Weather systems exhibit predictable patterns where heavy rainfall moves through specific regions, followed by breaks and drying conditions; dry air behind the system can weaken storms and reduce rainfall intensity, while temperature drops and humidity decreases typically follow the passage of the system.
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Weather Impact Alert: Heavy rain into the night, drying overnightAdded:
rain potential out over toward Texas.
So, we've got a bit of a break here.
Again, a break meaning the heaviest of the rainfall, not completely dry. That next round is from a system kind of all continue connected, but that's over Southeast Texas moving toward Southwest Louisiana.
This may be here a little bit later on into the night tonight, but what is going to be interesting is that on the backside of this we have some very dry air. It's possible the dry air could start to evaporate a lot of this heavy rainfall before it even gets here, and maybe it's not quite as heavy. Again, a lull in the rain, yes, but not done with the rain. The heaviest has since moved on, but you still get a few pockets of some brief light moderate maybe pockets of heavy showers that quickly move through. We are dry across the metro area right now, but that doesn't necessarily last for very long as we have some showers firing up in lower Terrebonne. Northshore, a little bit of a break right along I-12, at least more of light rain, and then north of 12 is where you find the more moderate rainfall still pushing into the north.
This is what I'm talking about. I don't know if you're able to see it on our visible satellite here, but you notice the denser clouds that are right near Houston. On the west side of that, note more breaks. This is the dry air that is coming in on the western side of the system. That may start to help weaken a lot of these more intense storms, but this could be the next round of potentially heavy rain that we might see move in a little bit later on into the night tonight. And the models have been doing an okay job of the intensity forecast and somewhat of the placement of the rain. Notice it has a fairly decent idea of that gap in the rain on the Southshore, and notice though it does kind of increase rain over the next couple of hours. We'll see if that is the case kind of filling in. Still has the heavier rain over Houston. I think within the next hour or so, a lot of the heaviest of the rain will have already moved on. And note what is particularly heavy over the Texas Southwest Louisiana area. As that moves further into Southeast Louisiana or Central Louisiana, that drier air may start to weaken these storms. And so, what is at the moment heavy over Texas may not be as heavy as it moves into Southeast Louisiana. Let's hope that is the trend.
Hopefully this dry air off to the west really starts to catch up with the rain.
The good news though is that this rain as we get closer to midnight tonight is not nearly as intense, and that intensity continues to wane through the overnight hours. And by 7:00 a.m.
tomorrow morning, rain is gone. Let's see what another model says. Again, kind of picking up on that heavy rainfall moving out of Texas into Southwest Louisiana, and also doing a good job of the gap of rain over the metro area.
Still see some activity, but here comes some of that heavier rainfall toward Lafayette. Not nearly as strong by the time it gets to Southeast Louisiana. So, possibly we're done with the heaviest of the rain. Not to say we won't see some areas of heavy rainfall, but the more intense rains that we had earlier this afternoon may be done. We'll see. Again, that's hoping the dry air kind of catches up with that system over in East Texas. As we continue through the night, may still have a few pockets of heavy showers, but at least in terms of the coverage area, may be far, far less.
This model still has some heavy rain at times after midnight tonight, but also indicating that 1:00, 2:00, 3:00, 4:00 a.m. time frame slackening off and drying out as we head into early tomorrow morning. The good news though is that the weekend will be much nicer and cool. On the backside of the system, a big temperature drop. As a matter of fact, we've stayed in the low 70s all day today. It'll be less humid during the day tomorrow. 74 after a chilly morning on Sunday in the 40s and 50s.
Cool to start our Monday, quickly warming to Wednesday before it looks like another front moves in by the end of next week.
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