Final Poll: GOP Shut Out in CA Governor's Race?

Added: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]A major late shift in the California race for governor as the last polling shows two candidates have surged.

[00:00:10]Republicans, they're going to need a strong turnout on election day to prevent a shutout in the top race and four other statewide races. We've got the latest developments in the California primary 2026 races.

[00:00:36]I'm Carl Deayo, chairman of Reform California and a California state representative, and I'm here to discuss and analyze for you the final polling that we're seeing in the governor's race, as well as where things stand in terms of who is returning ballots. The early ballot return showed a surprising lead for Republicans or at least a strong support uh uh uh performance, a disproportionate strength for Republican voters, but the numbers may be misleading, and I'll tell you why in just a moment. Right now, I will tell you that there is still a significant risk that California Republicans are going to get shut out of the runoff uh not only in the governor's race, but four other important statewide races.

[00:01:21]And that is why it is so crucial for every Republican to turn out. And there are also target seats where there's a risk of shutouts as well. Uh go to the website reformc california.org and do three things. Number one, check out the voter guide that we have there. We have a voter guide for every one of California's 58 counties. We endorse in every race where we can find a proven fighter. Uh we're asking people to unite behind the best Republican in each race so that we don't have shutouts. We also give you a plain English description of all of the measures on your ballot.

[00:01:55]Remember, the politicians love to deceive uh people when it comes to those ballot measures and hide tax increases.

[00:02:02]All you have to do is go to the website reformcal.org, Click under voter guide. It's the top yellow bar on the website or go directly to electioncal.org.

[00:02:13]Type in your county and then you can look at the voter guide for your ballot.

[00:02:17]Second, while you're on that website, please sign up so that we can keep you updated on the campaign for California voter ID. That is our next big fight this fall and we need to get volunteers and supporters lined up across the state. No, we do not sell or share your information. Please sign up at the bottom of the website so you stay informed on the campaign. And finally, uh we need your help. We need gas in the tank. Uh we're up against big money, dark money, special interests, and a contribution of $5 is all it takes to help a good candidate across the state win with our support. Please chip in a contribution. Let's talk about the polling and the latest um ballot returns. So, we actually get a report every night from the California Secretary of State that shows all of the ballot returns across the state. Now, we don't know who these people are voting.

[00:03:10]That's always confidential, but we know who's returning ballots because we then can take those people off of our mailing lists, our text lists. That's why I always say if you want peace and quiet, vote early because your name goes off the list. Uh but the current status of who's returning ballots shows u surprising strength in California for Republican voters. Uh and a lethargy uh lack of enthusiasm perhaps by Democrats right now of all ballots returned 41% of them are from Democrat voters. 37% of the ballots are from Republican voters and 22% from independents. Now, if you take a look at the 2022 and 2018 midterm elections in the primary, at this point, the numbers were more like 51% Democrat, 30% Republicans, and the remaining independents. So, you are seeing a significant disproportionate strength by Republicans. That's good, right? But here's what we're seeing under the radar. Many Democrats are holding on to their ballot because they're smart and don't want the Democrats to get shut out. They're going to do strategic voting. They're going to vote for whichever one of the Democrats is the strongest. Plus, they're not so happy with their field of Democrat candidates for governor. Whereas on the Republican side, um I've said all along Chad Biano and Steve Hilton both are good good men.

[00:04:44]They are I I I I absolutely am am just ticked off beyond belief when I see people disparage either one of them online. They're good men. Uh we'd be lucky if either one of them were governor. Okay. But uh we've got to make sure that we only get um well, I'd love to have both of them in the runoff, but I the math in a moment I will show you just won't allow for that. Uh we need to get at least one of them across the finish line. Um, so I think on our side there's actually a little bit more enthusiasm because the people who are voting for uh Hilton are enthusiastic.

[00:05:15]The people who are voting for Chad Biano are enthusiastic. Um whereas on the Democrat side there's not a whole lot of joy. I mean come on Katie Porter Styer Basura not a whole lot of excitement. Uh people are holding their nose on the Democrat side and just kind of saying okay fine I'll throw my lot in with Bera. Um, take a look at the percent turnout. Uh, of all registered voters in each political party category, only 5% or 4.9% of Democrats have returned ballots, whereas 7.9% of Republicans, not quite double, but significantly higher. Um, I do believe that these numbers will level out. I think that we'll likely have about the same percentage of Democrats voting as the percentage of Republicans when all is said and done as those Democrats surge late, which is what I'm expecting. Um, if that happens, the expected share of the election will be between 50 and 52% for Democrats, between 32 and 35% for Republicans, and the remainder will be independent. That's going to put us at a breakdown of about 57% Democrat vote on the natural, 36% Republican vote, and 7% other. That's of all 60 plus candidates on the ballot, the share of all of those candidates for a Republican or an independent or a Democrat will likely break down that way. So, that is what each side is going to be competing over.

[00:06:50]What do the what do the polls show?

[00:06:52]Well, we do now have our final polls. Uh the Democrat uh party has been doing a tracking poll and I've looked at their methodology. I don't see them as putting their thumb on the scale. It's quite consistent with the other private polls, nonpartisan polls that we've seen. I like to blend our polls polls together like into an average in case one of them is a little off. And so here you see Hilton at 19.3% blended average, Bera at 18.3, uh Styer at 15.6, 6 11.3 for Biano and other 35.3.

[00:07:26]Who is the other? Well, they tend to be Democrat. They're undecided Democrats, whereas the Republican vote is pretty decided. Remember I said earlier that the Republicans would get maybe 33% or so um of the the vote. Well, if you take a look at these two averages here, uh you got 30.6%.

[00:07:49]only a couple points are left. So there's a lot more risk that when the Democrat voters who are undecided right now uh of that 35.3% break towards Styer or Bisera that there is a risk that both Basera and Styer overtake Hilton for the top two spots.

[00:08:12]Again I'm looking just at the math. I have said quite clearly I'm not endorsing Hilton or Biano and I like both of them. However, if you take a look, there is a risk right now. Uh we're not going to get top two and there's a risk of a shutout. On Reform California's website, we basically tell people vote for who you want, but you may want to look at the polling and vote for who's in the lead.

[00:08:39]And so we have the polling averages on our website where we suggest that people look at them and decide if they want to vote based on the polling or if they want to ignore the polling and vote u based upon which candidate they actually prefer. Um it's up to you. Uh there are four other races statewide where we are seen based on polling and the field of a risk of a shutout. Lieutenant Governor, we're urging people to vote for Gloria Romero. Treasurer, we urge people to vote for Jennifer Hawk. Superintendent of Public Instruction, please vote for Shauna Shaw and Commissioner of Insurance Stacy Cororsen. In the other three W three statewide races for Attorney General, Secretary of State, and for um controller, uh there's only one Republican running in those races.

[00:09:27]So, we're not at risk of a shutout. But these four, yep, a significant risk of shut out. Um, what can you do to help?

[00:09:37]Well, we've got to hustle in these last two weeks to continue to keep pace and our best shot to potentially, you know, make sure that we get in the runoff at all these races, we got to spike Republican turnout. As I said, I think those Democrats are going to spike at the end, but if Republicans also continue to spike, we actually might have a higher percentage of turnout of Republicans who are hungry for change.

[00:10:04]If I mean, primary elections in the midterm, we might get 35% turnout statewide, maybe 40%.

[00:10:14]What if Republicans showed up at 50%. 55%, 60%. In a primary, we could actually get top two in some of these seats. I am imploring you not just to vote for your your own uh ballot, but I need you to go and tell five of your friends to check out the voter guide at reformc california.org.

[00:10:36]It makes voting super simple in their area and vote. A major spike in turnout is a gamecher.

[00:10:45]Until next time, I'm Carl Deayo, chairman of Reform California and a California state representative. Thanks for watching and I hope you enjoyed this episode. But before you click away, please subscribe to this channel and click that notification button so you get updated when we post new episodes.

[00:11:00]Plus, like this video and share it with your friends so that we can help spread our message across the state. Reform California with Carl Deayo is paid for by Carl Deayo for state assembly.