Tropical Storm “JANGMI” To Enter PAR Friday…Heading Towards Okinawa. SW Monsoon Begins May 31-Jun 06

Ajouté : 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Hello everyone. This is Mike, Mr. Typhoon Padawa, returning to our topical weather analysis for today, May 28 to 30th, Thursday to Saturday. And this is our English version brought to you by Typhoon 2000 and Naga College Foundation. We'd like to thank also our partners, AOS Power and the local government of Naga City, headed by our honorable mayor, Leonard Aedto, and our honorable vice mayor, Gabby Bordo. Well, uh the new tropical cyclone, it's now known as internationally as Changmi is now approaching the Philippine area of responsibility roughly 100 km away before it enters par. And once it enters likely tomorrow or Friday, it will be named locally or domestically as Doming as Pagasa is set to issue uh bulletins on this uh tropical storm.

[00:00:56]But the good news is that there will be no direct threat or direct effect or currently except some coastal areas of eastern Lon will have some rough waves.

[00:01:08]So up to 2 m just the uh that's probably the highest and what we are concerned about is the onset or the enhancement of the southwest monsoon. So we will discuss this within our video. So let's begin. Now, here's the latest gravat we issued yesterday and this is valid for the next 24 hours until today. So, here's uh tropical storm Chungi and this storm uh is uh somewhat a tropical depression based on the latest from the uh joint warning center. But the rest of the Asian agencies including Paragasa, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Beijing is currently at total storm strength. And uh we we can see that the uh inner core of this system is not yet fully developed. That's the reason why the T number or the Vak scale of uh the US joint wing center is still at tropical depression status. But take note that the periphery or the winds along the outer uh inner bands of the storm is already reaching from 55 to 65 kph. So that's the reason why some of the official agencies already upgraded it into a tropical storm. So we are monitoring this system as we are observing the onset of the southwest monsoon is already here over the uh Gulf of Thailand. Okay, south of uh uh southern Vietnam and we already have southwesterly and westerly wind flow affecting the western and southern portions of Mindanao. So Mindanao will have isolated the scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as you can see based on our last image yesterday afternoon and it will continue to prevail every afternoon as the storm moves towards the northnorwest and it will just enter power with no direct effect or country likely to enter uh tomorrow Friday and the southwest monsoon might start to affect the western sections of the country particular particularly Palawan, Clayan Island Group, Accidental Menoho, uh Western Bisayas, Negros Island region, and Samangi Peninsula during the next uh few days until the weekend. Then early next week, the band of rains from the southwest monsoon will begin to uh migrate more to the north and will affect uh the western sections of Lon as well. Here in the big region we might be uh uh experience some southwest monsunal uh flow. The winds will blow from that direction. But uh the rainfall is much of an afternoon or evening uh thunderstorms and not the on andoff occasional monsoon rains that Metro Manila and the western sections of the country are going to experience since they are more uh exposed to the flow of the southwest monsoon.

[00:04:15]So right now the risk of flooding and landslides over these uh areas affected by the southwest release will be between low to medium chance. So depending on your area if there is a strong thunderstorm that could develop during the afternoon or evening. So uh this is now the uh uh latest from the uh Wisconsin tropical segment page fast animation. So, as we speak, we already have a uh a com core. It's not yet an eye. Okay. It's like a uh uh some kind of a moat. And the center is currently weak. But the strong winds are located along this uh portion along this periphery. Okay. The winds of 55 to 65 kph. So it's moving uh northn northwest at a speed of uh 24 kph in the j direction of the southern islands of Japan. So that's the direction of this uniformed tropical storm in Changmi and it will be known by Pagasa as doming once they issue domestic bulletins beginning uh tomorrow uh Friday.

[00:05:32]Okay. So no worries. don't believe on those uh uh YouTube and uh social media postings of this storm affecting the Philippines blah blah blah blah but uh just listen to the latest from the reliable sources like Pagasa and other reliable uh independent uh weather channels like uh the one by Robbeta the western pacificweather.com okay so uh let's move now to the other images or animation. This is the uh zoom in s animation from wind.com. This is the past 6 hours beginning at 4:00 a.m. this morning until 10:30 this uh uh moment.

[00:06:15]And you can see that the uh inner core of the system is still trying to organize. That's why it's still a tropical depression from the joint typhoon warning center. But the rest of the Asian agency is already a tropical storm since the periphery of this uh circulation on this area is already beginning to experience along this area uh winds of uh 55 to 60 65 or more than 65 kph and uh we are already uh experiencing uh development of the uh southwesterly or westerly winds here over the coastal areas of western Mindanao in particularly uh some Vonga del Norte along the coastal areas they are building severe thunderstorms. So please take all of precautions against lightning strikes and the the heavy rains brought about be the cloud burst within that uh severe thunderstorm and uh also the rest of the country will be experiencing some isolated scattered localized severe thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon and also uh during the evening. So, uh again, uh shelter when we have lightning strikes and avoid going out to open spaces. And let's take a look at our website. This typhoon 2000.ph. And we already uh inputed here the tropical cyclone uh tropical storm Jang Jangmi uh 06W is still 140 km away east of the Philippine air responsibility at 8:00 a.m. So uh it's just uh one day away before it enters PAR. It has upgraded into a tropical storm moving northwest speed of 24 kph.

[00:08:05]And uh you can see here all the links.

[00:08:07]Just click on those at ww.typhon2000.ph.

[00:08:12]And here's the track from the joint typhoon warning center. Uh Typhoon 2000 will be releasing also a 24-hour forecast track. I mean 24-hour issuance of uh the track of tropical storm Changi uh most likely once it enters par. And here's the track from the joint typhoon warning center. And it's still a depression, but later on this afternoon, it could become a clical storm as well.

[00:08:38]And eventually it will begin some slight uh rapid intensification.

[00:08:45]And on the uh uh evening of uh Friday uh May 29th, it could become a typhoon because of this possible rapid intensification due to warm oceanic heat content of the East Philippine Sea. So uh that's the uh track of the joint warning center. It's likely to become a category 2 storm with winds of 175 kph once it's movement once it moves over the North Philippine Sea uh on Sunday May 31st the last day of the month of May and then it will eventually move towards Okinawa exceeding the Philippine area responsibility. So this is the power line.

[00:09:33]So the storm is expected to exit par that will be during the evening of uh June 1st. So Monday evening based on the current forecast of the joint typhoon warning center. Here's the Japan Meteorological Agency. The same scenario, the same plaque. Okay, they are blended together.

[00:09:56]and uh Japan Meteorological Agency shows uh shows uh Changi as a 65 kph tropical storm. Now, as we take a look at the multi- agency tracks, these are all the Asian agencies monitoring the storm from Hong Kong, USA, Japan, Beijing, Taiwan, Korea, including Pagasa once it enters spar and they show the same identical truck towards the north into the direction of the southern islands of Japan. Okay. So, this is uh not a threat to our country, but it will eventually enhance the southwest monsoon and will pave way to the start of our wet or rainy season. So, watch out for the official announcement from the USD Pagasa anytime within this weekend or next week. They will be announcing if it's already the start of the wet or rainy season. Here's the oceanic heat content or the tropical cyclone hit potential from cyclonicwx.com.

[00:10:59]As you can see, the storm is currently at high oceanic heat content or high tropical cycl potential. So, this is likely to intensify within the next 2 days. And this is the forecast models when it comes to the wind intensity. and uh majority of the uh forecast except from the uh uh ECMWF. So this is the ECMWF just a severe tropical storm but the rest of the ensemble okay from US Navy uh hurricane model of GFS and among others including the Google deep mind are showing the system reaching category one two or even three uh classification when it comes to or category when it comes to uh the strength of this uh tropical uh storm Changi. So it's likely to become a typhoon. Okay. So uh those who are living along Okinawa or over the Ryuku Islands, please take all necessary precautions for the arrival of this tropical cyclone. So this is the truck from the multimodel diagnostic comparison. So as you can see here, it looks like uh it's going to reach uh a typhoon or severe tropical storm intensity sometime during the last day of May. And if you take a look at the uh uh deep shear layer or the deep layer shear, the wind shear, the upper level winds, it looks like it's going down. It's currently here. We are currently uh right here. And if we take a look at the uh windshare, it's going down. So it will uh pave way for a dramatic intensification of this uh tropical storm. And the sea surface temperature remains uh warm reaching a high of 28 to 29° centigrade and the mid-level relative humidity is currently high. So, it has ample amounts of water vapor, warm moisture over the uh location of the storm during the next uh 5 days. And here's the latest uh uh wind forecast from ECMWF. And if we move forward for the next uh 5 days, you can clearly see here the arrival of the southwest monsoon. So this is the southwest monsoon uh blowing from Palawan and it will affect uh the western sections of Visayas Muro. Then if we move this slider into uh the second day of June into June 3rd which is already more than 5 days with 50% probability uh the western sections of the zone including Metro Manila will also be affected by the southwesterly winds.

[00:14:07]Okay, the southwest monsoon. So uh wind gust here based on this wind gust forecast is up to 50 km per hour.

[00:14:17]So it will lessen the heat index. It will go down because of windy conditions brought about by the onset of the southwest monsoon. Then uh for the rest of the uh uh 7 to 14-day forecast, the southwest monsoon will remain along the western coastal waters of Luzon. So it like it it looks like we are now on the start of the southwest monsoon but uh uh we don't have any uh succeeding uh cyclones along the horizon for the next uh uh 7 to 14 days. Now on the American model, same uh situation for the next 5 days until June 1 and 2, there will be the onset of the southwest monsoon here and also uh affecting uh the western sections of the country including Metro Manila, Western Lison and on the uh forecast of uh 12 to 14 days the American model which is uh always like that okay I'm forecasting another system over the west Philippy but the probability of this forecast is less than 20% uh accuracy as of this time now if we take a look at the Google deep mind AI model and uh you can see the forecast of uh tropical storm Changi also moving in in par with the multimodels and uh based on the forecast it is likely to reach uh a category 3 storm with wind speeds of 185 kph.

[00:16:04]So same same truck. So there's no worries when it comes to if it will affect our country. So there's no direct threat to our country. Okay. Even the U next uh uh which we mentioned a few video ago uh a few videos ago that there will be a new uh system over the west Philippine sea it's now decreasing so it will be mainly or purely the southwest monsoon but we are still going to observe these are only a few uh forecast dots so uh the probability has decreased when it comes to the next one.

[00:16:44]Okay. And then if we take a look at the uh deterministic model tracks as of 2 a.m. this morning, all are blended together, uh most of them are showing that the system is expected to make a coverure towards the southern coastal areas or coastal waters of Japan. So uh it's not a threat to our country based on the latest one. Now let's take a look at the 5-day forecast when it comes to the rainfall. This is the every afternoon uh effects of rainfall. So uh tomorrow afternoon we could expect isolated rain showers and thunderstorms across Lison, Visayas and Mindanao.

[00:17:28]So don't forget to bring your umbrellas and then uh it's going to be nationwide this isolated the scattered rain showers and thunderstorms because of the onset of the southwesterly wind flow. And then to the weekend as the storm passes over to the north, we have now the uh southwest monsoon uh affecting the western sections of the country. So uh uh always bring your rain gear and umbrella for the next 5 days until Tuesday, June 2nd. And if you take a look at the 24-hour rainfall accumulation forecast, you can clearly see here during the weekend, the uh afternoon or evening rain showers and thunderstorms will dramatically increase becoming more frequent over the western sections of the country. And this is going to be an occasional monsoon rains across the western sections of Visayas uh the western sections of Legos Island region as well as Palawan.

[00:18:31]And then uh it will be more frequent here over the accidental Moroka area.

[00:18:37]And then on June uh 2nd and June the 3rd, it looks like Metro Manila and the western sections of central Lison will have uh rainfall 24-hour rainfall accumulation of uh 50 to 100 mm. Okay.

[00:18:56]Uh some is only up to 50 mm. So uh please take note of that because of the onset of the southwest monsoon. And if we look at uh the June 4 forecast, although this is still uh uh at a low probability, uh this is uh one week uh from now, the areas of uh uh Sambales will have rainfall accumulation 24 hours of more than 100 mm. Okay. So uh please take all near safic oceans along the western sections of Luzon from Ilocos uh region down to the uh southern Tagalog provinces including Muro. Expect rainfall amounts of uh 50 to 100 to more than 100 mm on the uh first few days of June.

[00:19:55]Okay. And then by uh June 5 still the effects will continue and Gordela administrative region will also be uh feeling the effects of the southwest monsoon during June 5 to June 6 and then June 7 it will just be uh uh over the locos uh and provinces Lon uh yeah Lon and then by June 9 10 11 it will down.

[00:20:25]Now take note this forecast is still uh around uh uh 20 to 50% probability. So we will monitor this but expect uh it's going to be a wet uh weather during the first uh week of the month of June.

[00:20:43]Okay. Now for the wave forecast so far it's still good across the coastal waters and the uh uh surrounding seas of our country.

[00:20:55]But uh during the weekend, wave heights here over the uh uh eastern sections of northern Luzon, including Batanis, extreme northern Lison, will be reaching a high of 2 to 3 m, rough and dangerous to small fishing vessels. But the rest of the country will be up to 1 m or 2 m in wave heights. And then on Monday because of the southwest monsoon uh June 1 until uh Wednesday June 3 we might be seeing here wave heights of uh more than 2 m over the coastal waters of uh Colombian Kuba islands over the west Philippine sea. So this is due to the southwest monsoon that is set to arrive during the first week of June that will be next week. Okay. So before we end, here's the global tropics hazards outlook from the climate prediction center issued yesterday. This is validated for the next two to three weeks where in the third week is highly uncertain. The second week is uh roughly at 50% of uh coming through this valid to June 3 to June 9. the second week the Philippines will be having 50 to more than 65% of above average rainfall while the uh uh area of the West Philippine Sea up to the uh Marianas there will be still more than 20% of a tropical cyclone formation but I think uh this is going to focus on the uh tropical storm Changi and there's no other way there's no other system forming uh at the back of the the current system and on weekly which still highly uncertain the Philippines will return to normal rainfall while the Indonesia and Malaysia will be having 50 to more than 65% of below average rainfall. This is brought about by the developing El Nino.

[00:22:57]Okay, so there you go. That's the latest for this uh Thursday, May 28th. And there will be no special coverage since the storm will just enter power without any threat to our country. So our updates will be every other day. So we'll we will return this coming Saturday or this weekend for another update on tropical storm Changi or Doming and the onset of the southwest monsoon from Typhoon 2000. This is Mike Mr. Typhon Padawa. We'll see you again.

[00:23:27]Uh and then uh stay safe always be # weatherweiser # typheniser and thank you so much for watching our channel. God bless to all.