[ENGLISH] Live trading session 21.07 – Ambrose Ebuka – Octa

[00:01:12]All right. All right. All right.

[00:01:28]Hello. Hello everybody. Good evening, good afternoon, good morning, wherever you're watching me from. Welcome to today's live trading session. I hope you you guys are having an amazing week.

[00:01:38]It's uh Tuesday, right? The week just we got into the second trading day of the week and it's good to have you guys here today. Now, before we get into this session, I just wanted to quickly mention something. So unfortunately our previous live session ended you know earlier than expected because we had some technical issues and I know that we're not able to cover everything that we wanted to in the last session. So before we go on to today's session if you have any questions from that previous session you can let me know in the comments let me know in the chat if there's anything that we didn't get to or you didn't understand anything that wasn't clear just drop your questions in the chat. I'm constantly checking the chat uh to see if you guys have questions and I'll make sure we address them before we finish today's session. All right, welcome to today's session everybody.

[00:02:34]Can you tell something about gold? All right, we'll analyze gold today. I'll take it step by step. I'll explain everything for you guys. So, if you're just joining, uh, make sure you stay to the end cuz I'll be breaking down gold, you know, from I mean, this morning I was watching gold early in the morning and I was able to also catch the spike from 4,000 all the way up to 4,78. So, really, really good move. We analyze that as well at 4,21 thereabouts to 4,78.

[00:03:06]That's about 500 pips and it's still going. But we'll look at that. Um I'll go to the charts and show you guys. You guys know how we do it, right? Let me see if you guys have any other questions from the session. U before we move on or if you're just joining and you have any questions from the last session, you can go ahead and ask. I'll just get into it as we go on.

[00:03:27]All right, guys. So before we get started, uh let me know your names in the comments, okay? Let me get to know you guys. Your name, where you're watching me from. If this is your first time participating in a live session, go ahead and let me know. I'm just going to run through the disclaimer right now while you guys do that. Any opinion, news, research, prices, analysis, or other information discussed in this webinar or linked to this presentation is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Now guys, imagine two traders, right? Both of them have the same exact chart. They're looking at the same exact currency pair, you know, the same candlestick, the same time frame, the same support and resistance levels at the same exact time. One trader buys, one trader sells.

[00:04:10]Now, here's my question.

[00:04:13]Is it possible for two traders to look at the same exact chart and come out with different conclusions? Let me know in the chat yes or no.

[00:04:24]Is it possible for two traders to analyze the same exact chart and one goes for a buy and one goes for a sale?

[00:04:29]Let me know in the comments.

[00:04:34]Minakshi welcome to the session.

[00:04:41]Uh okay let me know with the comments.

[00:04:56]Okay Javeed welcome to the session.

[00:05:01]Thank you very much for for letting me know your name because I didn't know how to pronounce what I was saying, but I think I'll go with Khan. Khan is good, so I'll call you Khan.

[00:05:16]So, I'm going to introduce myself to you guys. For those of you that don't know who I am, my name is Ambrose. I have six years of trading experience developing profitable swing and scalp strategies. I have 5% accuracy in chart analysis for gold, GJ, and GBPUSD.

[00:05:31]I also conduct regorous back testing to consistently validate and optimize trading effectiveness. All right, good to see you guys in the session. We're going to get started and you guys know how we do it. We first look at the economic calendar, you know, analyze the economic events that we had for the day.

[00:05:51]We'll also go into zone trading, right?

[00:05:54]That's my method of analysis, you know, from I mean the market moves in different zones, right? Supply to demand, demand back to supply. No matter what happens, the only two things the market does always moving from supply zone to demand zone and back to supply and just like that. Yes, there will be moments of consolidations and retracements, you know, but at the end of the day, the market is always moving from supply to demand and supply to demand. So we're going to look at and that's what we call zones zone trading.

[00:06:26]Um in zone trading there are also the premium zones the discounts but I also explain that to you guys. Then we'll look at the dollar index and its correlation with gold USD euro USD depending on what you guys um trade and I'll talk to you guys about how trading reveals you. All right. And at the end of the session, we'll have a Q&A session where you guys get to ask me questions concerning what you've learned or trading generally. All right, session is going to last for about 45 minutes.

[00:06:57]Ask questions in the YouTube live chat.

[00:06:59]I'll go ahead and answer all your questions. Now, I asked you guys a question earlier. I told you, is it possible for two traders to see different directions or different opportunities in the market? Um the answer is obviously yes because trading is not just about what you see it's about what you understand the chart is the same but the interpretation is different and that's one of the biggest differences between a beginner and an experienced trader. A lot of beginner traders would always ask where should I buy but as an experienced trader you want to ask why is the market moving in the first place? Where is it moving from? Where is it heading to?

[00:07:37]Because once you understand why price is moving, finding where to trade becomes much easier.

[00:07:46]All right. So, we're going to start with the economic calendar because it helps us understand, you know, the beginning of the story. It tells us what information entered the market, what changed, what investors are reacting to, you know, why money is flowing from one currency to another. We're not just going to focus on predicting and analyzing. I'm also going to understand the market because when you predict without understanding, you're basically gambling.

[00:08:11]Understanding is going to give you a framework for making better decisions.

[00:08:15]So after today, uh my goal is that when you open the economic calendar, you won't just see all the dates and the numbers, you know, the percentages, the impact. you also understand what these numbers are telling you about the economy, why traders around the world care about them, you know, how they influence gold indices, just a lot of what all the markets uh that we have today.

[00:08:44]So, why do you need the economic calendar?

[00:08:47]A lot of traders, mostly new traders, you know, focus just on the charts, right? They spend days and weeks learning candlestick patterns, support and resistance, trend line, supply and demand. Not to say that those are, you know, the wrong things to learn, but then when they enter what looks like the perfect trade, everything is going well and what happens? The market shoots 80 pips or even 100 pips in the opposite direction.

[00:09:14]And the answer is always simple. They didn't check the economic calendar.

[00:09:19]So, we're going to look at the economic calendar today. I'm just going to briefly um run through it, do like an introduction, explain what the events we had today mean uh so that you guys can also do this on your own by yourself.

[00:09:31]You don't always have to wait till the next live session to be able to use the economic calendar. There are economic events that will be coming out tomorrow, next week, every day, right? Every weekday. So, you should you need to be able to analyze it and do it on your own.

[00:09:48]So, we're going to start with the start with the actual, right?

[00:09:54]Oh, no. Let's start let's start from from the top.

[00:09:58]So, when you get into the economic calendar, if this is your first time using the economic calendar, you want to make sure that your time zone is set to your current location so you don't get to miss out on the event and the time of release. Right now I'm only focused on high impact events but if you're new you can add the medium and even the low impact so that you can just get an understanding of you know other economic releases even though they may not have much of an impact right the lower ones would not have much of an impact but just for you to learn and understand what it means. Then we have the impact zone which tells us how important the event is. High impact tells you it's highly important. Low impact would cause zero effect on the market, right? It doesn't move the market at all. High impact, which is where you need to pay attention because that's where you'd most likely see the biggest moves. Then the previous tells you what the number was the last time it was released.

[00:10:53]Okay. So, let's say count change. The last time it was released, it came out at 31.2.

[00:11:02]We'll still get into it, but just for example purposes. And then we have the forecast. So what is the forecast? It's what economists expect before the report came out.

[00:11:16]Now I like to always tell you guys this.

[00:11:19]A lot of beginners don't realize that the market doesn't only react to whether a number is good or bad. It reacts to whether the number is better or worse than expected.

[00:11:31]So for example, if everybody expects let's say this to come out at 5% and it comes out at 4.9 or 5% it may barely move the market because everybody expected it, right? What usually moves and creates volatility is a surprise. For example, from this boom to this, you see that this is a very serious change and this as well. I mean we didn't get any forecast but if you look at the previous this is a significant high number as compared to the previous this is a significant low number as compared to the forecast and also the previous.

[00:12:13]Let me know if you guys understand. And then we have the actual just wanted to put that one there. Okay.

[00:12:24]And then we have the actual. So the actual is basically the current number, the current figure that has just been released. This is the figure that the market reacts to.

[00:12:37]Are you guys following? So this is basically it. There's nothing else that is it's not difficult. When you come here, you see all these numbers. It looks difficult, but it's not difficult to understand. We're going to go straight into the events. I'll just explain to you guys briefly what it means. And guys clearly uh one of the fastest way you can actually understand what this means is to just click on it and you read you know the definition that octa has provided and all the way down here you clearly see that there is an influence explanation right so a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the pound over here see the same thing low reading is seen as bullish so we had bullish here significantly bullish here. By default, you already know that this is going to be good for the British pound. So, what is the ILO unemployment rate?

[00:13:37]Imagine that you have a company, right?

[00:13:40]Your business is growing, customers are increasing, sales are improving. Are you going to hire more people or would you hire less people?

[00:13:49]Let me know in the comments. You own a company, the business is growing, the customers are increasing, your sales are hits over the roof. Would you hire more people or less people?

[00:14:02]I mean, most of us will hire more people, right? Now, imagine the opposite. Businesses starts to slow down, you know, customers stop buying, your sales are failing.

[00:14:12]What's one of the first expenses many business? You've seen it a lot of times in the news.

[00:14:18]staff, right? They cut their staff, they they send some of the staffs away. You know, hiring begins to reduce, people lose their job. That's exactly what the unemployment measures, okay? It just measures the percentage of people that are actively looking for job or looking for work, but they cannot find a job.

[00:14:42]Now generally in a country I mean you guys see it with NFP a lot of times employment is one of the strongest indicators of an economy's health.

[00:14:56]It's it's a it's it chain right? People that have jobs they earn salaries. When they earn salaries they spend money. They buy food. They pay rent. They travel. They shop. They invest. You know, businesses make more money, the economy grows.

[00:15:16]Now, imagine people start to lose their jobs. The spending is going to fail.

[00:15:19]Businesses would endless and the economy is not going to grow as fast.

[00:15:24]So, unemployment is not just about jobs.

[00:15:27]It's the overall strength of the economy. Let me know in if you guys understood this explanation.

[00:15:35]Let me know if you guys understood this explanation.

[00:15:44]Let me know in the comment guys if you see this let me know in the comments.

[00:16:03]Okay. So the next one is the clament count change. Somebody's talking about everybody's talking about support and resistance.

[00:16:15][snorts] Let's see.

[00:16:21]Supply and demand, which is not useful in real trading. If you buy, it goes. If you sell, it goes up. When I go to the charts, I'll show you the key levels.

[00:16:31]Supply and demand, support and resistance. If you look at historical data, right, and you see that market respects levels and you still choose to ignore the fact that market respects levels and most of these levels are supply zones, demand zones, maybe just have a different way of trading.

[00:16:49]Claymont count.

[00:16:51]Now, what climate count measures is the change in number of people that are claiming unemployment related benefits from the government. So imagine a company lays off 500 workers. Some of those workers would apply for unemployment benefits and those applications would now become part of the uh claimment count report. So instead of measuring the unemployment rate itself, the claimment count measures how many more people or less people are asking the government for financial support.

[00:17:25]Now the forecast was at 28,300 and the actual came out at just 6,700.

[00:17:31]This is a very strong result than expected because the analysts and economists they thought that you know at least more people maybe not up to 31,000 like the last time but at least more people would need unemployment support.

[00:17:45]Instead only fewer people claim benefits. That's generally a positive signal for the UK labor market.

[00:17:54]And if the number comes out this low, it's good for the pound because it tells you that oh fewer people are losing jobs. Not a lot of people are losing jobs and gives you the idea. The next thing we have is the employment change 3 months.

[00:18:12]This report answers just one question.

[00:18:15]How many jobs they created or lost over the past 3 months? Now this is different from unemployment, right? This one focuses on the number of people that are actually working.

[00:18:29]Imagine a country that creates, let's say, 100,000 jobs.

[00:18:35]That's a sign that businesses are growing, right? Imagine the country now loses 100,000 jobs. It tells you that, I mean, businesses are struggling.

[00:18:45]the previous was 100,000 and the market came out the report came out at 147,000. So it tells you that the UK added more jobs than the last time and it's a positive development. So you see that the uh events that we had today all favored the British pound.

[00:19:10]And then the next thing that we have which is the last one on the high impact. Again, if you want to see more economic events, you can always change it here. If I click on medium impact event, you'll see that there will be more events added today. But we're just going to focus on the high impact because it brings about high volatility and also for time purpose. So you can go into technical analysis as well.

[00:19:37]the ECB, the ECB bank lending survey. So this is not like CPI or employment. This this is not like a number that you compare with a forecast, right? That's why you don't see any numbers here. It's just a survey that is conducted by the European Central Bank.

[00:20:00]Now, the European Central Banks would ask commercial banks, "Are you approving more loans? Are businesses borrowing more money? Um, customers finding it hard to borrow money?"

[00:20:17]All these responses from these commercial banks would help the European Central Bank understand how easily money is flowing through the economy.

[00:20:26]Now imagine every bank just stopped approving loans.

[00:20:33]Businesses cannot expand. Families obviously that would need um to apply for mortgage. They can't buy homes.

[00:20:40]People cannot finance their cars.

[00:20:42]Investments will slow. You know just the economy is going to become weak.

[00:20:48]That's what happens. But if banks are willing to lend, they're willing to, you know, lend money. And that's why it's called the lending survey, businesses would expand, consumers will spend more, construction would increase, the economy is going to be growing. And that's why lending matters. And it's important because credit is one of the engines of modern economies.

[00:21:11]And this is important for the European Central Bank because the ECB sets rates.

[00:21:16]But after they change the rates, they want to know whether banks are actually lending money.

[00:21:21]If the commercial banks are cautious with lower interest rates, the economy may still struggle.

[00:21:29]So with the lending survey, the European Central Bank understands if the monetary policy is reaching the businesses and the households as well.

[00:21:39]But when you understand this economic event, the question now becomes how does this affect the domestic currency which is the euro.

[00:21:51]After this survey, if they find out that banks are lending more, businesses are borrowing more, consumers are confident, the euro may receive support because it tells you the economy or the economic activity is healthy and it's going to affect Euro USD, Euro GBP, Euro CHF, and Euro JPY and some other European stock indices and European government bonds as well.

[00:22:19]So just to wrap up the analysis on the economic events for today before we go to technicals, you can see that most of the reports suggest that UK labor market is strong, resilient.

[00:22:35]This could be bullish for the pound.

[00:22:36]We're going to go to the charts and check that as well.

[00:22:40]And yeah, let me see. Let me know if you guys have questions concerning the economic calendar before we switch. All right, let me know in the comments if you have questions concerning the economic calendar. Uh, let me know in the comments before we switch.

[00:23:31]All right.

[00:23:34]Going to go to the charts.

[00:23:57]Okay, so we're done with the economic calendar. Um, we're going to look at the charts and see if it's telling the same story just like the fundamentals.

[00:24:12]We're going to start with the dollar index. You can see that uh GBP is obviously gain some strength to push all the way back up, but overall trend is still bearish. We just had this um recovery here.

[00:24:32]So can see news came out around 7 and then we just had small recoveries on GBP but overall trend is still bearish. We're going to start with the dollar index before we get to GDPUSD.

[00:24:52]The economic calendar tells you this is why the money is moving. The technical analysis or the technical charts will tell you this is where the money is moving. And it's good to just combine uh both fundamentals and technicals because then trading begins to make a lot of sense.

[00:25:11]Now there are a lot of indications and zones on my chart. You can see the structure break change of character equal loop all these things. I'm going to explain what they mean for you guys so you can have an idea and an understanding of I'm going to start with this first an understanding of you know what the market is doing so that when I explain further you guys get to understand what they mean right we're going to start with the start with the break of structure right so whenever you see boss on my chart just like you're seeing here boss simply means break of structure Right? It's just like you're climbing a staircase and you're coming down or you're going up. Every step that you make takes you higher. And as long as you continue to make higher steps, you keep going up, right? That's the same thing here. This case keeps making lower steps, breaking structure to the downside, keeps going down. If buyers are continuing to break previous highs or sellers are continuing to break previous lows like you have here, the trend continues.

[00:26:29]So the POS doesn't tell you that the trend has changed. It tells you or it's confirming that the trend has continued.

[00:26:36]And I already have this um integrated in my pine script. So it automatically just maps it down. I don't need to come and do anything. and it just whenever it happens, it just maps it out for me. I'm able to see the [clears throat] different zones and all that. The next one is going to be the change of character, which is also indicated by the bullish change of character or bearish change of character.

[00:27:02]Now, let's start with the bullish. So, the bullish of character basically tells you that the sellers are beginning to lose control. So in a downtrend like this, right, you see the market coming all the way down and the market pushes all the way up, breaks the previous lower high, it becomes a bullish change of character.

[00:27:28]It doesn't tell you that a new trend has begun.

[00:27:32]Right? Just a quick tip for those of you that want to start trading with this concept. A change of character doesn't say oh the trade the trend has changed from bearish to bullish. It's just an early warning that look this market can be changing direction.

[00:27:52]And if you want to trade like a professional, you have to pay attention to this uh change of character zones both on the bearish side just like as you can see here the early warning and then boom market still pushed all the way down. Right? You have to pay attention to it because it basically tells you where you can where you should start monitoring carefully.

[00:28:12]What else do we have on the chart?

[00:28:17]Okay, pretty um hidden. It's right here, but it's a bearish order block. I'm going to go to the lower time frame so you guys can see most of these zones carefully.

[00:28:32]So here we have a bullish order block.

[00:28:37]If you don't know what an order block is, I'll just give you guys brief explanation as well before I start analyzing. The chart is pretty much analyzed already. I'll just tell you guys what I think about the gold market and where it's possibly headed.

[00:28:49]Um, you can always take a screenshot of what you're seeing on your screen so you can apply to your own charts as well.

[00:28:55]Now imagine a bank, right, or a financial institution.

[00:29:00]They want to buy billions of dollars worth of gold.

[00:29:08]They can't sell everything once in a second, right? There's not so much liquidity. So they build positions over time.

[00:29:20]Those areas are where institutions enter aggressively because it's where the markets now created a more like a turning point and it's probably where the market also returns to because most of these institutions and um big banks they tend to have unfinished business at this order blocks and that's why you see a lot of traders watch other block because there are areas where significant buying or selling has previously occurred. So, we have that on the bearish and we have that on the bullish uh side as well.

[00:29:56]What else do we have on the charts?

[00:29:58]Let's see. I've talked about the bearish end of character. Okay, golden pocket.

[00:30:03]So, for those of you that know the Fibonacci, right, Fibonacci indicator, it's right here, guys. You can always on your own, you know, go ahead and um do research on trading, learn new things. uh just so that you can improve on your knowledge.

[00:30:20]Right? So the golden pockets, I just give it the name golden pocket, but what it basically means is the 71% golden ratio, right? It's 68.1, but I use 71% um zone all the way down to the 68.1 as well. The the golden pocket doesn't necessarily tell me that price would reverse. It's just an area where, you know, I have to observe and probability starts to increase.

[00:30:53]And then finally, what do we have? The premium zones up here, the discount zone and the equilibrium. This is similar to your supply and demand levels, you know, highs and lows. But the difference is price is always moving from expensive to cheap, expensive to cheap, supply to demand.

[00:31:18]Always the market is always moving from supply zones to demand zones. And you have to understand that the premium level is a price that is trading in the most expensive part of the current range. And what usually happens at the premium level is the price tends to drop at this levels.

[00:31:38]The discount level is the area where the price is trading at the cheapest.

[00:31:46]Markets are historical. Everything you see on this chart is human behavior.

[00:31:52]Mostly human behavior. And humans like to repeat history. They like to repeat themselves. If something was cheaper at this level, when the price gets back there, it becomes cheaper again and it becomes attractive for another buy. The equilibrium is the the middle.

[00:32:10]You can see that as the you can call it the fair value, right? Not cheap, not expensive, just basically where you know the market is thinking of the next place it will go.

[00:32:20]The institutions they use the equilibrium to decide you know which area they paying too much or buying at a discount.

[00:32:30]So that's basically it. We have the previous day high, previous day low.

[00:32:33]This is for intraday trading just so that basically what I do with the previous day high is if the market breaks above it and closes above it, I would look at that as um a confirmation that there will be most likely a continuous trade above that previous day high.

[00:32:50]And yeah, so we're just going to look at gold and I'll tell you guys what I think on gold right now. Again, select uh trading good. I think I mentioned that earlier when the stream started. started catching the gold buys from here early in the morning and here again. And the reason for this is because I was able to integrate a system that shows me when there's a confluence with the order block and the golden pocket. That's what you see here.

[00:33:21][clears throat] Uh OB plus GP. I don't know if you guys can see that.

[00:33:26]And this is the confir doesn't happen all the time, but it basically tells me this was previous order block level and this is also um connecting with the lower golden pocket level as well. Pretty close to the discount. And when conferences happen like this, it's a good indication that price is about to go to the upside.

[00:33:49]Especially when we've had gold, you know, consolidate for a little while.

[00:33:54]You guys obviously know that the market moves from highs to lows, swing highs and swing lows, creating multiple um lower highs, lower lows on the lower time frame and higher highs and higher lows on the higher time frame.

[00:34:08]Obviously, we didn't get to see any trend here. We just saw the market reverse from a downtrend, consolidate, and boom, all the way to the upside.

[00:34:22]Right? The bearish momentum here was rejected a couple of times. Usually when things like this happen, these zones become stronger. Okay, if you're new to trading zones, you obviously know that this level is an area of significance for gold. I already have this in mind, so I don't usually map it out anymore.

[00:34:42]But you can see that from a downtrend, further downside was rejected.

[00:34:50]And then you saw how this level held gold from breaking below it anymore.

[00:34:57]Created strong support here. And you can see that whenever price got to this point, there was a bounce. The break below this point was not even sustained, you know, still got back up and we continue to trade above this point. The more times price bounces at the level, the stronger the level becomes either for a break or for a bounce. And this is on the lower time frames. On the higher time frames, it's even much stronger.

[00:35:24]All right. If I go to the higher time frames, you see multiple rejection candlest.

[00:35:29]Let's go to 4hour. Go to most recent price action.

[00:35:36]You can see the rejections that we had on gold.

[00:35:41]Further downside was declined. uh price almost taps into the discount.

[00:35:46]Obviously, you can connect this discount to this level, but you can see that price got to this point, almost tapped into the discount here and started rejecting.

[00:36:02]No continuous move to the downside, no close below this level. You can see that the market failed to create another lower low over here. You'd see that lower low was created over here. You see a lower low was created. But here there is no further lower low to the downside.

[00:36:22]When you see rejections like this, you see the thing is most times we try to catch every move in the market. We try to be ahead of the market. Sometimes a confirmation can come after 2 days, 3 days, and that's completely fine cuz in a market like this, when you approach levels like this, and this is specifically for the person that was saying supply and demand levels don't work. When you approach levels like this, you obviously know that supply and demand levels are expensive or cheap areas. There are only two things that the market will do at a supply and demand level. either it breaks or it bounces, right? It could consolidate for days, but there must always be a break or a bounce.

[00:37:07]Now, in this level where the market got to this point, if you're trading at this time, you'd obviously know that this is a demand zone for gold. And all you need to see for a confirmation is for the market to close below that demand zone.

[00:37:29]Bearish.

[00:37:32]Yes, there was a pump to the downside, another pump to the downside, but there's no close. You get confirmations when there is a close below that