India Hikes Petrol Prices: Will It Cross ₹150? Sajjan Kumar Decodes Fuel Rate Politics | Unedited

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Hello and welcome back to another episode of unedited. I'm Shivangi and with me today I have a political analyst Sajjin Kumaras. Welcome to unedited and today the hot topic is petrol and diesel prices. Now the prices of petrol and diesel across India have been hiked for about fourth time in 10 days. So this is quite high. I mean people are angry, people are anxious because they feel that they have been cheated because of the elections initially. People have this thing in their mindset that the prices were about to increase initially but they were kept on hold because of the elections and now after you know uh elections and everything has been done the government is continuously increases the increasing the prices. So is that one of the main reasons?

[00:00:42]>> No one of the main reason because if you see there is always a conflict or a chemistry between a politics and policy.

[00:00:48]So because elections were there and government naturally because you have a political uh sensibilities also and therefore they were holding on to this increasing the price risk which was bound to happen. Why? Because uh uh with the Iran and US conflict and with the blockage of the hormones what was happening that our petroleum companies oil uh uh petroleum companies they were bleeding I mean 1,000 cr per day and 30 30,000 cr on an average monthly that was the loss. uh still the major petroleum companies are uh incurring a loss of uh 13 rupees per liter on petrol >> and around 38 rupees per liter on diesel. Right? So that is something that has to be covered. The government has done its part the central government by reducing the excise duty partially around rupees 10 which went to uh the help of oil producing company. But nevertheless this is something wherein the international crude price in dollar is increasing more than $100 and the value of rupee rupee is declining right.

[00:01:50]So there therefore with every increase you have to pay more in rupee and then the companies needs to be protected because they are incurring a loss for almost for last one year and therefore last 3 months in substantial deal. So the government was I mean it was decided that they will increase because you have no other option but elections always gave you a political you know a waiting period and I mean people have a right to feel a bit agrieved because something that was bound to happen you just gave them an artificial feel good you know >> yeah that was the kind of feeling that the government yeah but uh this is fourth time in 10 days >> the question how high can petrol prices go what that is exactly the question in people's mind how high will the prices go what do you think what is your analy.

[00:02:32]>> So this certainly will not go to this extent on rupees 150 but certainly uh on petrol 13 rupees is the loss of the oil making companies.

[00:02:42]>> Okay.

[00:02:42]>> Plus the value of rupee is depreciating which are with dollar. So 13 plus 4 five more rupees. So it may increase up to 15 16 more rupees on petrol. So it may go up to 120 rupees. Uh diesel uh there in the loss per liter is substantial around 38 you know. So diesel also make towards 125 120. So certainly 120 plus is the bottom line which is bound to happen because you need to protect the oil uh making companies like uh IPCL, HPCL uh etc. Indian oil company. uh this is because unless and until the international uh conflict doesn't get resolved and that doesn't start affecting the depreciation in uh petroleum prices which should come below $100 but that is not going even if suppose tomorrow Iran and US conflict is resolved you know to restore the oil producing countries their pre-war level production because it got damaged because of the attack by Iran it will take at least one to two years >> right so No uh immediate relief is going to come. Some uh nizer measure could be that while the central government has already reduced the excise duty.

[00:03:52]>> The state government also levy vat on petroleum and that is why you have different fluctuating price. So if you are traveling from Delhi to Bengal, you would like to have your tank filled in up because the VAT is relatively less.

[00:04:03]It is very high in Bengal you know. So some state governments can do some part in reducing the vat levied on the petroleum.

[00:04:10]>> Yeah. That happened in Delhi in fact.

[00:04:11]>> But nevertheless they also have lots many populist policies. Yeah, >> you know you call it freebies, you call it welfare schemes. They also have to continue one with the other. So inflation and populist policies how long can they go together is something that needs to be but state government have some window you know to marginally give some relief you know but it will go above 120 this is something that we all expect.

[00:04:34]>> Okay above 120 is what you're expecting what you're analyzing. Now we were you were discussing about the conflict in West Asia that is something one of the main key reasons because of which we are seeing a hike like this. What do you think what do you analyze about that the US Iran conflict today Marco Rubio before leaving for us he also made this statement that you know we we're about to give a good news regarding the US Iran conflict. What do you think when can we expect good news from that side?

[00:05:00]No, that's very difficult to say because uh the President Trump uh exhibits completely two diametrically opposite personality even sometimes within the same day. So one night he will announce that a old civilization is going to be destroyed forever and next morning he will say that we are very soon going to have a permanent solution. Right?

[00:05:16]>> So this sort of a perpetual uncertaintity is something which is not good for the market sentiment. This is one. to uh the conditions which are incommensurable wherein you cannot agree like asking Iran to let go of the enriched uranium this is something minded this is for Iran's sensibilities is non-negotiable because no country wants a solution wherein it it is seen from their vantage point as a national humiliation you know so that will not happen so therefore they need to find a pragmatic way does President Trump have that pragmatism flexibility maybe because he is a businessman you know also society >> his mind is always on the stock market.

[00:05:57]>> Exactly. But at the same time he also needs to sell his uh sort of a very superman image to his MAGA support base because you have midterm elections in US. So that way it is very difficult to say that until President Trump is there or in in 2026 are we going to see some sort of a resolve but one thing is sure both Iran and US are tired of this conflict you know because the cost of war is international. Now Iran despite being weak has chose a very wise strategy of attacking the vulnerables not the strong points of the enemy. So vulnerables are your assets your allies in the Middle East the Gulf countries and that way both sides want now because the kind of cost the war is creating havoc across the globe. They like to I mean kind of come to a conclusion would there be a I mean terms wherein both sides can agree. I think there may be a hope but we should not be very much hopeful because uh both sides President Trump and the supreme leader of Iran are hardened in certain or also there are certain domestic compulsions also. So I think we should expect pragmatically I mean we should not be uh optimistic and we should expect some long shelf at least of 6 months another 6 months to see that this sort of a fluctuation will happen and that will affect all the prices.

[00:07:16]>> Exactly. So you are saying that the standoff could go on for about another 6 months that is big that is quite big uh analysis and uh thing that you saying but sir also if that happens and if after 6 months uh this blockade get removes uh there's a ne there's a negotiation or a deal between the two countries and everything comes you know starts coming back to normal will there be a cut in these prices the petrol and diesel prices >> usually we have never seen a reverse you know uh slash in the petroleum crisis.

[00:07:46]Sometimes it happened but it has just happened in a symbolic way that has not given substantial uh uh sort of relief.

[00:07:52]So unless and until right the international crude oil prices doesn't come down substantially you know and once the situation is resolved suppose then one India is already diversifying so one/ird of our petroleum is coming from Russia you know we are also trying to get it from uh Latin American countries like Venezuela US is also roping in and besides that we are also UAE and Saudi Arabia etc they are coming in but Gulf countries will take time and we would be more dependent upon countries like Russia. In that scenario, there may be some partial age but mind it central government always has the in intensive to incentive to have more taxes to spend on infrastructure to spend on welfare schemes. So will there be a incentive by the central government to slash the prices? I think that would be uh uh secondary or tertiary in terms of the priority because once you get normalized to a certain price bracket you know government doesn't feel that they are going to be punished electorally because it's it becomes a new normal you know so now the thing is that rupee should not be touching 100 rupee per dollar because 100 is a mental barrier but once it crosses right it becomes a new normal we accept it so simply petroleum also it has already in many states crossed 100 rupees so it becomes a new normal and government has the incentive to uh not go to alter something wherein people have a tolerance and will try to accumulate taxes and spend on something wherein they think >> there should be more investment.

[00:09:24]>> Okay. So slashes might not be there but also as you were saying about rupee rupee against dollar that is also increasing inflation is something that is on the minds of people. People are everyday you know on social media making videos highlighting how the uh value of rupee is depreciating day by day. Isn't that affecting the economy? In fact, the mindset of the people as well.

[00:09:44]>> So that is also psychological barrier that once the rupees start falling vijabi dollar we think that it's bad for economy.

[00:09:50]>> And why what is the main reason behind that?

[00:09:53]>> One of the reason is always that uh the interest rate >> in US is more. So more investors are investing in US or they are not taking their money from US to invest in Indian market. Okay. You know so that is why the dollar is appreciating. The once dollar appreciates so comparatively rupee starts falling. This is one. Two falling rupee is not bad in every scenario. It is good for exports because your exports become cheaper. So there would be more demand where it impacts is the import like petroleum right. So India is also making India and lots many other initiative you see that is in a way is trying to increase the export bracket of India you know. So while a depreciated rupee you know psychologically is seen as a weakened economy but it is not always bad for trade if you look from the export because India is not a major export ccentric economy like China.

[00:10:44]>> Yeah.

[00:10:44]>> You know that is why it affects us more right but otherwise you will say that the countries like Japan, China deliberately by state intervention try to depreciate yuan or yan etc. Right?

[00:10:56]>> Okay. So so so that way they benefited from we were in a socialist economy wherein the value of currency was attached to the national prestige. So that mindset still has a hangover you know >> people have that mindset in fact.

[00:11:08]>> Exactly. Exactly. So unless and until the foreign capital doesn't start getting invested again in India in a big way because now everyone is holding on to something because no one is sure about the global market fluctuations.

[00:11:20]The depreciations of rupee may continue right. Government may try RBM may try to hold on to because of the mental barrier of 100 rupees.

[00:11:28]>> Will that touch 100?

[00:11:29]>> It it should touch 100 and many of the economists like Panara and others have warned that the RBI should not deliberately because of the psychology of the people try to artificially check that thing. Let rupee go beyond 100.

[00:11:42]It's just a number whether it's 99 98.

[00:11:45]>> You are quite optimistic about it.

[00:11:47]>> Exactly. It's just a number. So that is why many of the economists have also said that let it depreciate and focus more on its exports and India already have uh free trade agreement with European bilateral agreement because of the US tariff war. So try to focus on that try to make it more exporter oriented rather than artificially trying to appreciate rupee which is linked to the global fluctuation which is not under India's control.

[00:12:11]>> Okay.

[00:12:11]>> Right.

[00:12:12]>> So that is a new angle or a perspective that you given. So thank you sir. But uh on petrol and diesel prices that as you said it could reach 120. So people will have to you know buckle up uh because prices might increase more in the coming days. But thank you so much sir for an for the analysis and informing us about all these things for our viewers. Uh I hope you love this interaction and if you have questions then please share in the comment section.