Moscow ANNOUNCES A DEFAULT! Russia’s economy is in RUINS. The grim prediction HAS COME TRUE

追加: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]Because of the war against Ukraine, Russia is facing major budget problems, but Putin is trying to hide the economic failure. Recently, he even boasted about industrial growth and low unemployment, but he kept silent about the actual decline in GDP at the beginning of the year. Moreover, the Russian Ministry of Economy has already downgraded its annual growth forecast to almost zero.

[00:00:23]According to Ukrainian intelligence, in just the first 4 months, Russia's budget deficit soared to over $78 billion.

[00:00:29]dollars.

[00:00:30]This is 1 and 1/2 times more than what Moscow had planned for the entire current year.

[00:00:35]And in order to keep the system afloat, the Kremlin raised taxes, which has already destroyed more than 200,000 businesses. At the same time, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War claimed that Russia has doubled its spending on payments to mercenaries.

[00:00:51]Its economy is sustained by state injections into the war.

[00:00:55]But is it only sustained by this, and when will it finally collapse? Now, we will be asking Oleg Penzin about this.

[00:01:02]He belongs to Economic Discussion Club.

[00:01:04]Welcome, Mr. Oleg.

[00:01:06]Thank you. I greet you as well. So, actually, you know, because of my profession, I have to listen to those people across the border, and over there, everything is supposedly fine. They say the economy is growing. Even opposition media to the Kremlin have drawn parallels saying, "As soon as Putin came out and said the economy is falling and needs to grow."

[00:01:27]Within a week, the economy started to grow.

[00:01:30]Looking at the words and the specific numbers, I want to know if in terms of the actual reality, the situation we discussed during our last conversation approximately 2 weeks ago has gotten much worse, improved at all, or just stayed the same as it was then.

[00:01:46]Well, if we take a closer look at the situation, Dmytro, as for the specific numbers, it would probably be best for us to start right there. Indeed, for uh, let's say the month of March, which provides us with data from the first quarter.

[00:02:00]The overall Russian economy demonstrated a steady growth. That's certainly true.

[00:02:05]And indeed, wholesale trade grew by almost 6%. And as we can see, the total volume of oil production also saw a notable increase as well.

[00:02:15]At the same time, they are actively working to conceal the fact that this only took place during the course of one single month.

[00:02:23]We are referring specifically to the month of March.

[00:02:27]Moreover, when the first quarter as a whole was summed up, it actually showed a decline. To put it more specifically, in the first quarter of 2026, the national economy of the Russian Federation fell by 0.4%.

[00:02:43]Consequently, the growth that was originally caused by the war in the Persian Gulf, the increase in oil production and its export, was simply not sufficient enough to offset the total decline of the first 2 months.

[00:02:56]So, when we realistically assess what is happening in Russia, we need to understand the following.

[00:03:02]We have already discussed this with you more than once. The biggest beneficiary of the war in the Persian Gulf is Putin.

[00:03:09]It is precisely the absolutely premium prices for Russian oil in the Indochina region that give him the opportunity to sharply increase the overall volume of income, including, in particular, the revenues of the Russian budget.

[00:03:22]And we heard a figure from the president of Ukraine that additionally Russian, uh, Russian companies received, that Russia received about 9 and 1/2 billion dollars.

[00:03:34]Direct revenues to the state budget amounted to about 2 and 1/2 to 3 billion.

[00:03:40]It is precisely this money that today forms the basis of the so-called illusory growth of the Russian economy, which is strictly tied to the events in in Persian Gulf. If, um, the situation in the Persian Gulf changes in the Strait of Hormuz is finally unblocked and 20% of the world's oil traffic resumes, then accordingly the situation with the Russian economy will change significantly.

[00:04:07]This is the first point that needs to be understood. And the second, look, when we talk about the state of the Russian economy, we need to understand its level of dependence on the Chinese economy.

[00:04:18]Let's call things by their proper names.

[00:04:20]That is, at the present moment, practically the entire technological base, all high-tech consumer goods available on the Russian market, the automotive market, all of this is produced in China.

[00:04:32]And in fact, such a massive level of strategic dependence on the People's Republic of China, on China's economy, leads one to think about, excuse me, a very specific manifestation of neo-colonialism in the 21st century.

[00:04:46]Because just look at what the Russian Federation exports to China.

[00:04:51]Well, raw materials.

[00:04:53]And what does it get in return?

[00:04:55]To put it quite simply, things like beads and mirrors, excuse me, sophisticated high-technology products, which in fact, at this point in time, are the fundamental cornerstone of both Russia's consumer market and its market for dual-use goods.

[00:05:11]So, when we discuss the implications of the so-called great cooperation between Russia and China, the truth of the matter is that it is proving to be exceptionally advantageous for China. Therefore, when expecting any substantial or meaningful shifts in China's position regarding the Russian Federation, we must always remember that China is deliberately and strategically taking full advantage of the Russia-Ukraine war today and is steadily and significantly intensifying Russia's economic dependence on its own economy.

[00:05:42]Then, could you explain how it is that the head of the entire Russian Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said this week at a meeting with President Putin that Russia is catching up with the United States economy and is demonstrating remarkable pirouettes in terms of its overall quality. And according to the reports he provided, well the situation is starting to stabilize.

[00:06:08]The real incomes of the citizens are growing by 2%.

[00:06:11]Real incomes of the population and in the first quarter by 2.6 overall also increasing and inflation is finally slowing down.

[00:06:20]Well, clearly someone over there is seriously deceiving someone else.

[00:06:26]Well, remember you mentioned the Americans. There was a writer named Mark Twain. Yes.

[00:06:32]Who said there are three levels of growth in lies. Level one is a lie, level two is a blatant lie, and level three is statistics. Yeah.

[00:06:40]Uh when we discuss the current situation with the Russian Federation I think those very statements by the American writer are perfectly applicable to this case.

[00:06:51]So, the situation is as follows. Look, for example they frequently claim that they have about 6% inflation. However, there are certain um rather fascinating and noteworthy indicators to consider. As a rule of thumb, the refinancing rate of a country's central bank is kept as close as possible to the inflation rate.

[00:07:13]So, for example, if inflation is at 6% but the refinancing rate is set at 15, then I have a question. Who exactly is lying?

[00:07:23]Actually, the refinancing rate is one of the primary mechanisms, let's say, for effectively curbing the rate of inflation. And at this moment, with such low inflation no one would keep such a huge refinancing rate given the actual inflation. No one would keep such a high refinancing rate.

[00:07:41]At the same time, there is a lot of outcry that this very rate actively distorts and reduces the investment attractiveness of any money borrowed from banks. Well, a commercial loan in Russia today is over 20% per annum.

[00:07:55]Well, it's extremely hard to imagine that anyone would take out a loan at such interest rates.

[00:08:00]Now, regarding um those specific official statements, and in fact, these are currently being widely quoted by various Russian mass media outlets. This was the meeting where, in fact, for the first time, figures for the month of March were announced about how much Russia started to catch up in March.

[00:08:19]But I repeat, not a single word was said about the results of the first quarter.

[00:08:24]Not a single word was said about the actual real reason for such growth.

[00:08:28]Not a single word was said about what is actually happening today. For example, we see nothing regarding the number of enterprises and businesses that are currently closing their doors. Or, for example, well, if we look from January 1st, 2026 until now, there has been a very noticeable and significant decrease in the total balances of Russian citizens' accounts held in the banks of the Russian Federation.

[00:08:52]One might wonder, what is the specific reason for this? In fact, there are two very interesting statements to consider.

[00:08:58]One is from that gentleman who was with Putin, and the other is from Elvira Nabiullina, who said the only real resource left to cover the budget deficit is the money of Russian citizens, and there are 60 trillion, excuse me, uh in their accounts. Well, people raised during the confiscatory monetary reforms of the '90s should have already jumped up and rushed to withdraw their money from the banks, which is exactly what they are doing. Yes, officially, this is being covered up by saying that um due to the internet, the situation with payment systems has sharply deteriorated.

[00:09:34]It's very difficult to use money online, and that's why Russians are actively switching to cash. But, the main reason after all is a very strong fear for their own savings. Because when two such high-ranking officials say that the only source, well, the Minister of Economy says that the only investment resource left is in the accounts of the population, and Nabiullina says that this is generally the only resource to cover the budget deficit, it immediately creates a sense of something confiscatory going on.

[00:10:05]So, there is a real situation where the total cash balances are sharply decreasing, meaning that people are switching to cash.

[00:10:13]And it's important to understand that the financial system is quite fragile, and if um the population actively starts withdrawing money from the banking system, its stability, its, let's say, reliability drops sharply. There's also this point. So, to summarize the situation, I can state the following conclusion.

[00:10:32]What is happening today in the Russian Federation directly depends on the price of oil on the world market.

[00:10:39]The longer the price stays low, the more it can be noted that the Russian economy is in an extremely difficult situation.

[00:10:45]Yeah. They will have cash flow, which they will use primarily for the war. As soon as the situation in the Persian Gulf stabilizes, the price situation on the oil market will um return to pre-war levels, it can be said unequivocally that the Russian economy will once again begin to stagnate sharply.

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