Australia: Significant Rainfall Event Developing In Queensland...

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:02]Good day folks. My name is Josh from Cyclones Oz and this is your daily detailed forecast update nationwide for the 12th of May 2026. Tuesday, we've got a bit of rainfall coming through and it could now impact areas in New South Wales and Queensland that really badly need it. You can see a bunch of cloud here moving into parts of Queensland, New South Wales, and especially through the Northern Territory in South Australia. This has rain in it and it's not from this band of cloud specifically, but we could actually end up seeing some rainfall through portions of Queensland and New South Wales that really do need it. Now, the situation today is some coastal showers coming into these coastal areas through northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland. Of course, the dominant uh feature right now remains that high pressure system situated firmly over Tasmania, and it's creating a relatively weak synoptic pattern across most of eastern and central Australia. As a result, nothing too crazy in the way of rainfall expected out here. Also, given the time of the year, we're not expecting a few hundred millimeters to fall or major flooding to continue out in this part of central Australia. But there is some good rainfall on the way. So, we'll talk about that in just a few moments at least for northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland as we turn on the Synoptic chart. You can see quite clearly here the high pressure system over Tazzy generating these southerntherly tending southeasterly winds once they get themselves up to the coastline. And you can see areas of rainfall developing through northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland. You can also see up where my face cam is, rainfall beginning to generate up here into western Queensland, eastern NT and northern SA, also extending into pockets of northeastern uh northwestern New South Wales rather. This high pressure system is going to be quite stubborn over the next couple of days. It's not really expected to move far, but it will get itself further out into the Tasmin Sea, which will create a more starker southeasterly flow. So, right now, winds coming up this coast are coming out of the southsoutheast. They're expected to turn more southeasterly as we head out towards the middle portions of the week.

[00:01:47]And we're also going to have an upper trough moving into place. Now, for those of you that are new here, first of all, welcome. Second of all, an upper trough is something we look at quite a lot when we're looking at these rainfall and shower events through southeastern Queensland. So, the surface isabars are turned on. You can see down here that high pressure system running right through the atmosphere. Very, very strong high pressure ridge that is. But then you can see a trough extending out of an area of low pressure over towards the north of New Zealand. And that trough extends through the mid- levels right over towards northeastern New South Wales. This being tomorrow morning. Now upper level troughs generally have some cooler air aloft.

[00:02:20]And that contrast through the atmosphere. The warmer air down at the surface and the cooler air up the top generates stronger instability or convective available potential energy.

[00:02:28]Now stronger instability means showers that do develop are tend to become a little bit more convective in nature.

[00:02:34]they can produce thunderstorms and as a result some of the rainfall becomes a little bit heavier embedded within them.

[00:02:39]They also become a little bit more widespread. So let's have a look at what that means right now. So currently no upper trough involved. Rainfall uh coloring here is mainly in the blue. Now as that upper trough begins to move into the region through tonight and tomorrow morning, you can begin to see some heavier falls uh associated along the New South Wales coastline. Uh some areas of yellows and reds begin to make themselves apparent. And then through Wednesday and Thursday, some of that heavier rainfall potential begins to develop around the southeastern coast of Queensland. So, Brisbane and the Gold Coast. It's not going to translate to flooding rains or anything too crazy, but it will translate to a measurable uptick in rainfall. And it does look like a potential for, you know, double-digit rainfall accumulations through Wednesday and Thursday around the Gold Coast and through northeastern New South Wales will begin to increase.

[00:03:20]Now, rainfall does remain mostly light for many areas. There's the chance of up to 50 mm throughout the remainder of the week through northeastern New South Wales given they are, you know, very much in the box sea to receive the majority of these prevailing onshore winds. For southeastern Queensland, the heaviest falls should be around the Gold Coast. No more than about 25 or 30 mm there. Brisbane will struggle to get more than 15 mm. The Sunshine Coast increasing to about 25 mm or so. through tomorrow and uh uh Thursday, we are likely to see a couple of light showers make it out into the Granite Belt and the Darling DS, but again, no more than about 1 or 2 millimeters with rainfall abruptly stopping once it gets towards the west of War and and Towa Womba. No drought relief coming in in the form of these showers. And then as that upper trough begins to move off out of the region on Friday, we do see a reduction in rainfall potential. Friday is when the situation becomes a little bit more interesting and it is again all thanks to this high pressure system. So high-pressure system sinks down towards the south, it then locates itself around New Zealand, which means uh on the front side of high-pressure system. So when you've got the high pressure system towards the west of a certain location, say right now the high is located over Tazzy and Brisbane is geographically speaking towards the east of the high pressure system. It's more sort of northnortheast, but it is uh for all intents and purposes east. We see the winds of the high pressure system coming in from the east, which means the rainfall is coming in from the coast.

[00:04:40]Now, when the winds uh when the high pressure system is located close to New Zealand, the Brisbane area, for example, is towards the west, which means winds begin to turn a little bit more easterly and then eventually a little bit more northeasterly. That brings a little bit more tropical rainfall into the picture and it will work to reduce some of the rainfall accumulations for the southeastern coast of Queensland. It will wrap closer around the high pressure system and focus itself more into New South Wales. So, more showers coming into New South Wales around Sydney and right up and down the New South Wales coastline towards the end of the week as this high pressure system moves out towards New Zealand. Rainfall potential will ease off towards the end of the week and into the weekend for southeastern Queensland and just Queensland in general. Again, rainfall remaining strictly coastal. We're not talking about inland falls here. So, places like Sydney, Newcastle, Wulingong, the midn north coast and the northeastern coast with a couple of showers making it down into the Ilawir and southeastern coast as well. It does look like a weak trough is going to develop through here as well, which means on its eastern flank, we could see some briefly heavier rainfall accumulations, but that looks to be located mostly offshore thanks to the high pressure system moving off towards New Zealand. The system sinking further south is also going to allow a little bit of a rainfall in central Australia to sink further towards the south as well, which is good news for key growing regions in South Australia and Victoria.

[00:05:51]Let's talk about that one right now. So, a lot of cloud located over central Australia today. You can see some significant amounts of cloud moving through much of central and western Queensland. A lot of cloud through northeastern portions of SA and through western and northwestern New South Wales. Now, the majority of this cloud is more bark than bite as we like to say on the channel. There's not a whole lot of rainfall associated with this cloud activity. You can see a couple of light streaks of rain up here into northwestern Queensland extending down to about Moranar outside of Rockampton in central Queensland. A couple of showers also around the Lake Air region towards the north of Wra and Marie and Lake Torrance. Few showers into northwestern New South Wales, but very little in the way of rainfall associated with this cloud because it is mostly in the mid levels. There's relatively weak forcing onto the surface levels, but you can see a trough is beginning to develop around western Queensland. And this trough will work to generate some broad or broader increase in uh forcing which should allow for some more shower and thunderstorm activity to develop through today, tomorrow, and into Thursday. And you can see that quite clearly on the rainfall forecast. rainfall does begin to increase particularly around the Queensland, Northern Territory, New South Wales and South Australia borders.

[00:06:56]This area through here, we are expecting a bit of an increase in shower potential. So places like Birdsville, Mumba, Inaminka towards the northeast of Lake Air, all likely to see a bit of an increase in rainfall and thunderstorm potential through Wednesday and Thursday especially, but also in towards through today and out towards about Friday. Very remote part of Australia, not impacting too many people, but this is expected to couple up with an approaching cold front from the west. Now, this frontal system is not going to be anything significant to talk about at all. You can see it's a very weak frontal system here based off the very weak kind of contrast between windstream lines. In fact, it turns more troughy in nature once it gets to about the north of north of a line around Kangaroo Island or so. So, this kind of trough/coldfront moving through will drag this moisture that we're seeing developing through central Australia further towards the south. That's also going to be aided by that prevailing northeasterly flow as that high pressure system moves out to New Zealand. You see how everything is connected. This is a great example of how interconnected all these weather patterns are, but it will allow for some of this rainfall, which will be light to moderate at this point in time, to sink down into parts of South Australia that would really like this rainfall. So, the Adelaide area, the southeast areas, and potentially into the York and maybe the Air Peninsula as well. There is still a bit of uncertainty as to where the heaviest rainfall is expected to be or just how heavy the rainfall is expected to be.

[00:08:08]But late Friday into Saturday, we are expecting a band of, you know, somewhat steady rainfall to develop. Maybe a couple of millimeters an hour for a period of about 4 to 6 hours or so.

[00:08:17]Nothing too crazy, mostly light in nature, but just beautiful for farmland.

[00:08:21]A couple of storms may be following and behind it as instability increases in the wake of that cold front. But we could be talking about, you know, broadf falls between 20 to 40 mm in a few spots around South Australia. The focus of that heavier rainfall being just north of Adelaide into the Flenders and maybe even into the Gola ranges as well around the York and the Air Peninsula depending on what thunderstorms come through on Saturday. It looks like rainfall will ease out of South Australia on Saturday.

[00:08:44]It's going to move in towards New South Wales and Western Victoria through Saturday and into early Sunday. Again, falls between 10 to 30 millimeters are generally expected at this point in time. Good rainfall, not going to cause any flooding, but it will be enough to top up tanks and, you know, create a bit of a green tinge in the paddics just ahead of our winter cropping season. So, this is just fantastic to see. If you're looking to seed before good rainfall comes through, now is the time to do it.

[00:09:05]Particularly through most of Victoria, particularly into the west where rainfall is very likely to occur. Uh, and also through portions of southeast and South Australia around Adelaide. I'd say anywhere between or east of a line between Port Augusta and Wala is a very safe bet at this point in time to put some seed in the ground ahead of some good rainfall coming through this weekend. Of course, consult with the forecast before you do that. This modeling could change at a moment's notice. Now, this trough is expected to move through. It's a very weak synoptic pattern on the surface levels, but we do have a little bit more forcing into the mid- levels. And again, a lot of mid-level moisture streaming through as well. You can see that quite clearly into the mid- levels if I turn the humidity map on here. A lot of moisture streaming through this weekend into Queensland and New South Wales. And this is where the rainfall forecast gets very interesting for Queensland and New South Wales because you can see this sort of, I guess, frontal system. It's not a front, but it is a bit of a rainbearing front or northwestern cloudband moving into New South Wales and Queensland towards Sunday and Monday. Now, I just want to say a couple of things before uh people start asking a lot of questions about this rainfall event. Is this drought-breaking rainfall for northeast New South Wales and Southeast Queensland? I can categorically say with a high degree of confidence, most likely not at this point in time. Is this some rain relief? Sure. There could be, you know, embedded falls between 10 to 25 millimeters through here, but it's not going to be enough to curb the drought that we're seeing developing through here. Another thing that we talked about yesterday is El Nino and uh is this rainfall got anything to do with El Nino or Leninia? Now, El Nino hasn't developed yet. And El Nino doesn't blanket mean rainfall stops when El Nino is around. It just means less of these rainfall events coming through. It can still rain in El Nino and it can still be completely dry in Lan Nino. We have to look at other climactic factors such as SAM and the IOD which are the main driving forces behind this sort of rainfall here because it is coming in from the west. So the IOD is the main factor at play. Warm sea temperatures offshore from New South Wales and Queens will also aid in uh producing more rainfall for coastal areas. But for inland locations, as you can see on the rainfall accumulation map here this weekend and out towards early next week, 4 day falls, they're just not there. I mean, you know, most areas looking at under 10 millimeters of rainfall. You know, maybe 20 millimeters in a few spots through New South Wales. The good news is there is going to be some rainfall targeting these drought impacted communities in northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland.

[00:11:15]But Taylor's oldest time, the heavier stuff targets areas that don't need the rainfall. I mean, western New South Wales, southwestern Queensland, even portions of Western Victoria, they've had incredible rainfall through the summer months. And whilst some rainfall will very much be welcome in those locations, they do not need this rainfall as badly as northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland.

[00:11:33]And again, thanks to those warm sea temperatures on the back side of this frontal system moving through this cloud system into the Tasmin Sea, rainfall will dramatically increase. But again, it's going to all fall offshore and it's useless to coastal locations in New South Wales and Queensland. Now, another thing that I would like to say is forecast models tend to be very aggressive into the long range. We generally see a bit of a reduction in rainfall intensity as we move on through the forecast period. So that's even more bad news for these locations. As you can see here, a very weak forcing pattern into the surface levels. There's no kind of trough or front to, you know, really generate and force some lift which will generate some thunderstorms and rainfall associated with this. It's kind of just mid-level cloud which is a very weak mechanism for producing rainfall. So I'm skeptical that places are even going to see 20 mm out of this and I think you should be too. Definitely something to be watching quite closely over the next couple of days. But is it something I'd be, you know, celebrating or rejoicing over at this point in time and expecting drought busting rainfall despite what the headlines are going to say? Not at this point in time. Don't get me wrong, it's fantastic to see this on the forecast and I don't want to be all doom and gloom here, but it's not going to be that drought busting rainfall that some of the headlines are going to make it uh out to be. So, just be careful when you're browsing along other weather forecasts. Make sure to consult with Bomb because they'll have the real picture as well on their rainfall predictions. It's also still a week away, so a lot can still change. And then you can see pushing out to the rest of the forecast picture, our old friend high pressure returns. And right out to the end of May, by the looks of things into early June, it is a stable, calm, and collected picture across our eastern seabboard. Not ideal, that's for sure.

[00:13:04]Other interesting nuggets making weather headlines today. We do have some more rainfall expected up into Fun and Queensland, of course, as we've been talking about in recent days. The tropics remaining pretty active and that's going to continue for the Casper coast and into the Dantry rainforest as well. Southeasterly prevailing winds are expected to generate areas of showers and thunderstorms through the north tropical coast particularly into the Casri coast and also into the Daintry rainforest. Again, very typical for this time of the year. This is a quintessential May early June pattern.

[00:13:30]Those prevailing onshore southeasterly winds. Uh daily rainfall accumulations shouldn't exceed 25 mm in any one location, but a couple of spots could get closer to the 100, 150, even 200 mm mark over the next two weeks. Not unusual for this time of the year, but definitely some rainfall worth taking notes of and some more pesky weather coming through. There's no real one day where this rainfall really does increase, but you can see as we head out towards Thursday and Friday, maybe even in towards early next week, we begin to see a brief uptick in rainfall accumulations before conditions get a lot drier around the 20th of May, at least briefly speaking. And then it looks like rainfall returns towards the end of the forecast period. Just on and off showery stuff coming into this region of northern Queensland. The remainder of northern Australia though, as you can see, remaining dry, particularly beyond the 15th of May after all of this tropical moisture kind of gets itself out of the or gets it gets out of its system. There could actually be some decent rainfall around WA. This is not tropical in nature, but it does look like some kind of northwestern cloudband/ low pressure system ahead of a strong cold front towards the end of May may develop out here. Again, a lot of question marks as to timing, positioning, and how much rainfall is going to come through for these areas, but I wouldn't be expecting anything too crazy to develop as a result. We'll definitely keep an eye on the situation, but I'm not expecting anything too crazy or too nutty to develop out here. I do think the forecast models are kind of cooking up another storm in a teacup. And you can see between major forecast models right now, the congruency between the EC and the GFS is definitely there, but in terms of where the heaviest rainfall is going to target, a bit of uncertainty at this point in time and it's not happening in the next week. So, it's generally speaking not a rainful event.

[00:15:01]That'd be worth wor that'd be worth worrying about right now. Also, uh, one thing that I would like to add is be very careful when you're looking at the GFS to get your rainful picture. Now, the GFS is a great forecast model. It's tried and tested. It's been around for decades and it knows what it's doing, but it can cook up some absolute uh, scorches uh, into the long range, for lack of a better term. So, longrange GFS ensemble forecasting can be pretty dodgy at times, and no better of an example is this. I mean, I struggle to believe we're going to see an out ofseason 150 mm rainfall dump in drought blasted Queensland and New South Wales. So, if you're seeing GFS rainfall forecasts over on Facebook or in the news, just take them with that extra pinch of salt and consult with the uh people in the know uh when this rainfall does come through. Generally speaking, uh anything beyond the 10-day forecast period, which is when this rainfall is coming through across eastern Australia on this forecast depiction, pretty unreliable.

[00:15:51]You can get away with throwing it out into the trash, but it can give us a good idea. We'll keep an eye on this situation, but I'm very very skeptical right now. I got I'm getting a lot of backlash for southwestern WA. Turns out a lot of my viewers are actually from southwestern WA or you're a loud minority. Either way, I love you guys.

[00:16:05]I'm from southwestern WA as well. But let's talk about the weather situation over in southwestern WA. We have a couple of cold fronts approaching the southwestern coast today. We've got this one here which is decaying today, but a couple of thunderstorms associated on its leading edge. quite an unstable atmosphere and that is all thanks to again the high pressure system over Tasmania drawing in a lot of latent heat across western Australia. It's going to be another warm day across most of the southwest. This isn't expected to clip southwestern WA today. It might generate some cool clouds offshore from say Cape Luen and Cape Naturalist, but I wouldn't be expecting anything too crazy. Bit of a stronger developing cold front associated with a much stronger area of low pressure with a pressure of 971 hectar pascals here well to the southwest of W8. That's going to move in through uh tonight and into tomorrow.

[00:16:47]That's going to brush up against the southwestern land divisions through tomorrow. Again, a couple of thunderstorms and showers are possible through later portions of tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening. These could clip the Perth metro area tomorrow night, but very light falls are expected there. It's just going to be that sort of rainfall where you wake up and your car's covered in water spots and dust the next day. It's nothing to write home about at this point in time. That high pressure ridge suppressing rainfall out of mainland Australia. It will be a little bit cooler though, and you can see through Thursday and Friday, those westerlys and southwesterlys do bring some cooler weather ashore. And then that developing frontal system through Thursday uh or Thursday night into Friday should bring some broader areas of rainfall and showers across most of the south coast right out to about Esperence and Israelite Bay. Then through Saturday and Sunday, clearer conditions develop for inland locations.

[00:17:29]A few showers still for coastal areas and then a stronger high pressure system developing next week. That is expected to translate to more significant areas of uh fine and clear conditions as we head out to about the 20th of May. And then the longer range picture does remain pretty uncertain at this point in time. We are seeing oscillations between dry and wet weather to end May. But at this point in time, just given how strong the subtropical ridge is and the SAM phase, I'm leaning towards a very dry end across southwestern WA. So not not much coming through. Rain for the south rain for the south coast, I should say. Perth metro area getting left out of the rainfall fun. Now that has been a very long weather forecast update today.

[00:18:04]I've just talked and talked and talked as we do on this channel. If you've got any questions or comments, leave them in the comment section down below. I'd be more than happy to get through them all throughout the course of today. Uh something big is coming as well. We're going to have some announcements and information on that over the next week or so. So, you don't want to miss it. It is fantastic. It is a relaunch of Cyclones O. I'm very, very excited to share with you what we've got. So, make sure that you are ready for that. Uh that's going to be launching June 1st.

[00:18:29]So, a lot more information to come over the next week or so. But that'll do it for me today. Have a wonderful what is it Tuesday and I'll catch you on the next storm. Goodbye.