Pokemon Investing Nightmare- Everyone Selling at 80% in 10 Years

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Got another Pokemon investing rant video. This one's about a exit strategy that I've been hearing in my comment section a lot that I found kind of silly. And that is the I'll just sell it 80% of the market to undercut everyone else strategy. And this strategy is going to get Ascended Heroes ETBs not to MSRP, not to $40, not to $0, but to negative infinity.

[00:00:27]Mathematically, not literally. That's right, guys. If everyone employs this strategy in my comment section, Ascended Heroes will fall to negative0, negative infinity, actually. And uh I think I think you guys will agree with me by the end of this video. So, my whole exit strategy video was about, you know, maybe consider taking your profits, not necessarily this year, but before these boxes get completely out of hand price-wise. I showed you what it looks like in 5 to 10 years of investing a Sun and Moon box. $1,500, $3,500, $11,000. Like, they're very expensive and they don't move. You go to the TCG Player charts, which is not the end- all beall, as I've said in that video, and there's maybe 10 listings in the past year. And so, the average person that doesn't have connections or any sales data, they're going to have trouble selling this stuff. And so the whole point of my exit strategy video was you know consider taking profits earlier than 5 to 10 years. I think wholeheartedly that this stuff will go up uh you know forever. But I also think that sometimes money now is better than money later especially because it's guaranteed today and not guaranteed tomorrow. So, the a lot of people in my comment section were like, "Well, Brian, I'll just um you know, in 10 years, if a a box of freaking I don't know, Palo Evolved is $3,000, I'll just list it on TCT Player for 80% of that uh and undercut everyone." And I'm like, "Okay, that's cute. No one else has had that idea." Oh, [ __ ] there's another one. Oh, and there's another one. And oh, here's another one.

[00:02:04]There's like 10 comments that say that.

[00:02:06]And there's a lot of people thinking that for sure. And I'm going to tell you why that strategy will get the box price mathematically to negative infinity.

[00:02:18]Let's say uh for the sake of keeping numbers easy. Let's say in 10 years freaking Twilight Masquerad's a,000 bucks and they're moving really slow.

[00:02:26]There's a few listings every month or two. Uh they're not moving very fast, but hey, it went up to $1,000. you know, masle top. Well, someone who needs liquidity fast, they're like, "Oh, man.

[00:02:37]$1,000. Like, I bought this for $300.

[00:02:40]I'm okay selling it 80%." So, they list it for $800. Okay. Well, they're going to be a-ok. Okay. If one individual person does that, great. The problem is, again, 10 people in my little comment section alone and probably hundreds of others all have this same idea. They're all going to list at 80% of market to undercut everyone else. Let's think about that for a minute. So, let's say five people. Now, this is again an item that there's not very many of. Believe it or not, Twilight Masquerade, the chart will look very similar to Cosmic Eclipse. Now, there will not be very many in 10 years for thousands of dollars. So, five people decide they look at the markets a,000 bucks. They're like, "Oh, I'll just take 800."

[00:03:21]Okay, that's the new market price now.

[00:03:25]So, then you know the sixth, seventh, eighth person, it's like, "Oh, your market price is 800. Well, I bought it at 300, so I'll just take 80% of $800.

[00:03:32]It'd be fine, you know? So, I'm not a mathematician, but let's say that's like $675 or whatever. Okay. And then everyone else is like, "Oh, $675. Like, I don't need that much. I I'll just I'll take 80%. I don't need to be greedy." So, they list it for, you know, $495, whatever it is. And then, do you see what I'm saying? If if everyone if everyone's exit strategy is to just take 80% of market the market price goes down infinitely.

[00:04:05]You cannot take a percentage of a thing and expect a finite number. That is not mathematically possible. Now of course in reality mathematics and human behavior do not coincide. I know that. I don't literally think Ascended here as ETBs will literally go to zero but because what's going to happen is you know if market price is a,000 for non- Timmy's and the Timmy's are listing at 80% of a,000 and enough of them get the price down to 500 at some point the intelligent money is going to go oh wow 2 months ago this was a th000 now it's 500 I'm going to buy them all up so I'm not stupid obviously I know the math mathematics don't coincide with reality but like that's the logic magic that people think works. And something that mathematics and reality do have in common is this strategy is why crypto and NFTTS go to zero. Like crypto and NFTts, there's a market price and people make a profit. They whatever they're they're they got money on paper. they're rich on paper and they're like, "Well, I don't want to wait for my, you know, um um anal coin to to sell for $1,000. I'm just going to sell it for $800 and get rid of it. I'm going to cash out." And then everyone else does the same thing.

[00:05:28]And they're all competing on price. They all want to be the lowest priced seller so they can get rid of it. And then that's how Analcoin goes down to $0.

[00:05:38]And that literally goes down to zero dollars because unlike Pokemon cards, 99.9999999 repeating percent of cryptos and NFTts don't actually have any like value, any like intrinsic value. It's just literally a big greater fool's theory, but you can see it. You can see the math in action when it looks to crypto. Those crashes, that's what's happening. It's people that are all rich on paper that are okay taking a loss under market because they're still profiting and everyone does that and that's how things go to zero.

[00:06:11]And you know this logic this exit strategy logic again for an individual for the people fast enough that does work for the people that sold anal coin before everyone else even at a loss compared to market price they still came out very much ahead. This strategy does work for individuals. I am not debating that at all. The point is people think this is like a good exit strategy. You better get out of Pokemon and anal coin before everyone else or you are screwed if that's your strategy. And business works the same way. You know, I've got a lot of investors that watch my stuff. I have a lot of business people that watch my stuff. There's this crazy idea right now that to be a new Pokemon card business. You need to compete on price.

[00:06:59]A lot of new people do this. They want to be the nice guy. They want to, you know, be good to their community. They want to they think it's going to help them get their name out there. Um, is this the drive-thru? They think it's going to help them get their name out there. And, you know, they've got a YouTube file, whatever. They want to compete on price. So, every single thing they list, they list lower than market.

[00:07:18]Well, I need to order scooters. So, we're going to pause. Pause for the the awkward transition.

[00:07:25]>> All right, go ahead and scoot on up.

[00:07:26]>> Thank you.

[00:07:28]I like that little slogan. Go ahead and scoot on up. It's cute. I need my phone for Apple Pass.

[00:07:36]Guy at Scooters is like, "You doing anything fun for Cinco de Mayo?" And I'm like, "Oh, is is that today?" I guess I'm going to scooters for Cinco de Mayo and bitching to YouTube about stupid business practices. Um, my mic is recording. Okay. Yeah. So, uh, where was I? The whole the whole new businesses, that's their their main strategy or their only strategy is to compete on price.

[00:08:00]That doesn't work and it's not scalable.

[00:08:03]And the folks that rely on that, they're cooked. They're they're on their deathbed because what they're doing is they're looking at big stores. They're looking at Hills Wholesale Gaming. They're looking at uh a nonTCG. They're looking at Eli.

[00:08:19]They're looking at Rudy, which by the way, in this market, none of them really compete on price either, which should tell you something because a year or two ago, they all did. Even, you know, Rudy and Anan's um Discord where, you know, or Patreon, whatever, like where you're basically paying for a better price.

[00:08:38]You're saving a little bit of money, but you're not you're not saving much. And that's no hate. I I competed on price for a while because I could and because they could because what they had that you knew people don't have is they had distribution. I had distribution where I could basically just order more and more and more as I sold out. If I sold out of Cala Evolved when I was selling it for 95 competing on price, well my Dros had like infinite of them. So I would just order more. So there was no motivation for me to be greedy per box. If I can make $10 profit a box and I could do that 10,000 times and boom, I got a gajillion million dollars. It's not possible anymore. So these new folks who are trying to do it that don't have distribution who get who have less liquidity than I do for collection buying, it's like that's cute now, but like it's not scalable. And the problem is you're building your entire fan base.

[00:09:38]that does taste like s'mores.

[00:09:41]You're building your entire customer base on uh price competition and being the best price. And as soon as you are not the best price anymore, they're going to move on to someone who's a better price because right now you might be able to compete on price temporarily.

[00:09:55]It's very possible right now. It's not scalable, but it's possible right now.

[00:09:58]But when the market turns and the big dogs like me and Rudy and Anan and uh Hills Wholesale Gaming and Safari Zone and Toten Troll or whatever, like when the market turns and we can all get infinite product again, we are going to destroy you. If if the market price of a booster box of whatever is like $200 and you're selling at $190, you're like the nicest guy in the world right now. But in a year when the market price of a booster box is lower than MSRP or even like barely over DRO costs, you're not going to be able to compete with someone like me who's buying it at $95 because you don't have DRO. And if you think your audience is going to stick with you because you were nice in 2025 like or six, whatever year it is, it's just not it's not going to happen.

[00:10:54]There's no mass loyalty. You will have some people who remain loyal, but if we're being honest, they probably don't have a lot of money. Like, you will have some day ones for sure. They will stick with you, but in mass, you don't stand a chance.

[00:11:10]And the same is true with like even Danny Phantom. Now, he Danny to his credit, he's been doing this for a long time. He's got enough people where even if 90% of his audience leaves, he's still doing better than me. Like, he's got a hell of a business model. But to to think for people to think that, you know, Danny's selling at MSRP today, oh, I'll always buy from Danny at MSRP.

[00:11:33]Like, you probably won't because he's going to adjust the price to market, too. But like, of course, you're buying from Danny at MSRP when he's selling freaking Chaos Rising at 160. Yeah, that's easy. But in a year when Chaos Rising's market price or whatever the equivalent market price is like 100, if Danny's selling at 105, you're going to buy from the random guy that's selling it for 100. It's just it's just how it is. You as an individual, you're the good one. You're the good guy. You're loyal.

[00:12:06]But most people aren't. And that's okay for him because he is a he's big enough where it doesn't matter. Like he's good.

[00:12:14]him and Rudy and blah blah blah blah blah blah blah like they're good they're fine competing on price now later whenever but like these new people who think that's going to be this scalable thing it's like rip broph maybe maybe these businesses they're just churning and burning they want some money and then in 2027 2028 they're back to their 9 to5s awesome you're not a business though you're just in the market like any scalper is. You're just nicer, more pure than whatever. Like, like that's what people say. They're like, "Oh, well, I'm just here, you know, temporarily or I don't plan on doing this forever." It's like, "Okay, aside from the eyes of the IRS, you're not a business to me.

[00:13:03]You're not. You're just here to make some money and head out. Like, you're not here for the long term. Therefore, I'm not talking to you." I think people need that reality check, though. So, what am I saying? If you're a new business, what am I saying you should do? I'm saying you should sell at market price or even higher because you're not going to win on price. You're not. I'm going to destroy you as soon as it's possible.

[00:13:28]I will end you and other people will end you harder.

[00:13:34]Way harder. Like you're done. You're cooked.

[00:13:38]Your loyal fans are with you because you compete on price. or not with you cuz I actually like you. So many people are doing this right now.

[00:13:47]Tough world out there, ladies and gentlemen. Cutthroat.

[00:13:52]Cutthroat.

[00:13:53]But that's how it is. Uh while we're talking about business strategy, what else do we got? Um oh, I'll talk about this in a different video, but I got an email from a guy a couple weeks ago and he was like, "Hey, Brian, I watch all your business content. I'm trying to start a business." Um, I I don't want to I I can't start content though because I think I'm gonna paraphrase a little bit, but this is pretty close to what the guy said. Like word for word, pretty close.

[00:14:21]I I I can't make content because I don't really have a following.

[00:14:28]You can't make this [ __ ] up. Think about that. I can't make content because I don't really have a following.

[00:14:35]That's like saying, "I'm not going to save money because I don't have money." It's like saying, "I'm not going to work out because I don't have muscles."

[00:14:48]Like, let me just like, let's just stay on that for a minute.

[00:14:54]I don't make videos because I don't have a following.

[00:14:58]What do you mean?

[00:15:03]It's It's this level of audacity that's why people are unsuccessful.

[00:15:08]Do you think I inherently had a following?

[00:15:12]Do you think DJ's Poke Center inherently had a following? Nomics, do you think he inherently like they made content to get the following? That's why they have a following. They made content. Again, I the the money thing is one, but I I think muscle I think muscle or lack of fat is the best comparison to that. It's like, think about that. Think about you go to you go to a gym or you follow a personal trainer. You follow uh you follow that guy that's like, "Welcome to the gym." You follow that guy. Imagine you DM welcome to the gym guy and you're like, "Hey, man. I uh I really I like your content. I like watching you do workout videos, but I don't really lift because I don't have muscle."

[00:15:54]Holy [ __ ] Imagine the look on that guy's face when you said that. He'd be like, "Don't welcome to the gym." like it's silly. You need to make content.

[00:16:05]You need to build a following. If you want to compete in this very very intense competitive business world, you've got to make content. And you won't have a following for a while. You You won't. It's just not It's not how it works. It's not fair. Life's not fair.

[00:16:21]Like, you're going to start at zero just like everyone else did. And I think what's hilarious is again there's this level of audacity where you think, "Oh, I'm going to make content and within like two weeks I'm going to be getting thousands of viewers." It's like, "Bro, you're lucky if you get like 200 viewers. You're you're lucky if you get a hundred viewers for the first several months, maybe even years of making content." And people think like that's it's not worth it at that point.

[00:16:49]It's like look at a doctor. My buddy's a doctor. He is 33 years old next month.

[00:16:56]He is still in school every day for like eight hours and then studying for another 10 hours, whatever. Like doctors work really freaking hard for 13 years after going to college, but you're not okay posting a video that takes 12 minutes and an hour to edit.

[00:17:15]Like the level of audacity is incredible with people. You've got a doctor going to school for for 33 total years or whatever, like however old you are when you start school, five, whatever. But you're bitching that you're not rich and famous making a YouTube video three times a week that takes an hour and 12 minutes. Audacity.

[00:17:39]Audacity. And that's fine. You probably got a great job if you got a nineto-ive.

[00:17:43]Maybe you are a doctor. Whatever.

[00:17:47]Not everyone needs to be a YouTuber. Not everyone needs to be a business person.

[00:17:50]Not everyone needs to be an entrepreneur. Like, by no means am I saying that. But when you just think it's gonna come so simply and you give up or you're looking for like some secret when it doesn't happen that day, I'm going to clown you a little bit. I'm going to clown you with love because that's just it's not how the game works.

[00:18:16]All right. Me and my uh scooter s'mores needs to get inside. And how do cameras work? This right here.

[00:18:25]Collection buy.