How Much Crazier Can This Get?

[00:00:00]Today's number, guys, is one of those controversial ones. Bulls love it and bears absolutely hate it with Michael Bur and Goldman Sachs coming out over the last 24 hours and mentioning echoes of the past when it comes to problems potentially in this rally. But why is 900% such a huge number? Well, that represents the increase in market capitalization size of Anthropic over just the last seven months and it's leading these markets into absolutely bonkers rallies, including new advanced decline peaks and of course every stock to do with hardware and semiconductors going crazy. So why should we be paying attention then to some of the biggest hedges in the world and of course what is going on with oil as we see potential for peace talks to continue. Guys, don't go anywhere. Stocks, commodities, and cryptos. There's a lot going on in these markets, and this one is not to be missed. We'll see you soon.

[00:01:01]Well, welcome back everybody to one of the largest daily shows on the planet when it comes to everything to do with markets. Whether you love macro, data, or of course the key levels, we're going to be breaking them all down today, including a couple of big darkpool trades from Wall Street itself. So, if you're new here, remember to subscribe and smash that bell icon. It's always great to have new members in the community. All right, let's kick things off here with what was a massive session again for semiconductors as markets are starting to decouple from some points of reality as everybody is spending big as we just got new news that there's $200 billion being committed to the Google Cloud. And of course, Anthropic has just gone past $1.2 2 trillion of implied value creation since October of 2025, representing a 900% valuation increase.

[00:01:50]This is a big deal and for a long time here on the channel, we've been talking about how really the main markets that matter right now are semiconductors and hardware stocks. These are the backbones of this market. But how wild is it going to get? Well, the problem is is the Goldman Sachs are already starting to sound the alarm. Maybe they want cheaper prices. And we're also seeing Michael Bur coming out with some serious concerns. Now, obviously, he's talked about this for a while and I think he is also potentially short Nvidia. Correct me if I'm wrong in the comments down below, guys. But basically, AI Wales here are spending big. And what you can see is that if it you took out OpenAI and anthropic spending commitments, then you would take out literally almost half of all of the spend commitments when it comes to this big AI bubble. And we do call it an AI bubble because of course eventually this will have to represent in profit. That doesn't mean you can't ride the trend. It doesn't mean that there is an opportunity. And of course it is like every other hardware cycle.

[00:02:48]People sometimes get ahead of themselves. This chart here shared from Jessica Lesson over on X. We retweeted it over on our X account FX Evolution if you want to follow there as well. And it's a pretty big one as you can see in the charts there. What about though Michael Bar's comments? Well, obviously he has some thoughts here from the latest report from BTIG's Jonathan Kingsky, which he shared over on his account. And again, retweeted this one.

[00:03:15]And basically, it shows here top 10 NASDAQ name performance 1999 versus today. So, how are we going in the dot bubble? Were we seeing crazy percentages of the top 10 big NASDAQ stocks? Well, we were back then. And you might, yeah, not be second guessing yourself when you have a look at some of these big numbers. Take a look here at some of the numbers. And of course, SanDisk is the big one. This even surprises me. I thought SanDisk might have stopped a little while ago. It's now at 3,960%.

[00:03:46]That's crazy. From the 5th to the 5th.

[00:03:48]Now, that is a big number. And of course, this shows that now SanDisk is bigger than Western Digital, which is kind of weird if you actually think about how these companies own each other and how everything's kind of interconnected. But yeah, big increases.

[00:04:01]AMD of course, Intel just the last week.

[00:04:04]And while Intel is a great story of great technicals now starting to decouple because of all of these mass demands on CPUs that suddenly come through due to the buy everything hardware style rally. Now, why is this a concern? Well, we did post something that I think everyone should be watching over the next year, and that is the S&P versus M2SL. Basically, this is historically the point where we've seen previous bubbles such as the AI bubble or the dot bubble versus the AI bubble start to hit liquidity problems. We are back at the same liquidity to price peak since the 2000s. And this basically suggests that we are in, of course, extremely rare territory. And although we didn't hit it back in the dot in the GFC period because of course that was driven by debts, now we have a new hardware storage cycle plus we have debt problems in the background. I've actually written a quick disclaime amount of information in the description down below under this tweet over at FX Evolution on X if you're interested in learning more about this. But basically what this is telling us is that the market is at a point now where we really need to think about purchasing power for stocks is now starting to dwindle because we're at these points where you know it's basically driven by debt.

[00:05:18]We're using debt now rather than the available cash in the system. And this means that of course when eventually Wall Street says, "Oh yeah, that's a little bit overpriced. We're a bit concerned about earnings." You get that huge repricing. So as we always say on this trend on this particular channel, follow the trend and obviously uh make sure that you're always looking for stopping freight trains with generally structure. Now are there other reads that are starting to come to this? This chart here from long-term trends basically.com basically shows that Warren Buffett indicator is also hitting some extreme new highs. Now just remember this one doesn't work anymore because we're in a globalized market with lots of tech businesses. But still it's a metric here that shows that whenever this is higher it just basically means valuations are higher to the overall at least US economy and probably the world economy as well as we are starting to see pretty much this whole thing being driven by AI 2 and a half to even 3% Morgan Stanley recently said that they believe is being added to the GDP in the US just from AI spend alone now volume leaders has had a couple of big trades in it recently and some of those have actually led on to increases across the board. This one here is an interesting one because of course AMD just got another monster trade. The number two largest trade of all time and it happened straight after the earnings. Now is that going to be somebody taking profit? Probably. Again, it's a guess in this case. Someone took profit, someone obviously has entered.

[00:06:44]But uh yeah, this often is whenever you see big trades like this, they mean that somebody with serious money is obviously transacting. Now, we have had some previous ones that have ended up leading into bullishness. So, it doesn't mean that the market has to turn at these points, but what we're always looking for up in these areas is structural change. And at this stage, we don't have it, but if we do get it, then that does help. Another one we've seen recently has been DRAM, a new ETF, obviously focused on hardware. Hardware has gone up since this point, but that was the largest transaction. So, we're starting to get a few more here, although markets just continuously drive higher. And what we're seeing according to this latest chart from Capital Context and Jason Gotford over on X guys, give him a follow is a 21day sum of daily fund flow that is really historically high. Now it's now hitting even higher points here. So what that's telling us is that generally speaking, we're getting closer to that FOMO kind of point where markets start to either go sideways in a pit or even have a pullback. Now again, can it take time? Absolutely. When triggers have happened in the past, markets have still rallied higher. So you can see here when this triggered, guess what?

[00:07:54]Rallied higher. When this triggered over here, a little bit higher. Triggered here, higher, triggered here, of course, higher based on the idea that we're going to be having peace talks and that potentially the uh the whole conflict in the Middle East might be coming to maybe an end. Now, I'm not sure if that's going to happen or not, guys. We'll talk about energy a little bit later on. But what is happening is the market is basically using any excuse it has to say, "Wow, all in." And that's of course causing positive gamma, which we discuss here on the channel. And yep, we're still in positive gamma on the S&P relative strength index. This one here from Blue Kurdic. Obviously, we're getting reads across the board here with RSI. Very rare on this channel we actually bring up RSI so often, but we're starting to get into those really overbought periods on RSI. And you can see here it's above 75 for the first time in over eight months. That's a big run. And historically when that's happened in the past again, it's been kind of, you know, I guess choppy for the next week. So yeah, take of that what you will. It's not really that strong a read, but still interesting stuff. Now, Duality Research is always doing some great stuff here with crude oil futures. You guys know on the channel here, we believe in a concept that if we're in a known period of range, uh then once that market of course takes off that high, basically it's it's all, you know, there is no wall of or there's no worry in the markets. Now, if the markets then go to a new higher high and start exploring price or a new lower low, that's the fear of the unknown. Now, what you can see here is WTI did a massive adjustment over the last 24 hours, falling down.

[00:09:26]And um you know again are we still seeing a elevated oil price? Yes. But it has started to pull back based on the news of the last 24 hours. So that's of course pushing some of the futures barrels down and kind of taking them away from those all-time highs or well not all-time highs but multi multi-year highs there. And we haven't seen breakouts on yields either over the last 24 hours. Let's now take a look at Polycarp FX's midterm kind of election year. How does market usually run? Well, you can see here it often runs into the May kind of period and then sometimes it drops after that period. Now, we haven't seen any signs of weakness yet. We'll talk about the index and we'll talk about the moving average that continues to hold this thing up. But yeah, it's all because of AI capex and crazy earnings and the buffins on Wall Street have gone mad upgrading all of this stuff and of course they do believe that gains are going to be there for a while longer. So that's why and you can see this chart here from duality really kind of making an emphasis on how much percentage they expect markets to be up over time. In terms of Bitcoin, another good chart here from the market stats over on X. You can see here Bitcoin accumulation that is net position selling has been pretty high and that often is symbolic of potentially basing formations at least the last three times in the last 5 years for Bitcoin. And so far, it's kind of creeping up there, although it hasn't really gone as crazy as I thought it might after breaking through 79 and a half. So, we'll talk about that soon. Let's move to the dollar. After the news of potential uh conflict de escalation, we saw the dollar fall into the support line. Has it broken through? No. So, it's still trapped within price range and the stock market went crazy. That's why you do not try to short dull markets, guys. I think a lot of people would have tried to short this uh shooting star or pin bar.

[00:11:17]Obviously, it wasn't that negative because did we change structure? No, we didn't. And the advanced decline line continues to make higher highs. So, for now, high high. When that changes, sure, we'll update, but it hasn't happened yet. Let's have a look at the smaller time frames. Now we'll go to the 2hour and uh even this is decoupling from the 2hour 50 exponential which has been the best read on the way up at least in my opinion because it's been making a series of higher highs and higher lows and finding generally dynamic support there. You can see here the US 500 is ramping above and you can see that it's through 7300 and the same thing's happening with the NASDAQ with it decoupling from the 50 exponential even faster as well. So this is a kind of just semiconductor hardware driven mad run. And just just so you guys know, this is literally witnessing history.

[00:12:07]You know, you don't often witness well, we we have been witnessing history quite a lot of times over the last couple of years here on the channel, but this is history when it comes to a new hardware across the board with this much market capitalization. You've never seen market cap like this. three major IPOs to four coming out potentially this year and everyone piling in on top of this stuff.

[00:12:29]So you just don't usually see markets like this. They create a lot of emotion and of course their problem with emotion is generally speaking we often say temperament is the key word in investing and trading and that's because having you know no real FOMO, no real fear. If you can have a level head usually do better. Did we know semiconductors are the backbone? Yes, we've been talking about for ages. Did we know that they started to change trend during that gap of all the ceasefire stuff a little while ago? Yes. Would I have expected them to have a bit better pullback?

[00:12:58]Yeah. But these earnings results are just too crazy and the buffins are just they're going nuts. So, everyone's piling in and that means there's a lot of debt and leverage because of course we know that liquidity availability versus the overall like is in cash availability on hand is not high enough.

[00:13:15]So, what's actually occurring here is people using debt. Let's now have a look at the S&P. You can see it's through 7,300 which enters positive gamma here on the gamma charts. The S&P is therefore positive gamma across the board. And you can see 7,400 is the next big gamma wall. And the Q's are doing a similar thing going through 690 positive gamma across the board there as well.

[00:13:36]Tesla 400 400 400 comes into the core wall and struggles around that point. So obviously that's going to be important to look at. And Nvidia, you can see here guys, basically is hitting an area where the markets are basically at a point where um you know, you're looking at basically a market that is starting to pick up because it's been so far behind.

[00:13:59]If you actually do a chart, which we'll do in a moment, Nvidia versus the semiconductors, they've been really underperforming. This has been a super underperforming stock. When it comes to Bitcoin, is it still in positive gamma?

[00:14:09]Yes, it is. and isn't quite moving the way you would expect, but it is still in positive gamma across the board. All right, let's jump into the charts that matter. The move index first, it dropped over the last 24 hours as some risk came out of the markets. Therefore, of course, is the bonds market panicking?

[00:14:25]No, it's not. Uh we saw a slight move up, you know, little bit, but it hasn't really pushed some of the other bonds indicators either. So, this will be an interesting one to continue to watch. We saw yields come off that 5% never closing above. Remember the fear of the unknown is the key here, guys. Some people don't understand that. The fear of the unknown is what the market absolutely hates. And of course, US oil dropped pretty drastically down to its first support around 95. Now, it did manage to hold that level. Uh it actually fell further and then of course it's unclear exactly what's going on.

[00:14:58]And basically this means that we've got a market that is kind of stuck at the first support for oil. And the same thing happened here with XLE which has done a gap up gap down. So it's right on support. So we'll see whether it can hold and a lot of people are drawing things like fibs here. And you get about a 50% fib. So it's back to where that big transaction went through previously.

[00:15:18]So obviously a huge level here uh for XLE. Let's now move over to metals. They had a good session in them breaking through that consolidation. We've been talking about the metal sector that was pretty strong for it. And of course, semiconductors are just ripping. These are super high. Almost 84 RSI. That's huge. But it just continues to be higher highs, higher lows for now. And you can see here the difference between semiconductors and Nvidia. And if we actually go Nvidia by semiconductors. So we actually convert it like this and we get rid of this chart here for a second.

[00:15:53]I just want to show you guys this is the underperformance of Nvidia since August of last year. So if we actually take a look there, you can see significant underperformance. 40% underperformance to semiconductors. So that's pretty wild stuff as we move towards the key level of demand. What about socks? Again, volume's through the roof. Everyone's trying to go against it. Why? I don't know, but uh that's human nature. Take a look. Oh, it's big, guys. That is huge volume. So, Wall Street's obviously probably very happy with uh squeezing out what is clearly a lot of shorts because people are going massive on shorts. And this is a strong market, guys. And the problem with it is it just keeps pushing higher and higher. I mean, look here at the Cosby just wild moves towards the upside there. And if you look at SNDK, like I'll be the first to say this, you know, to me, I thought over here probably topping out on SNDK and look at it now. And this is kind of similar to what happened to gold, which we'll talk about in a moment. Remember, you know, we've been talking about gold being a breakout for ages. Um, and we'll go over to gold actually now. And by the way, it did break that that resistance line. So, it's looking a bit stronger again, especially on the weekly here.

[00:17:02]Let's just have a quick look at the weekly. If that closes, could be a little tweezer kind of weekly. But remember, if we go back to gold, I was a huge fan of gold before $2,000 an ounce.

[00:17:12]Like, it looked so good macro-wise, so good technically, so good everything else. Long-term viewers will know this uh because it looked really really solid and it was really really solid. But when it got into this 4500 level, I thought, "Wow, that's uh beating my expectations and going too quickly." What happened at the end of it? A huge rally and then a monster crunch. Uh now, if you'd thought that there was going to be people lined up in the street, yes, I know that happens, but you can't get every single component out of it. So uh since then of course been less interested in gold but I will say the last 24 hours we did actually see a break up. We obviously hit that 4500 which was a level we looked at and doesn't miss a double bottom pattern. So so will it go the completion? I don't know but um it's got a 2050 cross on the 4 hour. Things have improved on gold. Silver also went past that most traded zone as well um and broke through the 7650. So both gold and silver actually significant improvements. kind of like hedging I guess you would say here uh against everything that's going on with all of the news and the unclearness that's happening. Tesla meanwhile actually holding pretty well. I mean 2.4% up obviously hitting 400. If it gets through there enters into positive gamma again there's always another opportunity. The abundance mindset is something we talk about here on this channel. So you can see here resistance is coming and of course IGV software not a great session for it but certainly not bad uh just straight at that resistance at this stage. So medals perform better than those two. XJO, the Australian market, just quick update on that for the Australian viewers. Obviously, it's going to do better if metals are up and that's what's happening today. So, um, yeah, medals are up and XJO really 9,000's the next major level it needs to break and close above. And we talked about the NASDAQ before. It's going absolutely ballistic. 2hour 50 exponential moving average continues to be that that that dynamic support on the way up. Bitcoin broke up. A lot of people are looking at this and saying, hm, you know, could we be hitting, you know, a moving average? I mean, if we put one on together. So, if we go to moving averages for a second here, guys, and we want to actually spell moving average correct. That would be good, wouldn't it? And then we just go to a simple moving average, and we add one on. Uh, one of the moving averages that a lot of people forget to put on their charts, and I usually have it on here, but I'm just doing it for you guys, is the 200. I like to make it green, by the way. And if we add that in and we actually put it on the daily, you'll see we tap that. Now, the reason why that's important, we'll get rid of this anchor VWAP, is because the 200 is often considered uh anything that's when it's underneath that, nothing good happens.

[00:19:44]That famous quote by Paul Tudtor Jones, when it's above it, obviously that's a great time. So, you know, people really do consider the 200, it's often dynamic resistance from the bottom up. And that's what people are getting at here.

[00:19:56]uh not always, but it can act as also dynamic support uh when the markets are rallying. So, pretty interesting level here for Bitcoin. Does it look weak? No.

[00:20:04]Looks pretty strong on the charts. It broke to the upside. It's making a series of higher highs and higher lows, which technically is good. And of course, uh we've got this daily 20 and we've got a little anchored VWAP here as well um off that previous low at about 795. So, some key levels to be watching.

[00:20:20]Obviously, we're paying attention to them. Guys, the news is really moving this market right now. or at least it's being used as the excuse. But at least in my opinion, it's a huge amount of people offside on semis and trying to short against the backbone at the moment. And Wall Street is all too happy to upgrade themselves. It is starting to enter well, it's already entered into now unprecedented territory. Almost only a couple of handful of times here in history have we ever seen a move like this. Market cap wise, it's the biggest ever. And what's occurring is basically Wall Street doing what Wall Street does back best, which is extracting maximum greed and then maximum fear. And it was fear into greed. In this way, these markets, you know, they are what they are. But if you're trying to make sense of it, it's a mixture of FOMO, a mixture of of uh of squeezing, a mixture of offside options, and of course, yes, crazy earnings that is now incredibly circular. If you enjoyed today's video, then please remember to subscribe, smash that like button, and we'll see you in the next one. Bye for now, guys. Looking forward to making tomorrow's video once we have some more information after today.