Stock Market Crash Catalyst Nobody's Talking About

Ajouté : 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]Stocks continue to rally. However, is this about to come to a screeching halt as we have two major catalysts that will hit the markets this week? And I'm going to show you guys under the hood. The stock market is starting to show signs of weakness.

[00:00:16]Now, as we come look at the first major catalyst this week, right, starting off on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., we're going to be getting the core CPI price index. Is it once again going to show that inflation is on the move up? Because when we look at the last CPI report that came out, notice we jumped from.3 all the way up here to 0.9. And just like we talked about during every CPI news release, I want to remind traders that right there in the BLS's own report, sampling error in the CPI. The CPI is the statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error. So basically, they're letting us know right off the rip that regardless of what the number is, there could still be an error in the report, which I don't think is going to catch too many people off sides. But recently, we've been seeing stocks like MU have massive moves on the way up. Micron was up on Friday 15.49%.

[00:01:11]And this is after it's already had a massive rally on the way up. Even if we were to look go ahead and look from the lows over here in April, right up here to the highs, notice Micron is up 140%.

[00:01:24]We come over and look at AMD also a massive move on the way up, up 11.44% on Friday. We take a look at Intel.

[00:01:33]Intel up 13.96% on Friday. So, we're seeing a lot of big big movers out there. But what if I told you guys this could all be in jeopardy?

[00:01:45]Especially stocks like SanDisk and Micron because on Friday, SanDisk was up another 16% making another new all-time high. Now, if we look from the lows on March all the way up here to the high, we can see that SanDisk is up 204%.

[00:02:02]And what's really frustrating out there, at least for me, is when I talk to a lot of traders out there saying, "Mike, it's just going to keep going up. it's never going to pull back. Like this is a new norm. Like you just expect a 200% gain in stocks in a matter of roughly two months. So when we look at one of the other catalysts that we have that's going to be coming out, we want to look at this article right here. Samsung Electronic Union says to intermediation over wage dispute. I think this mediation is going to take place on the 11th or the 12th, something along that those lines. and a court is going to rule if the workers can actually go on strike on the 13th. Well, that brings us into this week and depending on how all this shakes out, that could have some huge implications for SanDisk, Micron, and a lot of the other high-flying stocks that have been out there recently. We come over, look at the fear and greed index. We're sitting over at greed, and I'm really surprised with all the bullishness we've had in the markets, we we have not seen the fear and greed index swing all the way over into extreme greed. Now this week we also got the most recent investor sentiment survey. We can see the bulls just barely notched up two ticks from 38.1% to 38.3. The neutral category basically stepped up from 22.2 to 28.7 and the bears pulled back a little bit from 39.7 to 33%. And that could be because the bears are probably running out of money at this point as the markets only seem to go up. Now, as we've been seeing the S&P 500 making new all-time highs just like it did on Friday, we come over and look at the RSP. Now, RSP is going to be the equal weight S&P 500. Notice on Friday, basically having an inside day was not going ahead making new all-time highs, showing us that we're starting to get a little bit of a separation from reality.

[00:03:56]Now, speaking of the stock market and overall economy, we have a lot of things to contend with. For instance, now we have the Nacho trade which basically stands for not a chance her moos will open. And you know, it's very creative how some of these people write these articles and such and come up with these fancy sayings. And I will agree if this rates do not open in the near future, that's going to be problematic. But even more problematic is we come right over here and we look, we can see chapter 11 bankruptcy filings have increased 42%.

[00:04:30]So, we have the stock markets, at least, you know, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ making new all-time highs. Why do we see bankruptcies so much on the rise? Well, part of that is going to be because of inflation coming out, which we do have a inflation report coming out on Tuesday.

[00:04:46]And then after Tuesday, on Wednesday, we also get another measure of inflation with the PPI report. I want to warn you guys about this real quick. Normally the CPI will move the market one way. The PPI will move it the opposite direction.

[00:04:59]So we want to be on the lookout for that play this week, which we'll talk about that more this week during the live stream. So if you guys don't want to miss that next time I go live, make sure you subscribe, you have the bell notifications turned on for all. Now we also come over and look at the man that is famous for calling every single bubble out there, and that's going to be Michael Bur. Michael Bur says, "The market today feels like the last month of the 1999 to 2000.com bubble burst." And now, unfortunately for me, I did not start trading the markets until 2005. I really wish I would have been trading during those times so I can have some historical perspective. Is this exactly what it felt like back then? I don't know. If you guys have were trading back then, let me know in the comments section down below. Does this feel like it did back then? like Michael Bur is saying, please let us know in the comments section down below. So now we come over look at this spy real quick on the weekly chart.

[00:05:54]Let's just do a basic candle count. We have one, we have two, three, four, five, six consecutive weekly candles on the way up. Look at the MACD indicator down here at the bottom. Is it making new highs? As we're making new all-time highs in the market, absolutely not.

[00:06:10]Now, this red line represents where the prior all-time high was in the market.

[00:06:14]We have simply broken out from that level. We have failed to come back and test it. If we look over here on the composite profile, where does a majority of the volume start to come in? It starts to come in just below the prior all-time high in the market, which could also act as a magnet attracting price back down towards that area. Now, we look at this on the daily chart. What do we have? Well, we just simply keep making highs. And this has been very, very impressive. If we were to measure right down here from the lows at the end of March all the way up to Friday's high, we can see the S&P 500 is up just over 17% without any type of pullback.

[00:06:50]The best that we have was where the market slowed down right here, but we we were never ever able to get any type of correction yet. Now, I have went ahead and adjusted the Fibonacci retracement levels and we can see now that 38% level comes right in line with the prior all-time highs in the market. Now, if I were to go ahead and we come look at how the CTAs are positioning, and I want you guys to pay very close attention, the white line is going to represent the S&P, the cash market. And notice it's screaming new all-time highs. But then look down here at the green line, the machines, how are they positioning? It is not rallying way up there like it was, you know, before we actually had this little bit of a market pullback, which at this point in time, a pullback just seems like some type of old folklor because nowadays it seems like we'd never get a pullback. But right here, this chart is still showing me that the computers are not are not truly buying into the all-time highs in the market.

[00:07:43]But then we come over, look at the GEX levels, we can see right now for the SPY, we are still in positive gamma. We scroll down here, let's just see where a majority of the gamma is piling up at.

[00:07:52]And we can see right here right around that 740 strike price. And as I look at this, I would clearly see that we have more gamma exposure to the upside than we do to the downside. But if we can start breaking really below 735, then I do think we have a possibility we could run down towards 710. Well, if we look at where do we close on Friday, we close at 737. The high water mark or all-time high in the market is 738.08.

[00:08:18]So, we only missed that high gamma exposure level by a measly two points.

[00:08:24]Now, will we be able to go ahead and push up there on Monday or earlier this week? Or are we going to simply come crashing right back down? So, if we do start breaking down a little bit, look where that 710 strike price comes in.

[00:08:36]That's going to be right where we have this kind of high volume node right here within this whole entire low volume low volume area on the composite profile.

[00:08:45]That will be a high probability target.

[00:08:47]We also have, you know, a few gaps up in this area which still need to come back and get filled. And we have that very large gap all the way down here which still has not come back and been filled just yet. Now we look at this on the 30-inut chart. What do we have? Well, on Friday, another massive gap on the way up, but then we just had an upper level consolidation after gapping up. We turn our attentions down towards the MACD indicator. We can clearly see that we are not making new highs and we're actually making a lower peak in the MACD indicator even though price has come all the way up here making new all-time highs. Now, if you've been thinking about getting a prop room space right now, My Fund and Futures having a major deal. For the builder plan, you get started for as low as $75. Simply use code Mike. And don't forget, you can always go to propermike.com.

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[00:10:04]So now when we look at the S&P 500 real quick and we see how strong it's actually been, I want to go ahead and look at a couple things real quick. The first one is how the market perform on Friday. All four of the major indices were up. Now the Dow Jones was barely up, only up 02. But look at how much the NASDAQ was up, up 1.71%.

[00:10:26]S&P was up84%.

[00:10:29]But then we look right down here, advancing issues versus declining. We can see right there that we actually had more issues declining on the day 48.1.

[00:10:38]So yes, it may have felt good if you're on the bullish side of the market, but this is a warning sign if stocks continue to rally to the moon. You want to see a broader participation. You don't want to see more stocks going down as the indices are going up because it'll only take one headline to quickly unravel a lot of this move. Now, we look at the sectors out there. We can see on Friday technology and basic material were the two big leaders out there. But then even if we look at the oneweek performance, technology and basic materials also were the best performers out there. Now thankfully for the week energy was down which should be good for us the consumer. However, it's going to take a little bit before we start seeing any relief at the pump or that inflation that's been quite sticky on the way up.

[00:11:23]Now also if we come down here real quick and we look at the breath. I want to go ahead and look at this real quick. And this is going to be S&P 500 stocks above the 20-day moving average. Look at where we're at right now. We only have roughly 42% of stocks above the 20 period moving average. If we drop down and we actually look over here at the 200 period moving average. Notice we we have 52% of stocks above that. So, as we're up there making new all-time highs in the market, why is this not screaming up as well? Why are we having so few participation in the market? Then we look at stocks above the 50-day moving average and you can see we only have 51.19% of stocks above the 50-day moving average. And again, this is very problematic as we're looking at the stock market just screaming in new all-time highs. Look what we have right over here. High, lower high. Are we about to break and have a lower low come all the way down here and fill this gap that we have down just below us? Now, before we look at the futures markets, let's look at these two other charts real quick. Chart on the top will be the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and then we have the transportation index on the bottom. Well, look up here. The Dow Jones made a new high relative to last few weeks out there. But look at the transportation index. It keeps coming right back down trying to retest this breakout point. So, we're not getting confirmation of the move up when we look at these two charts. Then we come over and look at the spy, the chart on the top versus HY, which is going to be high yield bonds. And notice as the SPY made new all-time highs, is HY up here screaming up making new highs? No. Not even making relative highs above the recent peaks that we've even had, which again is another troubling sign out here for the markets. Now, does that mean on Monday or Tuesday we don't push higher?

[00:13:13]It does not. But in my personal opinion, I do think we are on borrowed time. Now, if we come over, look at the futures markets real quick. What do we have?

[00:13:20]Well, let's start off on the 4 hour time frame. You can see that we closed very close to the top of the range on Friday, and we're going to have two consecutive untested point of controls. We have the one from this week at 7419.50.

[00:13:33]Then we have another one down here from the prior week at 7169 and a quarter. We had a 228 point range on the week. Now, if we can get above value area high at 74 27 1/2, then we start to come back down. then I want to look to target that point of control.

[00:13:49]But even more importantly, we can target any of these additional high volume nodes on the composite profile. Now, if you're looking for an opportunity to buy the market, then what I want to look for is right down here at this low volume node 7323. Do we get a push down towards that area and then we get some type of intraday reversal pattern, candlestick pattern, and then we simply rocket on the way up? When we zoom this out, don't forget where a majority of the volume is. As we look at the composite profile at some point, highly probable, we will come back and revisit those levels. Now, when we come over and we look at the daily volume profiles real quick, we have an untested point of control from a few days back at 72.88, which we still have not come back and tested. But look at the volume profile shape on Friday.

[00:14:31]Kind of a Pas and Paul shaped profile.

[00:14:34]We had a majority of the volume being built out at the top of the range. And what this is going to signify to me is not necessarily bullish or bearish unless we get below value area low, which is going to come in at a price point of 7410. We get below that, then that's going to open the door that we're likely going to explore the lower third of the range. And for me, that would be somewhere around 7365.

[00:14:58]We start breaking that, I want to look for the market to come down towards the lows on Friday and then potentially down towards 72.88.00.

[00:15:06]anything below that price point, that's when I really want to focus over here on this chart on the 4 hour time frame with the weekly volume profiles. Now, let's not forget we are still in earning season with a lot of companies set to report this week. Now, we come over look at the NASDAQ real quick and look at how the CTAs are starting to position. Now, the NASDAQ is a little bit different than the S&P where the S&P had this move up the green line and a little consolidation here. It basically stayed at that consolidation. NASDAQ on Friday did start to break back up a little bit to the upside. And we look at the NASDAQ on the weekly chart by the via the QQQs.

[00:15:43]That was a big bullish candle on the way up. We can see just a monster move. But look down here at the MACD indicator. Is it making new all-time highs as the market is? Absolutely not. We also have 1 2 3 4 five six consecutive up candles in a row which could lead to a down week coming up in the very near future. Now, prior all-time highs in the market is a key point I do want to focus on. But also, if we were to grab the Fibonacci retracement, measure from the swing low right up here to the swing high. Now, the 38% retracement will come in about 65211. The 50% level is going to come in right near where the prior all-time high was in the market. Now, if we're going to go down there, we got to think, what is the catalyst going to be that the war resumes between Israel, Iran, and the US? or is it going to be the CPI report coming out this week that really tinks the market? Now, we look at the NASDAQ over here on the daily chart. MACD indicator is making new all-time highs.

[00:16:40]The MACD indicator is making highs as the market was making new all-time highs. NASDAQ QQQs on Friday was up 2.34%.

[00:16:50]And again, that 38% retracement is very, very low in relations to how far away prices is at this point in time. from the closing price on Friday down to a 38% retracement would be roughly an 8% pullback in the market and we can't even get a couple point pullback it feels like at this point in time. Now, as we come over look at the gamma charts real quick, notice we are still in positive gamma and we look at where all the gamma exposure is. Look, we have a slew of gamma all up in this area and really right up here right around 710 or so is the massive gamma exposure to the downside. We have a little bit, but really we have a whole bunch up here.

[00:17:29]Now, what I do want to keep an eye on this week is do we start to build out more gamma to the downside. And if we can basically get back below 710, which on Friday we closed at 711, that could open the door to the market pulling back a bit, maybe coming down and starting to fill in some of these gaps that we just simply left behind. On the 30 minute time frame, we can see the MACD indicator starting to roll over. even on the intraday basis set up a little bit of divergence as the NASDAQ basically closed at session highs. But look at this gap right here. Here's one gap.

[00:18:00]Here's two gaps. Here's a third gap. And that's just in a matter of one, two, three, four trading sessions. We can see where we have three gaps which have not been filled. Now, we look at the futures markets here in a few moments. You're going to see a pattern that you most certainly want to pay attention to this week. Now, one of the things I want to focus on in this chart real quick, we start trading below value low. I want to look for the market to come down towards gap support at about 700.06.

[00:18:25]Beyond that, I want to look for the market to come all the way down here, fill in the gap at 695.01.

[00:18:32]Anything beyond that price point, we want to come back over here, refer to the daily chart, see if we can go ahead and fill some of these additional gaps that we've had that just simply have not been filled at this point in time. Now, we come over look at the NASDAQ futures markets real quick on the 4 hour time frame. This is where the pattern really comes into play. We now have one, two, three, four consecutive untested point of controls. You might say, Mike, we can have 5, 6, 7, 8, nine. I'm going to tell you guys real quick, we only get four consecutive untested point of controls on a weekly time frame anywhere once every 12 to 18 months. And I want to show you guys the last time I seen this similar pattern, and that was over here on the S&P 500. If we zoom this back here just a wee little bit and let me scroll this out, we can see we had basically one, two, three, four consecutive untested point of controls.

[00:19:24]And look at the move that we've had since we've been able to undo those untested point of controls. So, are we going to be into something very similar out here? Now, I do want to heavily focus on this point of control this week. Now, will I be very upset come the end of the week that I kept trying to short it? Maybe. But I really have to look for opportunities where I can target that area. 28,680.

[00:19:48]Is going to be a very high probability target. But I do want to warn you guys real quick. We do have a couple minus development areas on this chart. So if the market comes down towards 29,22 or so, we want to look down in this area.

[00:20:00]Do we start to reject and come back up and then maybe set up some type of double top pattern and then ultimately flush down, hit the point of control and work down towards some of these lower levels? Now, quite often when we have four consecutive untested point of controls, we'll fill two of them within one session. Well, since we're dealing with a weekly volume profile, one session would be one week in time. But I got to be honest with you, I very seriously doubt this week we come all the way down to 27,000 to 111. I just simply do not think that's going to be the case. But we'll discuss that a little bit more during the live streams and on the next update video coming out on Wednesday. Now, if we come over real quick, we look at the daily volume profiles. What do we have?

[00:20:40]On Friday, we basically went up all of Asia, all of London, and all of the New York session just simply up up and away.

[00:20:47]Now, we had value high about 29,361 and a quarter. If we can trade above that Sunday night or even into Monday and then we start coming back down, I want to target the point of control. I want to target value area low and then beyond that I really want to look for the market to come all the way down retest the lows from Friday and then work our way down towards this untested point of control. Now, if things really start to deteriorate this week, even if we don't fill this target out here on Monday, which I seriously doubt that we will, this is going to be a high probability target out here that for this week for me as well. But my my bigger thing that I really feel better about is going to be looking to target the weekly untested point of control.

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