Markets Forward | Look Ahead To Tomorrow's Trade: What Are Key Events | Stock Market News

Ajouté : 2026-05-12

[00:00:06]Markets wipe off nearly 12 lakh crore amid a broad-based selloff. Benchmarks end lower for the third straight session. Meanwhile, the rupee hits a fresh low of 95.74 against the dollar.

[00:00:21]The government revises the royalty structure for oil and gas producers to boost domestic production and encourage fresh investment. This comes at a time when energy security has come into sharp focus amid the Iran war. The move could significantly benefit OMGC and oil India.

[00:00:38]And we have the AI race which is now moving deeper into the enterprise space.

[00:00:43]Open AI floats a new entity backed by 19 partners to help businesses adapt to AI.

[00:00:50]A move that could intensify pressure on Indian IT firms.

[00:01:08]Hello and welcome to Markets Forward, your go-to show where we aim to get you all of the key data points to gear up for the next trading day. I'm Ritu Singh. With me is my colleague Akta Batra. And the markets today uh it's been under heavy selling pressure. You had both the front line indices close lower by almost 2%. It was a cut of more than 430 points on the nifty and a cut of about 1450 points on the Sensex. The IT pack seeing massive pressure as well.

[00:01:34]A >> well yes thanks Ru. Uh in fact we've got our viewers covered for the next 20 odd minutes with all of the big news and key developments on the last street top corporate voices and events to track.

[00:01:46]But like you mentioned it was definitely a very weak day for the markets. We didn't see any kind of resppite in today's trading session. In fact, uh we did have the Nifty which ended 430 points lower. The midcap index did take a large brunt of the selling pressure today. So down 2.5% for the midcap index with an advanced decline ratio which was extremely dismill ending at 1 is to3 with around only 1100 stocks advancing to over 3,500 stocks declining on the Bombay stock exchange. The Bank Nifty also saw significant pressure today. So down 1.6% for the Bank Nifty. For the Nifty itself, we ended below that 23,400 odd mark. So extremely weak day for us uh in today's trade and a large part of that sentiment negative was from the rupee which did not see any kind of appreciation in today's trading session.

[00:02:39]Ritu, >> that's right. In fact, it's hit a new record low. I mean each day it's sliding further today. 9574 was the low that we saw intraday but by the time uh you know now it's it's obviously closed at about 9562.

[00:02:55]So it has recovered a bit but still down 3/10en of a percent in the trading day today and that is on the back of what's happening with oil prices. Brent crude was up almost 3% today and add to that you had heavy FI selling uh you know 8 and a half thousand crores or so sold on Monday that has also increased the dollar demand. So that leaves rupee as one of the worst performing Asian currencies of 2026 has been been telling you. Uh it's down about 6% in 2026 and almost 11% in just the last 12 months.

[00:03:25]Earlier in the day uh you know RBI did intervene to smooth the fall but thereafter we of course saw rupee touching 9570 odd levels before it made a bit of a recovery. So uh where we go from here we'll have to see. Uh but let's get you the lineup of what we have in store for you today. We'll start with the top movers and shakers with Hormas Pakia. The big moves came from oil upstream and IT names, but the broader earning season also kept the markets busy. And last but not the least, we'll delve into the key market events to watch out for in tomorrow's trading session. So, let's go across to Horas for our first segment on the big ball, the top movers and shakers. Formers you know >> it was a forgettable day indeed for the markets and with the kind of selloff that the index has seen the last two sessions you've lost 18 lakh cr rupees in market cap over the last two days six lakh cr yesterday 12 lakh cr in today's session as well so below the 23400 mark now on the index leading the selloff today unsurprisingly were the IT names after all the developments surrounding open AI large cap IT midcap IT you look at large cap IT first tech Mahindra was the top loser. But HCL Tech, TCS, Infosys, all of them ending at multi-year lows. Infosys and TCS at the lowest since 2020. HCL Tech the lowest since 2023. You take a look at Midcap IT as well. There the pain was even more significant with Sonata Software after multiple downgrades after its results was down 9%. BRAOFT was down seven and Net Technologies 2 ended 6 and a half% lower in today's session. You take a look at the earnings reactions elsewhere and the negative ones more prominent.

[00:05:00]JSW Energy was down 7%, so was Anantraj.

[00:05:03]But look at the big ones. Zoran Pro was down 13% and Mobiquake and that ended 11% lower as well, further extending its losses from the IPO price and of course from the post listing high. Look at the news makers today predominantly stocks that bucked the trend. OMGC and Oil India of course for the announcements made by the government early in the morning. 7 and a half% higher for Oil India, 5% for OGC and CMPDI, Coal India's uh subsidiary, the Central Mine Planning and Design Institute at one point was up 20%. Managed to end with gains of 10. But take a look at the jewelry names. They were battered and bruised yesterday. Today was no different. Titan was down three and a half, Kalyan Jewelers down six, Senko down 6 and a half. And these two sessions have now meant that all these jewelry companies have lost 50,000 cr rupes in market cap. And of course lastly, stocks that were at 52- week lows in today's session. Bahendra Holidays was one such name. Swiggy, Patangjali foods, all of them ending at 52- week lows in today's session. Back to you guys.

[00:06:03]>> Okay, Arm was definitely a very tough day and lot of stocks in the red but shares of oil upstream companies surged in trade. This was after the government cut royalty rates on the production of crude oil and gas. Sonel Budra joins in with details and what this means for the sector.

[00:06:21]>> Well, it is an important update coming in for the upstream companies, the likes of OMGC and oil India because the government has gone ahead and cut royalty on oil and gas production. Now remember, these companies pay a percentage of royalty to the government on the production that they have for oil and gas. Now for onshore, it has been cut to 10% from 16.66%.

[00:06:40]For offshore, it has been cut to 8% from 9.09%. And there is a cut on natural gas royalty as well. It has been cut from 10 to 8% under the flat deduction formula.

[00:06:50]Uh additional GST link savings will also be seen. Now remember GST has been an issue on royalty. It is at 18%. Uh so the indication is there could be some GST link savings as well on the percentage cut that we are seeing in royalty. Vantaas Rajasthan fields will see royalty rates decline from 16.67% to 10.6% and it is done to incentivize exploration and domestic hydrocarbon production. uh under the hydrocarbon exploration licensing policy for the blocks which are offered after 2019 they will see actually a further cut in royalty as well. So this will be positive. Of course we need to understand how much of those blocks are under OMGC in all India under the new policy after 2019. Uh CLSA has put out a note uh on OGC. It's their high conviction bet with a target price of 405. Uh they talk about how it'll increase the fair value of both OMGC and oil India. For OMGC it'll increase by 7 to 9%, for oil India by 9 to 11%. And there were fears that you know since the government has not increase petrol and diesel prices some of these upstream companies will see an increase in taxation. So they say this fear must be done away with now because uh there is a royalty cut that has come by. Just putting some numbers forth oil and gas production in the country it has been falling. In fact oil production fell for the 11th consecutive year in FI26. Oil production fell 2 and a half% by in FI26. It is down 22% since FI 15 and in FI26 gas production also fell 3.7%.

[00:08:14]Now if we compare these two upstream companies OMGC and oil and oil Oil India versus global upstream players they are actually trading at a discount and that is because of a possibility of government intervention tax policies despite it being high dividend yield uh names. So compare it with something like Exon Mobile you have shell Saudi Aramco all of them are trading anywhere between 15 to 16 times whereas all India and OMGC anywhere between 8 to nine times.

[00:08:38]So just wanted to put forth how they are valued versus global upstream players.

[00:08:44]Thanks Sonel for bringing us that update. Let's invite our guests for the show. Jay Bala of Cash the Chaos and Sudep Bandupad of Indie Trade Capital are with us now. Gentlemen thanks very much for your time here today. Jay uh you know first on the market itself uh you know it's it's been a very very tough session. We're closing with a cut of two uh 436 points now uh you know the broader markets which had sort of held up last week again profit booking or whatever you'd call it uh you know closing with deep losses as well. Where do you see the near-term levels on these?

[00:09:21]Yeah, see I I pointed out uh last week that the Nifty in the very short term is due for a pullback towards 23600 to 2300. It's done that. Uh but it looks like that you know the 23300 is level as it saw today is not sufficient. Uh probably needs one more bounce up and then uh a low below today's low that will probably complete around 23100.

[00:09:42]Once that's done, I'm anticipating the markets to turn very bullish from there on. Uh because the next leg is the most powerful leg under the elate wave model.

[00:09:51]Uh so the fact that the nifty midcap index have scaled fresh all-time highs that's a bullish sign. You know the undercurrens are bullish there is um you know it's it's now u uh uh the markets strength is within the uh broader markets. that's going to spread to the uh large cap soon once the nifty completes the short-term price structure. We have uh fresh alltime highs on capital goods, midcap and the nifty farmer. Although nifty farmer is a lightweight uh so you know once this short-term primo was done um we're going to see a turnaround for the nifty.

[00:10:27]That's my opinion.

[00:10:30]>> Okay. All right. Uh so that's uh what you're tracking on the technicals J. But Sudep um just wanted your thoughts because the rupee has seen significant weakness. We've seen the FII sell significantly. There was an 8,000 cr cell figure in yesterday's trading session. How exactly are you approaching the markets in the medium term with this data?

[00:10:53]>> Well, I think unfortunately the oil prices staying where it is doesn't help the rupee. Uh the way uh the more the pressure on oil prices, the more the pressure on rupee and it's a reality.

[00:11:06]it's extremely difficult for RBI to control this situation. So maybe we'll be have to go back to the 2013 kind of a playbook and uh uh think of some kind of a NRI bond issuance uh or some such mechanism whereby lot of uh uh uh you know dollar can come to the country and rupee can recover. Uh you know without that I think uh to stem the rot as far as rupee is concerned will be extremely difficult. uh you know the scenario either the war stops and the oil prices starts going down or RBI does something drastic to bring in lot of currency to the country. These are the only two scenarios to control rupees fall. Now under the circumstances if I have to look at stock market and uh you know do some stock pick I think if I am a uh you know kind of a conservative investor I will go back to my favorite pharma sector and start picking up good quality pharma stocks.

[00:12:06]Fortunately pharma is in a place where probably it was 20 years back and it's in the cusp of a take takeoff. uh there are fantastic companies look at some what they have done 70% of their portfolio is branded and not the typical uh uh you know generics and APIs so it's getting into a different league altogether and definitely worth buying you can look at some of the other pharma companies which are quoting at a reasonable valuation like an orurbindo pharma where the regulatory challenges also are coming under control or a domestic focused pharma company like a mankind pharma so some of these pharma companies can be picked up from a medium to long-term perspective for building a good portfolio which can withstand this volatility.

[00:12:48]>> Okay. Interesting to hear your interest in the pharmaceutical space. Sadep. So uh you're liking pharmaceutical as a sector from a medium to long-term perspective. But the other sector which was in focus in today's trading session were the IT names like DCS Infosys and HCL Techch. All of them hit fresh 52- week lows after openai launched a new company which will help organizations build and deploy AI systems for everyday work. Remma joins in with more to help understand how significantly this can impact the Indian IT companies.

[00:13:26]Thanks so much for that. So the latest is the launch of open AI deployment company and this marks an important shift in the AI landscape because now AI companies are moving from AI models AI tools as into now the enterprise service layer the implementation as a service layer. So on 11th of May, OpenAI formally launched what it calls the OpenAI deployment company, a new enterprise services firm and the structure is very formidable. 19 global investment partners led by TPG. There's Bane Capital Advent, Brookfield as co-leads, Goldman Sachs, Soft Bank, Walt, Pinkis are also amongst the backers. And you also have consulting companies like Mckenzie and Bay & Company amongst others. And these are not just investors, they are partners.

[00:14:05]And to hit ground running, OpenAI also made an acquisition tomorrow, an AI consulting firm which directly on day one brings on board 150 forward deployment engineers and enterprise clients including Tesco, Virgin Atlantic and Mattal. And this follows Anthropic's own move, a very similar move just 7 days earlier on 4th of May when it launched another AI native enterprise services firm and this was backed by Blackstone, Helman and Friedman, Goldman Sachs, General Atlantic, Apollo amongst many others. Uh now why does this matter for Indian IT companies? Well, two reasons. One is access and this is important because OpenAI and Anthropics partners are the PE companies and PE companies collectively sponsor thousands of portfolio companies. So you get direct access to those portfolio companies and the industry is asking the question that can a PE firm maybe mandate an open AI first or a cloud cloud first uh deployment across the entire portfolio basically bypassing your traditional IT vendors completely that requests for proposals etc. will soon become a formality and the second one is contextual knowledge. Now Indian IT company's mot was always their deep long-standing relationships and the knowledge they acquired over a period of time but now you've got consultants like Mackenzie and Bane who sit inside these companies deploy co so they can very well design AI native workflows and own the strategy layer. Uh and this is a discussion we've had with so many Indian IT companies over the last many quarters now about AI's impact and risk and the answer from them was always the same.

[00:15:29]We're needed because we understand a client's messy legacy infrastructure. We can use the AI models ourselves and drive outcomes and own the risk. And own the risk is important, right? Who owns the I mean who takes responsibility when something goes wrong. But now take open AI as an example. Using the tomorrow acquisition and the accompanied 150 engineers, the AI engineers are directly embedded inside the client organization.

[00:15:52]So they can identify the opportunities, redesign the workflows uh and use agentic AI. So I think the fear now is that the open AIs and the anthropics will capture the strategy and design layer and the Indian IT companies could be left with just running the business kind of work. Of course it's a fear right now but then you'll also ask the question right Indian IT companies themselves have partnerships with these AI companies. Infores has partnered both with open AI and anthropic. They've integrated codeex into topaz AI platform they're building claw power agents. So I spoke to a few analysts and their view is that just how every company has a direct channel and a partner sales channel. Uh and that dynamic will likely play out with Indian IT companies and these LLMs. But I do suspect that this could be a pivotal moment where anthropic and open AI themselves are creating the services companies that can transform business processes. And remember big tech companies have very deep pocket. So the fear is the potential for disruption is real. The AI encroachment is taking place.

[00:16:51]J very quickly since we're tight on time on the IT space abituaries have been written a little you know far too often uh key levels or key upside from here the the break of March low was essential for completion of the bearish structure and u so the nifty it can bottom somewhere between now to some to 26,000 on the nifty IT index if it had to cross uh 29700 I would say the bottom is in And so you know the fact that it's broken the March low is in a very important uh formation for me and I like it that the markets are going below that level.

[00:17:30]>> All right. Uh Sudep what about you? Do you think you'd be brave enough to buy any of these stocks at fresh 52 week lows?

[00:17:39]>> Not really Eka. I think uh you know the disruption in it is real and what we are seeing as far as AI is concerned I think probably is just the beginning. It's it's got a long way to go and lot more disruption to happen. Every week there are new developments. It's always better to wait and watch and understand these developments to certain extent before rushing to buy something. Uh I would suspect most of Indian IT companies themselves are doing that before rushing in one way or the other. So I think it's better to wait in the sidelines and watch uh uh the entire uh uh AI related activities unfold.

[00:18:20]>> Okay. All right, Sudep as well as J we're going to let you go on that note.

[00:18:23]Thanks very much for joining in and taking us through all of the stocks and your opinion on it. Well uh from Moiqu Saturn Credit Care, it was a busy day for the broader market earnings. Dyani joins in with the key highlights and a wrap of all of the numbers that came out from the broader markets. Dyani over to you.

[00:18:43]>> Well, the earnings growth momentum continues. Let me start with butterfly Gandhiati. It was a healthy quarter that was in line with street estimates.

[00:18:50]Revenue growth was driven by the strong traction in industrial cookers amidst the recent LPG crisis.

[00:18:57]Revenue as a result was up 17% to 218 crores with Eida seeing a 20% uptick and PAT also seeing a 26% uptick on a year-on-year perspective. Saturn Credit Care is the next one. It was a strong part of the company with recovery seen continuing. Asset quality has remained strong with the non-Mfi business growth also seeing strong momentum. Management is now targeting for anywhere between 25 and 30% growth for FI27. Last up is Mobyquick. It was the second straight profitable quarter for the company with the payments momentum seen going strong and margins improving across the Eida and PAT levels. uh strong UPI growth and NBFC approval are key positives this time around. As a result, revenue from operations was up 88% on a year perspective to 268 crores with Abida and Pat both going from a loss last year to a profit this particular quarter.

[00:19:51]>> Dyani, thanks very much for that. Uh with that, it's time for us to take a short break. But up next, we're going to get you the top corporate voices along with the key market events to watch out for on the other side.

[00:20:20]Welcome back. Here's the top corporate voices of the day. Indian Hotels is targeting doubledigit growth in FI27 with the potential to cross 15% if demand picks up further in the second half. Speaking to CNBC TV18, their management said it plans a capex investment of up to 1,300 cr rupes in the year.

[00:20:38]SMA SGS technology told CNBC TV18 it expects FI27 exports to cross 1500 crores and remains on track to deliver 30% growth IITA margin is expected around 10.5% in FI27 the company added that logistics remains a key challenge amid the ongoing West Asia crisis and Fractal Analytics co-founder told CNBC TV8 the company expects stronger revenue growth in FI27 compared to the previous year he added R&D spending is set to rise to 10% of revenue focused on Coentic, the firm's multi- aent AI platform, even as the company targets an improvement in gross margins.

[00:21:19]>> All right, and before we wrap, we'll bring you some key market events to watch out for. Pastna's here to tell us more. Well, first up, let us look at some of the key important counters that will be reporting their Q4 numbers tomorrow. Now companies like Bharti, Airel, Tata Motors, Sipla, HPCL, TVS Motors, Kes Technology, Cromton, Greaves, all these companies will be reporting their Q4 FI26 numbers tomorrow. So we'll be keeping a track on that as well. Now cabinet meeting is held tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. So that's also one of the key important event. And mind you that along with Q4 numbers, Bharti Airtel will also mull reorganization of its shareholding framework of subsidiary companies. So even that will be in focus. Now let us move on to global economic cues. Now IEA monthly oil report will be out tomorrow around 1:30 p.m. In terms of European data, GDP Q1 numbers will be out in Europe and even US will be keeping an eye out on that as well as the PPI numbers will be out. Now mind you in terms of other events Trump to visit China and the it it starts from 13th of May to 15th. So that also marks as one of the important event. Now UK king's state opening uh speech to the parliament will take place tomorrow. So even that is one of the key important factors. And lastly, South Korea and US will hold high level defense talks in Washington on May 12th to 13 to discuss the transfer of wartime operational control of the combined forces. So that's is also will be on top of our radar. So all in all, looks like quite an eventful day tomorrow.

[00:22:58]>> All right, Aasa, we'll leave it at that.

[00:23:00]Thanks very much for joining in. And on that note, Aka and I will also take your leave. But stay with us. More news and updates continue right here on CNBC.