Tinubunomics At 3: Reform Success Or Economic Pain

追加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]And now to our first conversation, 3 years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu launched sweeping economic reforms, Nigeria's economy is showing signs of stronger government revenue, improving foreign reserves, and you know, stabilizing macroeconomic indicators.

[00:00:15]But despite those gains, millions of Nigerians continue to battle inflation, rising living costs, and economic hardship. So this morning we examine the real impact of Tinubunomics. Has the administration laid the foundation for long-term economic recovery, or the reforms placing too much pressure on households and businesses? And ultimately, when will ordinary Nigerians begin to feel the benefits of these tough economic decisions? Joining me now to discuss we have Mr. Mukhtar Muhammad, CEO Finance with Mukhtar. He joins me right here in the studio. It's great to have you, sir. Good morning.

[00:00:49]>> Good morning, Ladi. My pleasure.

[00:00:51]>> Yes, so we're looking at Tinubunomics >> that term.

[00:00:55]>> [laughter] >> uh this morning, and it's been quite the ride, you know, 3 years so far.

[00:01:01]And we have uh quite uh mixed data.

[00:01:04]>> Yeah, I like calling it the good, the bad, the ugly.

[00:01:06]>> Yes, the good, the bad, um and the ugly.

[00:01:09]So, if we flip over now to see um government revenue, >> That's the good.

[00:01:15]>> That's the good. That has risen and that's risen a lot since uh uh we have we when he came to power it was 711 billion.

[00:01:26]That was May 2023. Uh current level about 3.6 um trillion. That's monthly revenue generation. So, >> Yeah, but again they will tell you what was the exchange rate at the time they were receiving this amount of money. Even if it's Even if it was coming in Naira, then they will not tell you that, "Oh, the 3 years of government not uh maybe the state and the local government tell you we are not collecting so much like we used to collect." Even like Even looking at it by and by the exchange rate. But when you look at in We have to also be realistic to ask them that even when the exchange rate was that you were not collecting dollars, you were collecting naira. So, if you look at that, then definitely I think in terms of revenue, we have seen huge revenue for government. Huge huge revenue. But, the impact has been very minimal. But, again, that's a topic for another day.

[00:02:09]But, I think he has done that well.

[00:02:11]>> So, I I I wonder um because, you know, we we keep talking about I remember when, you know, where the elections were happening, uh that uh period, the the sentiment was whoever won that time, you know, be APC or be or whoever, um they were all pro-business.

[00:02:31]>> Yeah, they were pro-business, yeah.

[00:02:32]>> Right?

[00:02:33]And I'm wondering what else what else could have been done differently to not have the negatives of these reforms? You know, seeing that revenue has jumped a lot.

[00:02:45]>> I I don't know what he would have done differently, to be sincere. Um in as much as sometime we look at the tough decisions, we have to commend the president. He took some very very tough decision that took years and years.

[00:02:56]Nobody was ready to tread that path, especially the removal of subsidy. That was a monster. That was a drilling. That was what was making people mortal billionaire to the detriment of the ordinary Nigerians or even to generality of Nigerians, not just the ordinary Nigerian. He took a booster. Remember that popular uh statement that the subsidy gone. And it was I think it's 3 years today we had that statement because it was we were made to understand that would that was not even in the script. So, that tells you the kind of boldness uh that the the president was able to do. I remember I was on a program that day and we just saw the price of fuel move from 200 naira to about 800 naira and everybody thought the whole world would come to an end. But, today here we are, we are even buying fuel at 1,300. So, it it was a very uh tough decision he made. But, again, you could look back to read if you're in government, you see it it was a good decision. We no more see them query again about how much was paid for federal uh for state how much was supposed to get how much was paid to subsidy how much was going to the federation account how much is going to NNPC we we no more see them query about that again. So, [snorts] you have to give that to him. I think that was a tough decision, but today looking back at it if you are in government as that was in quote if you are in government the revenue have improved but if you are not in Nigeria it has been a huge struggle to match up with daily living because of the high cost of energy. Both whether you are looking at PMS or you are also looking at electricity.

[00:04:24]>> It has been Do you think that there was a way that um would have gone through the whole process of subsidy is gone and somehow had a cushion?

[00:04:35]>> Yes, I think I think there should have been a way we said it we said it over and over there should have been a way.

[00:04:41]>> But again you think we are rich enough or >> No.

[00:04:44]>> Since we are an oil producer is there a way we would have >> No, let let me let us go to oil producer. Oil producing that we have not been able to produce up to 2 million barrel per day. That is our short in oil producer. Oil producer whatever before he came into power don't forget that production was even about 800,000 barrel per day. So, we were not we were we were we were we just we were country that was producing we were having so much of more oil theft than producing. So, we not we don't have to look at that way. At the time he came in for me we are not even oil producing at all. I mean he took the tough decisions Yes, there was a way maybe there would have been a way if it was >> planned.

[00:05:20]>> Like I said it came up spontaneous. Subsidy is gone and it it took a lot of his um um um um team by storm. Nobody has so there were no consistency plan.

[00:05:35]Even if don't forget even if President Buhari at that time have said that they don't they don't have a they only have enough to pay till the end of June.

[00:05:48]So, ordinarily we are expecting that subsidy will be gone by June ending. But he took that bold step May 29th, 1 month before that tenure. So, maybe there would have been a consistency plan in terms of seeing how that could have and mitigate the impact on the ordinary Nigerians. But don't forget that the longer you delay such processes, the more we have seen that it will not be taken. So, I think he he knew that that if I don't say this now, we'll start working on it, we will not get there.

[00:06:17]So, I I I think there was no other dis- Remember, like you said, even during his campaign, Atiku Abubakar said he will he will remove subsidy.

[00:06:28]Peter Obi said subsidy will be gone, but there may have been a different method.

[00:06:32]Maybe Peter Obi might have been telling us that if he had gotten into power, he would have waited for 3 months, he would have put a lot of things in place before he would remove subsidy. But don't forget that at the time Buhari was leaving when Tinubu take over took over, Nigeria was broke.

[00:06:46]We were practically borrowing to pay subsidy.

[00:06:50]The At that time he came in, the federation account, both the state, the local government, and the federal have not had any dime from NNPC.

[00:06:59]So, I wonder that how we would have been able to do that.

[00:07:01]>> who won, >> Regardless who won, we would we would have had this issue. Maybe would have even had it tougher because again, if you want to play to the gallery of the people, and that's what we have been doing for the past 15 years, that's why we never get there.

[00:07:13]>> we had some kind of AI simulation.

[00:07:16]>> [laughter] >> No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

[00:07:21]>> If you are due for surgery 15 years ago, when you were younger, you didn't do the surgery and doing the surgery 15 years after, of course the pain will be much because your body system is not like it used to be 15 years ago. So, the pain we are suffering now is based on the decision we did not accept 15 years ago.

[00:07:41]>> Right. All right, let's do more of the good.

[00:07:44]>> Yeah.

[00:07:44]>> Um foreign reserves, uh external reserves, uh when he came to power is what 35.09 billion. There was a steady decline in the foreign reserves. Now, uh the last um data shows 49.26 billion dollars.

[00:08:01]So, we've been hovering around this level since 2015.

[00:08:05]>> Remember that when that data come on came up was for different result that we are having there was based on both on on borrowing the one we're supposed to pay or whatever put together. Remember that at the real result we had at that time at that time people were saying it was about 3 billion dollars. Remember that conversation >> that conversation and that was the real reserve compared when you remove all the net and all >> net exactly. So, if you look at the foreign reserve, I mean, they have done well.

[00:08:34]Look I mean, I need to say they have done well. Why?

[00:08:38]When they came in they had those issues.

[00:08:40]Remember exchange rate, they were not ready to defend the currency, the currency moved as high as almost 2,000. People were even saying we'll get to exchange rate of 5,000 naira to a dollar. We saw the panic. We saw they themselves also were panicking. They today brew the change at the end tomorrow they revoke the license next tomorrow you come. So, there was a lot of panic, but I think you have to give it to the CBN.

[00:09:04]They held their nerve.

[00:09:06]They went through the process.

[00:09:08]Today, even if exchange rate is not what it was when they came to power, you can say there is stability.

[00:09:16]>> Stability.

[00:09:17]>> There is no more rent seeking.

[00:09:19]There's no more that back end whereby if you are close to government, you have that differential rate. If you are going to remember that time you are going to hash you had exchange rate at 350 for going to hash. And then people that are doing business we have exchange rate at 700 and something, but people that are going to go to hash government will give them. There was so much and when you look at the trial the current CBN former CBN governor, you realize that so much happened.

[00:09:44]There was wastage.

[00:09:45]But I think they have closed that that that gap. The market you remember when they came in the CBN said, "We want to make the naira competitive."

[00:09:54]And that has happened. Now they said, "After making the naira competitive said, we want to make the naira stable."

[00:09:59]Now the naira is stable.

[00:10:01]It may not be the kind of stability we want, but Remember I said in your program there was time you asked me that "When will we see that we have had stability in the exchange rate?" And I told you then that "When they would tell me to use my naira card and pay for dollar transaction." I said, "That is when." We didn't have that for the longest time.

[00:10:24]>> We didn't have it.

[00:10:24]>> Right. It's having It's happening now.

[00:10:27]Now the banks are even You can see that different banks have different rates.

[00:10:31]I remember then I said, "Why was the CBN shying of getting banks involved in the FX market?" But today banks are involved.

[00:10:38]It's a lot of wash with liquidity. You see the exchange rate between the If you have to use your naira card and if you even have to use go to the bureau de change, you realize that you just use your naira card it's cheaper. So there's so much liquidity in the system in terms of dollar liquidity.

[00:10:52]>> Right.

[00:10:52]>> And don't forget that the current recapitalization of the banking sector also drive a lot of FX into the market.

[00:10:58]So kudos to them.

[00:10:59]>> Okay. So another thing I remember that period I remember I was when we're doing the coverage you know of the elections, I was tracking the stock market.

[00:11:09]Uh that time we're around about 55,000 for the all share index with 5,000 points and I was seeing steady rise. You know that period the bulls you know came in full force and now we've crossed um a new high. We We're We're at new highs at this point over 200,000 points.

[00:11:29]So it's been quite the run uh so far since uh May 2023.

[00:11:36]I I I I don't know if you expected this >> Never.

[00:11:39]>> amount of bullishness on the stock market.

[00:11:42]>> Never. Never. Never. Nobody envisages Nobody because no administration have come in from the era of um President Olusegun Obasanjo to Shehu Musa Yar'Adua to Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and to Muhammadu Buhari In sure, Muhammadu Buhari 8 years was the worst year of the stock exchange. If you calculate that 8 years of Muhammadu Buhari, the only stock exchange only gain If you go and look at the only perform better 2 years out of 8 years.

[00:12:15]But when you look at what the president has done, I keep saying it if there's any area, is there any policy that hit the ground running, it was what the policy that drive the stock market. The stock market is the only economic barometer that you see had benefited more on the economic reform of President Tinubu. That's why people say the reform is more for the rich than for the poor.

[00:12:43]So, it's more for the rich because the man of the on the street not really getting >> not making money from this >> even have the money to >> bull run.

[00:12:51]>> No, they don't even have it because they are busy thinking to survive. But if you look at the bullish run of the market, it nobody saw it coming. And what drove that bullish run was the two things.

[00:13:03]Liberalization of the effects market and removal of subsidy.

[00:13:07]Basically, that what drove the Then came the reform, the banking sector recapitalization and others. It has been one of the Nobody Nobody can tell me they saw it coming. Winners will agree that the policy was going to be good. We never saw it coming. And lastly, guess what? This is not driven by new listing.

[00:13:24]It's driven by capital appreciation of existing stocks. It was not like oh the auction there was driven because you have new listing. So it's not so by the time you have the Dangote listing before the end of the year and by the time we are talking about when he's going next year, you may see the auction there is triple or quadruple.

[00:13:43]So I think for the stock market the brokers, so that's the brightest spot.

[00:13:47]That's the brightest spot. Everybody will be will be excited but even if there were a dark side of it that you remember the capital gain tax >> Right.

[00:13:55]All right, let's look at some of the ugly now.

[00:13:58]Um public debt.

[00:13:59]>> Uh >> Public debt uh he inherited 87 trillion naira in public debt. But the current level now 159.28 trillion.

[00:14:12]>> That one to you cannot >> You racked up a lot of debt.

[00:14:14]>> debt debt has gone up. It's gone up dramatically. I mean >> [snorts] >> it's high.

[00:14:20]I mean it's take generations to pay off those debts. I'm telling you. I know they're annoying to know about some of these debts that this administration might not even pay up to 10% of those debts. So previous just like this administration is struggling to pay the debt of previous administration.

[00:14:34]>> So I guess it's the same old trend >> It's the same old trend. But what we have seen is that governments have remained governments. They have not think out of the box. They have not been innovative. Greater economy, best economy in the world, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Chinese economy, the EU, they realize that government does not have enough to meet up infrastructural development. They key into the PPP. Why is Nigerian government shy away from the PPP? Why should government be building the coastal road?

[00:15:03]If it has that economic viable to pass through seven states, why can't you give it to build and operate? Why should government even put money in Lagos-Ibadan expressway? It's the one of the most busiest highway in Nigeria. Why didn't you give it to private sector to build and operate and earn revenue and you just concentrate on social investment, health care, education?

[00:15:23]I'm not impressed when it comes to debt services. I think it's the worst, but again, when you look at where he came in debt services to budget was about 90%.

[00:15:33]We are seeing it come down to 60%. But it's still huge because now it's coming down to 60% because they are not servicing their own debt yet.

[00:15:40]So when the new administration coming by the time they start serving their own debt, then the debt services to budget will go high. So for me, that is one area that the APC government now APC government I'm not saying about PDP government or what. I'm talking about the APC government from the advent of Buhari till now has taken Nigeria deep into more debts than we've ever thought we would. Right.

[00:16:06]All right. Um a sports that's supposed to also be bright uh GDP growth.

[00:16:12]>> Yeah.

[00:16:13]>> The growth trend is supposed to be bright, but if you look at it, if you zoom out >> [laughter] >> you know, our latest 3.85% but normally 3% was considered low.

[00:16:25]But we're celebrating.

[00:16:27]>> We used to do 7% before.

[00:16:29]>> Exactly. So it's a it's a it's a it's a ugly >> You know, sometimes the story is like the story of the children of Israel.

[00:16:36]When the old men saw the temple, they were crying and the young men were rejoicing. So it's sort of the same thing that we are seeing here. A lot of people are happy because why are they happy? Because at a point we're doing 1.something.

[00:16:50]Coming to 3.something was a huge achievement. We lost >> Which was supposed to be your previous low.

[00:16:55]>> low but you're now now becoming high.

[00:16:57]Yeah. I think the GDP growth we have to also say that some of those things were beyond them in terms of global economic trend that affected the economy. But by and large, we've not seen the kind of GDP growth that we've ever seen before. And like I said, when you talk about GDP growth in Nigeria, you're talking about Nigeria's output to the world. And if you look at our output, it's always in the oil and gas sector. And if you look at that sector struggling to meet up in terms of OPEC quota even. You shouldn't be surprised at it. So, that's why a call for celebration. But you look at that when you look at our our GDP growth, you realize that the positive in year, and that's why it's low, is largely driven by non-oil sector.

[00:17:38]Non-oil sector is now doing sometimes up to 80 to 90% of our GDP export GDP growth today adding more to the GDP growth than the oil and gas sector. But when you look at the effects driven in by the non-oil sector, they even they seven or three percent that are coming from the oil sector is above it. So, that is a major challenge. You could see that they are trying to expand the economy to make the economy I mean not mono- mono- mono- tonous economy that depends on one area, but it need capital input from your main source to be be able to develop other source.

[00:18:12]And that main source is struggling is struggling because of oil theft.

[00:18:16]>> Right. Okay, so I guess that's it. And obviously there's more. You know, we we we're still looking for multi-dimensional poverty data because the last time we had that 133 million Nigerians were multi- multi-dimensionally poor. Uh we don't have the the latest one. I'm sure at some point we should get that, but it seems like it'll be higher.

[00:18:38]>> And the one thing we need to see if you want to rate them based on where they're coming from, what they saw and where they're coming from.

[00:18:45]>> You also comment their boldness, but also you also see that there's a lot of work to do. So, if I have to rate them over 10, I'll say they'll get six over 10. But again, the remaining four that we are giving them 10 10 is is how is huge because that is the four that affect the ordinary Nigerians.

[00:19:04]And that's what is driving the hardship in the land.

[00:19:07]>> Right. Definitely, we hope the hardship ends soon. Soon enough. All right, let's pivot now. This is the last trading day of this week, of this month.

[00:19:19]>> Yeah.

[00:19:20]>> And so far for May, we're up about 3.3%.

[00:19:24]But we're coming from an April that had a 20% rise for the All-Share Index.

[00:19:30]I guess they saw the May and went away.

[00:19:33]>> [laughter] >> I think what we saw in May what we saw was you remember results were coming in.

[00:19:40]We had a lot of expectation.

[00:19:43]And that expectation was not met. So we saw in the month of May because the expectation was not met in some banking stock in the payment of dividend. You saw a bank like Access, like UBA. So that affected the sentiment, the negativity. Then you now saw the fixed incomes space became a little bit attractive with the yield. So a lot of investors were now exiting, especially those stock that they were thinking like traditionally a dividend paying stocks. So they were now exiting the market to go to the fixed income space. So we're not surprised what happened in the month of of May because a lot that was a lot of portfolio reshuffling after that high that we saw at the beginning and towards it. So but again, it creates opportunity for bank agents also to get into the market. And remember at that time, there's already a slowdown already because the pension fund administrators were already there. They were not acquiring more. But again, I think um like I can I like I jokingly tell people if you look at the All-Share Index, what it has been able to do this year already, if we end the year like this, the stock market has performed well because it has even gone way way above inflation and better. But there's still a lot of value in a lot of stocks in the market. There's a lot of fundamental of the market is still very very strong.

[00:20:58]Even those stocks that a lot of people were exiting because they didn't pay the dividend. If you look at their their fundamentals, if you look at their their their their their their balance sheet, realize that they is not poor. It was a regulatory induced policy that you don't you >> So, technically it's not like I didn't want to pay over >> No, no, no, no, our hands were tied. Our hands were tied because the regulators felt that we need to tighten.

[00:21:25]We need to make sure that we don't have the bosses, especially when you have those capital that you have raised. So, I think that what really happened because if you look at their earning per shares, it was still comfortable for them to pay dividends. If you look at their holding companies, it was still a bank like assets. They have that power to be able to pay even if it is one naira or two naira. If you look at even UBA, they still have they they they their earning per share was still strong. But the but the CBN was looking at other variable in terms of what is your profit. Profit after tax, what largely driven drove your profit after tax? Was it driven by FX FX devaluation or was it really driven by your core businesses? I think that's what they were looking. They're looking at your capital adequacy ratio, looking at your loan book. The non-performing loan were huge. So, those are part of the things the CBN were looking at.

[00:22:12]Remember a lot of bank the CBN have put them to exit forbearance. So, all these they have to make provisions for some of these things. So, that was what really affected the bank. But those banks still have very very strong fundamental going forward. It could just be a struggle now, but I can confidently say those bank will recover, especially bank like assets and UBA. It's just a matter of time. They will definitely recover.

[00:22:34]>> We'll definitely be looking out for that. We've covered a lot of ground today. Thank you so much Samukuta Muhammad. Always a delight having these conversations with you and I guess I'll see you in the next trading month.

[00:22:45]>> Yes. Smiling like this.

[00:22:47]>> Yes.

[00:22:48]>> [laughter] >> Thank you for having me. Thank you for having me.

[00:22:50]>> Thank you. Thank you. All right. Uh we'll take a break now. When we come back, yeah, AFDB meetings are ending today, I believe. We'll discuss what's uh played out so far. Look at Africa's energy gap. That's in a moment.

[00:23:02]Just stay with us.

[00:23:04]>> [music]