Thomas J. Christensen on US-China relations

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]I worry that the Chinese leaders might think that the statements that President Trump made about Taiwan are a permanent change in US policy on Taiwan. And there's two reasons to question that that that's the case. Uh one is that there's almost certainly going to be some domestic pressure on the Trump administration to to solidify the relationship with Taiwan on the on the security front.

[00:00:25]um uh some of the statements that President Trump made are not the traditional policies of the United States. And a second thing is that President Trump often changes his mind.

[00:00:36]And if you think about Taiwan arm sales as a bargaining chip, as President Trump laid it out, on the one hand, that's music to China's ears because they've been trying for the longest time to link US Taiwan policy to anything that they wanted uh from the United States uh or or the United States wanted from China on any other issue. So it was always you know if you want cooperation on North Korea, Iran or any other issue then you don't want the atmosphere to be spoiled by US policy towards Taiwan. And presidents have tried to reject that linkage in the past. But now it's a bargaining chip. But a bargaining chip can mean two very opposite things. It can mean if China cooperates with the United States on Iran, then the United States may not sell weapons to Taiwan.

[00:01:17]But it can also mean that the United States is frustrated with China on some issue. Taiwan arm sales and other Taiwan policies can be a bargaining chip to punish China. Um, so that's less stable than a sturdy policy that says we care about Taiwan's long-term security. We're going to sell it arms that it needs and we're not going to negotiate on other issues about that relationship with Taiwan.