A RING OF FIRE Is Developing...

[00:00:00]The pattern is about to completely shift as a ring of fire sets up across the United States. In today's video, I'll show you the instability map that is raising the storm threat for millions across parts of the eastern United States. Plus, where energy is diving south and east, increasing lift for these storms. And if you stay long enough, I'll show you the potential of a new east coast storm threat as we go into next week. As the great Johnny Cash once said, "I fell into a burning ring of fire and I think a lot of us are going to across parts of the United States over really probably the next couple of weeks." Welcome in everybody.

[00:00:35]My name's Gerald. I'm a meteorologist in Charlotte, North Carolina. Appreciate you trusting me to give you your forecast today. Let's go ahead and dive right on into it. So, what in the world even is a ring of fire and how is that something that's going to actually set up over the United States over probably, like I said, the next couple weeks?

[00:00:51]We're going to get a baby taste of the ring of fire as we go into this coming week and then I think as we go into the start of July, it's going to expand and only get stronger. So, this is what the ring of fire is. It's when high pressure kind of builds into parts of the mid levels of the atmosphere and creates a bit of a train track over parts of the country for storms. This is the high pressure. Uh now, this is not a perfectly beautiful ring of fire, but nonetheless, there is mid-level uh kind of high pressure parked right into parts of the uh eastern and southern United States. And what that is creating is a train track to the north of storms.

[00:01:23]They're going to dive down out of the Midwest. Some are going to move right into the southeast. Others are going to move into parts of the eastern US, the Northeast that is. And some of it could even stall off along the southeast coastline and maybe form some low pressure. Yeah, we're going to be tracking that as well here in today's video. Now, that's the pattern going into early this week. It doesn't look like it'll hold on forever. it kind of breaks down and shifts around a little bit. But then as you go even deeper into uh the end of June and start of July, it looks like that pattern roars back and you can see once again a big ridge of high pressure with the train track kind of going around it with stormy action.

[00:01:58]Another way to look at it and probably an easier way uh to kind of visualize it is with our 500 mibar jetream. And once again, you're going to see the flow here and how it's kind of doing that ring of fire pattern already is in a sense here by the time we go into the start of our weekend here tomorrow for Saturday.

[00:02:15]Notice this is where your high pressure is. And look what the train track is doing around that. It is moving up into the Midwest and then kind of buckling down into parts of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic. And that same pattern holds through the rest of this weekend, including your Father's Day and uh then kind of tries to build back in in a bigger way as we go into the early part of next week. You can see here by Tuesday. See again how that flow is kind of out of the northwest, that northwesterly flow, a sign of the ring of fire setting up here for parts of uh the eastern United States. Now, what happens whenever you have flow like this is little pieces of energy like to rotate around uh that big ridge, and that's what we'll need to track and watch here. Now, you can see one big piece of energy already as we're going into Saturday and Sunday over parts of the Plains and the Midwest. Watch how that kind of moves off to the east and rotates once again around that mid-le high pressure. That'll bring active weather with severe weather and storms.

[00:03:08]And notice some of that energy even kind of gets down into the southeast with a corridor of likely stormy action as we go into next week with at least rounds of afternoon storms as they feel that summertime humidity. And then something kind of new showing up on the model is notice how some of that energy down over the southeast including the Carolas tries to spin up a little bit here off the southeast coastline. Could that bring some enhanced thunderstorm activity? Well, it's absolutely a possibility. Let's start by breaking down the severe weather threat and stormy activity over the next couple of days. I'll show you the instability map.

[00:03:41]Uh we'll take a look at more of these pieces of energy driving this threat and then in things out giving you a quick little sneak peek at what that little energy off the southeast coastline could do. Really quick, literally 10 seconds.

[00:03:53]Go ahead, like the video and subscribe if this video is helping you plan your week ahead so you're always up to date with the latest model data. All right, back to the forecast. As for this weekend, we're actually getting a little bit of a break from the stormy action, at least in the Carolinas. That will not last forever though, and you'll see for our friends down further south towards Georgia, uh, Florida, Alabama, and, uh, other parts here of the southeast. Still plenty of instability. Check it out tomorrow by Saturday. We've got this corridor of, uh, cape or thunderstorm fuel building in from the sunshine state all the way through southern Georgia into Alabama and then stretching up into the plains. So, this is where the corridor of the highest thunderstorm activity will be for tomorrow on your Saturday as that is where the thunderstorm fuel is. And then as you go into Sunday, uh that first map there being Saturday, this being Sunday, notice it starts to build back in now.

[00:04:43]Still doing pretty good in the Carolinas. The Savannah River kind of acting as a buffer from that thunderstorm fuel. The Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, still looking pretty good on Sunday. But that thunderstorm fuel starting to work back north. On top of that, wind shear starting to build back in for some areas as well. If we go and put on that upper level windshar map, you can see how it's kind of overlapping some of that instability, specifically through the plains. So, I think this weekend it's going to be more of a Kansas uh Missouri kind of threat for severe weather. Then as we go into Sunday, probably more of the Ohio Valley uh through Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky going to kind of get in on some of the action as that is where the ingredients are kind of overlapping here for severe weather. Let's time it out for you on future radar and I'll show it to you here. This is the HR model, by the way, our high resolution model. One of my favorite uh short range models to use. Here's our composite reflectivity.

[00:05:31]I'm actually going to change the map here so we can get something that looks a little bit uh prettier and uh probably easy to see. All right, so here we go.

[00:05:39]Let's back it up. Uh this evening for your Friday, we're actually dry for a lot of folks. Now, we do have a shower or a line of showers and storms down through parts of Florida. And you know what? I'm sure you folks are happy to see that down there in Jacksonville, Tallahassee, even trying to make its way down towards Ocala and kind of losing steam as it gets to the I4 corridor.

[00:05:56]Also, some evening showers and storms here in South Carolina. Uh now, you know, these won't be as severe as I showed you with the instability map.

[00:06:03]Most of the instability more down towards Florida. Uh and you can see some of these uh feisty storms over Louisiana as well, but that instability will be building back in and the severe threat will be rising with that as we go into early next week. So, here we go. By tomorrow on your Saturday, I'll zoom the map out a little bit because we're going to start to get some more action further to the north. Uh tomorrow, more rounds of showers and storms through Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and into the Florida panhandle. Remember folks, these areas just got hit hard by Arthur from a flooding standpoint. So, probably going to be adding more fuel to the fire there. The flooding threat will be something I need you to be mindful of.

[00:06:37]The severe weather threat though tomorrow going to be the highest up into Nebraska with that complex of storms.

[00:06:42]But watch what it does. As I mentioned, ring of fire. Look how it kind of starts up there in the plains and then kind of starts to work off to uh the east and the southeast. That's a pattern that is going to, I think, become very common as we go through uh the beginning of July and the end of June. That's a classic ring of fire look, this northwest flow.

[00:07:01]And for my folks here in the Carolas and the Mid-Atlantic in general, including Virginia, heck, even Delaware, Maryland, Georgia, and even parts of Tennessee and Kentucky here, we need to watch these complex of storms as we start to gain some of that instability back. If these dive south and towards the Appalachin chain, a lot of the times this is how we can get some of our strongest wind gust outside of uh the tornado threat that we have sometimes in the spring. But these storms can pack a real punch uh from a wind standpoint. You can see that here on Sunday happening through parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and then could even work east from there. All right, let's track how the pattern goes from there. Like I said, instability going to be building back in early next week. Let me show you for who. talk about wind shear at the same time frame and then break down that little east coast storm potential that could dump maybe some good rain in areas that really need it in parts of the southeast by Sunday evening that instability here shown on your map that thunderstorm fuel that cape starts to try to build back north a bit and uh check it out it's now starting to make its way back into South Carolina for your father's day all of the southeast even up into the Ohio Valley getting in on that fuel for strong to severe storms now you keep it going and uh by the time we go to Monday starts to build back into the Mid-Atlantic. So, North Carolina, Virginia, you're back in that thunderstorm fuel mode. Uh, same thing for Kentucky there, down into Tennessee, even up into parts of the Delm Marva, folks in Maryland, uh, Delaware, southern New Jersey, even all the way up to Philly trying to get in on some of that fuel. Tries to get beaten back down a little bit by Tuesday, but it is stubborn, holding on in the south. And what we need to watch is kind of the boundary here. this clash. Remember that ring of fire I told you about is going to be bringing little pieces of energy on the northern edge of this uh thunderstorm fuel sometimes whenever it rides that boundary. It can get a little bit of boost from a spin uh department or a spin standpoint. And that is something that we will definitely want to watch in parts of the southeast as we go into next week. What kind of wind shear do we have with this though? I mean, it's one thing to have thunderstorm fuel. It's another to actually have wind shear with it. If I can uh turn the right thing on. So, we'll kind of overlap them here a little bit. And uh notice by the time we go into your uh Monday and uh early next week, here's Monday evening, you do have a little bit of overlapping of ingredients here into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. You've got some wind shear. Uh they are trying to overlap some of that instability. If I turn the instability off, you can see bulk shear values kind of in that 20 30 range.

[00:09:21]Anytime you start to get to the pink colors, it's a lot more conducive for severe weather, but you can still get it in some of those blue colors as well.

[00:09:28]And uh checking out that instability as you go deeper into the week by Tuesday.

[00:09:32]Look at this once again. See how you kind of have this general form to the jetream with that ring of fire. That is going to bring a little bit of wind shear further south on top of what is already some instability uh building back north. So see that clashing right there. That's the areas we need to watch. And that does set up right through parts of the Mid-Atlantic including Virginia, North Carolina. Now I wouldn't look at exact cities right now. It's too soon to say Raleigh or Charlotte or Richmond or DC or Atlanta have the biggest threat, but just know the ingredients. They're getting close.

[00:10:02]You know, they're kind of uh playing eye tag. It's like when you play eye tag with someone across the bar and uh you know, you kind of decide if you're going to go talk to them. That's what the atmosphere is doing here with these ingredients. Are they going to link up?

[00:10:13]Are they going to hook up? That's something absolutely to watch. And then you keep it going here from a windshare perspective. And it kind of stays uh loaded up here. In fact, you get another boost of wind shear further off to the south and east there with another dip in the jetream as we go towards next weekend towards the end of June. So, that's a look at some of the ingredients. Now, let's show you future radar and how this is going to look. And that'll also give you an idea of maybe that little low pressure enhancing some rainfall and spin right along the southeast coastline that could move inland. Let's pick up where we left off with the high resolution model data and continue it here with our European uh kind of deterministic model. Here we go.

[00:10:48]By Sunday, like I said, watch these storms up into parts of the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, St. Louis, Illinois, which is state that has just gotten hammered over and over with severe storms so far this year. Need to be on guard there for your Sunday. Same thing for Indiana.

[00:11:01]Some of those storms try to roll into Ohio and into the Northeast as we go into your Monday. Speaking of Monday, this is a day that this system is going to start to kick up enough lift that we need to watch for some strong to severe storms from the Northeast all the way down into even parts of the Carolas, Virginia, West Virginia. Looks like some uh storms getting going there in the Tennessee Valley as well, even into northern Alabama and Mississippi. Pretty frequent lightning with these. Some hail and strong straight line winds are going to be the main threats that we need to watch with any of those storms that kind of work on through. Then we go into Tuesday and Tuesday is another day that some stormy action tries to get going.

[00:11:36]Check it out. Some complexes of storms here into the deep south. The euro showing it down into Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, and even into parts of Arkansas there. This is that train track, that ring of fire that is rotating these areas of energy that are causing these storms uh around it here around that area of high pressure. And then you start to notice things get pretty active down into the southeast with more rounds of these storms by the middle of next week. Check it out by Wednesday. More areas showing up on radar. And at this point, this is whenever we need to watch right along the southeast coastline. See this uh kind of frontal boundary that stalls out. Um uh you can see it here pretty easy by the middle and end of next work week. That's this area right here. You have a front kind of draped in there.

[00:12:18]I'll turn on our um excuse me, our pressure lines and that should be able to show it to you pretty well. Yeah. So, we've got a big uh kind of front right here. Anytime you see these kinks in the pressure lines here, how it's kind of kinking like that, that is a sign that you have a surface front on the ground uh here at the ground level or sea level as we say. when that parks itself over the Gulf Stream, a lot of the times what can happen is that can kind of create up a little area of spin. And uh notice on the European here, it's not a lot, but that does try to throw a little bit of moisture back into North Carolina and parts of the Mid-Atlantic as we go into maybe the middle and end of next week.

[00:12:55]If we switch on over, we can take a look at a different model and it'll probably show it a little bit better. Let's show you the Euro AI and we'll hope that it loads in nice and quickly. Sometimes it can load in a little uh a little wonky.

[00:13:07]Sometimes it takes a second, but we'll uh give it a moment here to load on in.

[00:13:10]And we'll start by taking a look at our low-level spin map. So, this will be 850 mibars. Uh again, remember in meteorology, for uh whatever reason, we decided to use millibars instead of altitude. So, 850 millibars is pretty low to the ground. 1,000 millibars is the surface. 0 millibars is all the way up in outer space. So, 850 about a mile or so above our heads. Notice some of that energy diving down into the southeast as we go into next week. There we go. By Tuesday, this is a front trying to work on through right here. Uh that uh big shield of green that's going to help create some of those storms I showed you. Maybe try to uh destabilize or stabilize the atmosphere a little bit on the back side. But then that front gets draped across the southeast and notice a little bit of energy kind of left over here across the southeast coastline. So that's what I'm watching.

[00:13:56]by next week that if it should form and get into something, you know, could add some pretty good rainfall even without it getting a name. If we take a look at uh total rainfall here or total QPF on this model, you'll see how it kind of uh racks it up a little bit here into parts of the southeast. So, I'll zoom on out.

[00:14:13]This is rainfall uh starting uh now through the early part of this week.

[00:14:17]Showers and storms pretty common for a lot of areas. And then right here by next weekend, see how it kind of picks up some totals there into North Carolina. Uh that's a little area of uh that stalled front trying to work back inland. Something absolutely to keep a very close watch eye on. Very close watch eye. Very close watch or eye on.

[00:14:35]How about that? Or And you know what y'all? It's been a long week tracking Arthur. So let's just say keep a close eye on it. There we go. Man, it's it has been a long one, hasn't it? So that that is something absolutely to watch.

[00:14:45]Definitely could help out with the drought in parts of North Carolina.

[00:14:48]We'll see. Fingers crossed on that. Uh with uh all things considered, we definitely could use the rain. Let's switch on over, take a look at just a couple more uh models here with the rainfall potential and then after that to discuss a couple final things at the end. Here's the European model and its rainfall forecast now through uh the 29th of June. So this gets us all the way out through the next 10 days. Shows a couple hot spots. So a pocket here into the mid west, the Ohio Valley, another big pocket with that ring of fire further south. And then also notice see that uptick there in eastern North Carolina. That is the European parent model as well. Picking up on some higher rainfall totals with that stalled out front maybe trying to throw some moisture back in. Maybe even some low pressure trying to get going. It's something to watch pattern recognition wise. It's a pattern that supports it even if a lot of the global models right now don't immediately jump on it. But hey, that's why we do meteorology here, not modelology. It's sometimes about predicting what the models might pick up on that they're not fully seeing right now. So watching that. And for what it's worth, the GFS model also shows some of that corridor in between. Now, in the Carolinas and Virginia, it's a lot like how this summer has been. Some communities will win. They will get these bigger totals of a couple of inches of rain. Others might get stuck in between. And it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be exactly how this map shows it, but it's typical summertime pattern where with these pieces of energy kind of rolling off the Appalachin chain, some communities going to score big, others, yeah, gonna have to keep uh, you know, running up the water bill here by watering the garden.

[00:16:12]That is if you don't have uh water restrictions in place. All right, here's your end card. And the things to uh kind of note, actually, you know what I did not do is save the end card. Hey, you know what? We can do that on the spot, though. Hey, watch this. Y'all are once again going to see how the sausage is made. Wait for this.

[00:16:30]Voila. I forgot to hit the save button.

[00:16:32]My bad. Ring of fire ramping up as we go into July. That is the main headline of the day. We are done with Arthur.

[00:16:38]Luckily, even if it may try to reform off the Carolina coastline, not a big problem outside of some rip currents.

[00:16:42]Uh, but I think we kind of beat that horse to death over the past couple of days. Rounds of powerful storms. I showed you the instability and wind shear. So, wherever those overlap, could see some stronger storms and east coast spin next week, won't necessarily call it a storm or anything like that, but saw out frontal boundary. Little mezoscale spin comes up. Yeah, could try to bring some muchneeded rainfall where we need it down here in the Carolinas.

[00:17:04]All right, folks. Well, that's all I've got for you in today's video. Appreciate you tuning in. Come back tomorrow. I'll have a brand new update on that cute little feature, if you will, off the coast and more updates on this storm train on the way. See you all then.