Celebrity first-time candidates can achieve significant electoral success by leveraging their outsider status and personal narratives to address practical issues like crime and cost of living, particularly in cities experiencing government dysfunction, as demonstrated by Spencer Pratt's surge in LA mayoral prediction markets from 7% to over 27%.
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Deep Dive
Spencer Pratt is the Donald Trump of the LA mayoral raceAdded:
Hey, I want to move over to the other side of the country to Los Angeles and I am absolutely fascinated by the LA mayoral race and Spencer Pratt and CNN has just done some number crunching. Have a look at this.
>> But if you look at the prediction market, you look at the cash prediction market, his chances are up significantly. Up significantly over the last few months. You know, you go back a few months ago, February 20th, he had just a 7% chance. What is that? That's 5 + 2. Now, it's up like a rocket. Look.
Chances are he still won't be the next mayor of Los Angeles, but there's a pretty decent chance of it. It's now up over a quarter, a 27% chance. So, those who dismiss Pratt's chances, well, you got another thing coming cuz he's got a realistic shot of winning this thing.
>> And Colin, on this program we've played a few times some of the fantastic ads that he's been running and he's run this really wonderful guerrilla insurgent campaign.
I'd love you to break down Sprat Spencer Pratt's chances here. Can he get there over Karen Bass because the polls are tightening and also talk about this new wave of campaigning, this new style of campaigning that he has campaigned on and that Zohran Mamdani on the other side of politics did very well, too. Is this going to be the new style of political campaigns, you know, moving forward?
>> Well, stop me if you heard this one before, James, but you've got a celebrity, first-time candidate, never run for office before, outsider who none of the smart people give a shot to and and they come in and they start talking about the issues that people really care about and Los Angeles' case is crime and it's the cost of living, but that Spencer Pratt's background in many ways mirrors Donald Trump. And when things are as broken as they are in a city like California where basic functions don't work, and if you listen to him, he talks about crime and public safety so much and he's got his own personal story about his house being burned down in the fire and the mismanagement that he attributes to that. And these are not ideological discussions about taxes or foreign policy or immigration. These are just common sense things. And in many of these blue cities and and Los Angeles is our second largest city, the government is just not functioning. So, it's always going to be really challenging for a guy like Spencer Pratt or anyone else for that matter who's got an R or not a D next to their name. But at some point, the people in these cities have had enough. And when they just becomes these apocalyptic places to live, they may want to look for somebody else who's actually talking about the issues they care about.
>> Well, yeah. And I mean, I think it is a a thing where people want to remember, you know, go back to when things actually functioned and worked in in Los Angeles. It wasn't always like that. But also in California, I do want to talk briefly about the Democrats and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who still continues to be the favorite for the 2028 Democrat nomination.
Uh the latest Rasmussen reports said has Kamala leading with 34% followed by Gavin Newsom and AOC. And I don't know.
It's feeling like this actually could be happening because Gavin Newsom doesn't really have a big base outside of California. Um a lot of these other people like Mayor Pete will absolutely be fighting to get any sort of recognition. Shapiro, Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania, he's Jewish and he That means that in the party of inclusion, he can't be the nominee.
What do you make? By process of elimination, is Harris really in the lead?
>> What those Democratic Party leaders are missing is just how deep and raw the wounds go in this country about the cover-up and the lies regarding Joe Biden's mental acuity. You're seeing it come back to life this week in the form of Jill Biden's book tour, where she's telling everybody that she thought her husband was having a stroke on the debate stage. Moments later, if you'll recall, she was saying how great he did and how he won the debate and how he was fit to carry on and she took him to a Waffle House. That's not where you take someone who you think is having a stroke. And that cover-up, that lie, everyone that went into that, that has never been answered for, has never been accounted for, there's never been an apology, there's never been any sort of comeuppance. So, my prediction is, of all the names that you talked about, that wreckage of 2024, the wreckage is still smoldering, and until those names come forward and say, "You know what? We were wrong. We should not have said that somebody so clearly unqualified to be president should have been not only served out his term, but been there for another 4 years. And then we pushed Kamala Harris in here, we frog-marched out of there, we put Kamala Harris in there without ever winning a vote, and we said you should vote for her for president. That was a huge, huge breach of trust with the American people to answer for it.
>> Did Did write that that whole cover-up is the original sin of the Democrats going forward. Thank you so much, Colin Reed. Really appreciate your time, as always. Thanks for joining me.
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