Bengal Elections | Explained: Phase 1 Vs Phase 2: Why Bengal's Election Battle Changes Completely

追加: 2026-04-28

[00:00:00]So let's get started. First and foremost, try and remember that phase 1 is very different from phase 2. And in a moment, I'll try and explain why. Phase 2 on the 29th of April has 142 seats.

[00:00:12]The trumul in these seats [music] won 105 seats in 2019, 123 [music] seats in the looks in 2021. And in the Lok Saba elections of 2024, [music] the TMC had 115 seats. The BJP in contrast in 2024 in the Lok Sabha elections when you convert Lok Sabha seats into assembly segments had only 27 leads. In the assembly election of 2021, the BJP had 18 wins and in [music] the 2019 uh look sabai elections when the BJP did very well in West Bengal. But in the second phase, they had only 37 leads which basically means in the past three elections in West Bengal in the seats that go to polls on the 29th, the Trinamul has a decisive advantage. The BJP [music] starts from a very very low base. Compare and contrast this with the first phase [music] 152 seats. Let's try and get a sense of what happened to explain to you the nature of the competition which is far closer in 2024 during the Lok Sabha elections. Remember the north and the west [music] went to polls in the first phase. In 2024 it was 77 for the thrum versus [music] 63. So you can already see in comparison to the second phase a much tighter contest [music] in 2024. Even in 2021 when the Turul won a landslide across West Bengal, it was 92 versus 59 in [music] the first phase, a much closer contest.

[00:01:39]And in 2019 in the first phase, [music] the BJP was actually ahead. 84 leads in the Lok Sabha elections for the BJP versus [music] 59 for the Tur. So very big difference. How does this convert into strike rate? So basically from the perspective of Mtab [music] Banerjee and her strategist the second phase is Trinamul's insurance policy because this is where the party has a very high strike rate. In the 2019 Lok Sabai elections the party won 74% of the seats. In 2021 they won a whopping 87% of the seats in phase 2. [music] And in 2024 they won 81% of the seats in phase 2. The BJP in contrast won just 26% of the seats in 2019, [music] 13% in 21, and 19% in 2024.

[00:02:30]When you compare [music] this with the strike rate of the BJP, phase 1 is where the BJP had a better strike rate. In 2019, the BJP [music] was actually ahead with 55% of the wins. In 2021, it was 61 versus 39. [music] And in 2024, it was 51 versus 41. you. The point I'm trying to make is phase 2 and phase 1 are very very