Canola RIPS HIGHER! Can this rally hold? The Canadian Prairies are HOT! Who needs rain?

追加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Good afternoon and welcome to Canadian Egg Markets. My name is Brian. Today is the 28th of May. If you haven't subscribed to our uh YouTube channel, please take a moment to do so. We talk everything Canadian egg markets and we like to bring to you um acute information about what we think is important in the marketplace for Western Canadian farmers. Uh but let's get right to what happened in markets today. We saw canola up $1060 on the July. A little bit better even on the uh new crop. We're going to talk about that. Minneapolis wheat down 3.5 to 677.

[00:00:36]Uh KC wheat down 4 1/2 cents to 665 and a quarter. Chicago wheat up 1 1/2 to 624.

[00:00:44]Soybeans are up 9 and a4 today at 1194 1/2. Corn was up 3 and a quarter today making back a little bit of its losses from yesterday. 455 and 3/4 is where that finished off at. Bean oil up 1.4 points or 1 almost 1.5 cents a pound to 7670.

[00:01:03]Canadian dollar up 29 points 7255. That was a pretty big move actually. Uh crude oil up 133 at 8732.

[00:01:12]Cattle up a buck 50 to 241. Uh feeder cattle or sorry live cattle down uh buck 50 to 241. And feeder cattle down 155 to 350. uh 25. Uh we do want to take a look at uh at new crop here. Uh give me one second while I organize myself. New crop uh canola was up 11 as we mentioned. This is a new high in this contract. 77870 is where that finished off at.

[00:01:43]Minneapolis down three and a half on the new crop on the December to 720. I probably should be reporting the winter uh wheats in off the September. But these are the December a nickel down in KC at 692 and a quarter. Uh a nickel up in uh in Chicago wheat or sorry half a cent up in Chicago wheat 656 and a quarter.

[00:02:04]Beans up 12 1/2 to 1194. Corn up 4 and 3/4 to 4.82 and a quarter. All right, let's talk about Saskatchewan planting progress. Today was the release of the Saskatchewan crop report. 52% of the crop is now planted. That uh is equal to about the year 2022. So the pace is accelerating pretty quickly. Uh talked to some guys today where they figured that planting would be done uh by um uh by the end of today or even the middle of uh tomorrow uh was one gentleman I talked to, although he admitted his farm wasn't very big, so his planting didn't take very long. I'd be interested to see where you guys are at for planting progress. If you're listening to this, uh, drop a comment in, uh, below just to give me an idea of, uh, how much planting progress there is in your area and maybe where you're from. That might be helpful as well. As far as the regional goes, the spring wheat is, uh, pretty much half done at this point.

[00:02:57]Provinially in Saskatchewan, Durham 75% done, oats about a quarter of the way, barley half done. Uh let's see. Flax about a third. Canola about 40% mustard half. Uh beans uh what little beans there are in Saskatchewan 40%. Uh lentils and peas are uh nearing 80 at 76 and 77%. So there is uh a number of crops particularly in the south that are moving on uh pretty quickly. Uh all right, let's talk about canola here because November canola made an absolute new high yet today. This is a contract high for this contract. We did talk yesterday about how this market closed at the highest close of the uh of the contract. We thought that that was important today. It launched higher. Not that we were expecting that much of a move today. We'll talk about why. Maybe you've already guessed. Uh July canola is tapping at the door of some of those previous highs. Uh 6 or 770 I think was maybe a couple of couple of cents over that. But um 770 is the recent high. We finished off the July at 6 uh 76730.

[00:04:06]Uh one of our advisor partners did uh kind of talk to me today or ask the question about uh canola in US dollars.

[00:04:13]It had actually been fading. So I think the point uh that he was making today was that uh even though canola was rallying in Canadian dollars, it had kind of been fading in US dollars, meaning that our export business was seeing lower prices as our Canadian values were seeing higher prices. So that is something worthy to note.

[00:04:32]Although we didn't we didn't see a new high posted in canola in US dollars, we definitely saw a huge rally in canola uh in US dollars as well. And actually that didn't come on the back of a falling Canadian dollar, which uh normally a falling Canadian dollar helps the canola futures. We actually saw the Can Canadian dollar rise significantly today uh by about 50 points as we talked about or half a percentage point. That's a that's a pretty big deal or half a cent I should say. Pretty big deal in the Canadian dollar. So something is rallying this canola market. It is not crude oil or the energy complex today.

[00:05:09]Uh crude oil was basically unchanged at least at the time that this snapshot was taken. We saw big losses in this market.

[00:05:15]Yesterday as the peace deal in the uh in the Middle East seems to be coming a little closer I guess even though uh both sides were still trading barbs. Uh but where we probably saw some gains here in the canola today was on the back of soybean oil. Again, it doesn't look as impressive, but actually the percentage gains here at about 2% uh in the soybean oil market were a little bit higher than the canola. So uh likely this is one of the reasons that we saw canola push higher. Although uh in my morning commentary this morning, I did talk about basis and how that's been rising as well. I think that is a result of the increased crush capacity. And particularly for the new crop, I think they're the elevators and the crushers are looking to start securing uh some new crop uh some new crop canola. I think the bin doors are closed right now. Not that that's uh abnormal for this time of year, but uh uh but that's the way it is. So this is a hard time to buy canola. Nobody's answering the phone, so they don't even want to talk to us right now. So um you know, that's just the way it is in this industry. And um uh but we are seeing the basis levels in canola uh for November and uh even in the fall in general rise. So that's that's a good sign that buyers are looking to secure some supply. That soybean oil rally did help soybeans as well today. As mentioned, it's back up towards that uh that nice $12 round number. This is the November. Similar to canola, the um the the July is a little bit more flat. I didn't put a chart on here, but I did want to kind of show the uh the seasonal index here for canola.

[00:06:48]We normally have reached the high for the year. Of course, this seasonal index, which I post here, a 10-year uh which I think is a little bit more accurate, let's say, than the uh than the 30-year because this is kind of when the, you know, a lot of crush capacity came online here. In fact, some of the five years might be even more uh accurate given uh the increase in crush and how crush has now taken over exports as far as the demand side goes. So, we've rounded the top of seasonal. So, the fact that we're making a new high today is starting to get into uh abnormal territory. I shouldn't say abnormal. It sometimes does peak in June. It even sometimes peaks in July. I think the big story here is that it peaks before harvest almost every single year. uh and we generally see the lows of the year right right around that harvest period. Still expecting that. So um that is our that's our bias. That's our assessment is that we like this rally. We've been saying this rally has been technically bullish. Uh it now has broken to a new high. But this isn't going to be a forever thing. Uh I don't think we will probably still see a correction into harvest as the um as the supply push comes in which may come, you know, as soon as we start to see emergence uh of this uh of this new crop come into play here. All right, let's turn into the grains here. We saw uh September Minneapolis wheat fade a little bit today. It's down near the $7 mark now. Um so uh you know that's uh it it continues to fade. I think the drought story is uh is moving to the end and we're starting to have priced all of that in already.

[00:08:21]There isn't really a story in the spring wheat yet. You can see that the Kansas wheat here on the July is still tapping at the uh the new low or the lower low territory. So that would be a concern if we continued to break down before that or below that. I kind of said the same thing yesterday. Uh but only small losses here that is essentially doing the same kind of thing. Chicago wheat is uh you know broke below some of those support levels yesterday. Still hasn't made a lower low though. So uh you know again it's it's hard to call this dead.

[00:08:52]We've just seen a lot of you know a lot of volatility or or a lot of spread between these highs and lows here during this rally. Uh so um you know yeah is the is the rally over? Maybe maybe not.

[00:09:05]In some of these drought years we've seen you know July highs. So maybe uh you know we're seeing the uh you know the uh the toilet bowl fill up before the next uh flush. Maybe that's the wrong way to put it because we're not expecting or maybe we're not expecting a flush. Maybe uh we need to wait uh we need the spring to load before the next move higher. Maybe that's the right way to say it. Corn continued or made up some of its losses today but it still closed and remains below trend line and below the 200 day moving average. Again, we are expecting a test maybe of that 448 area on the July. All right, let's turn our attention to the weather. Now, I probably don't need to tell you this stuff, but it's freaking hot out there.

[00:09:47]It's uh in the 30s in a lot of areas in Western Canada. That means dry down is happening very uh very quickly. Uh the chart I'm showing here is the 5-day temperature anomaly. And you can see just how much hotter than normal it is, particularly in areas of uh of Manitoba, actually, and some of the northeastern areas of Saskatchewan. Blisteringly hot.

[00:10:10]Dry down is probably happening at a faster pace than uh than they would like. In fact, I've been hearing from my Manitoba friends that uh they need some rain here, and I don't think that that's coming in the next little while. Here is the rain forecast uh for the um for the next few days here. This goes into Monday at 6:00 p.m. You know, the the south of Alberta needed some rain.

[00:10:35]They're going to get some rain. We're going to continue to see rain across most of Alberta in that period of time, although some of it is uh lighter than than others. The southwest of Saskatchewan or mostly the the the west of Saskatchewan in general is going to see some beneficial rains. uh central east of Saskatchewan a little bit lighter. Uh Westman is going to get some rains and I've been uh watching this gentleman who who is from Westman and uh is a is a is a weather enthusiast. I don't think he charges for it but he should for sure and um he's he's talking about a lot of potential storm activity in that area as well. Uh southern Manitoba, central southern Manitoba, not so much rain and that's where uh it is also needed there. So unfortunately those farmers in like say the Pemina Valley and even a little bit east and west of that uh will likely need some more rain. The um major rain event is going to start on Sunday evening. So this is the uh the rain type or the precipitate precipitation type in uh in the area. This is when it starts. So late Sunday evening is when that is supposed to start and then carry over the next couple of days. As you can see here, there's even some snow forecast in the mountains, which again isn't super uh abnormal for this time of year. All right, that is all we have for you today. Remember to subscribe to our channel. We'd love to have you around.

[00:11:57]And if you're only listening to this, uh that's great. I try to uh I try to talk about stuff in a way that you don't need to view the charts so that you can listen listen while you work or whistle while you work. All right, that's all we have for you today. Thank you very much for joining us. We'll see you again tomorrow.