😱Putin came with a new proposal on war! Trump didn't expect a statement. Decision on war stunned

[00:00:00]Behind Ukraine's back, the United States and Russia are reportedly pushing a temporary ceasefire deal that could ease sanctions on Moscow while offering Ukraine no security guarantees whatsoever. We'll talk about this with Alexander Karv, expert at Ukrainian Prisma think tanks near lecturer at K Mahila Academy. Alexander, glad to see you and thank you for joining us.

[00:00:24]>> Good evening. Thanks for having me.

[00:00:26]Alexander, the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia announced by US President Donald Trump for May 9th to 11th has formally ended and neither side has announced any extension. The previously announced 1,00 for 10,000 prisoner exchange has also not yet taken place.

[00:00:46]Um, all of this was supposedly under Trump's guarantees as I understand. uh what actions should the administration take pressure on Russia or something else? Your thoughts?

[00:00:59]Well, unfortunately, we are dealing with a non-class, nonstandard United States administration. And that is why uh there there are no classic way of reacting to what just happened. Because for any other American president, especially given the last 40 to 50 years of American presidency, these actions by Moscow will be a definite red flag. That will be a signal to impose more sanctions, to impose more restrictions, limitations, both personal, organizational, and state level. That will be a sign to be more persuasive and more pushy when talking to China about Russia, for example. or that will be a very good sign for them to be more pro- European and pro- Ukrainian not only in their communication but also in their security decision and international decisions as it is. So basically in that regard we will be dealing with some something more Reagan Reagan like if if I may. But talking about Trump, we always should remember that anything strategic, anything uh uh unnecessarily burdening for him will not be completed will not be implemented. In this case, I I suppose we will not see any reaction to it because Trump is quite famous on omitting anything that Russia is doing wrong but emphasizing everything Russia is doing right for the sole purpose of just getting Russia to the negotiating table. And so from this Trumpian logic, if he will be pushy on Russia, he will not get a deal. If he will not get a deal, he will not be proclaimed the best and the brightest diplomat of them all.

[00:02:40]And that is why I'm afraid he will not react in any possible way to the things that Russia did with his own proposal of a ceasefire.

[00:02:49]>> Oander, according to legal sources, the following is being discussed. A ceasefire may be introduced in November as the Americans are reportedly holding secret negotiations with Russia on suspending hostilities. The United States is allegedly seeking a temporary ceasefire during the election period in order to boost Trump's approval ratings after failed promises regarding Ukraine.

[00:03:14]In exchange, Moscow could receive partial sanctions relief, although the Kremlin continues to insist on full control over Donbas and international recognition of the occupied territories, including the Zapian nuclear power plant. Um, what do you think about this?

[00:03:30]Does this not resemble another temporary ceasefire? Something akin to the victory date truce, but this time time to the US elections on November.

[00:03:41]Unfortunately for Russ, Russians do understand correctly then the closer to elections we get, the more easier it will be for them to persuade Trump to be more lenient towards Russia. It will be much easier for Moscow to push on the item of partial or full sanctions reduction. It is much easier for Russians to push for the control of the temporary occupied territories because the closer it is to election, the less time Trump will have to implement any kind of a strategic decision. The less time Trump will have to implement any kind of a productive pressure both on Russia and on Ukraine because unfortunately we do see that Trump is still eager to push on Zilinski. Trump is still eager to do something about Ukrainians not being able and willing to uh bend over to Russian demands. So for Trump it is quite obvious he needs his deal. Whatever the cost, whatever the repercussions, whatever the whatever the positions of both sides are, he needs his deal done. And so in in lure of that Russians do understand that they should wait. they should just wait for the circumstances to be right and the circumstances will be right the closer to to the election the Americans get. So basically all these preposterous ideas which were not feasible even 2 years ago, 3 years ago, they will be on the table for the sole purpose of just getting Trump some uh additional points of support and getting Trump some additional success story he can present to his own uh electorate and to his own voters. Osen, at the same time, the these proposals uh reportedly contain no security guarantees for Ukraine. Uh why are there still no clear security guarantees for Ukraine? And what do you know about this?

[00:05:38]>> There are several positions there. First and foremost, if there will be some kind of a security guarantee for Ukraine, Russians will not be so communicative and so diplomatic. Basically for Russians any security guarantee for Ukraine starting even before the full-scale invasion was a red line. That is why one of the main topics for them is to prohibit Ukraine from entering NATO. And basically if we will had any kind of a substantial working type of security guarantees from the United States, Russia will consider it to be a diplomatic and political defeat. That's the first point. And again returning to the main argument of Donald Trump, he needs to get a deal done. And if there is something blocking the deal, he will just not mention it within the diplomatic uh communication surrounding the deal. That's point number one. Point number two is that of course this particular American administration is is trying to refocus refocus towards Asia towards Middle East and try to abandon some part of their European responsibilities especially if those responsibility concerns Ukraine or stopping Russian aggression. And in that particular regard, we do see that providing any security or political guarantees for Ukraine will just entangle American diplomacy and American presidential administration into even more responsibilities on the European theater of war, which is kind of unnatural for Trump and his fellows. So that's point number two. And point number three, I think one of the most essential in that Trump's main idea is to reduce the spending spendings on the his own allies and reduce any part kind of responsibilities or duties he had within NATO or within any other um alliance or any other international treaty. So basically providing us providing Ukraine with security guarantees will just provide for more expenditures and provide for more duties to be upheld which is once again contrary to the beliefs and understanding of this particular administration. However, at the same time they cannot refuse the idea of the security guarantees because it will be considered a weakness. It will look to everybody else in the world especially to Russians and Chinese as a sign of American weakness. So that is why Americans cannot abandon the idea of security guarantees but at the same time they cannot comment on them and they cannot prove that these guarantees will be in place when the time comes.

[00:08:08]>> Oland and European allies of the United States are becoming increasingly concerned about the future of the pearl prioritize Ukraine recruitment requirements. least program for Ukraine as the war against Iran is depleting American weapons stockpiles. This was reported by the Washington Post. So what are the risks?

[00:08:33]There are several risks there. Well, first and foremost, we do see that the American industrial military complex is not suitable for several wars at the same time. So they're basically quite adapted for the spending on one specific conflict or just being proactive in the times of peace. But when Donald Trump is finalized his epic fury operation at the same time getting ready for his Cuba operation at the same time upholding his responsibilities within Purel initiative at the same time still trying to be the biggest seller of arms to European market well it's kind of overburdening for a lot of companies especially for the main one among them for Loit Martin for General Motors for General Electrics for Boston Dynamics. So basically the market is not that big and it's not quite suitable for the wartime scenario that Donald Trump is dragging America into. So that's the first part of the answer. The second the political part of the answer is that once again Trump is trying to diminish American presence in Europe and he is trying not to provoke Putin to exit the negotiation process.

[00:09:41]That is why anything that goes along with Russian position, including the curtailment of PRL initiative or the production of specific munitions necessary for Ukraine through this initiative is also crucial for Trump strategy because it will provide for a more lenient Russia and it will provide for a more successful negotiation. Of course, more successful for Trump and only Trump in that situation. Hence, Ukraine or Europe will not get anything done or anything specific from his activities there.

[00:10:12]>> Alexandra and U Trump is reportedly more seriously than in recent weeks considering the resumption of a large scale military operation against Iran.

[00:10:24]sources cited by CNN um said the US president is losing patience or the prolonged closure of the strait of Ormus as well as what he perceives as divisions within the Iranian leadership preventing uh meaningful concessions in nuclear negotiations. What consequences could um renew US military action against Iran have for um for example global energy markets and not only also your thoughts?

[00:10:58]>> Well, once again we will see the sharp rise of oil prices. We'll see the disturbances at the financial markets.

[00:11:05]We'll see the continuation of this stagflation tendencies in the western markets. we'll see some kind of stagnation in Asian markets because unfortunately for China but fortunately for us they are also influenced by the situation in the Middle East and by the provocations both from Tehran and from Washington. So basically we will once again be drawn back one month beforehand and we will see the same situation we have already witnessed within this conflict when the situation escalated pretty quickly during the first period of the epic Europe. But at the same time we should also understand that as of now both the United States and Iran are basically trying to convince one another that they are ready for negotiation.

[00:11:51]However, such negotiation will be conducted solely within the framework of each given state. So Iranians are presenting themselves uh as the only part of this uh uh duo who has a working negotiation plan. On the other hand, Americans are presenting plans that can work only if they're implemented in their uh entire um scale. So there is no room for um diligent consensus between Iran and Washington. So they're basically still playing this psychological political poker trying to present themselves as a bigger player than the other guy at the table. And so I do not see a potential for a full-fledged escalation. Uh but these um insights which were definitely guided by the Trump administration they are just suggesting that the Americans are ready for such an escalation. They do not suggest that Americans will do such an escalation. On the contrary I do believe that such insights are only published in order to scare Iran into getting to the negotiating table. And Trump is expected to travel to China accompanied by several e executives from America's largest companies including Elon Musk and Tim Cook. The US president plans to meet with Chinese President Xiinping to discuss economic and energy issues.

[00:13:17]According to CBS News, he may also pressure China to encourage Iran toward ending the war with the United States.

[00:13:24]What should be expected from the meeting between Trump and she in your opinion?

[00:13:28]What are the main geopolitical maybe risks surrounding the Trump she meeting?

[00:13:36]>> Well, first and foremost, the meeting will be as uh techful and as uh serene and as cheerful as it possibly can because for both Washington and Beijing, this meeting is very important to go smoothly at least from the media point of view. So basically it is important for them to show that although there are a lot of differences and even divergences in the position of both people's republic of China and the United States they are still able to communicate there are still stable politicians who are ready for negotiations and who are ready to establish a good working world order and to cut basically world between them between the United States and China.

[00:14:19]However, we should anticipate that yes, Trump will be very pushy. He will be very pushy on the Iranian topic. He might get pushy on the Russian topic because China did nothing to get Russia to the negotiating table and it was something that China as it seems from the last meeting that China promised Trump to get Putin to the table. At the same time, we should also understand that China has its own positions and its own values and uh let's put it that way objectives. As for this meeting, chines Chinese representatives will definitely push on the Taiwan issue. For example, maybe for some concessions on the Chinese side, they will ask Trump to recognize that Taiwan is a part of China allegedly getting from the strategic ambiguity that was the main strategy for the United States concerning Taiwan from 1952.

[00:15:15]So there are a lot of talks about the possible push against Trump. I mean Xinping push against Trump when it comes to uh 5G technology and when it comes to sanctions when it comes to tariff wars that are still in place in between China and the US. So basically the situation is as follows both sides have their own interest and has their own views on how those interests should be implemented.

[00:15:40]At the same time, both sides also do understand that they should play a pretty picture both for their nations, for their adversaries, for their uh colleagues, from their allied states, but they also should be kind of um very actor-like, very imaginative in that. So there will be a battle, there will be a great diplomatic battle behind the curtains, behind the scene. But on the bright side of the coin, on the media part of the issue, we will see a very productive and a very fruitful discussion from two nations.

[00:16:16]>> Alexander, you mentioned Taiwan. Uh Taiwan is I know refused to part of yes weapons package and Washington's frustration has reached a boiling point.

[00:16:32]That's true because uh on the one hand we do understand that Taiwan is still very reliant on the American help but at the same time Taiwan cannot stand the unpredictable position of the United States because for decades the United States was a trustworthy and reliable ally for Taiwan and for everybody else basically in the world. But now we see that uh at any given point in time the Trump administration can just seize any weapon uh manufacturing or weapon transmission to Taiwan and Taiwan will just be left on its own. At the same time, we do see that the tariff politics of Trump administration and of his ministers is also very harmful for Taiwan who is still one of the backbones of the technological development not only for the United States but for the whole west and basically for the whole world especially given that the uh the vast majority of chips and motherboards for a lot of components and a lot of technologies in the west is produced or designed in Taiwan. So from this point of view, well, the states should be more respectful and understanding towards Taiwan. And this uh actions on the side of Taipei is just one another example of Taiwan trying to uh re restate and stress out once again and time after time that they are allies and and not vessel states of the United States. Alexander and Trump is also reportedly seriously um considering the possibility of making Venezuela or the 51st state of the United States. This was stated by John Roberts following a phone interview with the US president.

[00:18:14]Although no further details were provided. Um remember earlier Donald Trump claimed he had high approval ratings in Venezuela and would be prepared to run for president there. Why is Trump making increasingly controversial geopolitical statements?

[00:18:30]Um, you know, it's Yeah, it's like a joke, but uh but but I think not.

[00:18:41]>> You you see uh if we compare geopolitics to chess, Trump always has some additional figurines. So basically if we are to have eight pawns on either e either side of the desk, Trump will put 11 additional pawns. If we are to have two knights and two rooks, Trump will have additionally four rooks and 17 knights just to be on the safe side. So basically with the interviews and messages like that, Trump is just creating additional topic points and additional agenda items for his future negotiation with Xinping and for his future negotiation with anybody else. He is just creating his own reality when he is the one controlling the narrative. He is the one proposing topics and everybody else should just listen to him and should just adhere to his own version of this reality. So I do not think that Trump will go ahead with this threats. It will be just a narrative trick on his side. But once again, it's a very profitable narrative trick for him because he is the one controlling the narrative. Now >> dear friends, you can write your thoughts in a comment below uh with see everything. Um Alandra, thank you so much for this u interesting and important conversation. As always, thanks for supporting Ukraine and Ukrainian people. Alexandra Karv, expert at Ukrainian prism think tents near lecture at Kil Academy was with us today. Alexandra um I wish you all the best. Dear friends, please share this interview and continue supporting Ukraine. Um see you. I wish you all the best.

[00:20:18]>> Thanks for having me.