Jobs ↔ Inflation — Balancing Two Mandates #Shorts

追加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]This is the brief on the Phillips curve.

[00:00:02]Think of this 1958 concept as the ultimate playbook central banks use to balance jobs and prices. It's basically a macroeconomic seesaw. When unemployment goes down, inflation inevitably goes up.

[00:00:15]First, let's dive into the short-run trade-off.

[00:00:18]Low unemployment gives workers serious bargaining power, raising wages and consumer prices.

[00:00:23]Think of a hot job market like a crowded auction. Bidding wars for workers naturally drive up the price of everything.

[00:00:29]Conversely, high unemployment weakens purchasing power, so businesses drop prices.

[00:00:35]Central banks still use this logic today, adjusting rates to cool down or stimulate the economy.

[00:00:40]Second, we have to look at the long-run limits.

[00:00:43]So, can a government just print money to keep everyone employed forever?

[00:00:47]Well, no. That just breaks the seesaw and causes runaway inflation.

[00:00:52]In the 1970s, economists proved that pushing unemployment too low sparks a dangerous spiral, introducing NAIRU, the baseline unemployment needed for stable inflation.

[00:01:02]Plus, the 1970s stagflation, caused by oil shocks, proved you can definitely suffer high inflation and high unemployment simultaneously.

[00:01:10]Finally, look at the modern flattened curve.

[00:01:13]Human psychology and global tech have fundamentally changed the seesaw.

[00:01:17]We know inflation expectations alone can drive up prices in a self-reinforcing loop. But before COVID, the curve actually flattened. We had super low unemployment and low inflation. Why?

[00:01:29]Globalization and automation broke the traditional rules.

[00:01:32]So, is the Phillips curve dead? No way.

[00:01:36]It just evolved. While it isn't a perfect mathematical formula, it remains the essential framework for understanding exactly how we balance economic growth with price stability.