EXPLAINER: The role Trump plays in the 2026 Midterms despite not being on the ballot

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]President Trump may not be on the ballot this fall, but his influence is showing up in a big way. Across the country, a growing number of Republican candidates winning their primaries have one thing in common. They've been endorsed by the president. [music] And this week, that influence was impossible to miss with the results that could shape not just these races, but the road to the midterms and even how political maps are drawn across the country. For [music] more reporting on redistricting efforts across the nation, subscribe to the National News Desk's YouTube channel.

[00:00:26]>> If you look at what's going on with the redistricting or whatever you want to call it, the Democrats have done it long before we started. They've done it all over the place. They did it in New York. They did it in a lot of different states. In Indiana, a majority of Republican state senators who faced Trump-backed [music] challengers lost their primaries. Out of seven races where Trump-endorsed candidates, at least five challengers have won.

[00:00:49]>> [music] >> One incumbent held on, and one race is too close to call. These were lawmakers who had gone against Trump on one key issue, redistricting. I won Indiana all three times by a landslide.

[00:00:59]And [music] uh I wasn't working on it very hard. Would have been nice. I think we would have picked up two seats if we did that. So what exactly is redistricting, and [music] why is it such a big deal? Redistricting is the process of redrawing political district maps for Congress [music] and for state legislatures. Normally, it happens once every 10 years after the census, with the last official census taking place in 2020. But those maps can [music] shape elections for years, sometimes even a decade, because they determine which voters are grouped together and in many cases which party has an advantage. And that's where the story gets bigger than Indiana. The reality of the situation is that Republicans may have started this redistricting battle, we as Democrats plan to finish it. I guess I'm disappointed at the outcome in Indiana, but uh there's about 14 states at some uh stage of the process now, either litigation or redistricting, so we shall see. Over the past year, President [music] Trump has been pushing Republican-led states to revisit and redraw all maps, even [music] outside the usual timeline, with the goal of strengthening the party's position in Congress. Texas was one of the first seats to move [music] forward with changes with the newly redrawn maps adding five Republican seats to the US House. Three federal judges initially ruled that the newly redrawn [music] congressional map could not be used, but the Supreme Court overturned the lower court's ruling allowing Texas to use the new [music] lines for the 2026 midterms.

[00:02:17]This week, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law a new congressional map [music] that could add four Republican seats in the November midterms. This new map will likely increase the Florida Republican congressional delegation to 24 seats and potentially decrease the Democrats delegation to four seats, according to The Hill. DeSantis said he supported the redrawing to erase the Democrats four-seat gain in Virginia.

[00:02:37]Virginia's new congressional map was nearly approved by voters in April, but the map was in limbo after a lower court blocked election officials from certifying the results. So, I think the easy thing which is, "Hey, yes, it's happened, you know, we just need to move on." Uh every day that we wait, I think that gets less and less likely and that there's going to be at least some sort of remedy from the court or some sort of um blocking of it either partially or completely. Now, the Virginia Supreme Court has ruled the redistricting referendum unconstitutional, leaving Virginia to be represented by six Democrats and five Republicans. [music] In California, the Supreme Court cleared the way for the state to use its new congressional map to give Democrats [music] five more seats in the US House.

[00:03:17]An independent commission, rather than politicians, is responsible for drawing new district lines for California with state voters approving the initiative called Proposition 50 in a special election last [music] November. We have got to recognize the cards that have been dealt.

[00:03:31]And we have got to meet fire with fire.

[00:03:34]And we've got to be held to a higher level of accountability. We can't stand back and watch this democracy [music] disappear district by district all across this country, not [music] just in Texas, but in Missouri, where J.D. Vance went just a week ago, in Indiana, in places like Ohio, in places [music] like Florida. We need to stand up.

[00:03:54]>> So, across the country you have very different systems, but the same underlying reality. Whoever controls the map can have a major influence on future elections, [music] including the upcoming midterm elections in November.

[00:04:04]In Indiana, the national push ran into resistance. Five months ago, state lawmakers rejected a Trump-backed effort to redraw congressional districts, [music] marking one of the first significant political setbacks of his current term. And the decision led directly to this week's primaries.

[00:04:18][music] Trump targeted state senators who opposed his redistricting effort, choosing to back challengers against [music] those lawmakers. And in race after race, those challengers won decisively.

[00:04:27]>> The [music] primary results putting GOP lawmakers on notice who have or plan to oppose Trump's agenda. Yesterday, voters in Indiana again overwhelmingly [music] backed Trump-endorsed candidates after the president called for state senators to be primary who opposed redistricting.

[00:04:43]It was a push that dates [music] back to December. And Trump made it clear he would back their opponents, and he sure did.

[00:04:50]He calls the shots in the Republican Party, and if you go against that, he will pour his wrath out upon you, and it doesn't typically turn out well. [music] If you look at what happened in Indiana tonight, and you're Thomas Massie tonight, or you're anybody else in a primary right now where Trump's on the other side of you, >> [music] >> uh you got to be thinking, this this is a bad night for me. Trevor De Greez, 75 to 24% [music] Tracy Powell, a 30-point victory. Brian Schmeltzer and Michelle Davis, both by 18-point margins. Even long-time state senator Travis Holdman, [music] who had served since 2008, lost to Blake Ditcher by 61% to 39% margin. [music] This was a big win for Donald Trump and and Trumpism in the Hoosier state. I mean, he he asked these folks to to redraw the districts.

[00:05:32]>> [music] >> The ones who voted against him, he set up an infrastructure to take them out.

[00:05:36]Trump was able to push his preferred candidates [music] to victory with his endorsement leading to five out of six seats being won. In total, these Trump-backed challengers spent over $10 million dollars reshape the Indiana [music] State House, turning what are usually low-profile contests into a high-stakes political showdown. And through it all, [music] the pattern stayed consistent. Candidates backed by Trump performed strongly with Republican primary voters. From endorsements to fundraising to coordinated support from allies like Senator [music] Jen Banks and Governor Mike Braun, this became a clear demonstration of Trump's influence inside the party. As Banks put it, quote, "Big night for MAGA in Indiana."

[00:06:10]Meanwhile in Ohio, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy [music] won the Republican primary for governor after entering the race with an endorsement from Trump and Vice President J.D.

[00:06:19]Vance. We can wake up to an Ohio where we're [music] bringing down your electric bills because we're producing more energy in Ohio. We can wake up to an Ohio where your property taxes [music] are coming down because it's your land and not the government's. We can wake up to an Ohio where we are on a path to putting our state [music] on our way to a zero income tax state because it is your your money not the government's. His victory [music] as another example of how endorsements from national figures are shaping outcomes in key races leading into the midterms. At the same time, the debate over redistricting isn't going away. Some Indiana Republicans said they opposed changing the maps because that's what their constituents wanted and raised concerns about pressure coming from national figures. [music] Others argued that redrawing districts is key to maintaining a Republican majority in Congress and that's why this matters heading into the midterms. Control of Congress could come down to just a handful of seats. If you look at the bigger picture, what you see is a bit [music] of entrenchment amongst the wings of the both parties both on the on the right and the [music] left and a growing middle. We now have independent voters making up 45% of the electorate.

[00:07:19]That's the largest number it's ever [music] been since Gallup has been keeping tabs on such things. So, there's a real winnable part of the middle [music] here that both Republicans and Democrats are going to be warring out as we said as you said as we approach the six-month window where we're where we're pretty much moving into a sprint when it comes to the election. State legislatures, the same ones being reshaped in primaries like these, often play a major role in drawing those district lines. [music] So, the candidates winning now could help determine not just the future races in their state, but the balance of power in Washington. This week's primaries tell the bigger story. President Trump's influence is shaping who wins, and those [music] winners could shape how maps are redrawn. Even when Trump is not on the ballot, he's still playing a major role in what happens next. [music] The national news desk will continue to follow all things redistricting and election related as midterms get closer.

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