The climate phenomenon that makes the world even hotter is returning | DW News

Added: 2026-06-03

[00:00:01]The world is about to get a whole lot hotter. There is an 80% chance that El Nino, a natural occurring climate phenomena, develops in the next few weeks and more than a 90% chance that that happens by the end of the year.

[00:00:17]Those numbers come from the World Meteorological Organization today. And that's about as close as climate science gets to saying this is going to happen.

[00:00:29]And this time, against the backdrop of a planet that's already significantly warmer than before, the impact could be stronger in some regions. So today, we're asking, how bad could this get?

[00:00:41]And are we ready? Well, to break that down, I'm joined now by Dr. Michael McFaden. He's a senior scientist at NOAA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, one of the world's leading authorities on weather, oceans, and climate. He spent decades studying El Nino and helped build the global observation systems that we use to track it. Dr. McFaden, it's great to have you with us here on DW. So, let's start with a little bit of a science corner moment, if you will. Can you explain what El Nino actually is in simple terms?

[00:01:15]>> Yes. Well, thank you for having me, Hannah. Um, the um El Nino is a naturally occurring phenomenon as you mentioned. It happens irregularly every two to seven years and it's characterized by an unusual warming of a large expanse of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. And this occurs when the trade winds uh suddenly weaken in the western Pacific and that sudden weakening of the trades leads to an initial warming. The initial warming leads to a further weakening of the trade winds and then the system becomes locked in a chain reaction where uh further warming causes more tradewind weakening and the initial warm anomalies amplify significantly over the next several months.

[00:02:01]>> And what exactly is happening right now that gives you this high level of confidence that El Nino is coming?

[00:02:11]Well, we have uh seen a an initial warming in the equatorial Pacific and we have seen the initial relaxation of the trade winds and the trades are continuing to weaken. Uh the conditions now in the equatorial Pacific look very similar to what they looked like in early 1997 at the start of the largest El Nino of the 20th century. They look very similar to what conditions looked like in early 19 uh early 2015 at the start of the largest El Nino of the 21st century. Now that does not mean that this El Nino will rival those two in magnitude, but the conditions are certainly favorable for that to happen.

[00:02:52]A lot can happen between now and the end of the year that could possibly derail it. Uh but we are certainly set up for a big El Nino to occur at the moment.

[00:03:02]>> And if you could explain to us as well um those of us who are less brushed up on our climate knowledge, how does something that's going on in the Pacific end up affecting weather all over the world?

[00:03:17]>> The area of warming when a major El Nino occurs is about the size of the continental United States. And that area uh releases a huge amount of heat into the atmosphere and it affects the general circulation of the atmosphere all over the globe. And this causes shifts in weather patterns uh where unusually where dry regions may become usually wet, wet regions may become unusually dry. Uh there can be significant heat waves, severe tropical storms in greater frequency or intensity than normally occur. Uh, and these are all because of the atmospheric circulation changes that occur because of this massive heat release from the tropical Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere.

[00:04:01]>> And now we do actually have a map here that shows the typical patterns during El Nino. Like you just said, there temperatures tend to be higher on average globally. And some regions like Australia and parts of Southeast Asia tend to get drier. In other areas, those that are shown here in blue, we tend to see more rainfall. So why is it that some of those regions get drier whilst others get more rain?

[00:04:30]>> The uh the heat released from the tropical Pacific Ocean will will change where heavy rainfalls occur. For example, um during normal years, uh the warmest water in the Pacific is found in the far western Pacific. uh in the so uh Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines normally experience heavy rainfalls uh during normal years in the in this region. When an El Nino occurs, the warmest water shifts eastward along the equator and this dries out the western Pacific, but it brings torrential rains to the island states of the Pacific and the west coast of South America. That's one example.

[00:05:10]Uh the jetream in the northern hemisphere uh shifts equatorward during El Nino and the jetream steers storms across the normally across the center of the United States. But during an El Nino year it will steer those storms uh along the uh the southwestern US along the Gulf States and into Florida. And so those regions will experience unusually heavy rains during El Nino year whereas the northern tier of the United States will be warmer and drier.

[00:05:43]>> Okay. So that's a bit of a breakdown about which countries will get wetter and which will get drier. But which countries need to be the most concerned this time about how their country will be impacted and which ones will be affected the worst?

[00:06:00]Well, we say ground zero for El Nino is in the uh in the rim countries of the tropical Pacific. This is where uh the effects are f felt most immediately. So, uh western South America, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, um these are regions that could have an direct uh could feel the impacts directly, but the stronger the event uh the greater the impact farther away. So the United States will not be immune to a strong El Nino. Um, East Asia, South Asia will not be immune to a strong El Nino. Um, other parts of South America will not be immune to a strong El Nino. So the bigger the event, uh, the larger the impacts, the farther away from the tropical Pacific.

[00:06:46]>> And we have the UN Secretary General Antonio Guter, um, calling the arrival of El Nino an urgent warning signal.

[00:06:55]Let's just take a listen to what he said.

[00:06:58]>> Elino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.

[00:07:04]Impacts will eat even harder, travel even further, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis. Ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.

[00:07:26]>> So, Michael, if I could ask you to pick up on what he just said there. In what sense does El Nino act like fuel on the fire of climate change?

[00:07:38]El Nino produces unusual weather patterns around the world. Uh extreme droughts, extreme floods, uh heat waves and and shifts in the location and intensity of tropical storms. Uh it is occurring now on a background that is much warmer uh than it was even 40 years ago. And a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Uh so for example where we might expect a heavy El Nino rainfall because the atmosphere can hold more moisture uh that rainfall now can become an extreme rainfall which leads to can can lead to extreme flooding. Likewise for drought uh in a region that might experience a a severe Elnino drought because the warmer atmosphere can dry out soils more quickly and more thoroughly. uh climate change can make an an a severe El Nino drought into an extreme El Nino drought. So climate change is amplifying the impacts of El Nino in today's warmer world.

[00:08:41]>> And Gutarish also talked about climate action. Where would you say we are globally on that right now?

[00:08:52]Well, I think there certainly is a growing awareness around the world uh in in all countries about uh the fact that humans are altering the climate system uh and that it's through the combustion of uh fossil fuels, heat trapping fossil fuels and deforestation.

[00:09:10]uh and that the impacts of climate change are being felt now regularly through the greater uh frequency of intense storms and heat waves uh and other uh uh weather and ocean and climate extremes. So I I think there is um a growing concern about this and uh not universally and not everywhere, but there is um um a greater motivation to actually try to make changes that decarbonize society and limit some of the uh more severe impacts of climate change on humanity and on natural systems.

[00:09:49]And I guess on a related note at at what what role do early warning systems play?

[00:09:55]Do we have anything in place in order to prepare us for what's potentially to come?

[00:10:03]>> Well, uh, of course, one of the goals of the research that we have been doing on El Nino for the past 40 to 50 years is to improve, uh, long range weather forecasting related to it. And there have been some there have been great successes in this regard. Uh if we know now having seen the evolution of many El Nino events over the past several decades uh how they evolve, how quickly they ar evolve, how large they can get and we have many months of lead time between now and the end of the calendar year when it reaches its peak development. Uh and so we know what the global fingerprint generally is of a of a major Elnino event. We know where it will be unusually wet or dry, where we can expect uh greater extreme heat. So there's plenty of time uh through these long range weather forecasts to develop mitigation strategies to avoid some of the worst impacts of the event.

[00:11:05]>> And maybe on a more individual level, how should people be preparing for something like this? And what would you tell anyone who's feeling overwhelmed by all of this and maybe people who are looking for some kind of sense of hope in this?

[00:11:21]>> Well, uh, of course, El Nino has been occurring for eons. So, we have lived through El Nino before. We know that, uh, they can be they can be destructive.

[00:11:32]uh but there is as we we have information now that helps us prepare and uh we can take steps that will help us avoid some of the worst consequences of these events. Now uh climate change of course is the background condition on which these events are occurring. Um and you know many people are feeling u distressed about the trajectory of humanity towards a warmer world. But in fact um there there are rays of light uh we see that um you know more people are driving electron electric vehicles for example uh wind and solar power are becoming more affordable and uh and competitive with fossil fuels for as energy sources. So uh you know if you look back 20 or 30 years we've really come a long way in terms of of um changing our energy system. So uh there's there is a lot of hope uh and you know for those who are feeling perhaps a little bit distressed by by you know how events are unfolding uh you know you can always choose your by your personal actions whether you uh are doing your part uh to make the environment a better place. uh you can you can raise your voice, become politically active, and you can vote for um you know political parties that you think represent your interests on the climate change issue uh most effectively.

[00:12:58]>> That's Dr. Michael McFaden from NOA.

[00:13:01]Thank you so much for your time and for shedding some light onto all of this for us. Thank you very much.

[00:13:07]>> Thank you.

[00:13:10]>> Well, please let us know your thoughts below. Are you perhaps in a country that's likely to be impacted by El Nino?

[00:13:16]Is your country preparing for it? Let us know in the comments. I'm Hannah Humel.

[00:13:20]Thank you so much for joining us here on DW.