Scaramucci offers a sharp look at the tension between political ego and economic stability, though it largely echoes familiar institutionalist warnings. It serves as a sobering reminder that the Fed’s independence is only as strong as the political norms protecting it.
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Trump FREAKING OUT Over Jerome Powell’s CompetenceHinzugefügt:
We got a big Washington drama going on between Jerome Pal and Donald Trump. And May 15th is just around the corner. So viewers and listeners, Jerome Pal's term ends May 15th. But guess what? Tom Tillis and a group of of the Senate Banking Committee Republicans really led by Tillis because he doesn't care anymore. He's not running for reelection. He is blocking Kevin Worsh's ability to get confirmed. So the way it works in the US, you got to go through the Senate Banking Committee. Once you're confirmed there, they kick it up to the Congress and then the Senate has a vote on your confirmation. Uh but Tiller says he won't allow that to happen until the Department of Justice, Janine Piro, in the DC area drops the criminal charges and the potential indictment of Jerome Pal. So, you are down in Washington and you cover this really well. Is that going to happen?
Are they going to drop the criminal charges or are they going to keep him going? And prosecutors have admitted to journalists they have no evidence on this case. This is just a Trump retribution case. So, we now have the Department of Injustice. Stephanie, >> yet again, the president is using our, not his, our Department of Justice for his own personal vendettas. And time and again, it's not even working out for him. Right. It was just this week a judge threw out the case, the defamation case that Trump launched against Rupert Murdoch and the Wall Street Journal for the accurate reporting they did on the Jeffrey Epstein birthday book. Remember when Donald Trump sent him basically the, you know, had basically the one-page love letter in Epstein's birthday book, despite the fact that two days ago JD Vance said, "Donald Trump hated Jeffrey Epste. Last I checked, nobody I hate writes me these birthday tributes." But Donald Trump has a be in his bonnet to go after Jay Powell. And we should remind your audience, Donald Trump nominated him. Donald Trump chose Jerome Powell in his first term. He's grown angrier and angrier with him. I actually have this belief that potentially Kevin Worsh doesn't mind all of this getting delayed because for Kevin Worsh who's wanted this job for years and years. He wanted it during Trump 1.0. He campaigned unbelievably hard and skillfully to get it in Trump 2.0. The closer Kevin Worsh can get to the midterms once he's confirmed, the better. the closer he can get to Donald Trump being a lame duck president, the greater Wars' ability to actually run an independent Federal Reserve, which is I'm sure he made all sorts of wink wink nod nods to the president, but he'd like the Fed to be independent. It's one of the most important things in terms of our economic health. But right after Trump chose him, I think it was less than a week later, um it was the Alfalfa dinner and Trump said it tongue and cheek joking, but he said right up there, and Kevin Worsher's in the room, I think he's a member of Alalfa. He said, and don't forget, if you don't lower rates, I'm going to sue you. And that's been Trump's MMO since he landed back in office. But I'll tell you, with the exception of the press, who continues to stand up and stand against this president, the courts have not been friendly to him. Janine Piro might be Pam Bondi may have been but the courts haven't been in large part.
>> So your opinion WSH doesn't get through the committee. It's May 16th. Jerome Pal's term is over. Does he stay as chairman?
>> I think he stays. I think Jay Powell's signature besides getting us through a complicated COVID, right? There were times you could say like he's doing a disastrous job, but but hindsight's 2020. He's gotten us through this, right? He has. I think Jay Powell continues to say, "What is the exact letter of the law? What are the exact rules?" And he has shown zero fear or folding or response to Donald Trump. and he's just held steady. So, if he technically is allowed to stay in that role, he ain't going anywhere. What do you think he's going to do?
>> Well, I think I think Trump will try to fire him. He told Maria Bar Roma that he's going to fire him. Uh he's he fired Lisa Cook and the and the court injuncted that and said that she can stay and that's awaiting trial. So, he'll fire Jerome Pal, I believe, because of that past president. Jerome Pal, you got to love this guy. He's got brass kones, as they say.
>> He sure does.
>> And he's going to he's going to stay.
And then if he's able to stay, Trump's trying to get Steve Moran, one of his governors, the interim Fed chair. But that's not going to happen.
>> You tell me the answer to this. Who are the voters who are saying, "Donald Trump, I voted for you to get Jay Powell the hell out of that seat." Who? This to me, right, goes back to yet another one of Donald Trump's personal vendettas, right? You've got the stock, you have the S&P winking at hitting record highs, okay? Despite all that's happening in terms of policy, businesses are doing very well. What's his beef with Jay Powell? He should be able to say, "Things are moving pretty smoothly. I'm a-okay. Sure, I'd like rates to be lower. Every president would like rates to be lower." It confounds me that he continues to ride Jay Powell like secretariat.
>> All right. So, so here's what I think is going to happen. He's going to stay. Uh they may try to push to get 60 votes.
That's one way to dislodge the committee block. Uh I think that's very low likelihood. The Supreme Court's going to rule on the Lisa Cook situation. Again, this is a board of governor fired by Trump. Uh the oral arguments were a few months ago and the court's supposed to rule in June. I think the court's ruling against Trump because that would mean that every time a new politician comes into town, they can fire the whole board. Even Judge Kavanaaugh, one of the lackey of Donald Trump, questioned uh the solicitor general in the oral argument related to this. So, so here's what I think is going to happen. Pal stays and I'm making the bet that between now and May 15th, the charges are dropped. I repeat, the charges are dropped because Senator Tim Scott said this is going to get resolved in a few weeks. Janine Piro poo pooed that. The White House poo pooed that. Uh but I believe there are so many fish frying in the White House fryer, right? Trump is back in McDonald's, Stephanie. He's frying fish for fish fillet and he's frying French fries and he's trying to fry Jerome Pal and it's not going to work.
>> But why? My question to you is besides when Trump decides he's mad you >> because he is an let's just go over the pyramid of what it is. Why are you laughing?
>> I wasn't ready for that answer >> and and well because that's the answer.
Okay. And that's you know look I mean you know you know that's the answer and our viewers and listeners know that he's he's a retributionoriented retribution centric and he's running the department of injustice and he wants to use the cudel of that against people like Comey and John Bolton and Jerome Pal. They make me and my opposition to Donald Trump is like a cakewalk actually. It's like very light in comparison.
>> Okay. But then Anthony, explain this to me. I would argue that Jay Powell being in that job has only helped the markets.
Donald Trump's most important, if only guardrail are the markets. And Jay Powell being in that seat and giving investors here and abroad the assurance that the Fed has maintained its independence has only helped the markets. How doesn't Donald Trump even see that? So, let's say he, you know, listen, he's a phenomenal communicator.
He's he's I I can't think of someone who's been more effective in terms of messaging as a modern-day politician.
So, he could put on his dog and pony show and say, "I'm trying to get Jay Powell to cut rates. I know it's so hard to get a mortgage out there." And that would be enough. But instead, to take it to the mat to try to take Jay Powell down when the booming markets have been a one of the things that Donald Trump can can surround himself with in a cushion of joy. I just don't understand besides having a personal vendetta why he doesn't think strategically and just leave Jay Powell the heck alone.
>> He's a bully and he's trying to send a message to his new Fed chair. If you don't do exactly what I want, we're going to have a criminal investigation against you. You see what I'm doing to Jerome Pal right now? That's your future if you don't do exactly what I want. But remember, Pal has the right >> to stay >> Mhm.
>> on the board of governors until January of 2028. And Pal has said he's not going anywhere until this criminal investigation is in complete finality.
So trust me, okay? Bent is talking to Trump and he's telling him, "Drop the case. Figure out a way to get the case dropped. I'll get your own pal off the board and you'll get a twofer. You'll have Warshin as Fed chair and then you'll get to pick another Steve Moran lookalike as a Fed governor. And so so to me, that's what I think is the most likely outcome. We'll we'll see if I'm right about it. But >> the only thing I'm I'm not 100% sure if you're right. You're talking about Scott Bessant like he's going to be the voice of reason. And I thought he was going to be the when Scott Bessant got the job.
>> Did he punch out Kevin Hasset today?
Someone told me he was in a fish fight with Kevin Hasset. Is that true? I do not know if that's true.
>> Do you think Scott could take Kevin in a fight? I mean, just asking as a high schooler, what do you think >> in terms of people in very very powerful positions? Something that I've noticed about Scott Bessant that's unlike any other very powerful person, he's absolutely charmless, right? There could be powerful people who, you know, I don't necessarily agree with them, but they know how to win over a crowd. They know how to be really charming. He is charmless. Now, he's wildly qualified for the job, but I've been shocked on the downside and definitely sort of the social media universe have had killed me over it, saying, "You said he was going to be good for the job." I never said he was going to be good. I said he was going to be qualified, which he is, but he's really represented himself to just be such a Trump yes man. Think about all the TV interviews he did with those teeth chat chat chat chat chattering as he's defending tariff policies that he knew made absolutely no sense, but he was performing for an audience of one.
So when you're saying here's how he's breaking it down to Trump and getting rational with them. I'd like to believe that. I just don't know if that's the case because there's lots of evidence that would refute that over the last year.
>> Bet, you know, tried to punch out Musk.
I heard he's beating up on Hasset. Uh my guess is that Bent's going to muscle himself in here.
>> He's been good at that >> and he's going to try to help get a resolution here. We'll see what happens.
Where are rates at the end of the year?
>> Wait, it's funny that you say that. On Monday of this week, I think it was at the Semaphore conference, Besson actually said maybe rates don't need to get cut right now. And I was like, did I hear that right?
>> Well, because they've got no vote. Even Even the governors that they put into place, Chris Waller said, I'm sorry.
Look at the data. I have to agree with chairman pal. If you if you looked at the Fed minutes and the discussion in the meeting about lowering rates, nobody wants to lower the rates. So what is percent going to say?
>> Yes.
>> I'm talking about end of the year. What do you think happens?
>> I really don't know. I I I mean I really don't know. In part because how much longer are we going to get the data? How much longer are we going to trust the data? And now you could argue we may need to recalculate reformulate the way we measure certain things. Right? The fact that every single month we have giant revisions to the jobs number could tell us maybe we need to change how we're measuring things. But I don't know where rates are going to go. I really really don't. You >> I think they're going lower.
>> I hope they are.
>> Yeah. I think they're going to go lower because I think once Worsh is in the job, I think he's got an Ozie to Trump for at least one, possibly two 25 basis point cuts. And if he doesn't do that, there's going to be holy hell to pay.
And so he'll just go ahead and do that and he'll figure out a way to coax and strongarm the board of governors into it. And if he picks up pal's seat, it'll be a lot easier for him.
>> Do you think Kevin War is going to be such a Trump yes man, though? I don't. I think the first two decisions will be Trump. Yes. Like is what I think. Then he's going to be more independent than that after the first couple of decisions. That's what I think.
>> You're probably right. But I think you like a lot of people are like, "Oh, the war is going to be over." The war is not like the trade war, right? And when when Trump wanted to say like, "Okay, maybe I'm not going to do tariffs here or tariffs there." Every other stakeholder in the trade war was like, "Yes, please.
Let's not do this."
That's not the case with the war in Iran, right? So, so he can BS Maria Border Romo on Fox News and say like the war is basically over. The war is not basically over. Maybe it could be.
Right. In the last week when when Iran realized their ultimate power, which was the power they have over the straight of Hormuz, Trump BSes us and says, "Oh, there we're going to work on maybe co-running the straight of Hormuz. We're going to we're going to collect that toll together." Where there's absolutely no evidence backing that up. I hope that your optimism is right that oh the war's almost over. Maybe it is, but I think day in and day out there's evidence that to the contrary and and more concerning, we're not dealing with a rational actor, right? Iran and their regime, which has not gone anywhere. If anything, they've gotten more draconian. You've now got a supreme leader who lost his father, who lost the rest of his family, and he he shares the same political ideals. And it's a country that has proven itself to say we don't mind crushing our own people and our economy. I I think saying the war is going to be over is easier said than done.
>> Well, I just want to stipulate that I think it's going to be more complicated than that. I think it's going to hurt the economy more, but I think it's going to get offset by these corporate profits and the capex cycle.
>> And I think so the poor people are going to get hurt and the richer people are going to ride the market is what I think.
>> I think you're right.
>> So, we'll see. But listen, you are awesome. I appreciate you coming from the Trump Hotel or the former Trump hotel in DC and I was going to put my sunglasses on because the glint coming off the gold in that room was quite distracting during this podcast.
>> Well, I'm in DC for a conference, but I'm also in DC because come June, I'm leaving the 11th hour on MS. I'm staying at the network, but I am launching a morning show and a morning show that's going to focus on money, power, and politics. And while you and I don't do a lot of TV together because 11:00 p.m. is past your bedtime, we know at your advanced age, you need that beauty sleep. But come June when I launch this morning show, I sure hope you're going to join me.
>> Such a takedown. Let me just pick myself up off the floor.
>> Cuz sometimes when people wonder who's better, New Jersey or Long Island, they need to get reminded. It's New Jersey.
>> Okay, just remember the Statue of Liberty's ass is in your face. We get to see her face. Don't you forget that. I told John Bonjovy that one night. Shut him right down. Okay. She's breaking wind in New Jersey. That's all I have to say. Take care, Stephanie.
>> Adios. Thanks for having me.
>> All right. Lots of love. Okay. We will be back next week with Catty K. Thank you guys for joining the rest of Politics US. If you want to be a founding member, you can sign up at the restispoliticsus.com to be a founding member. And Stephanie, whether she likes it or not, you will be back. Stephanie, >> I look forward to it, my friend. See you.
>> All right.
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