Diplomatic negotiations between nations with conflicting interests often face significant obstacles when core issues like nuclear disarmament, regional security, and territorial concerns remain unresolved, as demonstrated by the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict where both sides remain far apart on key issues including the Strait of Hormuz reopening, nuclear program dismantling, and Hezbollah's inclusion in any peace deal.
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Israel Seeks Deal That Eliminates Nuclear Danger From IranAdded:
The US military said it conducted self defense strikes in Southern Iran targeting missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it fired at an f 35 fighter jet and several drones. So there you go. Dan Williams joins us here, reporter based in Jerusalem for Bloomberg News. Dan, you know, the reporting over the weekend was we've got the two sides moving towards some type of peace plan, and the market seemed to be reacting to it, but yet there's still some shots being fired here. What's the latest reporting?
As you noted, weekend, people showed people being upbeat about the prospects here, but only a week ago, there was talk about a potential resumption of that US led war against Iran.
And now we appear to have come full circle in terms of the the beat of those drums. You noted both sides saying shots were fired overnight. On the Iranian side, potentially lethal shots by the Americans. They reported at least four sailors killed by that American strike.
The big question is whether these are parting shots potentially ahead of an announcement of a deal or whether they are the proverbial shots across the bow designed by either side to keep the other or to make the other more accommodating in negotiations or indeed the prelude to a resumption of the war. Very, hard to tell. What we can say is that as these talks or these reported talks have proceeded in recent days, rather than showing the sides coming together, reports have suggested they are very far apart on core issues such as the timing for a reopening of the Strait Of Hormuz, the timing for what the West Of The United States has demanded, a dismantling of what remains of the nuclear program of Iran, the resumption of financial relief, sanctions relief, and the like, and the inclusion of Lebanon in any extended ceasefire or peace deal given that that's where Israeli Hezbollah fighting is raging.
Hezbollah is an asset and ally of Iran. So much is unknown, much is unsaid, and as you noted, the violence overnight, the fighting would suggest this remains a very thorny situation.
And, Dan, Iran is actually threatening retaliation for those strikes that The US says was in was in self defense. Is that what you're hearing?
Yes. And then we had the the supreme leader of Iran saying from his hiding place, he has yet to appear in public, that The United States in his word would find no safe haven in the region, some very strong rhetoric. It is a fraught time in the Muslim calendar, the beginning of the festival of Eid al Adha. So it could be that that kind of exhaustive language from the yet to be publicly seen new leader of Iran could be part of that religious fervor. However, it's hard to separate rhetoric from reality here. The Iranians presumably are ready to muster as much force as they can, but it's worth remembering they've suffered a very significant drubbing in this war that was launched by The United States and Israel on February 28. And I can assure you from this part of the region in Israel, the Israelis are certainly on a hair trigger alert when it comes to potential resumption, not just in Iran where there's open fighting going on, but potentially as far east as as, Iran. Sorry. Thousand miles to the east in addition to Lebanon where the Israelis say they could send out their warplanes at a notice of just a few minutes.
Dani, I just wanna follow-up on that. You're based in Jerusalem. What is the average Israeli on the ground? What what do they want now?
I think what they want, and this is to judge from polling as well, is something conclusive, something that would show them that this war, which while Americans see it as an isolated event, a high intensity event, a very expensive destabilizing event, For Israelis, it's effectively the capstone. It's the end, the cascade of, of a war that began on 10/07/2023 with that Hamas attack from Gaza spilled over onto several fronts with other Iranian allies and most recently with Iran itself. The Israelis want something conclusive here. They were not happy to judge by, back of the envelope reporting and commentary in the media by what was reported over the weekend that Trump could potentially sell short as they see it, the war goals by closing a deal with Iran that wouldn't achieve anything conclusive immediately on the nuclear front, on the financial front, on the front of Iranian support for groups like Hezbollah or Hamas. I would imagine Israelis are relieved that those reports have proven untrue for now. They would be happy to see an agreed deal that would set back the Iranians permanently, that would remove the nuclear threat, that would defang Hezbollah to the north. In the absence of such a deal, I think they'd prefer to see force of arms finish the job as the phrase goes.
This is something that Netanyahu, I imagine, would also welcome. He's a few months away from his reelection bid in a ballot that's expected here in September. I think he can ill afford to go to that having not provided a conclusive victory or something he can cast as a victory on any of those fronts.
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