TINUBU DON'T DESERVE 2ND TERM — ANALYSTS BLAST TINUBU’S 3 YEARS

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]My people, Tunubu's 3 years in office is a disaster and Tunubu don't deserve to come back in Aso Rock after 2027 election. 3 years after Tunubu took over power, like Nigerians are asking like serious question about the direction of this country because we don't know where Tunubu they take us they go. From insecurity to hardship, is it the rising cost of the living? Nigerians believe that Nigeria is not getting better under this Tunubu's government, rather is getting worse. Tunubu don't have political will to tackle the insecurity because according to him, he doesn't want to step on many people's toes because he is afraid of his life. They might even bite him. So, if a president is afraid to confront insecurity, then who will protect Nigerians? The truth is that Tunubu do not have any plan for Nigerians and Tunubu is not ready to tackle insecurity. That's why it baffles me like, why is Tunubu trying to come back after 2027 election? To what end?

[00:01:02]So, in this insightful video, political analysts take like a deep look at Tunubu's 3 years in office, his handling of insecurity, the economy and why many Nigerians are already saying that Tunubu don't deserve second time. Like Tunubu is not supposed to return to Aso Rock after 2027 election. Take a listen.

[00:01:24]Please do well to subscribe if you haven't, share the video, give it a like and leave your thoughts in the comment section.

[00:01:30]>> As he marks 3 years in office, President Tunubu says the fundamentals are improving. The exchange rate has stabilized, foreign reserves have strengthened, the stock market is booming and rating agencies like S&P, Fitch and Moody's have upgraded Nigeria's outlook. But many Nigerians say life has never been harder. So, which reality should matter more politically? The macroeconomic numbers or the lived experience of millions of ordinary Nigerians?

[00:02:04]>> My feeling has always been that great narratives about achievements that do not translate into improved conditions of living remain what they are.

[00:02:19]Narratives that do not mean much to the people of the country.

[00:02:25]If in a four-year tenure after 3 years you are saying the indicators are positive even if lived reality is one of misery and suffering then you have lost the argument.

[00:02:42]I don't find it convincing at this stage having gone through three quarters of the tenure to make the case that foreign observers some foreign observers are telling you you are doing well.

[00:03:00]My sense of democracy is that it's your citizens who tell you whether their lives are improving.

[00:03:09]And any ability to listen to what Nigerians are saying would be very clear in its verdict that the life they experience for the majority of them is one of misery and suffering. But it's not only that they live a life of misery and suffering but they see the other side the tiny minority in power live a life of opulence a self-aggrandizement and in attitude to accumulation that's completely self-serving. That for me cannot be a positive sign.

[00:03:54]>> Well, thank you for that opening salvo.

[00:03:55]Let me come to you, Professor Barougy.

[00:03:58]Really nice to have you here. Um has this administration genuinely laid the foundation for long-term recovery or are Nigerians simply being asked to endure pain today on the promise of prosperity tomorrow?

[00:04:13]>> Well, you know, before now, I wrote several articles and in fact anticipated the rhetoric that the government is using right now to justify its economic policies.

[00:04:26]Exactly a week before Tinubu took over, I wrote a column where I prognosticated that the policies he promised to implement upon election would inflict enormous existential torment on our people.

[00:04:41]And I said we're going to be confronted with rhetoric of uh growth.

[00:04:48]And I recall playing on the word my word play that if the economy grows but the people groan where is the logic? Where is the profit in that? I even used a biblical expression, what does it profit a nation to have an economy that grows but then the people groan?

[00:05:07]And that's precisely what is happening here.

[00:05:09]And I did not have any foresight.

[00:05:12]I did not have any oracular powers to predict what was going to happen.

[00:05:17]I merely depended on what happened during IBB's regime. That was the time I came of age.

[00:05:23]I a lot of the promises that um the honchos of the Buhari of the IBB administration made about to justify the SAP program which was roundly condemned >> adjustment >> structural adjustment program is exactly the rhetoric that the Tinubu administration is using. This idea that you should endure temporary pain for a deferred permanent gain.

[00:05:47]It never happened.

[00:05:48]>> The world's noisiest Hey, for a deferred permanent gain.

[00:05:58]It never happened.

[00:05:59]But what happened was that some of our best brains brains were sent out of the country and Professor Jibo here has, you know, written a lot of articles about how our identities, popular identities were composed, recomposed, reconfigured and our national identity servant architecture was disrupted almost irrevocably because of these policies.

[00:06:22]So, what we are what I'm seeing right now is a is déjà vu for me. These are things that I had experienced and of course I have studied and related with a lot of people in South America and exactly the things that Tinubu is implementing, that he calls economic reforms, are the things that were implemented in South America and people are up way poorer for it. I have friends in Argentina and they are going That's probably the only country in the world that I know of that's going through a worse economic crisis than we are and they're implementing the exact same policies. So, it's very obvious where this is going to head and the assurances they are giving, uh there's nowhere in on the surface of this earth that I have studied where economic policies such as the ones Tinubu is implementing lead to any kind of measurable improvement in the lives of the people.

[00:07:09]>> Okay, well, thanks for that. Let me come to you, Professor K. K. Chuku. Thank you very much indeed for your patience and for joining us from our studios in Lagos where normally we usually have you here in Abuja. So, it's a bit of a, you know, a different way of sort of talking with you on the line there from Lagos, but at least you're with us and we're grateful for that. I wonder what your thoughts are on this third sort of anniversary of the Tinubu administration because, I mean, let's face it, um it the the Nigerian economy, uh, his supporters would say was begging for reforms. It doesn't matter who the president was, reforms would have had to be, um, made or put in place. I mean, the president points to infrastructure spending, agricultural interventions, and the student loan scheme through the Nigerian education loan fund as evidence that reforms are beginning to touch lives. I mean, are these transformative policies in your assessment, or are they still too limited to offset the scale of economic hardship?

[00:08:21]>> Well, I will say that, uh, um, the NELFUND is a very good idea. It's working. People can, um, point to it and identify beneficiaries.

[00:08:31]But, beyond that, I will stick to the truth.

[00:08:35]And that truth is that, I will take the exact opposite position of the president.

[00:08:40]He was quoted to have said that all the fundamentals are now in place.

[00:08:44]I will say that the fundamentals have never been more skewed.

[00:08:48]And I'll tell you why.

[00:08:49]>> [snorts] >> The fundamentals include security.

[00:08:53]Are we more secure today than we were in 2023? The answer is no, with all due respect to those who differ.

[00:09:00]Is inflation worse? Yes. Is the value of the naira gone through the heavens and is heading to hell? The answer is yes.

[00:09:08]And of course, there's a reference to Southern polls and the Fitch ratings. These are international organizations that have, you know, have been known to rate nations and the economy and performance of nations.

[00:09:19]But, without prejudice to the reputation of these two organizations, I have very little respect for them, and I will also tell you why.

[00:09:27]Go and check the companies that Southern polls and Fitch ratings, in particular, rated very highly before, I think, the 1989, uh, 70, 89 meltdown.

[00:09:37]Nobody, these two organizations did not see it coming at all.

[00:09:42]I recall that I think when Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was still here, there was a time the rating changed within 3 weeks after a conversation.

[00:09:49]Now, you can have all the ratings you want in this world. The simple question to ask, and that applies to every one of us here and whoever is watching, your cousins in the village, are they faring but better?

[00:10:01]The president, all the ministers, all the heads of MDAs in the country are from villages. Nobody is from a town.

[00:10:08]How are the people faring?

[00:10:11]How much are they spending now? What's their income looking like? What are they spending on transport? Is it commensurate with their income? Those are the questions to ask. So, self-adulation becomes almost offensive when it's running clearly counterfactually to everything you're seeing around you.

[00:10:28]Fitch ratings, are they member are they Nigerian citizens? Are they reviews to take seriously? Why is it that fluctuations in petrol will reflect here, and we pay more all the time, and those who are paying the same income.

[00:10:39]So, but these facts are the realities.

[00:10:42]You can't separate it from the fact that the government has good intentions, had good intentions, couldn't have put these things in place in order to make Nigerians suffer. But, the truth is Nigerians are suffering.

[00:10:53]To now announce your intention without looking at impact on citizen welfare is a different matter. The whole point of the expenditure is honest conversation to begin with. And I personally have an issue with many of those who com- who communicate to government.

[00:11:07]The What's going on? The music is taking over my audio.

[00:11:12]>> There's certainly no music here. We can hear you loud and clear. But, let me let me give them a little um time to fiddle with your comms there.

[00:11:21]>> affected by what is going on.

[00:11:23]>> Are Are you able to hear me still?

[00:11:25]>> of interference on my audio.

[00:11:26]>> Okay. Well, let me let them sort it out in in Lagos there. Um whilst we continue in the studio here and we'll return to you imminently, Professor Ikejiku. Thank you for your comments there. Let me turn to you, Professor Ibrahim.

[00:11:42]Um, a lot of comments have been made so far, but I mean, 3 years in, what would you identify, if at all, as the administration's single biggest achievement and its single biggest failure?

[00:12:01]>> Now you're asking me a tough question.

[00:12:04]Biggest achievement >> why you're a professor. [laughter] >> It's a tough question because the biggest achievement that have been pointed out is increased revenue.

[00:12:19]But, when you talk to people in the ministries, all of them say they are getting only 5% maximum 10% of their budgets.

[00:12:31]So, when government says its fiscal policies have now raised the levels of revenue massively, and you said, "Oh, that's excellent."

[00:12:42]So, that means government ministries, departments, and agencies will have more money to produce public goods. And as many ministers have confessed in public, the reality is they are getting less than 10% of their capital budgets, which means the increased revenue has no basis in reality. And that, in my assessment, is what this government says is its biggest achievement.

[00:13:13]In terms of the general performance, I feel strongly that the level of insecurity that has been rising since the president came into power has been the biggest problem for the people of this country.

[00:13:30]The fact that uh banditry is increasing, kidnapping for ransom is increasing, uh the killing of peasants on their farms is increasing, movement along our roads remains a very risky affair.

[00:13:47]All this point to the fact that this basic issue that every state is supposed to guarantee, the security of lives and properties of citizens, is not at all guaranteed in this country.

[00:14:02]It is really problematic that at the policy front, what we hear government say since his first year in office, President Tinubu has been talking of we'll have state police and that will solve the security of the country.

[00:14:21]Three years later, he's saying what he said in the first year. We will have state police. So, when are you going to have state police when you have done two-thirds of your tenure already and you haven't I mean three-quarters of your tenure and you haven't done what you said you will do.

[00:14:38]I'm not saying state police is the answer, but it's just to point at this terrible confusion at the level of policy of making claims that are not born out in reality, >> Right.

[00:14:51]>> making promises that are not fulfilled.

[00:14:53]And all this is a real problem for a government that wants to be taken seriously by citizens.

[00:14:59]>> Well, thanks for that assessment. I'm going to return to the issue of um insecurity cuz obviously that's a big problem in this country. I'm going to return to that in a moment. But, Professor Perogi, the government uh just coming off the back of what Professor Ibrahim was saying there about increased revenue, the governor the government argues that governors now have far more money because of subsidy removal and increased federation allocations.

[00:15:28]But, I mean people are still asking where is the impact? Is this now becoming a crisis of governance at both federal and state level?

[00:15:37]>> Yeah, you know, that is one of the most bizarre uh justifications for removing fuel subsidies that I've ever encountered.

[00:15:47]And I have pointed out in several columns.

[00:15:51]For instance, Business Day sometime ago, I don't recall what day it was that they published this, said that governors have way more money than they need.

[00:16:01]And what did they do with the money?

[00:16:03]They convert the money into dollars and put pressure on the dollars. That was the time when the uh naira was sliding against the dollar precipitously.

[00:16:13]But, these increased revenues that the governors merely made them bigger, more imperious rulers of their states.

[00:16:22]It has not translated into uh substantive development. It hasn't led to roads being built. It has not led to infrastructural renewal in the states. It hasn't led to more schools being built. It hasn't led to increase in the salaries of workers.

[00:16:37]>> Well, in fairness to them, and I don't mean to interrupt you, they they fill the airwaves every day with new roads being commissioned and you know, hospitals and buildings and things, schools, um being built. I mean, I don't know how widespread those things are vis-à-vis the population of their um of their states, but certainly we do see, you know, even if it's just the optics, we we do see some things taking place that suggest some kind of infrastructure development.

[00:17:06]>> I take that. However, even before the increase in revenues that they are celebrating, that has always happened.

[00:17:12]All the years that I have lived in Nigeria, state governors have always done some symbolic infrastructural programs. So, but for me to be convinced that the removal of fuel subsidies has led to more money in the hands of governors and therefore more development, I want to see a a dramatically exponential increase in infrastructure development, but I don't see that. And although I don't live in Nigeria, I interact with Nigerians on a daily basis and have asked questions and I don't see any increase in the magnitude of expenditures.

[00:17:47]In fact, I have been told that there are states that are still not paying the minimum wage and that's a scandal.

[00:17:53]If the government brags about increasing the revenues of governors and there are still states in the federation that do not pay the minimum wage, that's a scandal of monumental proportion that should inspire people to go out in the streets and protest.

[00:18:09]>> Well, that's a good point certainly in in the observations that you have made, but um let me return to you in Lagos, Professor Kingsley Chukwu. I hope your comms are now sort of back to um normal. Um let's turn to the nettlesome issue of insecurity that Professor Ibrahim was speaking quite fervently about a hot second ago. The administration insists progress is being made. In fact, I was watching the um Minister of Defense this morning on the morning show on Arise News and he was saying that about 70% had been achieved in terms of tackling the problem of insecurity, but from Benue to Zamfara to parts of the northeast, many communities, let's face it, still feel abandoned. Has the government lost the narrative battle on security or are you impressed with what is going on?

[00:19:06]>> For quite frankly, I don't think the government has any narrative at all.

[00:19:11]Um a government this government this is a third year we ask ourselves how much of the budget for 2024 was expended released how much for 25 and this is 26 we are halfway through the year and you're telling us you've dealt with 70% of the problem whereas the army has only got 7% of his allocations. I think the navy or is it air force has got 13% for maintenance we are just kidding ourselves.

[00:19:41]Coming to speak is one thing the reality on the table is another.

[00:19:45]Just take the for the last week take all the media and check the reported cases of kidnapping for one week.

[00:19:52]Kidnapping insurgency attacks all over the federation the dismiss that if you take that record for this week alone and that ended and you compare it with the record for two years about 2012 the one of that last one week beats it hands down.

[00:20:10]So if it's the least of that we have security it must be a kind of a new type of security the improvement that's number one. Number two state police I'm glad it was mentioned where is it?

[00:20:22]Number three if we are seeing a tradition of you know promises remember that following the probably precipitated announcement of withdrawal of fuel subsidy we were told CNG will come on stream. It is still going to come on stream because the stream you was waiting for rain to fall so that there will be drought for the boat. Those are the issues.

[00:20:41]And that gives me even greater concern at the level of official public communication. Anybody in government listening to this will probably get angry. You see we're doing a lot they're not appreciating it you have no position.

[00:20:53]The observer has a right to a point of view and the Nigerians you're talking about you can't tell me whether my roof is leaking I would know when I come out all soaked.

[00:21:03]This issue of security where will you take it from? Just read the papers every day. Just read their effrontery of attacking military installations. In one instance, with drone facilities.

[00:21:13]What does it take to produce a soldier?

[00:21:15]When you're training soldiers, you're using arms and ammunition. They are not things you replace. If you fire a bullet, you don't take it back. There has to be continuous procurement. It's not happening. They don't have the resources for hardware and even software. But beyond all of that, you look at the overall scenario. How many soldiers and officers are we producing in a year? How many are we losing? Is this affordable? In fact, I was on a program on a program earlier in the day and the spokesperson for Zulum spoke of oh, how they've resettled some communities. The IDPs are disappearing, which is a good thing. That in some states, there are only a few places where when you're going now, you need military escort. Military escort.

[00:21:52]Gentlemen, we're wasting our soldiers.

[00:21:54]This is not their job. In places, take much of the northeast and local government chairmen don't live in those places.

[00:22:01]I get 200 plus million every month and it it passes over because I'm not How would there be a local economy? How could would there be community life? So, when you say more money is are going to the states, we want to see that x number of people now have a means of livelihood. Their security. That's the whole point of money. Human interest communication. That because of this increase in resources, right now, this is what is happening. This place is revived. This place former farming community is now farming and is bringing out this quantity of rice or sugarcane or or or wheat, whatever. It is not happening. So, a conversation with all without prejudice to our sensibilities, this is what I call incestuous communication.

[00:22:40]Where the speaker is his own audience.

[00:22:42]Oh, you know, we and they will not have their heads and shake each other. As I said earlier, step out of your official car and the siren. Go to your own village. Look at your extended family.

[00:22:52]Look at the wider community. Watch the people trembling in the hope you'll drop a dime for them to fight over. Watch traditional rulers given given a given given what do call it? Titles to non-rooks, church leaders making them knights. That's the kind of society and you look at even what's happening in the government itself. Look at the primaries and not just about APC, all of them. Do you see internal party democracy?

[00:23:14]>> Come to that.

[00:23:16]>> be delusional on a matter which facts are staring me in the >> Abubakar emerging as the ADC candidate and Peter Obi in the process of being ratified by the NDC, are we essentially heading towards a replay of the 2023 three-way contest? Only this time with even higher stakes.

[00:23:36]>> Yes, indeed. It is very clear that there is going to be a similar election.

[00:23:43]But the dynamics have shifted considerably and the outcomes may not be as clear as they were in 2023.

[00:23:55]The first issue was that uh Tinubu was coming in on the basis of a broad alliance that enabled him to carry significant uh votes from the north on the basis of what came to be known as a Muslim Muslim ticket.

[00:24:14]That uh Muslim Muslim Muslim Muslim ticket has turned out to be quite a problem for him because people don't see what that means anymore.

[00:24:26]And increasingly the reality the president is facing is that support he enjoyed at 2023 has reduced considerably due directly to his policies.

[00:24:44]The president, of course, has responded by cajoling, bribing, begging, forcing governors to join his party and now has 31 of the 36 governors on his side.

[00:24:59]The question is there's an assumption to use Nigerian language that these governors will be able to deliver their states.

[00:25:09]What analysis at the state level is showing however is that most of these governors will not be able to deliver their estates because there are very strong opposition to the president's policies and practices within those states. And what's happening is a strong divide between the governors that are aligning with him and their own citizens.

[00:25:37]Atiku is of course coming in for his umpteenth attempt. I don't think any Nigerian has tried so many times to be president as him and in a sense this is the last chance.

[00:25:50]The question for him is whether he'll be able to generate slightly more support than he did the last time.

[00:25:59]Would he benefit from the fact that the president is facing challenges at this time?

[00:26:09]>> Well, let me pick up on the back of what you said there Professor Ibrahim and come to you Professor Pereji. Atiku says this will likely be his final presidential run. Does that make him more dangerous politically because he has nothing left to lose or more vulnerable because Nigerians may see him as yesterday's candidate?

[00:26:31]>> Well, um I would say it it would slightly make him more desperate because he's going to be 80 if he's not already 80 and by 2031 when the next election cycle starts he's unlikely to be strong enough to stand for election. So I sense that he's going to give his all to this.

[00:26:50]Unfortunately this is happening at a time of recognizably diminished uh Southern support.

[00:26:59]Uh you have to give it to Atiku that uh historically, he's been one of the Northern candidates with the most Southern support. In 2019, for instance, he was massively voted by the South.

[00:27:13]Uh he also seems to enjoy the confidence of Northern Christians in more ways than his contemporaries in the Muslim North do.

[00:27:23]However, his uh biggest Achilles heel is going to be the the prevailing sentiment in the South that he hasn't sufficiently sacrificed or requited the love that Southerners have given him over the years.

[00:27:37]Uh for a lot of Southerners that I have interacted with, they think this is the moment where he should have stayed back from contest and endorsed a popular Southern candidate as a reward or as a compensation for all the support he has been given. So, there's some there's a sense of boiling rage that I can sense among Southerners, and I told someone uh recently that I'll be shocked if he gets more than 15% of Southern votes, which would mean that uh he's unlikely to get the spread that is constitutionally required of candidates before they win an election. It appears for now that he's going to dominate the Northern sphere because there's no Northerner who is running for president right now.

[00:28:25]And given what I have called the emotional cartography of Nigeria, the emotional maps, uh I would say that the the he's going to be the center of emotional affiliation for a lot of Northern voters who first uh angry with what seems like the exclusion of the North in the Tinubu administration. I call that the baffling exclusion strategy of uh Tinubu and there's there's a sense there's a growing sense that um he's reading himself he's purging himself of even the last vestiges of northern influence in his government. Uh if Atiku ex partly instrumentalizes and weaponizes did he is likely going to get a lot of northern voters. But that would not be sufficient to make him president if the countervailing sentiment in the south that he is the biggest stumbling block to let me be very specific an Igbo presidency because he has gotten a lot of his support from the Igbo part of southern Nigeria in more ways than any uh northern candidate since 1999. So that's the problem that I foresee him encountering in this election which would be an advantage to Bola Tinubu.

[00:29:38]Unfortunately, when elections take place people do not always be vote on the basis of what I have like what I like to call objective factors borrowing on Marxist phraseology.

[00:29:48]>> Right.

[00:29:49]>> But there are also subjective factors that cause people to vote against their interest. There's a famous book What's What's the Matter with Kansas by a political scientist in the United States who talked about how red states vote against candidates that have programs that are designed to solve their problems. They would rather vote for someone who identifies with their values, with their politics, with their emotions. And so that might be a factor in this election. Of course, in addition to the fact that people are so poor now that they are vulnerable to financial manipulation.

[00:30:22]>> Well, that's a very interesting analysis. And let me come to you, Professor Okechukwu in Lagos. Thank you for staying with us. And Peter Obi, we've talked about Atiku, we've talked about um the president Tinubu, but Peter Obi still commands intense support among sort of young urban voters, but critics say enthusiasm on social media must now translate into deeper national structures. Has Obi strengthened politically since 2023 or plateaued?

[00:31:00]>> [laughter] >> Well, let's look at the variables on the table. 2023 was driven by a lot of enthusiasm.

[00:31:08]And if you look around, you will discover that um in substantive terms, a lot of people believe he won that election.

[00:31:17]But, you know, that you went to the farm and cultivated 300 hectares of yam, and then because you didn't have trucks and security, somebody else harvested the yam. You can keep talking about the yams that grew in your farm, but another person's barn is full. That's my is the analogy I see between him and the APC.

[00:31:36]Back then, you may recall that many of the party those who had to represent the parties were just left. In fact, the the the Labour Party had hoped to get the presidency by what I consider political burglary.

[00:31:49]Without making the appropriate investments at that lower level, you thought the enthusiasm would deliver everything, and of course, he couldn't.

[00:31:56]And the others were more ruthless, more visibly political. In post-COVID, by speaking of masquerade festival in Lagos, allowed protocol to happen.

[00:32:06]Now, can that happen again? To a large extent, yes. I think that the NDC and PTP should be very careful on three grounds.

[00:32:14]Number one, the Southeast governors, maybe except for Alex Otti, will make sure that they give 25% to Atiku.

[00:32:24]That and what he needs there 25%, not all the votes. Number two, go and check the figures. You'll find that the Southeast is not one of those with the kind of voting population that will frighten anybody.

[00:32:35]Number three, the NDC I'm impressed in the strategic move.

[00:32:40]Nobody saw it coming, but let's pay attention to details.

[00:32:43]Much of what is coming out from NDC, there's a certain casualness about it that makes me uncomfortable.

[00:32:49]If you look at [clears throat] many of the pictures, you see the leader of the party. In fact, the last one that was in the paper a few days ago and has been repeatedly used. [clears throat] He was sitting down casually dressed, barefooted. Peter was addressing the That sort of thing is not the kind of material you use for visibility. But coming around to the substantive question of the odds against the the NDC. I'll look at the APC. Charles, you'll recall in the past, probably within the last 6 weeks or two, three months, I'd mentioned the fact that the number of persons the company into the APC will eventually become its own undoing.

[00:33:23]A man is the leader of the party in a PDP state.

[00:33:27]Then the governor with whom he had been fighting for heaven knows how long suddenly becomes defects and becomes the leader, displacing him. He's angry.

[00:33:36]Now, many of those who were loyal, deceived, or frightened, or intimidated into the campaign, they cannot get their ticket. Look at your power minister.

[00:33:43]Look at Governor So. Now, a boiling rage will lead You used the word implosion.

[00:33:48]I will look at the expression antipathy activities whereby I will remain a member of the APC, but I work for somebody from another party to take the governorship. We're all familiar with that in Anambra state.

[00:33:59]Where there are really no parties, the question of who are we going to vote for at any time. The APC has to have somebody like me speaking the way he's doing.

[00:34:07]To have somebody like Omar Gega now relocating completely among so many others. Look at What's his name now from Delta state? Um the the one that got four votes, I think.

[00:34:20]I can't remember his name. He's a very popular senator. They place him on the table, gave him 24 strokes of the cane, and told him not to cry. So, you go inside the house. All of those are big boys who will not take it lightly. But, and here's the big butt.

[00:34:35]A Tinubu as president who could become president the way he did, who could dress up vocalizers and present them as bishops of the Christian Association of Nigeria, >> [snorts] >> who could win Lagos the way he did and Port Harcourt, and he's now in power, he has uh the instruments of coercion, and you think that social media dancing in the street and talking about your goodness will give you the presidency. This is a fight that will be he's last fight. He will tell himself, "Even if it's the last fight of my life, I will not lose this presidency." Now, that's the mindset that those hoping to displace him should be working with. Because already there's a further crisis in the opposition with Atiku coming out. Even if Atiku wins only one vote, that's one vote that would not have gone to that would have gone to another person. Then the the assumption prevailing actually, particularly in Atiku's camp, that he has the north needs a reevaluation.

[00:35:26]Has Atiku ever really had the north?

[00:35:28]Apart from the time he contested with Peter, when did Igbos get so many votes in the north?

[00:35:33]And then there I'm glad you mentioned the seating rage. How could you in a party that said it would be north and south, and then of course people have also gone further to profile those around Atiku from the southeast as political never-do-wells. They don't really have any stature. You can't see them speaking openly, but you only see Atiku.

[00:35:51]So, all of these variables put together, if the opposition spreads itself too thin, it will have a challenge.

[00:35:58]If the NDC imagines that he can continue with the casual thing we are seeing, let NDC articulate something everybody can see. Peter Obi is not a magic wand. We know what he can do as president, but that's only if he becomes president. He has not become president. Are they putting things in place to make that happen?

[00:36:15]It is commendable that the masterstroke of NDC was struck, but beyond that, Nigerians need to see a lot more. APC is doubly equipped. The only thing that can help the opposition is the bad blood that would that the the current primaries have generated in APC and also the lopsided appointments of the president which has made the north say, "No, no, no. This man is running away with everything. We'll tell our people to get rid of him." But the counter to that is that when Buhari was doing all he was doing, nobody heard from the north except from one or two people.

[00:36:45]>> Okay.

[00:36:46]>> Now, um Tinubu is being accused of doing the same thing and they were Maybe I rest there so that others will come and join us.

[00:36:53]>> Okay. Well, thank you for that. And um we're we're literally we've got a couple of minutes left before we have to go.

[00:37:00]And let me um give you what would appear to be the final word, Professor >> [snorts] >> Ibrahim. Um we heard uh Professor Perogi there saying that um it doesn't look as if Atiku has much um support or will get the kind of spread he needs in the south. Um but of course, Atiku hasn't chosen a a running mate yet and he may well do that strategically and that could make a significant difference in whatever inroads he can gain in the south. We don't know yet because we haven't seen that happen. But bearing that in mind and bearing what Professor Ibe Kachi just said, looking at the map today, Professor Ibrahim, who appears better positioned to build a truly national coalition against Tinubu in 2027? Atiku or Obi?

[00:37:52]>> My sense is that it's too early to make that uh determination.

[00:37:57]But what's clear is that the voting pattern is going to be regionalized because of the behavior of the APC president and his focus on the southwest only. He's alienated the others. That's the sentiment Atiku is trying to benefit from by saying, "Look at what the president is doing. He only He's only interested in the Euro virus. Therefore, let's focus on our own people. And of course, Peter Obi is prepared to see the extent to which the combination of the Southeast and South South would provide that support.

[00:38:42]>> Don't forget he got one person with him as well.

[00:38:44]>> Yes, I know. That means you get a significant vote from Kano. But that wouldn't be significant enough to change the big numbers. I think it's the North Central >> Briefly.

[00:38:58]>> that's going to determine the run of play because that's where people are available as it were to shift between one and the other and we have not yet seen the dynamics there to be able to make that determination.

[00:39:14]>> On that note, I want to thank you gentlemen very much indeed.

[00:39:16]>> So my people, that is it and thank you so so much for watching. If you are still watching up to this moment, I hope you guys had everything they discussed here. I would love you guys to leave your thoughts in the comment section.

[00:39:26]Please share the video and also subscribe. Turn on the post notification bell on so that anytime I upload a new video, YouTube will notify you. Yeah, I will see you guys in my next update.

[00:39:37]Goodbye for now.

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