Severe weather forecasting involves assessing multiple risk factors including atmospheric moisture levels, ground saturation, and storm development patterns to predict flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. When the atmosphere is unusually moist and the ground is already saturated, rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour can cause rapid runoff and flash flooding, even before severe storms fully develop. Forecasters use risk levels (Level 1 and Level 2) to communicate the probability of severe weather, including damaging winds up to 70 mph, large hail, and potential tornadoes, helping communities prepare for dangerous weather conditions.
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Deep Dive
FORECAST: Severe Storms & Flooding To Impact Austin & San AntonioAdded:
All right, good evening everybody. I'm chief forecaster David Alford and it is May 26. Happy Tuesday everybody. We have a severe and a flood risk going into this evening. We'll break down all those details here coming up in just a moment.
So kind of an overall perspective with our weather. some isolated cells could pop up ahead of our cluster of storms and with that potential there could be a earlier risk of some severe weather and flooding which we'll talk more about coming up here in your forecast. All right, so here's what we're tracking. We had a widespread storm risk for our area this evening into tonight. Some storms could be severe and there's even a flood risk for our area. This will happen again this evening to Wednesday morning.
This will include all of South Central Texas. All right, an update. Flood watch for the Austin and San Antonio metro areas for the I35 corridor points west into the entire Hill Country going into Wednesday morning at 8 in the morning. And then we have a flood watch for Mason County until midnight tonight.
And this will include St. Angelo, Sonora, Rock Springs, Yuvaldi, Ozona, so areas towards West Texas also included in this flood potential where we could see rainfall amounts between 1 to 3 ines of rain with some isolated pockets seeing nearly 5 in in some locations. I do expect a severe thunderstorm watch to get issued from Rock Springs, Sonora, Ozona, points southwest here into the coming hours. As we probably post this video, there will be a new severe watch.
Flash flood risk this evening. a level two risk for the entirety of South Central Texas as some flooding will be a good possibility for our region. And you can see uh we have that level two risk.
That's why we have a flood watch for our area. And then going into tomorrow, a level two risk of flooding for the I35 corridor points east and a marginal risk from San Antonio back towards portions of the Hill Country for Wednesday. This is for the early hours of Wednesday or for tomorrow. And for our severe weather risk this evening, there's a level one risk for strong and severe storms from the Austin and San Antonio metro areas to the Texas Hill Country. There's a tornado risk for portions of western Bernett portion of the Blanco, Kendall, western Bear County points west. And then there's a level two risk of severe weather for Mason, Gillespie, and Kirk counties in our viewing area. and where those areas that level two risk of severe weather could see some gustier winds up to 70 mph potentially and some large hail up to uh baseball or excuse me up to golf balls in those areas.
Hopefully we don't have any baseballs but if storms really really develop and the cloud tops get really really tall there's a potential they could go up to baseballs but more than likely it would be probably about golf ball size hail um if any storms do get pretty intense or really insane. So, next several days in the past several days, we've seen many storm chances across our area and we have unusually moist atmosphere for this time of year. It is our rainier weather month. And by the way, with any precipitation cells that continue to develop, we're in a loaded atmosphere which will cause torrential rainfall and it will happen more easily now. So, if any storms do develop, heavy rain will develop very quickly. And since the ground is already saturated, well, runoff torrential rainfall can cause flash flooding. So that's why we have a flood watch for our area going into tomorrow morning. So yeah, we are going to be watching this closely. But again, yeah, we are in a loaded moment of the year here in South Central Texas. All right, so isolated cells could pop up ahead of the storms and a big old cluster of storms will come in from west to east producing very heavy rain, thunderstorms, and a lot of lightning and thunder anticipated. So flash flood risk, we could pick up anywhere from a half an inch to 3 in in some locations.
Some isolated totals could be possible up to 5 in in some spots. So stay weather aware going into this evening.
And in our website here, you go to impulseweather.com, you can check out our streams, merch, cameras, and much more. It's on there. scan that QR code for watching on TV and this will take you right to our website. But that's what I have with your weather update this evening. Um, of course, if you guys ever have any questions or comments, concerns, feel free to leave them down there in the chat. But we will have a live stream likely this evening. Uh, which live stream will start probably I was thinking probably around 4:00 this evening maybe. Uh, we may go live between 4 and 6. Uh, that's when we will go live for today. But for now guys, that's what I have here in the Impulse Weather Center. We'll see you back here later this evening with a live stream.
>> Central Texas weather coverage live and on demand. This is Impulse Weather.
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