New Tropical Storm Underway, Dangerous Impacts Likely • 20/07/26

[00:00:00]Hi everyone, and welcome to this updated video. It is Monday, the 20th of July.

[00:00:06]And we're going to be talking about the latest for the developing tropical depression in the northern Gulf. You can see it right here. Some rotation is very apparent as well.

[00:00:18]So, this has prompted a tropical storm watch for sections of the Gulf Coast of the states. So, we're going to be talking about that. And elsewhere, though, across the Caribbean, a few thunderstorms have popped up this afternoon in sections of Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and then towards the southern Caribbean, the southwest.

[00:00:40]And even for northern South America, it's been active. For everywhere else, it's been pretty hot and dry today, as many days have been for the most part. But, let's talk a bit more about depression number two.

[00:00:52]As you take a look at the satellite imagery here, the closer view, we can see the rotation.

[00:00:58]And the center of it is somewhere right in here. And then we can see that counterclockwise spin. So, winds within an area of low pressure rotate in a counterclockwise fashion. So, we've got all these outer bands, these feeder bands of the system moving into Florida. Even southern Georgia as well. This has been helping to influence some thunderstorms and some instances of some heavy rain.

[00:01:25]So, even though that means the center of the system, rather, is offshore, we can see that impacts are definitely far away from it.

[00:01:34]Eventually, though, as the system continues to drift mostly west, other areas are going to be feeling impacts from it. And right now, it is kind of struggling because, as we can see, it doesn't have the best satellite presentation. This isn't screaming tropical storm.

[00:01:50]And why is that so? We're going to be talking about that momentarily. But first, we're looking at the updated cone forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

[00:02:00]So, here we can see that tropical storm watch, which is highlighted in the yellow shading for parts of the Florida Panhandle, coastal Alabama, Mississippi, and the southeastwardly most section of Louisiana. So, uh the system is eventually expected to become a tropical storm and over the next 2 days, it could bring tropical storm impacts to those areas, those gusty winds, even a bit of storm surge for immediate areas due to onshore winds.

[00:02:28]And then that heavy rainfall is going to be a problem as well as it could trigger some pretty substantial uh flooding that could be life-threatening. So, please stay updated with your local weather service over there uh in the states if you're being impacted by the system.

[00:02:42]But, once it makes contact with land, the closer it is to land, it's going to struggle more because it needs to be over those warm waters to kind of hold on to intensity or even strengthen a bit, but it is encountering some hostile conditions in regards to those upper-level winds. As I said, we'll look at that in a moment. But, once it moves inland, it's going to weaken. As you can see here, we could see landfall on uh very early Thursday, and then by later on the day, we can see the D here.

[00:03:10]That represents tropical depression intensity, so it's going to weaken. And then it the center will likely be very close to land, which would further disrupt uh circulation. So, we wouldn't see much strengthen uh between Thursday and Friday.

[00:03:23]And then another landfall will be possible in Texas. Once it moves in, it's likely to dissipate thereafter. As you can see here on Saturday, it's likely to become post-tropical, represented by the circle here.

[00:03:37]Uh that isn't that solid dark color pretty much. So, that clear circle with the D indicates a post-tropical or potential tropical cyclone. So, yeah, that is what is expected of the system. But, for right now, it is sustaining at winds up to 35 mph, so it has strengthened a bit.

[00:03:55]And then it is accelerating to the northwest at a very slow pace till some weak steering currents, so only moving at 3 mph for now.

[00:04:05]And in regards to the sea surface temperatures, that is very much favorable for the system to strengthen as we can see for the northern Gulf. All these different red shades even some pink, so temperatures around 30° C or higher in a few spots, so that's no problem, but as those thunderstorms develop higher up in the atmosphere, there are those upper level winds. Now this is shown on the graphic here. The red lines indicate unfavorable or stronger upper level winds. Yellow my yellow lines rather mean neutral and then the green lines mean favorable. So right now let's zoom in here. So a little bit pixelated here, but we can see the system right in this area. Now if you look very closely, you can see some arrows coming in from the northeast. So these are the stronger upper level winds. We can see the red lines, some yellow lines, so the wind shear is kind of strong, which is the reason as we go back to the satellites here.

[00:05:02]Well, this one rather, we can see that most of the convection, most of that action lies to the south of the center because those winds let me get rid of these here. So those winds are coming in from the northeast. So that's helping to displace convection mostly to the south of the center of the system, so this is also a factor which prevents it from intensifying much. We kind of have an exposed low-level center right here.

[00:05:32]So eventually though some intensification is expected, the system may have maximum winds going up to around 45-50 mph and then those gusty winds especially in the areas where there's a tropical storm watch, which may eventually upgrade to a warning.

[00:05:48]Uh there could be, you know, some down trees.

[00:05:51]So, uh that could result in power outages, and a very weak structures could also sustain some minor damage.

[00:05:59]So, definitely something that we're going to be keeping a watch on over the next couple of days.

[00:06:05]And as it relates to the tropics on a whole, right now we can see that uh there are a few tropical waves out there. One is in the Well, headed to the central Caribbean right now.

[00:06:16]And two are out here in the uh tropical Atlantic, not currently affecting anyone.

[00:06:23]So, that's what we have going on, guys.

[00:06:25]And the final thing we'll look at today is the rainfall forecast over the next day.

[00:06:30]So, in the northern Gulf, in the vicinity of that system, there's likely to be additional periods of some heavy rain. The heaviest rain will be offshore, of course, the center is offshore.

[00:06:40]But, some uh substantial rain could definitely continue moving into the Florida Panhandle, going up to southern Georgia, even southeastern uh Alabama could experience some of that heavy rain. And then eventually, the rainfall threat will shift further to the west as the system drifts further to the west, as well.

[00:06:57]As for the northern Caribbean islands, let's take a look at the forecast here.

[00:07:01]So, it's not going to be very active over the next day. Just a few showers could move through uh the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica. Even some additional thunderstorms will be possible in a few spots.

[00:07:13]Likewise, Hispaniola going to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

[00:07:17]Some scattered showers will be possible across the Lesser Antilles.

[00:07:21]Very little chance of rain for the ABC islands, though.

[00:07:24]And then for northern South America, lots of atmospheric instability remains.

[00:07:28]So, through the Guyanas, Venezuela, Colombia, and even towards southern Central America, it will be pretty active. We're seeing those solid red shadings there, indicating rainfall amounts of around an inch or potentially higher.

[00:07:41]And as we head more towards the burgundy, the purple, even that pinkish shade in, those are much higher rainfall amounts. So, the significance area of rainfall will be that developing depression. And then once it reaches tropical storm threshold, it will be acquiring the name Bertha, which is the second name on the list for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Oh, just by the way, if you're hearing some background noise, there's some construction happening close by.

[00:08:10]So, yeah, that's what we have going on, guys. That's what I wanted to bring to your attention in today's update video.

[00:08:16]We're mainly focusing on depression number two.

[00:08:20]And nothing crazy going on for the rest of the Caribbean and surrounding areas.

[00:08:25]So, I'll continue to keep you posted as necessary.

[00:08:28]I do hope you found this update to be informative as well, but if you should have any questions, you can feel free to drop them in the comments. I'll get to you when I can.

[00:08:36]And remember to always be weather-wise.