This MAY Will Seriously Be DIFFERENT...

Added: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to Weather on the Go, all your weather coverage. My name is Hunter. It is the last day of April. It's Thursday, April 30th, 2026.

[00:00:09]Hopefully everybody's having a wonderful Thursday, a wonderful last day of April, and a wonderful week out there as well.

[00:00:15]Make sure to like this video, give it a thumbs up, share it, and subscribe to the YouTube channel. It's all free to do. Doesn't cost a penny, a nickel, or a dime. And you get the latest weather coverage across the United States, southern Canada, and the tropics. In today's forecast, we're going to be going over your May outlook from May 1st through the 31st, giving you a diagnosis on the temperature trends week by week, the precipitation trends week by week, and what you can expect overall throughout the month of May. If you have any comments, questions, or concerns, jot them down in the comments section down below. Without further ado, let's get to the forecast details. Looking here at April, we have seen actually a pretty warm April up to this point across much of the lower 48, excluding portions of Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and southern Canada where it has been a little bit more on the chilly side. And the reason being is we've had a lot of cold fronts dropping south out of Canada, giving a more cooler air mass further to the north. A lot of ridging across the eastern US, especially earlier on during the first half of April. That's kind of what has fed into our warmer April than normal. I know a lot of us are cooler now, but when you average out the whole 30-day a period of April, it is much warmer across much of the lower 48. We look at the water temperatures here offshore of North America. And the coolest water temperatures are currently across the northeast coastline, mid-Atlantic coastline over here in the Atlantic. The southeast coast has obviously been a little bit warmer because of the drought conditions out there. And then the Gulf Coast, especially coastal Texas, those water temperatures are very warm. And then look at this. This is a hallmark of El Nino. You look at the East Pacific and those water temperatures are much above average across the Baja here and coastal Mexico, even coastal California all the way up the shoreline to the west coast to British Columbia. It is well above normal with those water temperatures. And you can see the Great Lakes have also been a little bit below normal and that's because of our frequent cold fronts that have come down from Canada, keeping the Great Lakes water temperatures rather cool for this time of year. Looking at precipitation, it's been a very active April across portions of the southern plains, the Midwest, the Great Lakes region, and up into interior Northeast where we have seen relentless periods of showers and thunderstorms, severe weather events.

[00:02:41]Very dry across the southeast coast, and that does continue at least for the next couple of days before our pattern does flip. And then you can see the southwest obviously is a little bit drier. A little bit wetter though in early April especially in the Pacific Northwest did give us some nice moisture supply up there as well. And you can see how much above average we are running with precipitation. Some areas a good foot above a sk ahead of schedule for rainfall here from Michigan into Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, eastern portions of the plains down there into the Texas Hill Country.

[00:03:15]And you can see where it's been drier across the Tennessee Valley in the southeast along the Gulf Coast there and then a little bit of the Pacific Northwest coast, Seattle down to Portland. Been a little bit drier here for April. So here's what to expect as we go into May. This is the first week of May starting tomorrow going through May 8th. And you can see a dominating ridge of high pressure across the western coastline of British Columbia and western Canada. What that's going to do is we are going to see downstream a trough that's going to be spinning here for the first week of May across southeast Canada of Ontario and Quebec and the Great Lakes region. And that's going to usher in the northwest flow off of Canada. And we know that in April that was a colder flow. So, what we can expect as we go into the first week of May is, yes, a colder flow into the eastern United States here with the coldest of our air in the upper Midwest, Southeast Canada, and the Great Lakes where frost and freeze risk quite honestly start this period here over the next few mornings going through this weekend. So, if you have any sensitive vegetation further to the north, I think you may have to bring it indoors or cover it because it could be severely damaged by frost freeze risk over the next few mornings. While the Pacific Northwest is a little bit drier, we showed you that over the past few days and think it's going to trend a lot warmer. Drier ground heats up faster than a wetter ground. So Oregon up into Washington, Idaho, Montana, up into Alberta and British Columbia. Going to be a lot warmer here for the first week there of May. And we look at precipitation. It's a drier trend overall for much of southern Canada and the lower 48. Why is that? Because we have that ridge parked over the Pacific Northwest and into western Canada. And the air flow around a ridge has to go clockwise around it. And that water from the east Pacific, that's our moisture source. And it has to go all the way across Canada diving down. But by the time it gets down to the Gulf Coast, it's going to be interacting with the subtropical jet, which is helpful to getting moisture into critical areas of the southeast, including the Gulf Coast regions up the East Coast. So these are areas that quite honestly need the rainfall. Now, with that said, even though it's drier in the Midwest, I do feel this is a wonderful pattern for the farmers the first week of May getting out planting the crops and the soybeans, the wheat, and the corn in the middle of the country. Now, as we go into week two, this is May 8th through the 15th, and you can see that ridge that was originally the first week of May into the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada is now going to start to shift a little bit further inland. So now kind of centered across the Rockies and nudging its way over there toward the Midwest with a little bit of lower pressure and you know complements of the subtropical jet underneath of that from Texas to the southeast coast and then up the east coast to Maine. Little bit of a trough feature here in the Gulf of Alaska. And that is very interesting as well because as you look at the temperature pattern, I think we're going to start to see warmer temperatures with that trough in the Gulf of Alaska shifting the ridge further east downstream. And those warmer temperatures are going to start to infiltrate more of the western US, the Rockies, the West Coast, maybe even parts of the northern plains, upper Midwest. And the coolest of our air with more cloud cover and active weather with a subtropical jet will be featured across Texas, the southeast, Tennessee Valley, and then up the east coast towards Maine. And that's exactly what we see. You can see it's still a drier look across the majority of the lower 48. It's not bone dry in really any one location, but it's a lot drier still for the uh corn belt here for farmers to continue to plant into week two. And then you can see the subtropical jet picking up that moisture and putting it over critical areas again of drought.

[00:07:09]The Gulf Coast, the southeast coast, and then up the east coast to Maine by the the 8th through the 15th of May. How about week three? Well, we don't see much change really, but we do see a little bit stronger of a ridge. I think the ridge gets a little stronger out west and is centered more across California, Sacramento Valley, uh, Nevada, over Las Vegas there, and then into portions of Utah and Arizona. And then downstream, we're going to see a little bit more northwest flow there in the upper Midwest. And you can kind of see a messy temperature pattern week three. So, this is between the 15th and the 23rd of May. A lot warmer underneath that ridge there. I think California, Nevada, and the Southwest really going to start to warm up in week three of May. Still pretty warm in the Pacific Northwest. Also warmer than normal in the Northeast. But in between here across the Mississippi Valley and down into the deep south, we're going to be a little bit cooler than normal. And again, that is a nod to more cloud cover and precipitation. I think we're going to see a wetter pattern across the Mississippi Valley in areas east of the Mississippi River. And then if you go west of the plains toward the Rockies and the west coast, things are looking rather dry and that is complements of a strengthening ridge of high pressure. A lot of sinking air, lots of sunshine further to the west. Week three of May.

[00:08:29]Now the last week of May, you can see this is a classic look of a weak El Nino, right? You can see got a little bit of a southeast ridge here. This could also be fed back by a drought. So this could be a little stronger than the model is showing. So, this could be a little bit further north and west, but you get the idea here. You get the the ridge also back into British Columbia and into the Pacific Northwest. Not as strong as the trough there in the Gulf of Alaska. And then you see a trough feature here into Southeast Canada, Great Lakes. And that is going to be fed by the subtropical jet kind of ripping through the middle of the country. And you can see what that does, right? You can see the ridge giving us warmer temperatures further west in including the Pacific Northwest again. And then you can see east of there, we're going to see that subtropical jet ripping through the country. A lot of cloud cover again, a lot of precipitation. And I feel this is going to cool our temperatures off east of the front range and areas towards the Mississippi River, the Ohio Valley, and the Northeast the last week of May between the 23rd and the 31st. And I do feel severe weather is going to be a big factor the last week of May from the central plains into the southern plains including the Red River Valley here, the Arletex and even into the eastern portions of the Rockies in the front range there. Eastern Colorado could go big with severe weather and even up into Wyoming as we go into the last week of May. So that'll be something to watch. Overall, when you look at all 31 days of May here, the 1st through the 31st, the trough here in Southeast Canada and Great Lakes going to be very important driver in our weather forecast with constant northwest flow giving us that cooler Canadian air down into the United States with a ridge parked over much of western Canada and the Pacific Northwest the majority of the month. And that's also helping to drive this pattern. So if you look at the temperature pattern average over the 31 days, it's likely to be a warmer May in the west and that includes western Canada all the way up over here to Saskatchewan into Alberta into British Columbia, much of the Rockies and West Coast warmer. And then you look east and it's much cooler May I do feel across the plains, Mississippi Valley, including the Midwest and the Deep South. And then areas in the Southeast, Ohio Valley, Northeast, Southeast Canada, Ontario, Manitoba for the most part, and Quebec are below normal with temperatures. Precipitation, I do feel the subtropical jet, especially the second half of May, is going to be a lot stronger as we're getting into weak El Nino status. And you can see we are going to be featuring more of a subtropical look to our precipitation pattern as wetter conditions are favored down in the southern plains along the Gulf Coast, southeast coast. Very important there in May. And then we got that rain moving up into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Drier, but maybe not bone dry across the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies here in Montana, the northern plains, the Dakotas in Nebraska, and then the upper Midwest.

[00:11:30]Again, it's not a bone dry look for May.

[00:11:33]We're going to see timely rains here, but I do feel that we're going to see a drier slot for farmers and agricultural standpoint to get out into the farm fields here, especially in early May, planting those crops out there. That is very critical. So, thank you all for watching. I hope you did enjoy a detailed breakdown of the May forecast.

[00:11:50]Come back tomorrow. We're going to have your summer forecast out for you here on May 1st. A lot of great videos coming up. We do daily weather forecasts across the US, southern Canada, and the tropics. And guess what? Tropical weather season begins tomorrow on May 1st. So, we'll start covering that in detailed videos as well. So, thanks for watching. Like this video, give it a thumbs up, share it, and subscribe to the YouTube channel. It's all free to do. Doesn't cost a penny, a nickel, or a dime to get the latest coverage across those areas. Thanks for watching. Stay safe out there, everybody. And have a wonderful last day of April. See you all in the next video.