Will China and the US Actually Go to War? The Reality of "Coopetition"

Añadido: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]The relationship between China and the United States is without doubt the most consequential bilateral relationship of the 21st century as the world's largest two economies. Whether they choose to collaborate or compete has far-reaching implications from global financial stability to the future of climate change. To help us navigate the complex dynamics shaping this relationship, especially in the security and the strategic fields, we are joined by Senior Colonel Joe Bull, a senior fellow at the Tinua University Center for International Security and Strategy in an exclusive interview lately.

[00:00:40]Now, you have been in many of the earlier interviews talk about China and United States possibly in the middle of co-opetition. Condro tell me more about what exactly do you mean?

[00:00:52]>> Well yes I've been talking about competition for quite some time because as Chinese side has always stressed on the necessity of cooperation while United States would stress that this is essentially a compet competitive relationship. So I believe there there are actually elements of both. So I have coined this term to describe it as competition. But the question is if it is a kind of competition then which prevails? Yeah. Who defines this relationship in China US relationship? I believe it would not be the one uh between uh uh United States and former Soviet Union during the cold war short of ideological confrontation. So the good thing is that we do not have ideological confrontation. China is deeply embedded in the international system and China would not export its own values or social systems. So therefore we are competing within the same international system. So that would actually make the 21st century looking a little bit sangu than the last century.

[00:02:04]Over the past few days, you see China diplomatically has been quite active with the m visit of the Iranian foreign minister to China and China has been calling for peace and dialogue.

[00:02:16]Meanwhile, you also see the so-called pause from the US side of its own uh military operations at least on the paper. So what do you think actually has been the evolving role of China and what does that mean for the security and strategic relations between China and United States starting from this?

[00:02:35]>> Well, let me uh put it in a straightforward way. Uh you know on the face of it, you would not see Chinese hand moving in this uh whole thing of the war uh you know between Iran and the United States. But Trump actually has talked about China's role. He seems to have somehow confirmed all the briefly very briefly about what China has done and the fact that the Iranian foreign minister is coming before Trump's visit shows that uh you know China is actually working on this issue uh because everybody seems to be somewhat disappointed with what the United States has been doing and therefore people would look up to China. Yeah. uh you see that's the interesting thing is more and more peoples including you know the French president and the British prime minister would describe China as a superpower. So therefore how China might play such a role is really a crucial questions. I have an an analogy. Yeah.

[00:03:39]For example, if the forest uh is destroyed by a fire, what are you going to do? Are you going to wait to let the primitive forest grow back which takes time or are you going to plant artificial forest there quickly? Yeah.

[00:03:57]So, so this is a very interesting question because uh would people think about that if people believe in international theory? Is it really a theory? people would believe okay uh there are vacuums in the in in the international order and once there is a vacuum other force forces would fall in automatically I don't buy that because you see this is just like what what I said the forest right if you wait and the forest could still grow back and that is why the primary responsibility for stability of a country or a region lies with the country and the region so that is why when We talk about Afghan issue. All countries would agree that this is Afghan owned and Afghan le, right? The what is the role of the external forces.

[00:04:48]>> The external forces would have to provide kind of humanitarian aid. Yeah.

[00:04:53]But that is for humanitarian reasons is not to replace you know the the old order with what it perceived to be the new and better order. So that is why the west has been making a lot a lot of mistakes on so-called inter humanitarian intervention. I think we're going to see a new model. Yeah. Uh because of China.

[00:05:18]Uh the new model is that China would try to address both symptom and root causes.

[00:05:24]Yeah. Talking about root cause sometimes it's difficult because it's actually more difficult to re resolve the root causes. But if you think about root causes while you're trying to resolve symptoms that actually is is a better approach and I believe Chinese approach is more rooted in a kind of a non-interventionist way because we understand we have to mediate. Yeah, we have sometimes to become a facilitators.

[00:05:53]So China's role in the future are three.

[00:05:55]One is facilitator. The second is the mediator. The third is guaranter. Yeah.

[00:06:01]Each one is becoming more difficult but China has to be involved. As I was talking to other international media, China today is cannot hide behind a tree because you are even taller than the tree itself.

[00:06:16]>> Yeah. So you have to be involved.

[00:06:18]the American congressional delegation was in town in Beijing and Senator Danes uh coming from the Republican side has been meeting with both the Chinese premier, the National People's Congress uh chairman and also uh Minister of Foreign Affairs Mr. Wangi in China. So we see messages coming from both sides.

[00:06:40]If I could, the Chinese foreign minister suggested bilateral relations between China and United States has what he said maintained overall stability while the US senator Dan suggested that the US wanting to deescalate not decouple. Of course, these are quotes coming from the readouts and also from media reports. We don't know exactly some of the many issues they've discussed. But from these words, what is your assessment of uh how the ambience is likely to be for the next few weeks between China, US?

[00:07:15]Well, I I think this is a good world gesture, but there isn't much some new things in in this kind of stuff because if he talks about that we should not decouple of course because at least our economies are deeply associated and integrated and if you talk about the deconlict well I don't believe we have a immediate you know prospect of having a conflict anywhere. So it is entirely possible and I believe that uh uh the only places where we could have a conflict are in the South China Sea and in in Taiwan state on the South China Sea. Well, I don't believe China is going to have a war with those other Clements from Southeast Asian countries.

[00:08:04]Still, it could, you know, be a result of accidental collision of either aircraft or ships. And so that is what we we should try our best to avoid. And in in in in Taiwan state I believe the the best evidence of a good will is expressed during the chairman of Kind visit to the mainland that is the visit of Mr. Chi because we're not only shaking hands we're not you know talking with smiles but that the mainland has actually offered 10 preerential treatments to the Taiwanese people. I think that mattered tremendously.

[00:08:49]Chinese foreign minister Wangi uh has been talking about that with he during his meeting with the US senator Senator Danes at the US congressional delegation's visit to China. Meanwhile, you also see the foreign ministry spokesperson talking about the Taiwan question has been the core of China's core interest. Now with Chinese side emphasizing diplomatically in words once and again the issue what does that mean for possible top level discussion uh between China and United States in the coming days hopefully >> I'm pretty sure uh the Chinese side will mention this Taiwan issue in part because President Xi and President Trump didn't talk about it during the summit in so Korea. So because as you said this is the one of the most important issues for China, China will definitely mention about it but I'm wondering how China might mention it. Uh this would not be difficult but I'm wondering actually how the United States might respond. So the easiest way for them is to say okay we stick to one China but that would not be so assuring because this word is becoming more and more slippery on the American side. Yeah Biden talked about one China but he ged four times on this to say that we're going to defend Tai military something like that although it was quickly walked back by his assistant. So the best thing for Donald Trump to say is perhaps that we would not support Taiwan's independence or even a step further to say that we support yeah peaceful reification yeah owed to peoples across the streets there could be a something very tricky yeah the because there are check and balance yeah between among the the US governments for for example yeah the all the things that come out from American Congress be talent relation act be the six asurances >> are all mean to to balance yeah the efforts of the American administrations and in the worst case they actually could play yeah good cop and the bad cop together >> right >> so so who would you really believe right and even this government say okay we're going to honor this policy but the next government could change his policy. The other thing that paradoxical is on the one hand we see the current administration in the United States uh trying to present uh trying to sell the largest arms deal to Taiwan over the past few months but at the same time it is expressing in words that um it respect Chinese people uh China's civilization and also uh have been verbally committing earlier to some of the principle when dealing with the Taiwan question. So, Senior Colonel Joe, how do you see also this action visa v rhetorics?

[00:12:03]>> To answer your question briefly, I would say China has more and more means to check these kind of arm sales. Why is that? because uh in the past we have uh we had more protest but now we do have sanctions on related American company and besides we're doing more and more military exercises around the islands when people talking about Taiwan Strait people always say okay the status quo but I would say that no status quo is static it is constantly changing and it is changing in the favor of the Chinese mainland Right? Because we have been doing military exercises. So the more the cell arms probably they're going to see more and more military exercises from the Chinese mainland that would become more sophisticated >> and they would become reversible and as a result the whole situation would become more tense. Is that really what the United States wants?

[00:13:08]>> Tell me more about where China stands.

[00:13:13]seen as you as an expert on AI and its security app implications. Meanwhile on China, US competition and possible cooperation in this field.

[00:13:27]>> That's a good question and there are so many question all together. Well, it's not a secret that we are competing on AI, right? So if you look around the world, there are only two dominant actors on AI that is China and the United States. Well, you see in the military field it would not be a secret to say that both China and the US militaries are developing AI. The question is yeah how could we make sure that um there are still some rules to be observed for this to happen China and United States have to discuss all these.

[00:14:01]The good thing is yeah my center that is center for international security and strategy or chinua university has been talking to Brookings uh famous think tank in the United States about the security aspect of AI. We have done 14 rounds but we need to talk about this of a government level which has yet to happen because I think it would be most useful if China and the US could actually formulate some kind of joint rules that can be observed not only by them but also by other yeah militaries in the world. This is this is my good wish. I don't know whether it could be done uh very soon and I have strongly doubt about it. But I would mention that the most important uh decision or consensus made was between President Xi and President Joe Biden uh in 2024 during the summit in Lima which is to make sure about human oversight over nuclear combined and control system.

[00:15:12]What they have agreed is on human you know conventional wisdom but the point is how could we actually you know make a step forward.

[00:15:25]>> Uh tell us how do you make your conclusion uh what is competition or there's likely to be other words between China and United States.

[00:15:36]Well, I think a competition that combines the cooperation and the competition is totally possible. I'm an optimist if I or if you like me follow the development since the first Trump administration because during first Trump administration actually China was know for the first time mentioned as a strategic competitor. So there wasn't uh much uh you know talked about on cooperation but since then you see even during Biden administration and the second Trump administration more and more request even from US are coming to China as to how China might help here or there. Could you talk to Iran and ask Iran ask Iranians to talk to Houthi to stop attacking the ships? uh in the Red Sea so on and so forth right so I believe the United States has really realized that this so-called peer competitor yeah has a lot of leverages and I as I said earlier in the beginning we are competing in within the same international system so so the worst thing is what happened in the last century yeah a kind of ideological rivalry for decades because this kind of rivalry between you know the two camps was first of all ideological rivalry and that is a kind of life and death issue is existential threat but for us this kind of competition well would not be existential so this kind of competition would last from time to time but at the same time the United States would have to cooperate with China on more and more issues