Political opposition fragmentation significantly weakens electoral chances, as demonstrated by Nigeria's 2023 election where divided opposition votes (Atiku 29%, Obi 25%, Kwankwaso 6%) allowed the ruling party to win with only 37% of the vote; unified opposition through coalition building is essential for electoral success.
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Heat. Heat.
Okay, welcome back. Um, people are still keeping me messing me just to throw me here in the studio.
I don't know what's going on. It's all good anyway. I think life continues. Um, life continues. Okay. Nobody should come talk to me about football today. All right. Anyway, um, you're welcome.
We'll be having a guest. I you know is meant to have this morning tomorrow. All right. He'll be here with us and um um talking about the national public sector of the people's democratic party to faction. Um even as uh Dr. Kodak Jonathan has been announced as a factions um presidential candidate. The man I haven't heard him say he wants to be president of Nigeria but someone went to court on his behalf um and the court of course said he's clear to contest. um the faction tried to hold uh you know um its its um presentation of certificate of return um to Dr. Jonathan. Uh, but unfortunately they had some issue with the police blocking access to um to the venue and then they also had issues with some thugs coming with sticks and other weapons to chase them away um and ended up going elsewhere to do that ceremony.
But then the man who was meant to be the center of attraction, good luck Jonathan was nowhere to be found. He wasn't there some he was even out of the country as we spoke. So the certificate of return was given to another person to keep till they're able to see Jonathan 101 and give it to him. All right, but I don't know what your thoughts are. We'll talk about 2027 because everything hinges on leadership. U if you're concerned about, you know, insecurity, leadership is the answer. If you're concerned about the economy, leadership is the answer. If you're concerned about roads, leadership is the answer. If you're concerned about electricity, power supply, leadership is the answer. If you're concerned about sport, leadership is the answer.
Whatever it is is about the leadership of the country. Okay. So, um I mean like I always say on this program, we have people who support opposition parties um who are not happy with the establishment, are not happy with the administration in this country, um who listen to this program, who participate in our programs. We also equally have people who support the current federal government. We also have people who support the current federal government who listen to this program. We have all of them. And so our program is for everyone. Okay? Is for everyone. Mhm. So please be a part of the conversation.
Now question I'm asking you today is Nigeria's opposition too fragmented, too divided to win. Is your position in Nigeria too divided to win? Okay. too divided to win. I I can go further to ask add another question to that.
Is your position in Nigeria um too disorganized to win? Too disorganized to win. Okay.
The next presidential election 2027. Don't forget if you to go by the ink timetable which is a s um what again? A subject of a court process.
Yes. No, Saturday was a deadline for um submission of candidates to INC. It was meant to end on April 30.
It was meant to end on April 30.
Okay. I saw, like I said, you know, at 5:00, the um headline that Bloomberg chose to go with, Nigeria's OB to run for president in 2027, splitting opposition.
An article by Ruth Oluroi, sorry, you know, um and that split is um is is is quite interesting. Um Nigeria's fragmented opposition, is it split, whatever you want to call it? Um that's what they say. Okay. So is Nigeria's opposition too divided to win?
Already all the political parties are having the issues. We talked about that at 5:00 hour. Um APC have issues in Edo State, in Delta State, in Lagos state, in your state, in Cano State, in River State with their primaries.
There's discontent in the party.
People who have fought for the party with their blood, who st their integrity and credibility, put it on the line, feel short changed. Some have even gone ahead to leave the party.
NDC still the same thing. We don't know who has been who has been elected in the primaries as we speak. We don't even know.
There are results flying left, right, and center up and down from NDC. And a party has had to come out to say they're disowning these results and they're calling a national executive committee meeting to ratify the outcome of the primaries.
Confusion.
Even people who have worked for their anointed candidate, the one that they selected, his excellency Petby, people who have worked with him in the trenches could not even win their primaries. And those people are alleging manipulation and compromised primary.
How about the ADC?
Confusion in the ADC over their governorship and and and legislative primaries in Aun state.
in Kano state, in Boi state, in Benway state, in Adamawa state and moreover this ADC, they have three presidential candidates.
They have three presidential candidates.
Some of those who left Labor Party and PDP to ADC have moved to NDC.
Some of those who were in PDP have moved to APM. She maki is there depict him as your presidential candidate.
Okay.
So PDP divided, ADC divided, Labor Party divided and then within these parties their primaries the members are not satisfied. They're not happy. There's discontent.
If this isn't a definition of a fragmented opposition, then what is all right? Is this therefore going to pave the way pave the way for Tinu to ride eh on a horse a horsedrawn carriage? the one that that King Charles, the British king, not my king but the British king um brought out for him. That one they don't bring out anyhow except they want to charm you and engage in diplomatic charm offensive what I mean it's not champ to impress you.
So with this current state of Nigeria's opposition, okay, an opposition of particular concern, are they now putting a red carpet for Ba with a hor strong courage like King Charles has for him to ride in majesty majestically to As Rock in 2027.
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and for diaspora community and every other person WhatsApp number 0895975805 0895975805 all right I cannot forget Donald Duke who has also um put his name out there um with um uh news of his emergency as the presidential flag bearer of PRP, People's Redemption Party. When I when I think of Donald, you can only imagine, you know, the song that says there's a song uh which has his lyrics, I can only imagine cuz it was this close this close to being president of Nigeria. This close. And oh my god, it would have been lovely.
99.3 Hello. Good morning, my brother.
>> Good morning. Who do we have?
>> From >> Yeah. What I want to say um well, the opposition party is being disorganized is a major issue because uh it's going to give the ruling party, you know, a lot of uh chances in the next election.
But I think the the most significant issue that Nigerians are not talking about is the personality of neck. You know this neck has shown by all intent and purposes and with the character of the person leading it that they cannot conduct a free and fair election. Even if all the opposition parties come together and present a common front, it is still going to be impossible for them to to to beat it in the next election because this man is desperate and he has appointed someone who is lap dog so to say who can who just dictate to this is what I want and the guy has no option but to do it. So this is where we should be concentrating our attention for now.
I think that's what I have to do this morning.
>> Okay. Okay. Okay. Interesting. Thank you so much. He says this is where we should be concentration concentrating tension for now. 99.
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>> Oh my. Okay. And okay, that's another problematic line there. 99.3 99.3 >> Hello >> 99.3 >> Okay, call back if you can. Um, and please, if you're a male, don't call the female line.
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>> Yeah, you're calling the female line, sir. You're calling You're calling the female line. 99.3.
>> Hello. Good morning. Good morning.
Quickly your name, location from >> Yeah. Thank you. Concerning the coming election, I don't think the opportunity they are ready. People are talking of saying that we read the election but let the opposition let them come together first. We don't like to blame but we like to blame others. Opposition they all scatter you see. So and then they give the president the you know the leverage you know to continue office and then this >> are you there >> I was saying that I'm here >> this morning I was some people think that does not have structure these are the people that will be without structure you know can make impact you see so we only want our brother to be there not because Niger to be but just for our brother to be there And they say that where these are people say that to be no ranger that people will support him. So this is bad. Thank you very much.
>> Thank you very much for your time.
Appreciate the calling. Says she lack structure 99.3.
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Can you call the general line?
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>> Yeah. uh I don't think P2B will move to NDC without articles being in the no me I feel is their strategy because if you're looking at the position that are divided is with is around is within this south southern region in the north they presenting just as equal as their presidential candidate I think is a game to divide the vote in the south from the opposition because I don't think P2B will move to another party without article or without articles without article being aware that's what me I feel okay okay I'm trying to understand how Tommy paja thank you how that's even possible but hey let's see what our listeners think 99.3 >> this is Obama >> okay where you listening from >> yes I'm calling from Okay. Okay. Welcome, Marshall. Yeah.
>> Yeah. They You said it all.
They are not ready.
>> I didn't say I I didn't I didn't I didn't say Oh, I asked. Okay. I asked.
>> No, no, you are.
>> Mhm.
>> I didn't.
>> Uhhuh.
>> They are not ready.
The reason why I'm telling you this I heard when OB was with what they call it is it ABC then they had this court problem he's not patient enough to be with article they now jumped out why not wait for primary so that they can select he that will carry the flag but they keep jumping and they never knew that APC We have moles.
These moles are not like you have obedience. Obedience is everywhere.
Obedience of obedient, obedient of anything.
They are >> okay. Thank you so much. Thank you very much for your time. WhatsApp number by 0895975805.
You can call on WhatsApp. Um, okay. We find it difficult to get through us on the main line. 99.3 >> Good morning >> good morning sir what's your name please >> okay this barister I'm calling from Mland >> okay barristister this line is not is not for use by our male listeners uh the general the general line is for is for everybody listen >> the line is not very good but >> yeah it's still still you have to call the main line sir you have to call the main line >> okay so our female listeners can get through it's just a rule that we have to adhere 99.39 >> good morning your name location >> okay okay please go see all the world position don't divide all the whole party don't divide everything line Nigerian Nigeria will not get party we get voters card we know who we are going to vote for if our vote can be count this security us close our eyes everything lie in the hands of Nigeria according to the vote is in their court. IF OUR VOTE CAN BE COUNT, we will get it right this time around. Enough is enough like divide into pieces but we know we need change must go must go. So let Nigeria come out and vote and defend our vote.
Let our vote count the result and this time around they're going to result in the afternoon not in the midnight. You understand? So let defend defend our vote. Thank you.
>> God bless you.
>> I've never understood people's fixation with this time of the day um where results are announced. It does not it has not mean when they announce in the middle of night doesn't mean they are stealing it. It's not the time of the day from time immemorial results are announced at night in middle of the night cuz they count throughout the day even party primaries those days of delegates before this thing this new thing they are doing here uh with by expuning uh you know um uh indirect primaries it so it does not matter what time of the day it's announced that's not a a standard to say that oh because they read the results in the night it must have it must be fake.
Please, let's grow up. Okay, let's let's grow up. I don't I don't like hearing that. I have heard it since 2023. It doesn't make sense to me. They can announce results anytime. It does not matter if so. Okay. So, if they announce a rigged election the afternoon, therefore, it's all right. Kind of things that people fall for. 99.3 WhatsApp caller, please. Your name, location, and contribution.
Hello, WhatsApp caller. Can you hear me?
Oh.
Are you there? WhatsApp caller?
Okay, please call back. I do not know if it's from your end or uh see chin chin do your boss says um I would rather look at it from the mood on the streets where I've taken a vox pop of the preferred candidate for president. You interviewed everybody in Nigeria, right? All the voters. It says overwhelmingly the preferred choice is the NDC candidate for president and if anybody is dividing the votes it is the APC. Sounds ironic, but it's the mood on the streets. Okay, thank you so much. I want you to call back when we uh we return.
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>> This is morning crossfire on 99.3 Nigeria info.
All right, good morning. Welcome back.
Uh, still the boarding crossfire right here on 99.39 J for 0201277 um 0993 0201 46571 um 90. Take the numbers again. 0201277 um 0993201 4657190.
Those numbers will get you through to us here um in the studio. All right. Um uh WhatsApp number 0895975805 or WhatsApp number 0895975805 um is Nigeria's opposition too divided to win uh too fragmented to win uh too disorganized to win the next uh presidential election. I would like to hear from you. Of course we all know what's been happening with all the parties and the difficulties they've been going through. Okay. Now we have um several opposition um presidential candidates. We have the candidate of um a we have the candidates of PDP. Um I think they have two cuz um I've heard that uh um um Sand the Honor Senator Sandon of Cross state is the presidential candidate of uh of the PDP.
um the other faction, should I call it, the Wiki faction. And then of course um um the Turaki faction of the PDP yesterday uh was on Saturday after the long uh much touted um presentation of a certificate of return with all the back and forth um the drama, you know, that um uh preceded it. finally gathered somewhere um at a private um private venue since they couldn't access the uh the A-class event center where police had blocked access with their vans and then later thugs you know came there with sticks to chase them away. um they found somewhere to meet and uh um gave the the um the cert certificate of return to someone else. I looked at the face of the person I said no be Jonathan be this now. So what happened? Good luck Jonathan was nowhere to be found and they had to give to someone else who they said should hold it. I think professor Jerry Gana was the one who was speaking and said oh keep this just hold it because um we'll give it to Dr. Jonathan at some point and present the flag so he had to keep it so he knows that we have kept it for him. Um I don't know and it's just not working. It doesn't look like it's working. Um I mean is Jonathan himself is he interested? Okay. Is he uh as he said he wants to be president? Um we know that the court has cleared the way for him.
Um this particular PDP all right this particular PDP are they are they serious? looking at all the courts have said about who the authentic PDP is, are they serious or is it just a circus and a waste of time? Now, of course, um we have several, you know, opposition parties now, um you know, the ADC is there, Labor Party is there, don't forget. Um NDC is there and of course uh now she in this party is there APM Donaduk has come out too as well his party is there PRP and he's a strong candidate is a I mean if he's president of Nigeria he will do a good job okay he'll do a good job I I would even say he would be a better president than Peter I don't know I mean I I it's up for debate but I mean it's debatable right Yeah, it could be even a better is a better product. Um, if you look at if you want to talk about achievements, but that is debatable. I'm not saying for certain that that is I need to sit down and think about it, you know, think about it. But I'm putting this out there that we can have that debate. We can have that debate that Donald Duke will make a better president than Peter will be for Nigeria.
And if you want to challenge, you want to want to you want to be part of this debate, if you call, call with facts, call and talk with facts.
Yes.
Since all of you are saying what I sh done, let's bring facts.
So, so we have um we have well they said OB got 45 million votes. I want to tell you that he has come out to disone that claim. Okay. has distanced himself from via reports the likes of Leroy are putting out um Lara is my friend um you know so that's not what we're talking about anyway so so with such a a divided and fragmented opposition is it not clear for president to to just you know ride majestically to as rock in 2027 look at the the fieldar is there ADC they have three presidents presidential candidates three PDP they have two presidential candidates you you can't make this stuff up you can't make this stuff up but those of us who who were in River State and we we you know we observe the political you know developments river state and learned from it were familiar with this thing you know and of course it's politics it's politics that's all I'll say it's politics you know it's politics it's a game they're all playing it may the best man Okay. But the best man win. But this is what we have today.
PDP has two presidential candidates.
ADC, they have three presidential candidates.
Labor party, how many do they have? I check. Okay.
But there are two Labor parties. They may end up having two presidential candidates.
Okay.
You have NDC. Only God knows the storm that is brewing for NDC. They're just hiding it. I don't know. I pray not. I pray not. I pray not. But may God help us. Then of course you have uh um Sheam in this party and then you have now Donald Duke and then not not forgetting Sha who is there as well and let's not forget SDP.
SDP is there. Okay. Now I hope you all remember what happened in 2023. What happened in 2023?
It was a divided opposition vote. Okay.
Tinu won with 37% of the vote in Nigeria's election.
The results the winner is declared simple majority. Right? 37% of the vote because the opposition votes were split between Atikwaka who had 29% of the vote, Obi who had 25% of the votes and Kuang Quaso who had 6% of the votes.
Okay.
So if you add articles 29%.
And obese 25% and Quankqua 6%. That is 60% of the vote for 2023.
60% of the vote.
If all those candidates in 2023 had united be behind one candidate, the mathematics would have changed.
Nigeria's election is is uh the presidential election rule is first pass the post in 25% of the states sorry in 24% in 24 states sorry uh plus the FCT.
Okay.
So, you must have 25% of the votes in 24 states.
Is it 23 states plus the FCT and once you can make that and you have your majority, you are good to go.
You're good to go.
Look at that. 60% of the votes. We wouldn't be where we are today if Atiku had dropped his pride. If Obi had dropped his pride, if Kangos had dropped his pride and they all say, "Can we work together?" If you want to accuse Ryan Wik of anything, you want to accuse Bolatin of anything, one thing that you can never accuse them of is they know how to get their people together and then they choose one person and everybody queues up behind and that is what's working for them. Yesterday in River State was a Saturday they had Rainbow Coalition gathering. I was even surprised I heard apart from APC and PDP they had um some labor party people are in rainbow coalition then aa I think action alliance some of their members are in rainbow coalition wik's platform it's it's not enough to condemn and abuse you call wik names call terrible names how are you now able to organize yourselves and the biggest word for me is organize organize how are you able to organize yourself to beat their strategy.
How you able to do that? I mean, it's it's brilliant. It takes a genius.
Whichever way you want to swing it, left or right, good or bad, there's some brilliance attached to being able to to hold a a state politically together in one group and come out with I was thinking yesterday, who even gave Wikid's idea of rainbow coalition?
who even gave him the idea of rainbow cor and there must there's some level of genius attached to that. I'm sorry you may not like what I'm saying. Genius cannot be only for the things you like.
It might be for things you consider bad yes and I would like to see if your opposition then you should also also bring your own genius idea to because you have to defeat genius idea genius idea.
I don't know how they came up with that rainbow coalition, but there's some genius. I I like to learn. I like to learn. If I see someone doing something and I will sit down and say, "How did this person get this thing?" I want to learn it.
I want to learn it. It may not be my friend. I may not be your fan, but I want to learn. I want to see how did you get it. I could approach you and I'll say, "Hey, I don't know how to do this thing." He's a I said, "No, can you teach me? And I don't mind if you're younger than me." How tell me. That's how we grow.
That's how we grow.
That's how we grow. Well, what happened in 2023 is going to repeat itself in 2027.
What happened in 2023 will repeat in 2027.
Repeat in 2027.
I've already told you they they cannot work without see go around Africa, go to Kenya, go to South Africa, go to Zimbabwe, go to Uganda, go to Sineagal.
You have to have one person who everybody's going to going to align with and and and support.
I think in Kenya or one of those countries. Was it Kenya? It was orange the orange coalition or something they called it.
All right, let's go back to the phone line. 02012770993 and 020 4657190. WhatsApp call. I think your call isn't working. I cannot hear you. So, you probably send a a voice note. Okay. Please.
99.3.
>> Hi, Kofi. Good morning, K. My name.
>> Welcome.
>> Yeah. Thanks. You see, I like your analysis. Okay. But you see it is um I mean to to a very large extent it is true. Um let's look at this you know rainbow coalition for example.
You will see clearly that you know the that coalition is not you know driven by any natural force. There are underlining you know personal interests. If you look in between you know the if you look in between the lines it's different you know if you're trying to compare that to maybe a bit obese you know coalition in quotes you know which you are seeing that you know people are naturally driven to it. people are you know coming together because they believe in something it's different because yesh you might think it's a genius idea that which is able to pull together a lot of people but if you if you read in between the lines there are personal interests you know you know in between so that's that's where I think the difference is and um to a very large extent um you know I I do not agree with you thank you very much >> thank you thank you I appreciate your time appreciate your time thank you so much >> all right 99.3 three. Oh, sorry about that. Please, uh, it's been happening. I think the person has been trying to call for a while. Please, if that is you, your line is not really working. Try another line. Um, 99.
>> Good morning, Mr. Kofi.
>> Good morning. Your name location, please.
>> My name is Jo and I'm calling you.
>> Okay.
>> See, let's be truth with us. Let's be truth here. You get saying what happened in 2023 will repeat itself in 2027. What happened in 2023?
What really happened in 2023?
>> That's the question.
>> Nothing.
>> Why you see they can only fool some of some of you? They can't fool me.
>> Are you tempted to believe that the vote that that that we voted in 2023 was what put them there? THEY THEY HAVE DONE THE CALCULATION. You see the the party structure or not structure that we are talking about my brother >> you coalition all of one person if people have gone their calculation you see as undivided as this oppositions are if election go free and fair and the vote were counted and presented to us okay this administration will not see number 10.
>> All right. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you so much. All right. Uh, interestingly, I didn't even tell you what I what happened in 2023. I just said it 23. I left it to your imagination. But hey, you have your point is well noted and I think you've said you spoken well. 99.3 >> your name please.
>> Okay. Okay. All right. Welcome. Welcome.
You see you don't mind call any radio station again but because of you know s things I've heard I said okay let me let me make some contributions you see you said it what what happened in 20 23 may let me put it put in another way may lie or is likely Let me use that. Use it that way. It's likely to happen again come 2027.
Anyway, I I have three, as far as I'm concerned, I have three people, three politicians in Nigeria that I I really, you know, let me say I I have political crush on them.
>> They are good luck, >> good luck, Obi and what's this man's name? Share. Yes, that this these three people. Good luck in >> Thank you. Thank you. You have political crush. The first That's the first for me. All my years of being on radio.
Political crush. Wow. I have to I have to get the clip so I can save it. 99.3.
Okay. Inana in Tel Aviv, Israel. Over to you.
Okay. In I think the line that WhatsApp has gone bad again. Um network issue.
Send a voice note please. I want to ask and I mean because um Peter Obby seems I mean he is he is um um in in in in ahead when it comes to the opposition candidates you know and in fact some even believe he won the last election.
Okay, like one of the callers said, um, one of the qu things I I I'm struggling is a question I keep asking myself and um, you know, maybe when when it comes to program I ask him why is he has been shy away from starting a political party. See, Obi is going to do to whatever party he is in what Jonathan did to PDP.
this um uh and I I'm I'm speaking as maybe if I'm a consultant of the the opposition.
This is what I would say. This attitude of I want to put my hand in a cookie jar. I want to put my hand in the pot of soup and take a piece of me, but I don't want to s my hands is not going to help Nigeria's opposition.
Okay. Why are you shying away from starting a political party?
Politics is not getting get out though.
It's not getting get out.
is is is is take control be in charge and control things because with the way he's saying it's going to be four years what is the fate is this is sustainable United Nations talk about sustainable development are you is there a sustainable a sustainable a plan what is the plan cuz if even if OB wins is going to be a good luck Jonathan situation it it may be um a fuber situation.
Where are where are you leading people to the people who are following you?
What is the what is the game plan when you win after you win? You will you retire to your farm? Will you retire to to to to your business? Will you go to Dubai and then leave everyone to himself and God for us all? And then what happened to PDP happens again.
I'm not even talking about cuz I do not know if his chances are as bright as Obi. I think Obia is you know is is is at the forefront. So what is the plan and why does he constantly shy away from why is he not from his own party? It's not rocket science. Sarak Dixon from the party. Is Saka Dixon more of a politician? Does he have more supporters? Does he have more voters?
Does he have more resources than Obi?
Kuangaso took charge of a political party. He became his own.
I I don't understand for the life of me why Obi hasn't formed didn't form his own political party.
And I just hope for his own sake and the sake of his supporters that there's no game that these ABC guys are going to pull on NDC guys are going to pull on him in NDC at the last minute.
At the last minute, Jonathan lost an election and and disappeared and and and the PDP was left for the strongest man or man or people to take.
And look at where the party is today. A word to the wise is enough.
What's the game plan?
See you guys tomorrow.
>> More conversation, more talk, more right after this.
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