Rain Increase in Sections of the Caribbean and the Chance of Development • 27/05/26

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Hi guys, it is Danny and welcome to this update video. I do hope you're having a really great Wednesday thus far. So, we're going to be taking a look at what is going on in the realm of weather as per usual and the trends continue especially with the GFS model in regards to the potential of seeing developments as we head into the uh early part of next week. So, we'll be looking at that, but I do want to get it out of the way.

[00:00:24]The chance remains pretty low. So, for right now though, we've definitely got some action in the Gulf, seeing these uh bursts of convection. So, lots of showers and thunderstorms also for much of Cuba and towards sections of Central America. Things have also been pretty active. As we head to other places such as Jamaica, not a whole lot of rain today, just some overcast skies at the most for many places. And towards sections of the Dominican Republic, things have been getting active, some thunderstorms earlier in Puerto Rico.

[00:00:55]And as we head towards Lesser Antley's uh mostly cloud cover once more with some passing showers here and there.

[00:01:02]Things may be a little bit active in sections off the ABC islands. So that's what we uh got going on today. And even for the Guyana, we also have some increase in thunderstorm activity as we progress into the afternoon. Looking at the surface chart, we can see where the tropical waves are. So, one is over here in the eastern Pacific basin. Another is about to enter the Pacific basin shortly. And we've got two which are noted out here in the Atlantic. Not really sustaining much because of the mass of dry air out there. And even as I mentioned that, we've definitely got some of that dry air impacting the uh Caribbean. We've got some saharin dust moving through. So this is these brown shadings represent more uh higher concentrations of that sahar and dust.

[00:01:53]So for the lesser rantles ABC Islands going to Jamaica even towards the Cayman Islands we can see all of these different brown shadings. So, let me know if you're noticing those hazy skies, especially in the distance. And this is not something uncommon, especially as we head into the month of uh late June going to July and early August. That's when we tend to get the most out of those dust plumes. And they help to uh bring about some stable weather as well cuz all that mass of dust and dry air helps to stabilize atmospheric conditions, which limits rainfall.

[00:02:28]So, that's what we've been seeing going on. And in terms of the rainfall activity, let's take a look at that over the next day. So, lots of color. Again, we've got quite a bit of action in the Gulf and surrounding areas. So, lots of rain in sections of Florida going towards Cuba. We could see some additional periods of some heavy downpours at times. Likewise, much of Central America will be impacted and also Mexico. So we see all these colorful shadings going up to an inch for some areas maybe going up to two two and a half inches of rain over the next day. So if you're affected by a substantial period of heavy rain, please take the necessary precautions as it pertains to the potential for flooding cuz that's going to be a possibility especially in low-line areas. As for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, rain chance is not going to be very high over the next day, but there could be some passing showers. Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms, heavy downpours at times will be possible in Haiti and the Dominican Republic and even sections of western Puerto Rico. As we head towards the Bahamas and Turks and Caos, not really seeing much color here. So things will be on the drier side and uh much not expected in terms of rainfall for the uh Virgin Islands and through the lesser antelles. Likewise for the ABC islands as we head towards northern South America gets quite colorful.

[00:03:49]Nothing out of the norm here. So some heavy rain will be possible with that risk of flooding. So that's what we have uh anticipated over the next day and we don't have anything immediately watching now as it relates to the potential offseen developments. Let's take a look at the latest run here for the GFS model which is uh Amala is more aggressive compared to the others and uh these different green shadings you're seeing indicate the average precipitation rate.

[00:04:22]So the trends still continue regarding the potential for seeing something form.

[00:04:27]Now this is the time frame up here. So as we head into the end of this week going into Friday the 29th uh we can see this rain surge expected in the vicinity of Central America. We also see this L which shows an area of low pressure forming uh just offshore bise in that zone. So let us continue out in time and see what's expected as we head into next week, Monday, Tuesday. Notice these blacks squiggly line which are called uh lines which are called isobars getting more compact in a circular manner. That is a sign of intensification. We also see the value here drop and it was at 1,3 mibars. We see it down to 992 millibars. That's a sign of strengthening. GFS shows that as we head into the latter part of next week, we'll have something uh potentially a hurricane making landfall in western Cuba, then continuing towards Florida.

[00:05:25]This scenario here, it seems pretty unlikely. Again, GFS is a pretty aggressive model. It's not impossible, but based on the atmospheric setup, typically at this time of year, we don't anticipate these types of tropical cyclones. And it will all depend on the environmental conditions as we head into next week, whether there will be a period where the upper level winds aren't too strong and if there is adequate moisture to really help to influence an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. The Euro model on the other hand, let's go out in time as we head throughout the rest of this week going into Thursday, Friday. Notice we're not really seeing much here in terms of anything defined. mostly just some lingering moisture into the Gulf and then eventually we're not seeing anything much as we head into next week.

[00:06:17]Let's continue throughout the week. Euro does not show anything close to what we're seeing on the GFS model. And to go along with that, the National Hurricane Center's latest graphic this afternoon is depicting that there are no disturbances. So, no tropical cyclone activities expected over the next 7 days. So, it's not impossible for us to see something form, but something of such intensity is not one that we typically anticipate in the early part of the hurricane season. So, I'll continue to keep you guys posted, of course, and uh that's pretty much what I wanted to bring to your attention in today's video. So, we're going to keep track of that. We'll see the odds, especially as we head into the latter part of the week, and if something will eventually be marked on this graphic here. So, I do hope you found this video to be informative, but if you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comments. I'll get to you when I can.

[00:07:13]And remember to always be weatherwise.