Disney’s decade of stagnation highlights the high cost of prioritizing ideological signaling over core business fundamentals and shareholder value. The massive capital drain into streaming reveals a leadership team that has fundamentally lost touch with its primary market and operational strengths.
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Deep Dive
Disney Stock Is STUCK in a DECADE-LONG FUNK! Investors Are SICK of Chasing of Social Causes!
Added:The Walt Disney Company stock is not hot. It's been stuck in the same place for about 11 years. Now investors, well, they're getting weary and they're ready to take it out on Josh tomorrow. Some demanding that Disney drop Disney Plus, ESPN, and Hulu and just get out of the streaming game altogether. But, never fear for it turns out there's even more bad weather on the horizon for the house of mouse.
Attendance is crashing at Walt Disney World.
Folks and friends, it's time to unfurl yet again the truth with a capital T and show the world indeed what's really happening in entertainment. Welcome back to the Pro Channel. If it's your first time here, just know the water is fine and we find it divine when you click the like button and dare I say even join us with a subscribe. They call it a subscription. Folks, that's the prescription for Hollywood. We'll fix them together. All right, let's dive in.
The conversation begins [music] right now.
The Walt Disney Company has a stuck stock. That's the latest we've got for you and it's not the greatest of all time. No, Disney is performing terribly even if some don't want to say so. How long has Disney been sitting at somewhere around $96.54?
Well, as opposed to the rest of the market, Disney has been here, ladies and gentlemen, if we go back in time, we have to go all the way back to January of 2015.
This stock, except for when Bob Chapek took over briefly, that's the Bob Chapek rise. See that right there? Bob Chapek, except for that Bob Iger has been stuck and now Josh tomorrow the same. Ooh, there's red. At 96, somewhere thereabouts, for 11 years. And now, investors are unhappy.
How unhappy are they? Well, they're so unhappy that according to Bloomberg, we've got major, major analysts saying Disney needs to drop all of their streaming business.
And that that might actually cause a 40% increase for Disney. Now, we've covered this, folks. We're not going to recover it, but I just want to say, when they start talking about, "Hey, Disney, you need to get rid of Disney Plus, Hulu, and ESPN?" We are at a time now where investors they they're they're done with this. They're sick of this. This is not how other companies perform. In fact, folks, if we were to type in the S&P 500, let's see here. S&P 500, let's try this, okay? S&P 500 maximum.
It looks nothing like Disney. This is just the top 500 companies publicly traded in the United States. If we go back to 2015, January, it was at 1,000 it was under 2,000.
It's at 7,500.
This is what Disney should be doing. If Disney had just stayed with the rest of the market, Disney would be at like $300 per share.
Investors are sick of this.
So, Josh D'Amaro has a huge problem on his hands. Now, we're finding out the date has been revealed for Walt Disney's third quarter 2026 financial results.
I think it's going to be a very hard meeting for them. It's going to take place August 5th. Of course, we'll cover it live 8:30 a.m. Eastern. It'll be on Valiant Renegade first, then go over to us.
It'll be archived after the broadcast concludes. Yada yada yada, you get the idea, but August, we're here now. This is the honeymoon is over for Josh D'Amaro, and hard times have arrived. How bad is it?
Well, at the same time, investors are telling Disney that they need to drop all of their streaming which they've invested something like a hundred billion dollars in?
Take a look at the wait times for Disney World, which we correlate with crowd levels, aka attendance, aka tickets sold.
We are currently in July.
This July is right now, according to thrill-data.com, the lowest month we have seen since the return of the lockdowns. Do you remember when California and and uh Nevada and some of the places where New York were re-locking down in 2021 for just about a month or two. You remember what that did? That that cratered Disney, of course, again. Well, that little mini lockdown that happened, we have to go back to then to find a month that has been this uncrowded. Now, Disney World has been the thing that's been sustaining Disney throughout all of their difficulties. When Snow White bombs at the box office, when Tron Legacy does not go well, what saves Disney? What keeps them going? When Disney Plus loses Mando, when they throw everything away with Gina Carano, and this happens, what saves Disney?
Disney World.
Disney World is by far the biggest profit generator for the Disney company, and now what we're seeing is a collapse because I'll show you one more thing about this.
If we go back to the prior least months, they're always September and October.
September and October.
Never July.
If July is already down here, we are still 2 months away from whatever the low is going to be.
Are we going to be back in the pandemic levels of crowds this year?
I don't know, but if that happens, this company's in deep trouble. We'll start off with Marvel on this one. Marvel, your thoughts on where Disney is today and and the fact that investors are now freaking out. I I don't know any other way to put it when the investors say, "Jettison Disney Plus."
>> I think I know what you're going to say.
>> Yeah.
>> is a freak out.
>> When I when I read that Hollywood Reporter article about, you know, that Wall Street advisor who's basically saying, "Jettison this and you'll see a 40% bump in your stocks." And and the more I thought about it, the more I was like, "Wow, that actually makes a lot of sense." Because they could pay to, you know, produce all these this programming and then license it out to Netflix and clean up. And then Netflix assumes all the risk. It would be perfect. The problem here being that they would never ever do that because at this point it is they would be admitting making a mistake, Pro. And as we as we all know, the Walt Disney Company has never made a mistake ever in its entire history. So, yeah, they're not going to to hit the eject button on Disney Plus. I think it's a I think it's a prestige thing for them, but they have to do something because since they started this Disney Plus experiment, their stock has remained completely stagnant. It has not grown or shrunk with the market. It just basically stays right where it is, and that's a huge problem for investors.
Like, obviously, when you're putting together an investment portfolio, you're looking for stocks that will grow over time. This is not a stock that grow and it's had 11 years to do something meaningful, and it hasn't done anything.
So, yeah, if if I'm an investor, I'm I'm not looking to get Disney. No financial advice given here, but you know, it it's a it's a it's a dead stock.
>> Steve, the other thing about this is so this was a huge gamble by Bob Iger. They gambled a hundred billion dollars, we estimate, in total investment into Disney Plus, Hulu, and ESPN.
Um the fact that the stock has stayed in the same place essentially, and we'll we'll get that back up in just a second, the stock.
But the fact that it stayed there, that doesn't mean that it stayed at the same place actually.
Because with inflation, and there's been tremendous inflation over the last 11 years, with inflation, what that means is that the stock is actually worth far less than it was.
It's just hidden because inflation doesn't make you realize each of one of those dollars is worth less today than it was 11 years ago. So, this is actually much much worse for Disney than it than it seems immediately.
>> Yeah, I mean, I I'm not the investor type. I've I've never been into that because >> You did own a pig You did own a piggy bank once when you were 5 years old.
>> It's true.
>> Did not go well for the piggy.
>> No. Um but like when I when I see it, I just think this is this is insane because as you said, like inflation is a real thing. So, like it is literally worth about three quarters less than what it was 11 years ago At the same dollar amount. Which is quite insane. But my my question is for for you guys is at what point are the media or or the investors going to start asking legitimate questions? Because they never asked Bob Iger the real questions. They never actually pushed him on the things that were breaking or falling apart. But is that going to start to change now that's Demaro? And is Demaro going to be the actual fall guy? Because >> Marv's got a great answer. Marv's got a great answer for this.
>> I mean look, they they couldn't ask Bob Iger questions because Bob Iger was curating the questions. They were pre-selected questions.
>> Oh yeah, no, and that I remember that.
So that's that's the key. But I mean like the other three investor calls throughout the year. Where the the Goldman Sachs guys would all call in and they're ask their superficial questions.
Was Iger curating those questions as well? I don't think so.
>> so, right? Probably like didn't we believe that they that they had pre-approved the questions or was that not >> So let me let me put it this way. So if you go back in time like six, seven, eight years, Disney was so confident that when they would do their shareholders meeting, they would they would like get a giant venue. And all the top brass would be there on stage and the shareholders would come and it it was like a giant celebration.
And then by the by the time that they ended this, all the questions were not just curated, but were being read by like a robot AI system. And that's because about three years ago Bob Iger started getting questions that he didn't like and he didn't know how to answer. And it was obvious. And we were on with Valiant Renegade when it happened and we said we can't believe, you know, like Bob Iger, you know, audibly angry and confused and stumbling and no idea what to say. And a lot of that centered around uh what they had done with uh Florida and and the attacks that they made against the state of Florida and their efforts to undermine legislation that was at least ostensibly, you know, intended to to protect kids. So uh the company's made a lot of huge mistakes and I I I want to show this to you, Cara, if you if you don't mind. So, I've showed the S&P 500 versus Disney and it's dramatically different. And so, if you just invested anything else, although we're not giving financial advice, anything else, you'd be much better off. But, what if you picked a winner?
Cara, if you picked a winner instead of Disney back when we're talking about, Nvidia was worth less than a dollar and today it's worth $212.
Nvidia uh in this time frame uh the same time that we're looking at Disney where it's been stalled, Nvidia is up 530,000%.
So, if you picked a winner, you'd be doing really darn well. I know Nvidia is probably the most poignant example I can bring up, but this is why investors are tired. This is why investors are saying even even the big ones, even the ones who invested uh their the 401(k)s in the Disney and and all that sort of thing, they're even fatigued with this saying, "Okay, something dramatic has to change. We We can't keep floating you."
>> I mean, that's just what happens when you have stocks, right? When you open up the company that way, that's that's the risk. And when you're not making money, yeah, you're going to get asked the tough and hard questions and you know, trying the whole thing with um Double Bogey Bob like trying to change questions so that way he could save face on the stage is absolutely ridiculous because that doesn't change the the questions that people want to ask or the answers that they're looking for, right?
Um and I think part of the reason the stocks are are diving the way that they are is is is I I hate saying this phrase just like I hate saying modern lens, but this is a multifaceted issue, right? Because a lot of those dips that we see in the stock are also when they did mergers and if there's one thing that usually happens with mergers, um the stocks will go down because they're finding all the weeds that the other company that they merged with are are popping up in problems that they have to solve and whatnot. So, they usually end up making an investment in a in a in a bad product that they have to figure out how to make money from at that point. Um but you've also got obviously from what you're sharing here, we have lower attendance. Uh I don't see as many children in this. Yeah, okay.
Yeah, I always point this out every time. I'm like, "Where are the children?
Where's your future customers at? Like how are you going to bring more people into the park that aren't just going from one bar to another bar to another bar to another bar?" Cuz that's really what the Oh, children, okay. Um because that's really my question because if if you want to keep thriving, you have to make things that people want to go and enjoy not just for adults, but kids, too.
And I think I think it was the Jonas who mentioned earlier that when the live-action Moana came on, like his kids had zero interest in it.
>> Yeah, and I think Moana 2 killed the interest in in that franchise.
Marvin, I want to go to you for the final word on this. Uh the thing that has saved Disney month after month, year after year, and at least kept them treading water been two things. [clears throat] Walt Disney World and Disney cruises. Now, Disneyland does okay, but nothing is on the level of those two things. Disney World and Disney cruises has given investors hope, whereas the streaming stuff is not. If we're starting to see the fall of Disney World in terms of terms of attendance, and I think we are, what's going to happen with this company now?
>> [clears throat] >> I mean, if they're going to have to change the way they do things in the parks. They're going to have to do something to bring the average Joe and Jane back into the parks. Um you know, possibly bringing back some of the things that that people that some of the reasons why people are uh you know, missing it. And and at the end of the day, that might include lowering some of the prices and making it more affordable to go because you can get that volume in there and end up making more money with lower prices. So, it's just about whether or not they're willing to backtrack, which historically, Pro, not their strong suit. They do not like to backtrack on a decision once it's been made. But again, this is this is a new you know, for the first time in well, second time technically, but like really the first time in you know, 20 something years, we've got a new captain at the helm of the ship. And maybe Josh D'Amaro will have a little more humility than Bob Iger did. Let's hope surviving a CEO is important enough to him to get away from the modern message and switch back to what people really want. And trust me, it's not Tiana's trash mountain, it's not destroying rivers of America, it's not live-action remakes that look like they were muddied in the waters of CGI and you can't tell what's going on on screen.
Just give people what they want. Just give them Luke Skywalker. Just give them cool superheroes. Just give them kids content like Bluey that doesn't >> [music] >> divide families and force folks to talk about things they don't want to with a 3-year-old. Disney, this is easy.
Investors, this is simple. Get back [music] to what works. Get back to Uncle Walt. Well, you've made it to the end of the video and that means you are a true pal of Pro. Thank you so much for [music] watching the entire thing, ladies and gentlemen. And we ask that you consider clicking that like button, drop a comment down below, let us know your thoughts. And remember, folks, we've got more content yet on the way.
The drive-bys can't handle what we have to say, >> [music] >> but we'd never stop not for a minute because we want to win it for you. Until the next time, keep learning, [music] keep growing.
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