, we got that rain and we really, really needed it >> 100%. So, we get some more beneficial rain tonight, but obviously you're like, "Well, beneficial rain, does that require us to go through another round of severe storms." And you probably noticed, you know, if you're watching TV at all, WDRB, we have that crawl at the bottom of the screen.
>> Yeah. Showing the watch.
>> Showing the watch of five counties under that watch. And it isn't until 2 o'clock in the morning.
>> I know. When I saw the time, I was I'm not going to lie, there was a a little bit of me that >> deflated.
>> Yeah. You could I could feel the air sucked out of me a little bit, but at the same time, I mean, um Rick and I both say the same thing on this one.
>> This is what we do for a living. We signed up to do this. Um it's it's it's hard >> to get in the car and leave sometimes when you know that there's thunderstorms. I mean, it's just what we do. So, um we're going to regardless of how this unfolds tonight, we'll be watching the storms as necessary. If there's a risk of severe, we're going to be on top of things. So, again, please share the video, friends, family, if you're one of our YouTube followers. And last night was some really really wild numbers on YouTube. We had a lot a lot more people on there than we had in prior videos. Just subscribe if you get on our YouTube page. That way you know when we go live. So what I want to start with, Rick, is first off I want to give massive credit to the weather service.
They like us covered severe weather until 4 four o'clock in the morning basically and then some went to bed, some didn't. Um, and then they went out and did damage surveys today on top of the fact that there was another severe weather risk with another watch being issued for tonight and they did all that and they did it effectively and got the job done and they deserve a lot of credit. So, what we're going to show you here in terms of the findings from the National Weather Service again are from the National Weather Service surveyors.
So, we know that um near Miller's Town uh EF0's tornado touchdown with 80 mph winds. This was about two and a half football fields wide. We mentioned this a lot yesterday, Rick. Short track that we would see kind of quick spins, not long duration, not powerful tornadoes.
EF0 mile long, 60 seconds on the ground, maybe 90 seconds.
>> Kind of fits the bill, doesn't it? And this one again in the Hart County area and we were watching this storm move across. Uh it was on the ground for about a mile. Uh we got a lot of pictures coming in of, you know, and reports of trees getting knocked down.
Um roads being blocked, power outages specifically became a big deal, especially actually not down here, but a lot in the metro. And that has to do with the fact that we now have leaves on all the trees, which means anytime we get severe weather, you're likely to see a lot more damage being done for that simple reason than that one alone. Um the trees haven't changed any since we had the earlier spring storms. They just without leaves there's not that drag for those winds to catch. Now that we have leaves, expect when we have severe weather to see some more damage being reported. Then unfortunately power outages are like the main thing that happens. And we use that. It's pretty cool because Mark's created this map where we have the metro and we will recognize a storm potentially doing damage and then that potential becomes reality when we actually see the numbers jump up in terms of power outages. So, it's a real perfect way kind of in real time to see the storms doing damage. And we, you know, hate to see storms doing damage, but it allows us to have more confidence in saying, "Okay, well, this has a history of doing damage and will most likely continue as it tracks whatever direction it's going."
>> And when we did did the power outage map, our our our concept was is like I'm going to use an example. When we have a tornado warning and we see debris being lofted, we now can and elevate the wording to this is a tornado that could be happening to this is a tornado doing damage. Our belief is that escalation of the verbiage there helps you to plan a little bit more. Is this something that could happen? Is this something that is happening? And so when it comes down then to severe thunderstorms, we tried to think through how can we do the same?
Well, is there any way to know that a storm is doing damage? Well, if we have eyes everywhere and we could see every single tree in the area and we're like, obviously we can't do that. So, we then from there went to what else could we possibly do? And we came up with the idea that if there's severe thunderstorms doing damage, you're going to get power outages.
>> And so, we then quickly realized that this is the real time way to say this is a storm that could be doing damage versus this is a storm that is doing damage. So, um, 80 mph winds were the winds on this tornado in Millertown.
Some might say, Mark Rick, that's pretty similar to what a tornado would do sometimes if it's weak. You got it. And I'm going to show you an area where we had 80 mph straight line winds. That was near the Greensburg area. This at the time last night looked like it could be a weak tornado. Um, or could be straight line winds. Weather service found it as straight line winds. We have no problems with that. We know that they got down there and surveyed this. Right. This one is an interesting one, Rick. So, we were on the phone last night. Um, we didn't say who, and we're not going to say now, but, we were on the phone with somebody last night that we know understands weather and they were telling us that it was one of the more intense thunderstorms that they had ever seen.
Now, we know why they said that because there was 90 mph winds that was stronger than the EF near Millertown, >> right? And this is this is straight line wind damage, which is why we say time and time again, it doesn't matter if it's twisting or it's straight, damage is damage. And this was one of those situations where if you have 90s, I mean, hurricane force winds start at 74.
>> These are beasts.
>> These are very these are destructive winds. I mean, that 90s, >> that's no good. This was around the Crestwood area and the >> populated area.
>> Yep. Ballersville. So, it was there were there were people >> to experience that. You know, sometimes this happens in the middle of nowhere.
this was not the case this time around.
>> So, lastly, we're going to take you up to um around Courtland. Um this is in the northern part of Jackson County.
This was another smaller tornado, EF1.
This was the strongest of them all, 105 mph winds. This was only a football fieldwide on the ground for about 2.1 miles, which would put it on the ground from a a perspective of time at about maybe 90 seconds. Actually, let me call that maybe 150 seconds. So, these were not long tornadoes. These are short track. Um, but look, you know, if a tornado hits your house, who cares how long it's on the ground? It's not good.
So, the first thing that we want to answer is I can guarantee you we will get this question. Mark and Rick, tell me, is this going to be as bad as last night?
Second, well, >> close.
>> Isn't there parts of our area that are in the same under the same slight risk as last night? Yeah.
>> Well, how can you have a slight risk last night that produces warnings in 80 to 90% of the area versus tonight it's the same risk, the same watch, and you're saying that there's going to be a different number of warnings?
This is why I'm going to just say this.
we have gotten into the severe risk category and being hyper analytical and hyperfocused and hyper local that we have introduced more confusion than we would have otherwise. And what I mean by that is an enhanced should obviously have a lot more warnings than a slight.
How can a slight have some have no warnings and some have a ton ton of warnings? And it it is a disconnect. I still think that a lot of the world does it better than we do. They do a red, orange, um, and and, um, green. Um, meaning, you know, not that bad, bad, really bad. I think we all react well >> to the red, orange. You know, I, if I was to do this, I would do a yellow, I would do an orange, and I would do a magenta.
>> Yeah, >> I would do a threecolor system because I think that people really get that. Um, but we really have to get away from this concept of we have so many categories now and yet even with all the categories we're getting this not infrequently that you're under the same category of risk and one produced a ton more warnings.
What I would say to you, I'm not going to say ignore the risk because I think that we wouldn't show it'd be a bad idea to say that. But what I will say is listen us, you guys have in us um expertise in meteorologists that have gone to school, that have expertise in this, studied it, and we're going to tell you, we told you yesterday we would get warnings.
>> We told you yesterday we would get tornado warnings. We told you when I was on a 10 and you were on an 11, there will be more warnings tonight. We said, we're not thinking there will be. There will be. We said that boundary would be a focal mechanism to generate rotation.
produced a tornado in Ohio County, produced a tornado in Hart County, went on to produce the damage near the the Greensburg area. We really, I think, did what we needed to in terms of letting you know what to expect. And uh despite the fact that we're under the same risk tonight, come to us, trust us, and let us tell you what to expect because I think when you get done with this, you're going to understand here. So Rick, we have a watch until 2 a.m. You mentioned this. It's not our whole area.
No, it it's five counties, Hart, Marian, Taylor Green, and Adair County under that severe thunderstorm watch. Um, >> no warnings.
>> There's no warnings. The storms the storms are getting closer >> and there's I say storms maybe loosely, showers, rain, and storms.
>> Let's go. Let's look at that, you know, because after we we'll view the the other things here. Let me I The order I have on that is not radar yet. So, let me let you finish. Sorry.
>> Okay. So, we're like we kind of just alluded to uh in terms of level of preparedness, worrying, preparation, this is not going to be anything like last night in terms of warnings. In fact, there's a possibility. We may not see any. I'm not saying that we won't see a couple, but the number of warnings, the sheer volume is going to be far, far less compared to last night.
Last night's a different scenario, different animal, different storm, and we saw that line. When you took into account the boundary and the line west, we knew those two together would produce more warnings. What we're seeing right now is a sign that, you know, this this may be an underachiever when all is said and done. Um, but that's the point I was maybe overrisked, >> right? But that's, you know, that's that's what we're here to do. We're here to take what we have, tell you what we think and what we see, and then you take that information and, you know, go about your night. So, what I want to show you is the tornado threat here. 2% chance of a tornado every where basically near the river and south. Would I have included Louisville and a 2%? I would not have.
Um, where would I have put this?
>> I would have probably gone from near Paduka, land between the lakes into Tennessee. I wouldn't include our area.
Um, I not saying it's zero, >> but I am telling you I don't think it meets the probability. I don't think it meets the criteria.
The science isn't there for a 2%. In the damaging wind category, they have a 5% for Louisville, 15% south. Um, and Rick, we'll just touch on this briefly. The Blue Lick is now out of flood stage.
East Fork of the White, >> you live near the East Fork of the White, you know exactly it floods every spring. It literally >> is a guarantee, right?
>> Flood plane so wide on this thing. Um, you drive 65 and go through basically Seymour. You drive over, you know where you know where that flood plane is. It floods literally every single year. East Fork of the White from Seymour, Rivervale through Bedford under a warning here. And the rain amounts were substantial.
The southern part of our area is where the worst drought is. And I know that they are thanking Hallelujah.
>> I are so happy for that rain and I don't blame you one bit. So Rick, >> there's radar. Um it looks like some rain and some thunder. That looks actually some nice rain. Um, >> yeah, >> that doesn't look like last night.
>> No. Um, they're two different animals. I mean, there's there's rain, there's lightning.
>> Okay.
>> Uh, you know how we always like to look for those pops of red, those real intense bright colors?
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
>> I'm not seeing a lot of that. I see a lot of yellow.
>> I see some yellow in there. I see some orange.
>> There's some orange. Uh, >> that may be a orange reddish, but maybe that that one crayon that you used to have the orange red color. Do you remember that one?
>> The orange red.
>> It wasn't like an orange.
>> You say crayon or crown?
>> I say crayon. How do you say it? I say cran. I don't know.
>> Some I think Well, we grew up in the same area, but there are people that say crayon.
>> Cray. Well, yeah. I just I'm >> Do you say cray as in C R A I N or >> I just say crayon because it's the fastest laziest way.
>> I know. I know. Well, I'm going to tell you this. Before I got into TV, I used to say library.
>> Library.
>> I used to say library and my and then a news director got on me and said, "What did you say?"
>> Well, how are you using the word library and >> I was just saying library and I said library and they said that's not and then another one. Do you say February or do you say February?
>> February.
>> That you said that too quick.
>> That's what that's the whole purpose. If I say it fast enough, no one can stop me.
>> Okay. So, uh, but what we have here, we got off on the crayon and we we detailed we we detourred. But the point is, >> it's not hyper intense.
>> It's not. There's lightning, there's rain.
>> That's convective rain. But when you look for severe, you look for cells or you look for a line. You don't look for masses, >> right?
>> And that is very clearly a mass of rain, which is so so different from what we would expect if we were going to see severe weather.
>> Well, if we were looking at this, we would expect if we were thinking about severe, we would expect to see warnings up and down this line.
>> Let's Let's look. Fair enough. Let's see where they are.
There's one one warning north of Little Rock. It goes through Memphis. Um, I'm going to just say this.
The watch, I don't know why they felt the need to issue it when no warnings had been issued in this particular region, >> right?
>> Why not give it a moment >> to get a sense of where we are? What we know on this one is the lowle flow in particular is really really really weak until about 5:00 a.m. It's already going to have rained at that point.
>> Now this is until 2 a.m. And you may be saying, "Well, they're not doing this for the front line. Maybe they're doing it for what goes on behind it." And let's let's talk then.
>> So I'm going to put this in motion. What is to me the most telling of everything is there was a very severe storm right here that came out of southern Missouri.
Rick, what happened to that storm when it got behind the rain?
>> I mean, just demolished itself. It it it's now buried. It's amongst the other rain and thunderstorm action. It fell apart.
>> Doesn't even have lightning on it.
>> I mean, it's basically it's basically a gusty shower at this point. If if there's any wind inside of there.
>> So, this brings up the obvious question here. Is that the fate of the storms that are over Arkansas right now?
Because that rain's way ahead of them.
>> Well, that that gap is not is not doing you any good. I We're talking about >> and look at the trajectory on this.
>> It's going to >> So, this brings up some very, very obvious questions. Why was the watch issued? Should the watch have been issued? All we're going to do, we can't get inside the storms prediction center's head. That is not something that we have in our toolback uh toolbox.
So what we're going to do is we're going to just show you the information and give you our expert analysis of this. So in Louisville, should Louisville be in the watch 73 with a due point of 60? I think we're going to both say the same answer. I'm not going to look at you.
I'm not going to say anything. You first. Nope. No. The reason no due points are too low. Air temperatures are not that bad. Stratopform rains coming in our direction. Some convective level.
It's not impressive. Let's go south.
Etown. Etown is sitting at 70 with a D point of 65. Oh, the D point's higher.
>> The D point's higher. But the temperature is three to four degrees colder, right?
>> Why? Why is the temperature three to four degrees colder? Because the cloud mass from the rain that's over southwest Kentucky land between the lakes moved into Etown quicker, cooled it off. What will happen now? Rain will try to drive ahead of that. It will start to drop some spits that will evaporate a little bit. That will cool that atmosphere even more. Well, that can be that can be overcome, Rick. We see this all the time when rain gets in here on these strong systems. It gets so windy that it keeps those temperatures high. And Rick, that wind out there right now is one.
>> So, we don't have resistance.
>> We don't have something in the atmosphere that can work against the rain cooling the air, that can work against the sun setting. This is very different from what we saw last night.
Corin outside right now. You're sitting at 70 with a D point of 63. Not ultra warm due point marginal in Seymour.
>> Yeah, that ain't happening.
>> It's not going to cut it. Nope.
>> So, we then get to the point here where we need to look at where these D points are a little bit higher. But it clearly becomes obvious that there's something going on here that says D points are not enough. And we'll come back to this, but the due points alone, Rick, if you're to assess where the fuel is, you go from Hardensburg, Etown to Springfield and South, you can see where those higher due points are.
>> Yeah, it's a little juicier down there.
And north to south, there's a gradient.
>> Wow. You can actually see where those denser clouds have moved in. Um, Munfordville, Campbellville down to the 70s.
>> Like I said, the south has the better chance of seeing a stronger storm because the due points are higher. Mhm.
>> But that's the chance I the atmosphere isn't telling us anything that we should be overly concerned about.
>> So Rick, um, severe thunderstorm watch, what does it mean when when one is issued? What's why would they be issued?
Is there a condition? What does it mean?
I >> I mean, watches and warnings, I hate to say this, um, you know, it's it's basically a watch is you have all the ingredients ready to go to make something, >> but that's it. Everything's >> I mean, I could say, you know, whatever you want. tacos. You like want it's taco Tuesday.
>> So you have all this stuff for tacos.
You have ground beef, you have your tomatoes, your lettuce, your sour cream, your taco shells.
>> That's the watch. Everything's prepared.
The warning is >> you have tacos.
>> Okay, so that's kind of explaining how we get from watch into warning. And I find this one interesting. What does a tornado watch mean? Conditions are favorable >> for the gen generation of tornadoes.
Severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms.
One has to wonder, are they really favorable?
>> I mean, do we meet that definition?
>> So, well, let's let you tuck that and we'll come back to that. So, I'm going to show you the fuel.
>> Why does it drop off near Bowling Green?
It's raining. It's literally raining. So that little nose on the front of that rain that doesn't show any burm hard um it doesn't show a rock solid front to it. It doesn't look like a line. It doesn't look like a squall line.
>> No organization really.
>> Exactly. Is coming in and it's nuking the fuel. I'm not we're not saying there's not some fuel because you can see 820 in Frankfurt. What we're telling you is we blow that away by 10.
>> It erases it. It blows it away and it blows it away without having a squall line. It's more of rain and thunderstorms. Again, if you're asking our conditions favorable, what I want to show you is going on this fuel into the overnight. We never regenerate.
>> That's it.
>> Right.
>> So, this then brings up, Rick, this has been your area focus where those storms are right now. Are those winds adequate in the lower levels? Not, we're not talking about what's going on six miles above the ground. We're talking about the lowest part of the atmosphere.
Is that mean what we would expect?
>> Well, I'm looking for 40s. That's my eye has been trained to look for 40s and I don't see a single one. The closest is that 31 down around Bowling Green. 23 miles per hour in Etown, 24 in Campbell.
So, those are winds a mile above the ground. So, no, I do not see any sort of wind energy to support >> a favorable environment for the generous genesis of severe thunderstorms.
>> Well, I mean, Rick, let's let's be clear. I mean, this is one time. Maybe maybe it's different later. Let's Let's advance this.
>> See what you got. Okay. 1:00 in the morning.
>> But there's no fuel. I thought >> exactly. Well, hold on. Hold on.
The wind is coming up after midnight.
>> But the rain is nuking the is nuking the fuel. One can go up and the other one goes down.
>> We're not overlapping the conditions.
Severe thunderstorm watch conditions are favorable for the generation of severe thunderstorms.
This to me doesn't look like it meets that definition.
>> No. And especially through 2 a.m.
because I feel like that's the point where the winds actually start to come up and then that's when the fuel is completely gone.
>> That's interesting. So from here, what do we think is going to happen? I'm going to show you the data here because I want you to take a look at the now. A couple things I want you to note here is there is erroneous thunderstorms near Etown that do not exist. Secondly, there is that convective mass of junk that has great rain and it's have some thunder and lightning and you know we I you know one thing that was eye opening to me last night is a number of questions kept coming in last night despite the fact that we said the worst is passed you. We kept hearing people ask the same question in my town. Is it over? Is it over? And we would say, "Well, yeah, it's left your area." Then they would say, "Well, market's thundering and lightning and my house is shaking."
>> And what I started to realize is that >> we kept trying to tell people there wasn't going to be severe. And what they kept hearing is rumbling of thunder. So, I I thought it's worth at least mentioning this. When we do these videos, we're not going to tell you whether this is bad or not bad because that is only up to you to decide. What we're trying to tell you is this the kind of thunderstorm it's going to do damage. Not that might make you afraid because I really realized last night that there were people that were afraid because the house was rumbling. They were hearing the rumbles of thunder.
They were feeling their house shake.
>> But what we were then trying to say is look, we don't think you're going to get damage now. There's no chance of hail that's going to damage your roof, damage your car. We don't see winds that are going to knock down trees. And they kept saying is when's it going to end? And I think I kind of realized really quickly that perception is a big big big deal in this.
>> It is. A storm is a storm for some people whether it's severe or whether it's just thundering lightning. I mean some people if you're just inside the house and not really observing looking out the window maybe you can't tell the difference. But we we're trying to give you the green light saying okay there will no there will not be any more severe storms which means you can go to bed and not have to worry. But unfortunately >> people were still you know just the fact they heard thunder.
>> Exactly. we felt that no, I can't go to bed because it's thundering. So, >> um, what we're addressing here is is is this going to be severe? I want to remind you on the top right part of your screens the time. Again, I want to note that the Etown stuff is erroneous.
Secondly, the mass of rain is there in the land between the lakes. So, let's disregard what it shows near Hardensburg and Etown at 9 and let's focus on the mass behind it.
It doesn't look like um much. It just kind of looks like rain.
>> Yeah.
>> With some rumbles of thunder coming across Syria. And in fact, um that's basically taking the fuel away.
We know. We know.
>> Know >> on what we saw that after 8 there is no fuel.
>> Just goes away. And you're looking at future radar. You don't see any purples.
You don't see any hail cores.
>> It's 11 o'clock. Um >> that's rain. That's I mean those are showers.
>> That's Yeah, that I'm not I'm not seeing it there. Um >> there's a little steady rain.
>> I mean it looks good at 1:30 for rain. I mean, I'm enjoying that.
>> Um, but are you going to get severe weather with temperature of 60? Um, well, here's the thing.
>> The wind energy does come up a little bit after midnight. One of the things we know is storms are less um protected.
Um, they they are they are more vulnerable when they don't have much fuel against a 60 mph mid-level wind and a lot of times it knocks them over.
Could some gusts occur? Yeah. I mean, a rogue, sure. Um, but again, we come back to the same question. are conditions favorable for severe weather. Let's be honest here. The watch has expired now at 2 o'clock in the morning.
>> Um, so this doesn't even cover this rain that's coming through at 4 at 5 at 6 and then you can see that rain exiting our area. So we've got a severe Yeah. One thing I'm going to just say about this is I do feel sometimes with slight SPC has become very robotic and sometimes it feels it feels that they're going to verify wherever they put the risk out. They put the risk out in the southern part of our area and I'm just going to now place over that there is the risk and here comes the watch. It's literally with the exception of Grayson County >> the exact area. So, we're under a severe thunderstorm watch.
Um, I'm just going to go ahead and say the what I feel on this. We shouldn't be under a severe thunderstorm watch.
>> I agree.
>> I'm going to tell you that I have shown you this isn't exclusivity. We don't own this data.
>> Everything we've shown you, every scientist has access to this, including the storms prediction center. We have shown you unequivocably that after about 10, the fuel is nuked. We have shown you that the the there's not enough organization in there to generate a lot of severe. We have shown you that when the winds come up after midnight, we've already obliterated the fuel. So now we don't have the conditions overlapping, which then makes me wonder, how do you issue the same severe thunderstorm watch, the same slight risk that generated severe in virtually every one of our area and probably will generate none or maybe one or two in the southern part of our area.
And if you out there are listening, I'm under a severe thunderstorm watch. I was under a slight yesterday. I should expect the same thing as yesterday.
We're not telling you you're wrong.
We're telling you that we agree with you. We're telling you is behind the scenes we can't do this. We can't tell people it's the same watch, the same risk, and get almost every county under a warning on one and none under the other. Because what people are going to say, Mark, is which slight risk is it?
Rick, which severe thunderstorm watch is it?
>> Well, especially I mean when the days are back to back, it's a little it's harder to ignore. If you had a couple weeks in between, you may have forgotten a little bit. your memor is not as good.
But when you have one day next to the other and you're looking at them, it's a really it's a really tough comparison to swallow. It's it's hard to understand.
So what Mark's trying to say is if you are under a watch, while you might see an isolated >> Yeah.
>> strong to severe storm, chances are you're not and you're just going to see some good soaking rainfall that we're going to take. That's the area that needs the most when it comes to rain, a good drink of water. We just got one last night. Now, obviously, hopefully we don't sort of see any renewed flooding issues, but the intensity of the rain is also not in the same category as last night either.
>> Spread over more hours.
>> It spread over more hours. The ground a little bit. So, now you get Yeah.
There's so much that rain off yesterday because the ground I mean, it's like >> You got it.
>> It was like this table is trying to pour water into this table when the ground is that hard and that dry. Yeah. And everything just electrocutes.
That's the last thing. I didn't even move it to the middle cuz you would I would we would bump or Yes, >> I did clean it up. There was an incident. We'll just refer to it as the incident that shall remain nameless where a water cup did somehow flip over.
I don't know how it happened. I think there may be a ghost in Studio C.
>> I'm just glad it wasn't me.
>> I think there might be a ghost.
>> Maybe we get those ghost hunters in here.
>> I think I think it's possible. And it somehow flipped the water over. I don't know how it happened. I had to run out of the studio. I had to run and get some paper towels. You continued the video. I came back in here, wiped the table down, and let me just say, the table looks better than it's overlooked. Um, but that may or may not have happened. Um, we'll just refer that as an incident that shall remain nameless. Um, but yeah, you're right, Rick.
Excuse me.
That rain was hitting a rock yesterday.
>> Wasn't going to go in there. Um, so just, you know, we love I kind of try to monitor questions just in case there's something really imperative that comes in that I feel like it's a good topic.
Timothy Walt or West >> Timothy West just said, "Will the lightning even be close to last night?
Last night was good question a strobe show. It was those storms were electric." No, we're going to see some lightning. You will you will definitely hear the thunder. It's not going to be to the same degree. We had at one time I think it was >> was about,200 units of instability last, >> right? And I think like 3,000 something lightning strikes.
>> But you you had 1,200 units of instability. You've got like 5 to 800 tonight and that is blown away by 10.
>> So cut the instability. Cut the lightning. They go hand in hand. Yes, you'll hear some thunder. No, it's not going to be the lightning show that we had last night. And Darla, no, I don't have any rubber bands on either.
>> Thank you, Darla, for asking. Very obvious question here. You can see right there in the middle of the question there, Darla Watts. Thank you, >> Darla.
>> Um, I think Darla was being very honest with us tonight, Rick, and just really speaking from the heart tonight. And, uh, >> I appreciate that. So, somebody's asking about um by the way, before we go into full-on questions here, let me just remind you first if you're joining us in the Facebook live, please thank you for joining us. If you enjoy these videos, please like, please throw a heart on the screen. Um please um like our page so you get alerts when we go live. If you're on our YouTube group here, please make sure you subscribe. We do a lot of weather here. Sometimes we have a little fun.
>> Probably going to add a little telescope fun in here at some point. Um, we're going to do some more interviews here >> with some in the community. Um, and we, you know, we are hardcore Mets >> that love analyzing severe weather. We don't like the results, but we do like to be able to help you with it. So, please like and share. And now, we'll spend our time here completely on questions. Rick, here's a great question coming in. Um, this one's from Ellie on uh YouTube. She says, "I still believe the rubber bands on the sleeve was a good idea." See, Ellie, I appreciate that you you you've made my heart whole.
>> She validates. That was validation.
>> Listen, if there's a shirt on sale, >> he's buying it.
>> You're I'm buying it. It's It's a deal.
>> Simple. Doesn't matter if it doesn't matter. It's going to fit me at some point in time in my life. So, >> and just put the rubber bands on and make it fit.
>> I just I just You know, it's funny because I had them for my takeout. I was like, "Oh, just throw these on there."
And now I start >> You didn't know where I was going.
>> I didn't I I I was like, "What is he I was looking I was like, "What is he gonna say?" I was like, "What?" And I'm I'm thinking myself self-conscious like look around my hair right now.
>> Yeah. Like what what what did I forget?
And then I'm of course Yeah, it was the rubber bands. But I >> if you missed it last night, yeah, it was the rubber bands. Somebody's asking what the rubber band story is. So let's just briefly touch. So Rick Duca sometimes, not all the time, if he bought some shirts on sale, there will be sometimes where the sleeves are not the perfect size. So Rick, because you never see what's underneath you. So you got a suit on.
>> I know. But see, they're kind of long.
Even these ones.
>> So, what he does is he put the rubber band on the sleeve to pull the sleeve up a little bit. He kind of went ultimate warrior.
>> I feel I feel like the ultimate it's kind of >> sometimes he like you'll hear him back there. He's kind of shaking things around back there. Um but yeah, so he forgot. He normally takes those off obviously when he finishes the newscast.
And yesterday he forgot because we had done six lives yesterday. We were exhausted. We were literally exhausted.
>> I mean truth is we we've been so exhausted. forgot to give Mark his like sometimes he'll run out and we'll grab dinner and he's like I'll just grab me something too so I'll grab some food for us. I went home and I was like oh no I had Mark's credit card. I didn't use it.
I was like don't worry it's safe but I wanted to let you know. I was like yeah that uh that's how crazy it's been a little crazy lately that >> it has but that's the rubber band story in case >> that's the rubber band story. Sorry I got to a different story.
>> We have deviated a little bit here. What we want to do now is open it up to Q&A.
Honestly, you guys know our lives, anything's game. But of course, if you have any questions about severe, one thing I would always remind you is the questions come across real fast at times. So, don't feel bad asking the question more than once. We're not ignoring you. We'll do our best to get to everyone that we can. Um, Murray, Kentucky, near the college. Um, so the southern part of Kentucky is where we have the watch. Uh, I'm going to tell you that I think in southern Kentucky while you're under a watch, personally, I would not have issued that watch. I think that you can make a very solid case that per definition of watch conditions favorable for the generation of severe thunderstorms. We don't meet that criteria. Could a rogue severe occur? Yes. What would be the main threat if we get a rogue severe? Gusty winds, some hail. Um, we don't think we're going to get a lot of warnings though. So, um, it's a great question.
We do appreciate that. I, you know, one of the things I'm starting to notice a little more is it's not just our viewing area. We have seen that these lives have become something more of a Kentucky weather and Indiana weather. Obviously, we can touch on Nashville weather, Ohio weather, Illinois. We've kind of seen that this is expanding and growing into the area. So, >> speaking of that, here's a question for you. This is from Mikey King. How is Somerset looking tonight?
>> Okay, let's do that one to prove the point. That one's yours, Rick. Somerset, Kentucky.
>> So, Somerset, Kentucky. You're you're looking at something very similar to what we're having here. And that's just that's rain and storms. I mean, the rain that you have I believe is you got rain right now.
>> Let me just double check.
>> But yeah, I don't I don't anticipate any severe weather for you in Somerset.
>> Um, you know, >> rain, thunder, lightning. I guess I guess we want to be extra cautious just to, you know, make sure that we're not >> misleading you. But that rain that's now along and south of the western Kentucky Bluegrass Parkway, that is spreading in your direction.
>> Yeah.
>> And that's going to just really >> cool the atmosphere down, stabilize things, let it chill out, which means as the wind energy comes up later on tonight into tomorrow morning, while that's still going to produce some more rain, maybe some rumbles of thunder. Not concerned with severe weather for you.
So hopefully that can help put you at ease there, Mikey.
>> Next question here. I'm gonna take this one. Jackie's asking about Valley Station. Do I think you're going to see severe weather tonight? They don't um I would tell you that if there's rogue warning south would be the better chance. Louisville's chance is pretty low on this one. Maybe a little bit of gusty winds. Um that may be a stretch because we're going to be inverted as the atmosphere cools. U maybe a little gusty winds, tiny hail, but u this is not something that should keep you up all night. So I want to give you that.
Um hopefully that helps and answers on that question.
>> Somebody asked if they can see radar, too. By the way, we have the the value um of being able to show you anything.
And I would say even everything. This is this is one of the things that's so cool about these lives is we can put in so many different ways >> and show you in so many different ways what's going on in the area. So great question Rick. I'll give you back the question and leave the two box up.
>> Yeah, this one's from Connor with a cooler pattern taking shape. And Connor, by the way, awesome question. How long will this severe weather be limited? The later we get into May, the closer we get to death season. He's >> Connor has good questions.
>> Conor is the man. Connor, I think, is definitely a a um weather enthusiast because some of his questions prove it for sure.
>> Yeah. I mean, just just based on some of the the language he's using. So, Connor, yes, you're absolutely right. With these cooler temperatures, we say goodbye to severe weather. Cool also means calm is what I like to say. So, after tonight, once we get through this storm action, which it's not going to be severe, but can't rule out a strong storm, then temperatures are too cool, due points are too low, there's no fuel for storms.
And that's why it's just kind of crazy the flip that we've seen at the end of April that just in the nick of time we go from warm dry to cooler and a wetter pattern for Derby week. And that's really going to be the name of the game.
I mean there's not a single day in the next seven with highs in the 80s or even highs in the 70s. We're in the 60s, right?
>> All 60s and the one day >> that we have some 50s and that's that's really it. So yes, Connor, you are right.
>> We've basically gotten through the severe shut it down for a little bit.
>> Yeah. And that's and we like that because what >> we love this.
>> Yeah. It just kind of buys us in time.
The more we can chisel away through the calendar of April and through the month of May, then like you alluded to, once that death ridge steps up, then it's summer season and it's MCS, it's pulse style storms, it's the summer style that we kind of are typically used to with the downpours, the lightning, and some gusty winds. But we don't get constantly battered with the opportunity for severe weather. and that that rain and storm action, not a single warning, but it's moving in quick. It's in Lichfield, it's south of Munfordville, it's moving up I65. It's approaching Greensburg. It's currently in Bowling Green in Morgantown. And that's all spilling into the north and eastern part of our area.
>> And I'll read you, by the way, weather service just put out an update a couple moments ago. This is about 8 minutes ago. Their verbiage here is not seeing anything in the way of updraft strength with these cells, which goes to what we noted that there's not a lot of fuel. Um the front edge of the rain shield winds are peaking around 30 miles an hour right now. Remember severe is 58. If you get a 30 mph wind, will you consider it bad? I don't know. But again, what we're trying to discuss is whether this would be severe 60 mph winds. And you heard what I just said is basically half of what that would be. They said hopefully the trend continues and we just get a good soaking rain. Um what we will do, not right now, but over the next couple of probably hour, hour and a half, um once the rain clears the watch, we'll probably ask about a cancel.
>> Um I don't think the watch should have been issued. Um and this is bringing up some interesting ones. Um we'll we'll save this for another day. Uh but there was what was called a PDS tornado watch issued yesterday.
>> I don't think there was a single warning in that PDS watch. Now, some have asked me, yeah, I've been doing this for just a couple of days. Some have asked me if I ever seen that before. So, in our area, I've seen it twice.
>> Really?
>> There was a high risk in western Indiana. I believe the year on this was maybe around 15. There was a high risk in western Indiana. Immediately issued a PDS tornado watch. Nothing. They literally canceled it without issuing a warning. That's number one. And a one that I remember vividly. And I'm going to tell you why. because I took heat on this one. I think I've told you this story. So, this was a year before Rick arrived, maybe a year and a half at WDRB, April 26, 2011. People are going to say, I know exactly what that is.
That's the super outbreak, the one that produced all the tornadoes Alabama. Did I have I told you this one?
>> No, I don't think so.
>> Okay, so this is an interesting story.
So, I'm on the morning show at the time.
Um, this is a monumental outbreak of tornadoes over um Alabama. And I want to be clear on this. Storms Prediction Center did a supremely good job in that area. One of the things that I have observed over the years is when there's high-risk events, they feather the edge and don't really focus as much on that.
Now, if you're in Alabama, you're like nailed. If you're in Kentucky, so what happened is in Grayson County, a storm went up immediately. I was on that morning. I said, I don't think we're going to get severe weather or a lot of it. Um because we were in the 50s. There was a massive area of rain that had kept the boundary to the south. Storm launches off the boundary, goes briefly severe in Grayson County. Um, they issue a PDS tornado watch immediately for our area. There was never another warning during the entire day and it was a PDS tornado watch.
>> I started to get emails that day because I said in the morning that I don't think we're going to see much severe. Viewers started to email me and said, "You're a There's a PDS tornado watch and you just told us it's no big deal. In the end, it wasn't a big deal here. It was a monumental deal to the south. But as we note on this, our responsibility is to our area. So, some have asked me again, have I ever seen a PDS tornado watch go belly up? My answer is yes, I have. So, I I just >> firsthand saw it firsthand. It's sad when it happens. um because unfortunately what happens when there's watches that are issued and nothing happens within those watches is unfortunately it does damage the weather enterprise and people's trust. So you know what we want you to what we want is to tell you guys that our expertise I feel is not matched. I think we have our expertise is as good as anywhere in the nation and just go to places you trust. Somebody asked me, should I watch blah blah blah or should I watch this person or that person? We won't ever tell you who you should watch. We really won't. Um, in fact, what we would do is compliment the people around us. We have really good people working in TV in this market. One thing we would just caution you against, and we hear this, we get these questions a lot. I watch blah blah blah on YouTube. I watch blah blah blah on Facebook. Make sure you know what you're watching. Make sure you know that you're watching a meteorologist. Um, there are some we know of that didn't finish their meteorology degree, may have started it and failed out. We know some that never did. We know that there's some that are doing weather that literally have watched YouTube videos.
>> And look, this is not to say hobbyists are not of value and your your what you do is not a cool thing. We look, we just told you we thought it was cool that Connor knows a lot about weather. Um, but what we're just saying is is that tr you have to find sources. you trust. You know, if your if your child's sick, you're not going to go on um Facebook and find somebody that's talking about medicine on there because >> they might may or may not be a doctor.
>> I mean, look, it's easier to find them, right? You could find them on Facebook super easy, >> right? And you >> sometimes easiest is not the best.
>> Easy. It's usually not the best actually. I mean, if it sounds too good to be true kind of thing, that kind of applies. And also, don't be fooled by the smoke and mirrors like the lights, the moni like that doesn't while it does help. And we're obviously blessed to be in a in a news station, so we have all these tools to use. Um, but sometimes you really got to do your own research.
And you'll be happy that you did because when it comes down to if your family's safety and livelihood is on the line, would you really want that in the hands of someone who doesn't know what they're talking about or >> Well, they may have maybe be a hobbyist.
I mean, it's not like they may, but is that the person you want or do you want the person through medicine medical school?
>> I'd rather have the best.
>> I would too. I mean, like if I go into a doctor's office, I'm not going to lie, sometimes I just browse around, look. I mean, I just obviously they're they're a real doctor, but you're like, "Huh, wonder where they went to school, you know, or if it's a lawyer or or if it's a accountant." I mean, you you you don't want like your taxes to be done by just somebody that has done their own taxes on Turboax. If you have a complicated scenario, >> and stuff we're talking about like this right here is complicated. This isn't is it going to rain or not. This is looking at highly complex levels in the atmosphere, integrating multiple pieces of data. We just told you the Storms Prediction Center, they're not amateur hour. They are Mets. Every one of those guys are Mets. I'm not saying we agree with their choice here, but they're degreed Mets. And I think even in this case, they got it wrong. So, you just have to be careful where you're getting information. So, I just I just mentioned that. We won't stay on that that topic too long. Cody Bell is asking about PRP area tonight. Are you going to see rain?
Yes. Are you going to see severe weather? Unlikely. Unlikely. I think that um there's just not a lot of potential there. Let's see. Got a Kyville. Leila D'vorah from Kyville. So Kyville, you're just going to get good oldfashioned rain and storms. More thunder and lightning at this point.
Some downpours may lighten up to some showers kind of light switch on and off overnight. And then you may pick up back intensity once again tomorrow morning with some heavier rainfall. But in terms of severe weather, no. I mean, you could get a stronger storm with some gustier winds. Um, the tiniest hail if if I would say that's probably not even going to happen. But just just so you know, this is more of the rain and thunderstorm action. The kind of stuff that you don't have to stay up all night worrying about. And I really think that's the take-home message when it comes to a lot of the people saying, "Well, what about Elizabeth Town?" It's the same thing. I mean, Elizabeth Town, you're about to get rained on. And once that rain starts, >> same with Campbell.
>> It's going to cool the atmosphere. I know you see that watch and you're thinking, "Here we go again after last night. I understand the concerned. I understand the urgency. I understand the anxiety. We're not even talking about anything close to what happened last night." So, agreed.
>> Um, and again, >> if there's to be severe, um, look, Litfield's probably not going to happen. Um maybe Greensburg, maybe Campbellville, maybe Columbia. But even that, I mean, look, you can see when you look at the radar here on the front edge of this thing is the only area where we have any true convective lightning on there. Behind it, it's rubbish. Now, >> rubbish that's bringing rain over a very, very needed area where there's severe drought. When I say rubbish, I don't mean rubbish in terms of it's literally garbage. I just mean it's not going to generate severe. There's not there's a narrow limited window here.
Um, and it, you know, I'm curious. Can you do me a favor on, are you on analyst still?
>> I'm on analyst. Yeah.
>> Can you put that up to and show us, um, ETSs?
>> What we're going to show you here, again, the beauty of doing these is that we have access to one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10. 10 weather systems within our our group. um two that are uh in in ingest which would be um 12 but we have access to a gazillion different pieces of data here um and allow us to show you in real time. So Rick, this is telling us the height of those storms, >> right?
>> Let's let's explain a little bit about what that means. It's telling us how deep are they penetrating into the atmosphere. Um and even in this case, you're you're talking about 25 mph lowle flow here. So even if this is penetrating 30,000 3540, there's not a lot of wind there. we would almost require a pulse meaning a really high pop up and then it collapse. How high are those yellows the right part of that screen where you see the cloud heights?
>> So between Munfordville and Campbellville I'm looking if you can you can actually I'll go like this. There's a quick circle. You see the cursor? So let's focus in on this cell right here.
>> Okay. This is the one over Greensburg.
>> This one has echo tops of around 32 to 33,000 ft.
>> Okay. So last night that would have been enough to generate some strong winds. Um what's different tonight is the winds at that level which last night were in the neighborhood of 60 to 70 m an hour. In the lower levels of the atmosphere tonight they're 20 miles an hour. And these winds uh or these storms do not penetrate high enough into the atmosphere to get into the part of the atmosphere where the winds are like 60.
They'd have to get up to around 45 50,000 feet. So these storms are only generating 15 to 20 mph winds right now.
>> Yeah, the the wind energy simply is not there for these storms to tap into. So you're looking at storms right now over State Highway >> that was 88 and that's also including uh 1464. And again, this is just to the west of Greensburg approaching areas like Summersville right now. Okay, >> these are the tallest storms.
>> They are not severe. They do have heavy rainfall. I can also inspect the wind.
>> Okay. Uh not seeing any sort of gusty winds with this one either >> and that and we just verified that with the Kentucky mezanet which is in these counties.
>> Perfect.
>> So um you guys you guys are getting some understanding of this. One of the things you know I I have come to the uh enjoy over the years of doing this is um I really love being able to explain a little about weather. I like to dive into the details. We really do enjoy that. Um, so hopefully that's one of the things that the the viewers that come in here enjoy that. Um, Susie is saying, "You guys are fantastic. I trust you guys." We appreciate that. I mean, we've been here with you a lot over the last day. If you're not sick of us by now, you're doing something wrong because you should be. Um, but we did six lives yesterday. Let me just tell you this. I want you guys to listen to this for a moment. So, we did six lives yesterday.
Over half a million people watched those. half a million views on those lives yesterday.
>> Half a million.
>> So, I just want you guys to know um you're making some waves. You guys are really, really, really supporting us in a monumental way. We're seeing new eyeballs that are coming to this stream every single day. Um and it I just these are these are humongous massive numbers, especially because we're not focusing on the US as a whole. Our goal is to hyperfocus on the region that we live in and to be able to generate over a half a million views.
For us is a real testament to what we're trying to create here. Rick, um Jude, Bryce, Matthew, and I have spent a lot of time trying to develop this studio C and bring you a different way of doing weather. Um, it doesn't mean that we stopped doing TV because we that is a big part of what we do, but we wanted to have a place where it can be kind of more of a conversational, more of a you ask me, I answer. Um, we wanted to create a place where we can get into more detail for those that want that.
And yesterday is another example of that. Um, in the last year, we hit over a million views on a single day. We had one day last year, and I know easy to pick out the one where we had 1.2 2 million views in a day. I'm going to let you guess it, Rick.
>> Wasn't that the winter storm?
>> Nope.
>> No, >> it's not. There's another one that should stick out at you.
>> That's the only >> I'm going to give you an example. Hold on. I'm going to replay an example for you. So, this is going to be a reenactment, >> everybody. I don't know what's coming, so brace yourselves.
>> I'm going to look at the camera so I can do the full reenactment.
Louisville. It's not like, hey, oh, you know, we might have a tornado on the ground. It's like, we have a tornado on the ground doing damage right now. So, that just that's just a little reenactment there.
>> That was pretty good, Jtown.
>> Don't say no more. That was That was very good. He I was like, where is he going with this?
>> That was pretty good. Right.
>> That was very good.
>> So, when when Jay Town was >> That was Did I do the clap? That's that's what I remember cuz I was like >> that went I I don't know but I think somebody said that went crazy on Tik Tok.
>> We did. Yeah, we saw you there.
>> You you often you off Tik Tok.
>> Here's the thing though.
>> We we feel that when there's something significant going on when we can elevate the concern from hey this might be a tornado to >> there is >> there's a tornado hitting you. It's doing damage and your life's at risk.
>> We changed the way we do things. We changed the verbiage and that was the day. So, >> we you needed an Academy Award for that.
The reenactment.
>> No, I did not. I >> a Grammy or something. I'd >> like to thank my parents for having me.
I'm going to have to practice the speech here because that that I have to admit that that reenactment was close.
>> I know you. It's It's pretty good.
>> If you didn't know that was me and literally it was me. You would think that was me.
>> Well, people would did that. People actually made videos doing that. Yeah.
That you didn't see that? It was hilarious.
>> Oh, man. So, yeah, we had 1.2 million views on that day. So, thank you guys. I mean, like I said, um >> we put the content out there. We do this. Um one of the things we hope is that people enjoy the style, the science that we're bringing. We're just trying to do things in a different way. So, >> and honestly, >> we're just being ourselves. It's not really It's not We just kind of joke around a little bit. This is just us in our natural state. Um TV's, you know, it's there's so many limitations in terms of timing and, you know, there's interaction, but when we're sitting in here, >> there's a level of calm.
>> I mean, some sanity, but >> not not after all that we've been through.
>> Victoria is asking, by the way, tell me when you're going to get to the weather.
Victoria, by the way, I'll monitor. If you can tell us where you are, I can update you. But remember, you can go back into the video any portion you want to get to that. Let me just briefly touch. We've got thunderstorms in our area in the southwestern part of our area. In this video, we made a case for the idea that we do not have a lot of wind energy right now. The fuel is getting chewed away by the rain that's coming through. We don't believe that a watch should have been issued. We do not think so. Uh we don't issue the watches.
We give the analysis. So, we don't believe one should have been issued.
We're not telling you there's a 0% probability. We're telling you it could be rogue at best. We're telling you southern Indiana doesn't have any fuel.
We're telling you it's unlikely to get severe. Louisville, Southern Indiana.
We're saying if there was to be a severe, it would be rogue. We don't think it would meet the criteria of what's necessary for a watch. We think the far southern part of our area into southern Kentucky would have the better chance. We feel that when you get into Tennessee, Arkansas, northern Mississippi, Alabama, the better chance of severe exists there. So, we wanted to explain that because we were having a little bit of fun for a second. And Rick, you know, we're seeing a lot of questions like this. I'm in Grayson County. I'm in Bullet County. I'm in Bardstown. Our answer for a lot of those areas is we don't think there's going to be much severe.
>> Same. I It's funny. I don't know. I'm a weirdo. I like to listen to other people when they talk about weather tonight.
And I was grabbing something and I heard someone we're supposed to get more storms tonight. I just always like >> It is fun, right?
>> It's Well, I feel like I I feel like if I can listen in, then I can use >> Yes.
>> some of what they have to say because that's the pulse. That's what people feel. That's what people are thinking.
So, I >> tend to ease drop. I'm sorry. Just I can't help it. But I you know, that's the thing. People, they're going to get more storms tonight. Yes. But are they going to be severe? Highly unlikely. And that's really what I just want to tell you. Now, um, Billy asking, when's this going to start at the airport? Probably around, >> yeah, I would say between 10 and 11, you'll get some rain and storms here.
Um, again, not looking at severe stuff.
I know a lot of people traveling or you work there. Um, so Billy, hopefully that helps you out a little bit.
>> And Kim is saying, um, any possibility of tornadoes tonight? Um, it's very low.
I don't think that it even meets the criteria of a 2%. Um the low-level flow is just not there until after midnight.
And at that point, the wind surface winds are so disjointed.
>> Yeah.
>> Um you really don't have a a wind setup that would help generate rotation in storms. We can never tell you it's a 0%.
Um but it's low. We don't think it meets the criteria of a 2% chance. So um good question here. I love this this this comment here. It's from Ellie that's joining us on um YouTube. She says, "Somebody with for someone with extreme storm anxiety, having you all explain what's going on um and puts it in perspective, it puts my mind at ease and that's really helpful." And you know, I think that that's really what our lives are different on.
>> There's a million places where you can just go get weather information.
>> What we're trying to bring you is real analysis. We're trying to take you I say this frequently if you snorkel. You're on the top of the water. You're kind of viewing it. You go to the aquarium. You look through the glass. The looking through the glass, you can get it right here. You can get it on your phone. You can get it on an app. You can get it anywhere. What we're trying to do is take you on the other side of the glass and dive into the water and take you down in there and get you into the real details of what's happening. And in that, I think for people that love Weather, the enthusiasts or people that have real nerves or anxiety about this, understanding a little bit more, I think for a lot of these people feels empowering.
>> Knowledge is power. It's It sounds cliche, but it's true. And I love how you turn that into a scuba diving analogy.
>> It's It's you know, I I always use that analogy for a lot of different things.
>> I mean, the man the man he's scuba >> I have too many hobbies. I mean, between between the astronomy and the and the scuba diving, he's got a lot of hobbies.
>> I do have a lot of hobbies. I've had to give some up, too. I I uh I had to I had to give up golf. Did you ever play golf?
>> No, I had I have a bad temper.
>> Oh, so you would be the one that would throw the golf club.
>> Yeah, there's a story behind that. We won't get into that.
>> Let's just move that to the side. We'll just The rubber bands is enough story.
>> I have enough. I've had enough views this week.
>> Um somebody here, Connor saying, and Connor's one of our enthusiasts here.
Connor saying, "I love how you guys educate. You don't just tell us what's happening." You know, true story on this one, Connor. I started in TV many, many years ago. I'm not going to say the exact location some. It's not hard to figure out. Last station I worked at, I was told that people don't want the more the deeper information. I was told, "Stop explaining the weather and just show me the sevenday." I was told, "This is a true story." I was told that the general public has the education of a seventh grader, so speak to them like that. I told them that's not me. I can't do that. That's not who I am. And um you know, we kind of went our separate ways and I ended up in Louisville. But you know, when I came to Louisville, um I had decided before I came here that there's only one way I can do this. It's with science. It's with explaining. It's with passion. It's sharing the heart of what I love. And I decided that if I wasn't if that was not going to be welcome, then this would be the last station I'd ever work at. Um I figured one way or the other, this would be the last station I ever work at. And I came here, Bill Lamb um is our general manager and our news director at the time was Kathy Layman Francis. And then it was Barry Fulmer afterwards who is our news director now. Um Jen Keaney who lives in the town here, worked in the news business, was also al also our news director. And all this time in the 21 years that I've been here, I've always been encouraged to be a scientist, to be me. And I love that I can be me. I love that that there are many of you out there that love science as much as I do.
Maybe you didn't go to school for it.
Maybe you didn't get your degree in it, but you love science and you love the details. And I'd hope that that science would catch on the way it has. Um, and it did. And for 21 years I've been here, and I've said this a gazillion times, I'll continue to be here as long as WDRB would have me because they have supported a style and a belief. They've given us creativity and and some level of content control over what we do. We function as a meteorology department. We don't work as a weather team. The news directors don't come in here and tell us how to tell you the weather. We as a meteorology department dictate how we're going to present the weather. And it is empowering. It makes you want to work hard. It's it's cool to be part of a group where we have scientists, not weather people, but we have scientists.
And I love that about our group.
>> Yeah. It's it's it's really it's it's a contagious thing. And we're all very competitive, but in a very positive way where, you know, we like to we like to kind of one up each other, but I feel like that always presses you to be better. And it's it's created an environment where you can learn, where you can grow and challenge yourself. I feel like, you know, going to work every day and doing the same thing that's mundane, not learning anything and just kind of, you know, clocking in, clocking out. I don't I couldn't do that. I I couldn't live that kind of life. Um, and some people, they love that. Um, but I just feel like I love that we come in here every day fresh late and we're encouraged to do something a little bit different or to try something or >> we think, how can I do something different? How can I be outside of the box? and not just do it just to be different, but is there a better way?
>> A better way. And that's the whole thing. And that's and doing something, especially with the way technology is racing, advancing forward that you have to adapt. If you don't adapt, you die.
Like you're just going to be left in the dust. So, I feel like that's always, you know, added pressure. But then inside of that, we always like to to think, well, what do you want home rather than what do we think you like? What what's going to help you guys? And that's where, you know, this has all evolved into the question and answering thing. And speaking of that, I know Dana Sears is screaming.
>> Yes, let's give her an answer.
>> Yeah, she wants to go to bed in Campbellville. You can go to bed and not worry about severe weather day.
>> If you want to wait till there's zero probability, you just allow this initial wave to go by. I need basically 40 minutes.
>> Yeah. And and you will hear thunderstorms >> and then it's over, >> right? The severe potential.
>> I felt bad. She said she's she's beat and I I sympathize with that. I understand it.
>> I mean, I'm too.
>> Yeah. You had a long a long night and early morning.
>> Yeah. Yeah. So Jude came in last night.
A lot of you will be able to understand this. Um pollen has been brutal. Tree pollen's in wrecking voices right now.
And we talked for so long that it's real bad. So Jude came in when he got here.
We talked to him. Jude's like, I don't know if my voice is going to make it.
>> Sound good.
>> So I was like, Rick, get out of here.
And literally that's the words I use for Rick when I Rick and I work together every day. I see Rick eight hours a day, five days a week. I know this guy real well. So I when Rick has reached his limit, I can see it. And so many times there's times where Rick will say, I'm going to stay late. And I know if he's saying that, he really wants that. And that allows me to go home early sometimes, which helps me.
>> But you know, conversely, when I see in Rick's eye that he has reached the capacity, I will say, "Rick, go home."
And you'll say, "Are you sure, Rick, go home?" And then Rick grabs his stuff. He comes back out. He's like, >> "Are you sure, Rick? Go home." Okay, I'll see you tomorrow, Mark.
>> That is factual. As fact, >> I start saying crazy things. He's like, "This guy just got to get him out."
>> So, you know, we we because we are a group, we gauge as a as a a whole how we can make sure that we can keep people on the team fresh because it is tornado season. That's not over yet. It does us no good if Rick gets overt taxed and now mentally he's not at his sharpest when we need him at his sharpest. And that goes to me, Jude, everybody on the team.
It's one of the constant eb and flows that we're always working on with our group is who do we insert in the situation to put them in the best possibility to succeed. Rick got a little sleep last night. Rick came in fresh today ready to go. I'll get a little bit of sleep tonight. and and you know hopefully neither of us is staying late watching the watch that we don't think should have been issued. But um you know that that's kind of how things work. But it is uh we definitely could have a a a reality show behind the scenes weather especially if Mike Marshall was included.
>> So it's just it's a cast of characters.
It truly is. I mean >> when Jude is around you don't know what's going to happen.
>> You actually that usually what happens is the least expected thing.
>> When he walks through the door you don't know when we see him. You don't know.
What you do know is he's probably going to have a cup of coffee and a cup of hot chocolate next to each other.
>> And then he mixes them together.
>> And now Rick has kind of changed into Rick's morphed now into a a energy drink drinker when he was a tea drinker because it's storm season.
>> Had up the Annie a little bit. You know, you had to take the milligrams had to go from 3050 to like 100. We had to we had to get the milligrams up.
>> So um another question you're coming in.
Let's go back to three questions here.
Remember, I got to look at the late data here. Make sure we update on TV. Um, so last three questions here. I'm going to take the first one. This question is coming in from Shelley. She's saying, "I know it sounds dumb, but we had some rumbles of thunder last night. Um, also, um, and you know, u, I always thought that thunder came after lightning struck. Is that true?"
Great question. So, this I love science and I I like science questions. So the question then comes down to um did the chicken come before the egg which is cause which is effect. So that then comes down to what is thunder? Thunder is air molecules banging into each other.
What? So when lightning comes down from the sky comes down to 2 million degrees.
What that does is superheats the air right around the channel. The air then starts to get super excited and starts banging into each other.
That sound you're hearing is the air banging into each other. So lightning occurs, heats the air around it. Air gets excited, air bangs into one another. air since it's banging into one another starts this loud banging sound which is thunder which then travels towards you at the speed of sound approximately 500 miles an hour. So you cannot have thunder without lightning.
So lightning is the creator of thunder.
I thought that's a great question. A little bit of a fun opportunity to explain that. So Shel, good question by the way. Um Rick question now for you.
Let's do the real creative minds. You've done it again.
>> What is this?
>> Please like the video if you haven't already.
>> Oh, yes.
>> You're awesome, >> Rick. Um, this Victoria's asked this several times, so let's do Valley Station. I missed it. Let's knock that one.
>> Victoria, we got your back. Don't worry.
So, for the PRP Shively Valley Station area, you have not seen that rain advance in yet. Just let me double check my radar so I can be as precise as possible. Uh, between uh between 10 and 11, you'll probably see the most abundant rain start to move in. Uh there will be some rumbles of thunder. This is going to be a steadier rainfall. Uh not heavy enough to see the kind of flooding we dealt with last night. We're not looking at severe weather. Can't rule out a stronger storm, but this is a lot more beneficial rain and some embedded thunder in the PRP Valley Station area and for much of our area, in fact. So, Victoria, yes, you can go to sleep tonight. You don't have to worry about severe weather in the Louisville metro area and you'll get some more rainfall which means tomorrow morning if you're out and about early on the day tomorrow what tomorrow's Wednesday >> is Wednesday >> right so there it's gotten mental aerobics in a sense to remember the different days though >> and the and the yeah just today was 50 Tuesday tomorrow's Wednesday but the first half of the day does look kind of soggy >> it does drizzle miss that sound loaded >> so just if you're if you're if you're up early that's what you'll be expecting and then should be drier during the afternoon. Can't say no chance for a shower around the great steamboat race, but man, it's already the great steamboat race.
>> I know. I know. And Rick, we're going to do one last question here for the night.
I'm going to call it out here.
>> So, our last question of the night is coming in from Matt uh Seovich. Matt Matt is saying um very specifically here. He's saying um does Rick have the rubber band?
Does Does Rick have rubber bands out tonight?
>> Rubber band Rick. Is that going to BE MY NEW NAME?
>> YES. YES. I'm changing the name on your locker to rubber band.
>> No, no, no, no.
>> Yes. Thank you. There's no rubber bands.
>> There's no rubber bands. I will put them on before the 11:00. So, if you want to, you won't be able to see them. But, >> and I'm going to answer the last question. Autumn is asking and I'm going to show you. Am I safe in Etown? There is the lightning. There's the rain and thunder. Right now, that is starting to expand. There you go. Um, so we do have some lightning and thunder. Keep in mind this is outside of the watch. I want to say that one more time. This is not even where the watch is located. I'm going to show you radar right now. Remember, what we would look for is something similar to what we saw last night. What did we see last night? A really, really hard front to that line. It does not exist.
Rain and thunder, yes. Will it shake your house? Yes. Will you see valuable rain tonight? Absolutely. Could we get a rogue strong storm? Not impossible. We really haven't seen winds over more than about 30 miles an hour. I'm actually going to look in the Kentucky Mezzanet in the live and look at peak wind gusts.
Actually, I can't since midnight because that will include storms from yesterday.
But I'm going to look at current wind gust. The highest right now is 29 miles an hour. That is coming in near the Munfordville area. 30 mph wind should be the more norm out of this. So guys, it is 9:30 right now. Um, if you guys enjoy the Facebook lives, you could see we kind of cover a lot of different things in here. We do our best always to answer your questions. We get off track every once in a while a lot of times and then we find our way back on track. But hopefully you guys enjoy what we do here. If you do appreciate our lives, thumbs up, throw some hearts across the screen if you're on our Facebook, if you're on my Tik Tok, and we are on Tik Tok. Um, you can always like my page on Tik Tok. Lastly, if you're one of our YouTubers, we appreciate you subscribe to the page. You can like the YouTube.
Yep.
>> So, don't be afraid to throw a thumbs up there and just um share the video after it comes to an end. The reason um even after video ends, even on Facebook, you can scroll to any place you want on the video to watch it. So, I'm going to be on WDRB News at 10 updating you on thunderstorm risk. Rick's going to be on WDRB News at 11 updating you on thunderstorm risk, updating you on when the rain ends tomorrow, updating you on Derby, updating you on oaks. are some in interesting things for Oaks and Derby. Now, that doesn't mean rain necessarily. Um, but that could cause an outfit change.
It >> could >> or an outfit alteration >> or an addition we'll give you that information on WDB News at 10. Hopefully, you guys enjoyed tonight's WDRB live. We obviously be will be watching the storms as necessary. Just because we don't think there's a large-scale severe threat doesn't mean we don't have eyes on the system at the uh the whole time. So, um thank you for joining us on the WDRB weather. I'll be on WDRB News at 10.
He'll be on WDRB News at 11. Lastly, remember Rick Duke is trying to get to 30,000 followers on Facebook. If you can head over to his Facebook, click the like. Let's get him over 30. Uh,
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