Presidential endorsements serve as powerful kingmaker forces in Republican primary elections, dramatically shifting candidate probabilities and outcomes; as demonstrated by Donald Trump's endorsement of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, which increased Paxton's victory odds from 62% to 93%, illustrating how presidential support can determine primary winners even when candidates have different general election viability.
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Trump’s Endorsement Just Blew Up The Texas Senate RaceAdded:
So Trump is still the kingmaker inside the Republican party. The other big Republican political news from yesterday is that the president of the United States endorsed Ken Paxton, the attorney general of Texas over John Cornin, the sitting senator in Texas. Now the reality is that Paxton was likely to beat Cornin anyway. Trump had sat out the race for a very long time. And again, Paxton in the Cali odds and again Khi is one of our sponsors. But according to Khi, before Trump's endorsement, Paxton was already 62% likely to win that Texas Senate nomination. And then the minute that Trump endorsed Paxton, his chances jumped to 93%. And not a gigantic shock there. Now listen, Paxton is a less attractive general election candidate than Cornin would have been. Cornin has won several terms in Texas. He has some crossover appeal. Paxton has none, but it's a red state. He's very likely to win. That said, those same Cali odds show that 53% of people are betting on the GOP. 47% of people are backing James Terico, the Democrat. Now, it may turn out that this is actually kind of a boon for Republicans in the sense that Democrats are likely to sink an enormous amount of money into Texas. They are now going to be suckered into the beta play, thinking they might win. Bottom line is Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, and that's basically all she wrote. That's the end of that that Senate primary, which is slated to take place next week. quote, "The highly respected attorney general of Texas, Ken Paxton, an America first patriot, and someone who has always been extremely loyal to me in our amazing MAGA movement, is running for the US Senate to represent a place I love and won big three times with 6.4 million votes in 2024, the most votes in the history of the state by far."
And then he talks about how he is a big supporter of Ken Paxton and he's going to help him in the Senate and all the rest.
Now, Paxton again is sort of running Galin's campaign here. He says that Cornin was dishonest with voters about his support for President Trump. Here was Paxton again using Trump as the litmus test.
>> He has not been a friend of the president. In 2016, he said he was an albatross around our neck. And then in 2024, he said that his time had passed and he insinuated that he was guilty of crimes. This guy is has been a friend of Donald Trump ever since I got into the race a year ago, but has not been a friend to him prior to that. And as soon as this race is over, he will not be a friend to Donald Trump. That is not his history. That is not his record. and he's been dishonest with the voters of Texas.
>> Now again, I think that the reality is that Cornin has had basically a checkered history with President Trump.
True for a lot of members of the Senate, but bottom line is that, you know, once Trump endorsed I I think that Trump just waited this one out, right? He waited a very, very long time to endorse Paxton.
It's not like he endorsed him right out the gate. He wanted to see that Paxton could perform in the primary before getting behind him, something the president frequently does. as opposed to Gallrine where where Trump called the shot. I mean, when it came to to Massie and Gallerin, Trump was the first guy up to say Massie needs to be primary. There was not going to be a serious primary challenge to Massie and then Trump launched it. Not the same thing here. JD Vance, vice president, slammed John Cornin yesterday.
I think the message that people should take from this is fundamentally you have got to serve the people who sent you.
And if you don't do that, you're gonna find yourself out of step with voters or out of step with the president of the United States. And that's not a good place to be politically.
>> Now, I have a lot of friends in Texas, by the way, who are not fans of John Cornin. They think that the Cornin was too mushy with regard to things like gun control. I think there's a fair case to be made. The Cornin caucus with Democrats too often fair. Cornin put out his own tweet saying he trusts the Republican voters of Texas. And then he canled his campaign event and and headed back to DC to vote on ICE. Now again, it's true that Cornin voted with Trump 99% of the time.
So Ken Paxton is going after Terico.
Those that will be the face off in Texas. Here is Paxton going after James Terico who is the sort of Pete Buddhajge 2.0.
Terico is the slightly more gay. Pete Buddhaj Judge. Fair? Not fair? Not fair?
I don't know. Anyway, here's Paxton.
>> How many genders do you suggest you might offer there are during the campaign?
>> Uh, it's pretty clear to me, too.
scientifically. True.
>> Um, is God non-binary?
>> No.
>> Um, is uh is the front is our border best described as the front porch of America?
>> No. Just the opposite. We should we should protect the borders.
>> Yeah. Now, again, the key here is that if President Trump endorses you in a GOP primary, you're very likely to win. This just happened with Bill Cassidy. It's happening with Ken Paxton. It's happened with Ed Gallerin. And Andy Bar just secured the GOP Senate primary in Mitch McConnell's seat after Trump endorsed him.
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