Trump Just Saw Something in Ukraine—Now He’s Rethinking It

本站添加: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]It's Wednesday, May 6, 2026.

[00:00:03]I think Trump may be rethinking a bit about Ukraine and about Zalinski. Now, this is a really interesting thing because once Trump once he gets something in his head, it kind of sticks like Russia is not bad but kind of good and maybe even Christian and Zalinski, oh yeah, you know, they're corrupt in Ukraine and that sort of thing. But there's a greater operating system in his head about who are winners and losers. And I think that might be shifting. The calculation may then also shift. Let me show you what I'm talking about. So here uh what we saw recently was this was May 1st breaking its official. President Trump is withdrawing 5,000 US troops from Germany after Chancellor Merch criticized uh President Trump's Iran operation. Good. Tell NATO to take care of themselves. Okay. Trump orders the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Now Trump was already philosophically inclined to do that sort of thing. Ben Hajes, former uh NATO uh commander, says, "This is short-sighted.

[00:01:02]This short-sighted decision will not hurt Germany. It only hurts us. It does nothing to protect our strategic interests over seas. We cannot defend America from Texas or Georgia or North Carolina. We need forward friends and forward access." So, what's actually the real picture about NATO? Let's let's say that we pay too much. Let's let's just say that, okay? So to plate those that are saying, "Well, we're paying too much NATO." Yeah, but what do you get out of NATO? You get credible force projection ability because you can operate with these guys. They get a an umbrella.

[00:01:34]True. But we get credible force projection. So, okay. So, that's what's happening there. Now, Trump already kind of has in his head like these Europeans are bad. Kind of like American liberals are bad in his mind, right? If you're on the American left or if you're European, you're kind of in the same kind of place in his mind. Now, a couple days later, we see this. The US State Department has approved possible sale of Ukraine to Ukraine of more than 1500 extended range JDAM bombs and related equipment worth 376 million uh 373.6 million. The sale will support foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States. The department said it also stated that potential deal would not alter the military balance in the region, but they're willing to sell it now. They're not willing to just give it. That's horrible. Biden did that with 350 billion. I'll explain why that number is wrong in just a moment, but but he's willing to do that. Now, there's something shifting here subtly.

[00:02:29]He was in this interview with Hugh Hewitt. Um Trump said that Ukraine is losing territory on the front line, but he praised the extraordinary effectiveness of Ukrainian troops. I I think he's being more impressed over time. And as Ukraine keeps hitting Russia in a in a bad way where it hurts, I think he's going to continue down that path. I don't know how far it'll get him, but just listen to the interview here.

[00:02:54]>> Mr. President, I'm very disappointed in Europe. I'm a big Atlanticist. I'm very disappointed in Europe. I'm glad you're taking the trips out of Germany.

[00:03:01]However, >> okay, so that is a shift for conservatives cuz cuz conservatives were like not international like me. They weren't internationalists like let's all you know sing kumbaya at the UN. But we have our interest, they have their interest, our interests align. We're we're going to stop the Russians from moving forward. that sort of thing. And this is much more of a solid ideological MAGA uh position than what most conservatives like me had been. Okay.

[00:03:29]>> I'm very encouraged by Zalinski.

[00:03:31]President Zalinski sent the >> that's new. You're I mean listen to him talk about Zalinski and then how Trump will respond.

[00:03:38]>> UAE all their anti- drone stuff. Do you feel better about Zalinski now?

[00:03:43]>> Well, first of all, we have great drone stuff and we have great anti- drone stuff. you know, when he offered the uh he's he's a tricky person. He's a tricky guy.

[00:03:52]>> Okay. So, he still has this in his head about Zilinsky. He really doesn't like Zalinski, but he's got to grudgingly admit that they do have some stuff.

[00:03:59]Well, we have great stuff, too. You have really expensive stuff. They have really cutting edge inexpensive stuff. Just But listen, >> and uh we want to get a settlement and you know, they are losing territory, but it's it's at a big cost to Russia and to them.

[00:04:14]>> Look, that's that's a pretty big admission. They're they're losing territory, he says, but it's at a big loss to Russia and them. He he keeps trying to find ways to prove his viewpoint, but he keeps adding more that's positive about Ukraine in the process.

[00:04:30]>> And I like Zalinsky. I've always sort of gotten along with him other than the one moment in the White House, which I thought was a little aggressive on his behalf. You know, the Oval Office that I'm sure you perhaps remember. But I the vice president Biden gave him $350 billion dollar worth of money and equipment and everything else which is ridiculous that he >> and it's ridiculous that he repeats it because that's not actually the figure but I'll show you that in a moment.

[00:04:56]>> Did that but he did it but you know the tr and I give I I I sell them equipment full course. We sell we sell it to the European Union >> and and he's proud of that. I'm not but as long as it gets there it gets there.

[00:05:10]We sell it to NATO basically and they give it out. I will say this, they fight because whether the equipment is great or or less than great. They are able to fight and >> they're better than any of our NATO allies.

[00:05:24]>> Big monster, they've held it back for, you know, >> they're better than anybody in Europe in this fight. At least they're helping.

[00:05:31]>> Well, Europe has been very disappointing. And one >> Okay, now he he's still on that line of Europe's disappointing. and Hugh Hewitt is adding to it that Ukraine's actually doing pretty well. One of >> the things that came out of our skirmish with Iran, I think, is that NATO wasn't there for us. You know, we stand >> and there's a reason for that. We're not going to go into that right now of why they weren't there, but okay. So, that's where Trump is in that interview. Again, there's a change in tone. Gary Kasparov recognizes change in tone. Trump must always be a winner in his mind. So, and this is the core of what I'm trying to tell you. Trump allies himself with the winner. It's like I'm still a Mets fan.

[00:06:08]It's been a really rough line. The Mets are a baseball team if you're from Europe and you don't know. Um, it's been really rough to be a Mets fan for the last like 30 years. Like they had a great time in ' 86, ' 89, a little bit in the 2000s, but for the most part. So, I'm still a Mets fan. Now, Trump's like the kind of guy that's what whichever team just won. And I'm not imputing him.

[00:06:29]I'm just saying the way that he operates is that whichever team just won, oh, they're the greatest, and he wants to bask in the glory of that. Okay. So Trump must always be a winner in his mind. So Ukraine can't win was effective propaganda on him. It won't be enough to turn him against Putin. But when Ukraine is finally victorious, Trump will say that he fully supported them the whole time. But he's shifting a little bit. I think I and I I think that psychology is really interesting. The psychology goes back to his dad, Fred Trump, who was teaching him like, and again, you can see this in documentaries or books about Trump. Uh you know, be you're going to be a you're a killer, you're a king, right? like like he's set apart like he's something special and I I think he just has to identify with whoever is winning. Um now back to the 350 billion thing. I posted this 350 billion on Ukraine. Here's the answer from the US government special inspector for the operation Atlantic Resolve. Uh this is the US government source on Ukraine oversight. It's not 350 billion. There's total appropriations here over that four years that amounts to 100 something billion. And uh so it's nowhere near what Trump says, but he repeats it and then he believes it. Here's the money graph as well. This Michael McFall, former ambassador to Russia in the in the Obama administration. Money graph looks like abandonment to me. And so what he's showing here in this graph is that this is the blue is US and then there was the big package here and then Trump came into office uh over here and that was the end of any US direct support. Now they would, you know, NATO can purchase it and supply it, but that was the end of it. And that's and Trump is taking a victory lap about that. But even then, he doesn't have support from his base. And I'll show you that at the very end. When he claims to be a populist, his his base doesn't necessarily agree with doing that. Now, even if they're America first, there's still a large segment of Republicans like me that aren't like that. Okay.

[00:08:20]Trump administration dramatically cut economic and military assistance to Ukraine to near zero. Vice President Vance bragged about this fact. If I'm wrong, please provide the specific facts. Michael McFall is an academic.

[00:08:32]He's at Stanford. So that's is essentially what academic should be doing. Now, he said, "And please never accuse me of willful dishonesty," which is what Mark Theson, who's a Republican strategist, was doing. Why do you keep saying this when you know it's untrue?

[00:08:45]It's one thing to be mistaken, but this is becoming willfully dishonest. And so, they're getting into the spat a little bit. Uh willful dishonesty. That's an outrageous claim. you are better than that or at least I thought so and now McFall explains that he read his article and he says okay I I read it I don't don't agree with you but I read it so just to read your column now I understand your argument I just disagree with it you cite facts that you think are important I cite facts that I and Europeans including Ukrainians think are important Trump is allegedly providing intelligence to Ukraine to help with deep strikes so that is it appears to be that is that does appear to be true I have praised Trump for this before here.

[00:09:23]I agree with you. I do wish that he would stop threatening to cut it off, though. Okay, so that also appears to be true. Making money off Ukraine's war is not help. I personally find this disgusting. Again, I'd prefer that we are helping Ukraine because helping a democracy uh to thwart an authoritarian aggressor neighbor is like we're that's the good guys with the white hats, right? But we're at least selling it to NATO and it's better than nothing, right? If Trump is ready to give a NATOike security guarantee to Ukraine, why not just let them into NATO, right?

[00:09:55]Okay, they will be in NATO. Just give it time. Trump won't be there forever and in a future administration, they'll be let into NATO. Okay, let's assume that two people can interpret the facts differently as either abandonment me or more for Ukraine than Biden ever did for you, but disagree not disagreeably by calling each other willfully dishonest.

[00:10:15]That that's the right tone. And okay, now who is this guy Mark Theson? Mark Theson is actually a political operative from the conservative side who is apparently it looks like changing Trump's mind a bit. Okay. Uh he's a Washington Post columnist who had become one of Trump's favorite outside advisers on foreign policy. Ties has told people that he changed Trump's mind on Ukraine.

[00:10:36]Trump last year invited him to the White House for dinner and complimented his wife's looks. Okay, that's a little strange, but okay. So here, let me just show you a couple paragraphs in this.

[00:10:45]He's doing more to help Ukraine than Biden ever did, Dies declared in a piece ranking in the best decisions of the year for the second Trump presidency. A Post opinion editor Adam O'Neal has told journalists that Tissson's calls with Trump regarding Ukraine were influential in persuading Trump to continue to take the country's side and the conflict in the conflict in the face of some Republicans wi which were pushing for a quick settlement with Russia. So that's good. I mean, I'm glad that Tissson is doing what he's doing there. Okay, so a little bit more Tissson 59 reflects a broader shift in Trump's orbit away from the media figures like Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson. Those guys were just taking them all the wrong direction. Um, and again, Tissson was uh part of previous Bush administration, I believe, or a speech writer or something. I don't remember what he was. And toward advisers linked to wars that defined the Bush years. Trump has infuriated some anti-interventionist allies and increasingly boosted pro-war figures like Fox Radio host uh Mark Lavine whom he defended against criticism from other conservative media figures. Okay. And that's because Mark Lavine is all in against uh against Iran with Israel and that's where that comes from. But but Tissa is not not doing a bad job here with what he's doing influencing Trump the right direction. Okay. Then we have Francis Fukuyama. Francis Fukiyama is famous for having written The End of History and The Last Man in which he says, "Well, we're just now to all democracies." Well, it kind of backfired a little bit, but nonetheless, listen to Fuki Fukyama's argument. He says, "Trump and Putin have been uh convinced for a long time that Ukraine is losing and cannot possibly win this war." Yet, now here we are in year five and the Russian victory that they assumed was inevitable has not happened. That's interesting. So what Putin was trying to do in October, November, December last year was saying, "Look, it's inevitable. Just see this ground in the Donbos and it can be over." Right? Just listen to Fukuyama.

[00:12:44]>> One of the big problems I think is that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have been convinced for a long time that Ukraine was losing the war and that there was no way that it could possibly win the war. and a lot of his political posturing has been based on the uh kind of assumption of an inevitable Russian victory. And yet, you know, we're into year five and it has >> That's right. What if the inevitable Russian victory isn't inevitable? He thinks like Trump really thinks or thought that Russia was going to win and how can you take on a country three times your size and that sort of thing, right? Okay. But what if that shifts?

[00:13:23]Here's Gary Kasparov talking about the shift. Gary Kasparov says that Putin is paranoid after European intel report says that the Russian leader is tightening security. But listen how Putin has to process things.

[00:13:34]>> There was a kind of consensus that Russia would easily win.

[00:13:37]>> But this war now looks unwinable and we can just hear it by just reading you know just even even proar bloggers now they express doubts that Putin can deliver. And that's you know that's the greatest threat to Russian dictator if people believe he's weak. weakness is something that always leads always led to the disaster.

[00:13:58]>> Yeah. So if it's unwinable and I'm seeing more and more mill bloggers coming out, Russian mail bloggers coming out saying like, "Hey, this isn't going anywhere. We're losing. What's going on?" And yeah. Okay. Last little bit I want to leave you with is this from uh President Ronald Reagan understood the need to foster democracy and freedom.

[00:14:14]This is from the Reagan Institute. Uh now more than 40 years later, do Americans still believe that America should be the one leading the charge?

[00:14:21]Okay. And so this um scholar from the Reagan Institute is answering the question >> those very same questions. Uh does America have a strategic interest in advancing democracy around the world?

[00:14:32]Does it have a strategic interest in even being engaged on the global stage?

[00:14:35]We hear so much in Washington especially about the you know isolationism kind of increasing among the American people and that Americans want to turn inward. What we found from our polling is that that's simply not true. It's not true among the American people and it's not true among Republicans. Um, >> do you define in that poll whether that includes kinetic military action or you know what that looks like? Do people understand?

[00:15:00]>> Yeah, we ask about support for a strong military and and um a global US military pres presence and and those numbers are high. But here's one to the topic of this panel that that I want to emphasize um on this question. Does America have a moral obligation to stand up for human rights and democracy around the world?

[00:15:20]Uh, over 80% of Americans say yes. And over 80% of MAGA Republicans say yes.

[00:15:26]The MAGA Republican number is actually several points higher than the overall number among the >> How about that? Several points higher.

[00:15:33]Americans think that. And we do have this moral obligation from the Budapish memorandum. And so, yeah, that's there.

[00:15:39]All right. So, Trump must pressure Putin. I keep saying that for a reason.

[00:15:42]I'm going to keep saying that and I'll leave you with this. This is the metaphor of what I think is going on right now. I think there's a little bit to here's Vladimir Putin and here's Donald Trump and here's Sinsky and he's starting to rethink like maybe there's something maybe they maybe they have a shot. Maybe they're hotter, right? Okay.

[00:16:02]So, that's that's where we are. Okay.

[00:16:04]Tell me what you think about my thesis, my friends. Put in the comments below. I try to read as many as I can. Thank you for the time, the likes, the shares, and the subscribes. And thank you for being the kind of person who cares about Ukraine.