Tropical Storm "ARTHUR" Likely Forming, Dangerous Flood Threat • 16/06/26

[00:00:00]Hi everyone, it is Danny. Welcome to this update video. So, it is Tuesday the 16th of June.

[00:00:08]And a tropical storm is likely developing in the Gulf of Mexico. So, we've been tracking an area that was marked by the National Hurricane Well, it has been marked rather by the National Hurricane Center.

[00:00:21]And then now it is a very very shy of becoming an official tropical cyclone.

[00:00:27]Now, based on the title of the video or the thumbnail or rather you would have seen that it is likely becoming Arthur.

[00:00:33]So, that's the first name on the list for the Atlantic hurricane season. Now, this is coming all the way from an area of low pressure that emerged over the Bay of Campeche. Now, this system it moved into Eastern Mexico into Southern Texas and now it's moving back out where conditions are somewhat conducive enough to allow for it to strengthen and become the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

[00:01:00]The system is also interacting with a front. Now, that front is already helping to soak sections of the Gulf Coast states with quite a bit of rainfall. Louisiana, Florida, and other states as well. Uh even Georgia has been getting some rainfall because of that frontal system. So, this is just going to be a huge rain maker.

[00:01:19]That's going to be the primary concern.

[00:01:21]Alongside that, there will be gusty winds uh induced as well. But, the rain, the flooding that is going to be the big problem. That is always the major problem when it comes on to tropical systems.

[00:01:33]So, we're going to be talking about that primarily in this update video.

[00:01:38]As for the Caribbean region, much isn't going on here. It's been pretty hot, dry uh for many of us. A bit windy in some places as well. A few thunderstorms have been popping up, but especially for Cuba. So, Cuba has been getting much of that action today in the region.

[00:01:53]And going towards the Pacific coast of Central America, there has been some afternoon showers and thunderstorms kicking up as well coming into this evening.

[00:02:01]And we're going to be talking more about what is potential tropical cyclone one.

[00:02:06]Now, the first thing, why is this called a potential tropical cyclone? So, just in case you're not too familiar with that terminology, so what happens is that so there may be a system trying to develop. It hasn't fully met the criteria to be considered a tropical depression or tropical storm. However, it is producing uh conditions that can be pretty much reminiscent of tropical storm impacts, the rainfall, the gusty winds. So, as such, that prompts the National Hurricane Center to issue advisories even though the system is still technically a disturbance because it's not fully reached the uh required criteria for it to be designated as a tropical depression cuz right now it's producing maximum winds that are within the range of a tropical depression. But, it's not a depression because it doesn't have a closed low-level center of circulate. And that's pretty much a big deal for tropical systems to acquire the designation tropical depression, storm, and all that. But, as for the system itself, let's look at this uh graphic in a little bit more detail here. So, we can see this X. It is showing the center emerging from southern Texas going into the northwestern Gulf. It's likely to become a tropical depression maybe by tonight going into early tomorrow morning.

[00:03:22]And then uh it's will likely strengthen a little bit more once those winds reach 39 mph then we officially have a tropical storm Arthur.

[00:03:32]So, that is expected by tomorrow likely in the afternoon. We can see this yellow highlight here for the eastern uh Gulf Coast of Texas. So, that represents a tropical storm watch where tropical storm conditions are going to be possible, not necessarily expected, but there may be some wind gusts within tropical storm force range and then we see the blue highlight here for the western southwestern part of Louisiana.

[00:03:58]So, that now indicates a tropical storm warning where tropical storm conditions will be likely and especially since much of the associated convection all that shower and thunderstorm activity is off to the east of the center. So, right now it's over this area right here. A bit deep there, but yeah, pretty much off to the east of the center is where much of that rainfall is occurring right now. As we go back to satellites we can see that here. Let me zoom in.

[00:04:26]So, it's just around here that that low-level center is and we can see again off to the east of the center is where we've got the bulk of the rain. So, as the system is going to be closing in, it's will be helping to push a lot of that rain mostly into the southern portions of Louisiana even though landfall will likely be near that borderline with Texas.

[00:04:48]So, guys, this is going to be a major flood threat. And as I speak about that, let's go on to this graphic here. This is showing the expected rain totals between now and Friday. So, we can see all these different colors showing up on the graphic.

[00:05:04]So, we've got the legend over here. This is in inches and we see a lot of these areas with these green shadings. These solid darker green shadings represent rainfall amounts going up to around 2 inches of rain.

[00:05:16]So, that's for the bulk of Louisiana going to much of uh Mississippi, Alabama, even as far as South Carolina could experience some rainfall induced by the system.

[00:05:27]And then these solid yellow shadings indicate up to 4 inches of rain and we're seeing some orange here as well.

[00:05:33]Uh the kind of peach color indicating rain amounts up to 8 inches. So, again, that flood threat is going to be the big concern. So, if you live in somewhere that is flood prone now is the time to be revising your emergency plan because uh whenever there's a lot of heavy rain, especially in a short amount of time, that can trigger life-threatening flooding, guys. So, please listen to your local weather service and do not take any unnecessary risks. We don't need a major system for there to be life-threatening impacts. Even weak tropical storms are capable of doing just that. And with the expected track of uh potential tropical cyclone one, so that actually lines up with what is expected in the month of June. Because in June, it's really the Gulf going to the of the southeastern states and even the Caribbean, the northwest Caribbean.

[00:06:26]These are normally the areas of origin uh origin for tropical development. So, that actually lines up perfectly with what is expected in June. We get these late season fronts. Sometimes there's some lingering moisture.

[00:06:39]And that helps to fuel development because further out in the tropics off the African coast headed further to the west, uh the tropical Atlantic isn't highly favorable this time of year. The waters are typically cooler and there's lots of dry stable weather, which is not favorable for development out there.

[00:06:57]So, that's what we have going on, guys.

[00:06:58]And then just to give you that rainfall update for the Caribbean and surrounding areas. So, of course, along the Gulf Coast, Texas through uh Florida and even going further up north, Georgia, South Carolina, will experience quite a bit of rain over the next day.

[00:07:13]And then for Caribbean Islands, for especially Cuba, we could see additional showers and thunderstorms, but rain chance will be more limited for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Hispaniola going to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, much of the Leeward Islands as well, even for the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.

[00:07:29]As we head through the Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe southward through Trinidad, we see a little bit more color here, so there could be a little bit more rain in this area.

[00:07:37]And for the ABC Islands, things will be on the drier side.

[00:07:40]Northern South America for the Guyanas, Guyana through French Guyana, will likely get a bit active, likely Venezuela, and Colombia.

[00:07:48]For Central America, especially towards the Pacific coast, as we saw earlier, there is uh definitely some action kicking up there that's going to be continuing into tomorrow.

[00:07:57]So, that's what we have going on, guys.

[00:08:01]And of course, I will continue to keep you posted as necessary. So, I do hope you found this updates to be informative, but as usually, if you have any questions, you can leave them in the comments down below. I'll get to you when I have the chance to do so, and remember to always be weather wise.