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Tropical Depression 2 About To Rapidly Intensify! Major Gulf Impacts Expected!
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What is up, weather enthusiasts? I'm your host, Pat's Path Predictor. Let's get right into the weather. Well, tonight we have a bit of a different stream for you than what I'm sure a lot of people were do were doing. Um, we're talking about tropical depression 2. And for I know there before I get into this, can we just talk about the fact that we have almost 100 people in the stream right now that is already tuned in ready and hyped up to talk about this. Thank you so much for showing out right here.
It means a lot. And we also before we get started, we have to acknowledge this. Kerbal uh uh Kerbal for uh for life, I believe it is. Yep. Donated $20 before the show even started saying going to be an important update. Lot to break down and talk about. Amen to that.
Thank you for the $20 donation. That means a lot for sure. Um I know some people are asking about uh this being a Triple P show. The answer is this is this isn't going to be on the Triple P show uh catalog. This is a kind of I wouldn't necessarily say this is an emergency stream, but this is a more serious stream talking about weather because of what's going on because of what the impact tropical depression 2 and also because of the rapid escalation we have seen in the models. So, with that being said, I'm just going to go ahead and uh I'm just going to go ahead and first uh get to sat uh show the satellite imagery real quickly before uh and p and then start introducing some of the callers we have in the show right now. So, this is what we got for satellite imagery. Things are definitely getting interesting. I'll go ahead and refresh this for you guys right here.
But, uh but before we get into all the fun stuff, by the way, seizure warning to those prone to flashing lights. We're going to be definitely talking about that. We have a few people that we're going to be introducing to the show. I'm sure a lot of you guys remember them from last night, but we are going to go ahead and get started. We have Logan Rounds aka Tropical Surge on the call.
Logan, say hello.
>> Hello everybody. Also, Py to share your screen.
>> Oh. Oh, yeah. I'll share it with you guys. So, >> what is up everybody? Tropical Surge here and welcome back with Past Path Predictors Tropics team.
>> All right. Yeah, we also Yep. All right, we have LTW in the call. LTW, say hello.
>> Hello.
>> We have Delta in the stream. Say hello, Delta.
>> Hello, everyone.
>> And we have Trevor. Trevor, say hi to everybody.
>> Hello.
>> All right, let's go ahead and get into this because we have a lot to dissect tonight. And considering that we now have over 100 people five minutes in the stream that are uh wanting to talk about this and going, "Pat, what the heck? Uh what was going on? Pat, what are we talking about?" Guys, you uh uh guys, we're going to break this down for you guys. So, we're just going to go ahead and dive into it. So, here's the situation that we have. This is tropical depression 2. It was designated a tropical depression 9 hours ago, actually, by the National Hurricane Center. We have the latest public advisory for you guys, too. Tropical storm conditions possible in the Florida panhandle by late Monday. Maximum stained winds of 30 mph. Minimum central pressure has been decreasing a lot since last night. Last night it was,5 now it's down to 1,08 mibars at the latest advisory. It is currently stationary.
So, it's pretty much stalling over in parts of the eastern Gulf. And the minimum central pressure based on the buoy is 1,08 mibars. We were talking about that before the stream started. We have a quick discussion that we're going to go over. They're mainly holding it at 60 mph in terms of their max intensity, although I do believe that can change if as time continues to go on tonight. So, that's what we have for the uh for that.
We'll go more in depth with the uh NHC stuff a little bit later. Just giving a brief exposition. Here's the cone for you guys. The cone has been shifting further and further and further to the south over the last little while. As you can see, this system is expected to organize, develop into a tropical storm, potentially make landfall in the Mississippi River Delta, then just move just south of Louisiana before making landfall in Texas, potentially around the Houston area. So, if you're tuning in from that area, you're going to want to pay attention to, in fact, if you're tuning in from anywhere on the Texas coast, from Brownsville to uh to Bowmont, you're going to be want to wanting to watch this very closely. So, we're going to want to take this very seriously. We're going to be talking a lot about what's going on, and we're going to be giving live analysis as to what's been going on. So, that exposition out of the way, I'm going to go ahead and turn it over to uh some of our callers so they can give their input and give their analysis right there. So, we'll go ahead and get let's go ahead and get started. Um, who would like to get started and who would want to go ahead and uh talk first about Tropical Depression 2?
>> All right, I'll go first. Um, >> all right. The first thing I'm noticing is that pressure has indeed been falling especially recently at a more rapid rate.
>> All right.
>> Uh I've been looking at some buoys per se and I've been noticing pressure falling. Uh convection has been increasing overall albeit there's still a dry pocket to its west. However, that dry pocket is completely surrounded by areas of moisture once again. And considering that we have not entered our DAL maximum tells me that this thing has some pretty good potential. As you can see on water vapor, you can see now that the dry air is basically closed in into some convection that surrounds the entire system completely. There's also some shear from the north, but it doesn't seem like it's going to impact this thing too much. It did also do a center relocation to its south southeast. Actually, >> I would say that this may have moved far enough away from land to where it has more time over water and the uh potential for uh western Louisiana into eastern Texas has substantially increased in my opinion just due to the fact that I this is something I've been seeing since yesterday. What I think has happened is that this thing did a center relocation influenced by the ridge that is to its west and caused it to move south because due to the nature of ridge, if you're west or if you're east of a ridge, you're going to move south and then you're going to move west.
>> So given the nature of this ridge and now the fact that the ridge is also moving to the northwest as well tells me that this thing is going to move a little bit further to the south. Then it's going to move west as the ridge goes northwest and that builds eastward.
And then the other area of the other ridge is supposed to kind of back off.
So it tells me that's not going to influence and switch directions or any of that. So dominant um pattern or dominant steering should be west. NHC has northwest, but I personally disagree due to the fact that I don't think that they're seeing the the signal that this one ridge has because the high pressure is going to get stronger because the low pressure is getting stronger. It's basically an a feedback loop, as I call it, which will kind of create, as we've dubbed, the avalanche effect where basically one small change can lead to such a huge outcome. And I'm noticing some convection over it at center that has been recently blowing up as a vertical hot tower or VH as we've been calling it.
>> Yep.
>> And uh seizure warning.
>> Yeah. Thank you very much.
>> Uh the waters are still about near 30° C and expected to stay over warm waters the whole entire time because the Gulf has extreme ocean heat content. It's about to move over the loop current. And I think that sums up everything I've been monitoring so far that has been really noticeable. Aside from the two facts later on that you'll see models have been uptrending this storm.
>> Oh yes.
>> Mhm. But in the meantime, I have noticed that this uh seizure warning again by the way.
>> Yeah. Thank you very much. Go ahead.
that this storm is doing what I feared, moving south and having more time over water and it's moistening its environment with mixable dry air as you call it where the dry air isn't going to stay cuz convection is going to mix it out and push it away from the system.
And I think once that happens, the storm's going to fire off on cylinder 4.
>> All right.
>> And uh that's my >> All right. Thank you. All right. Oh. All right. Thank you very much, Logan. I want to emphasize this before I move on to our next uh to our next co-host here is this is part of the reason why this dry air is not concerning me as much as it was maybe a few hours ago. You have a massive burst of convection that has been firing off across much of Tennessee and parts of the deep south that is bringing a lot of moisture into parts of the Gulf. In fact, you're starting to see a lot of it inject into there as we speak at this current point. A lot of that is going to help flush out this dry air. And I talked about this in Storms United in our Discord server, as a matter of fact, that this whole area of convection is bailing out tropical depression, too, because there is a little bit of dry air and trainment going on right now. But with this huge amount of moisture and the injection that it's giving this system, you're allowing for more convection to start firing off, more vertical hot towers to start mixing that dry air out. And when that happens, oh man, oh man, things are going to get interesting. So, we'll go ahead and turn it over to LTW. LTW, you have some things you'd like to add on.
Go ahead and give your analysis.
Not a lot of things. Uh I completely agree with what uh Serge was saying. Um this thing is kind this thing doesn't really have steering current.
It's like relative steering current is just some uh high pressures just fighting over the storm >> and low pressures which is kind of me which is forcing the storm to meander.
It's not going >> really anywhere.
Uh and yeah, dryer is just getting mixed.
You can even see it on um on your screen, Pat. Uh >> in that area on the left. Yeah.
>> Which area is it? Is it this one right here?
>> Uh no, no, no.
>> Let's go ahead and go to this. Go ahead and show me what >> is it? This area over here that we're talking about.
>> No, no, no. It's the I'm talking about Yeah, the dry.
>> Yep. You see seeing this? All right, perfect.
>> It's almost completely closed off from the center, like from the input of the dryer.
>> Yeah.
>> And that's really good for the storm.
>> And even better, it's moving south. Um meandering south I should mention >> which and if it goes west which is forecasted to do so it's going to stay over more open water.
>> Yeah.
>> And it looks like it actually has a pretty good outflow.
>> Yeah. It's starting to develop that a little bit, especially around Florida and off parts of the western half of it, too.
>> Mhm.
>> Yeah. Go ahead.
>> That's it.
>> All right. All right, LTW, thank you very much. Uh, Delta, go ahead and give us your analysis. What have you been seeing and what should we be watching out for tonight?
What what we need to be looking out for is the uh near-term convective convective behavior of tropical depression too. If we start seeing more popcorn convection, more large convective bursts like what we're seeing right now in near the center of circulation, that is just going to increase the amount of mixing of out of that drier pocket.
>> Yeah. which is going to as and then we're which is going to help ventilate this ventilate the tropical depression so that it can start building the convection. It could start lowering that those pressures which it has been slowly over this afternoon.
It's probably even the NHC has given has lowered its pressure down to 1,08 mibars which is not a small feat for a system at this stage. Every little bit counts for it.
>> Exactly.
All right. Is there anything else you'd like to add?
and the uh and the short term the shortterm uh structure of this system is going to dictate what what we're going to be dealing with in the next two three four five days.
>> All right. Thank you very much. Uh Delta Trevor, you're uh you're on the dockets.
What's your thoughts on two and what should we be looking out for?
I mainly think we should be looking out for the storm surge, including the flooding problems with this system.
Reason why I'm going to bring up the flooding problem with this is because >> one, the Texas area is very prone to flooding. That's why we like to call it the flash flood alley.
But not only that, but they've been recently hit by uh over 30 inches of rain, and we do not need any more rain over there.
>> Absolutely not. There's actually a slight risk of flash flooding from this system uh by the WPC as well. So, I figured I'd bring that out here to show the audience.
>> So, I kind of want to bring that up. All right. where if if we see something from the WPC end, it's probably going to either be a more risk of flash flooding to maybe almost a high risk.
>> Okay.
But the South Texas, the Rio Grand area, the Rio Grand Valley area and the Houston Central Texas should all be in should be precaution about this system as it is going to probably bring a lot of rain to the area that we've already experienced.
>> All right.
>> I don't for one, I don't see this system falling apart. If the NHC is gonna say that this system will strengthen a little bit more, it can. It can physically do it, but it depends on the windshare.
>> Yeah, we'll definitely talk about that, too.
>> That's all I got for this.
>> All right, Trevor, thank you very much.
All right, so let's go ahead. Let me go ahead and refresh Dapia real quickly just to kind of get the latest frame, see what how things Yep. Thank you very much. How things are progressing. Yeah, more convection starting to fire off onto the south, especially the souths southwest over here. You're noticing that convection from Alabama and Tennessee starting to creep in and help uh really start plugging in a lot of the holes with this dry air. It is it has become a little bit of an issue as of late, but it has not stopped this system from consolidating and organizing too much because you have convection starting to build up behind it. You're seeing this system starting to fight and mix all this dry air out. Heck, even in these big bursts of convection we are seeing right now, it is doing the job it needs to to keep that dry air away from the center of circulation. So that's what's going on uh with this this huge area of convection like I mentioned earlier is bailing out this system a little bit right here tonight. So definitely something that we're going to want to watch out for and pay attention to down the line to see how this is going to persist over the next few hours. Also noticing some convection in the Florida panhandle in Georgia plugging in that gap even further bringing more moist air into that region as well. So that's what we're seeing with our surface and our kind of our convective analysis. I want to go ahead and show up the track pull up the track models and the intensity models with these as well. Mainly because we need to talk about this because this has been a pretty dramatic shift over the last 24 hours. Okay. Okay. Error 404 page not found. That's fine. Here's what we have for 18Z. We were looking at the zero Z models last night. And what we had was going on was a minority of the models, mainly the Hmon Hwarf and the Halves A, I believe it was, had it moving out to the west, while the rest of them had it slowly heading towards Florida, whereas all the ensembles were saying that the system was going to head towards the west towards Louisiana or Texas. Looking at the 18Z now, almost every single model has shifted this further to the west and further to the south. Now we have a more than a likely scenario, at least it's becoming more likely now than it was 24 hours ago that the system might miss the Mississippi River Delta entirely, move south of Louisiana, and impact Texas instead. We saw this with Hurricane Hannah back in 2020 as well, so it's definitely not out of the question. And the reason we're seeing this shift is because you're starting to see that high pressure system over parts of the Rocky Mountains uh starting to build up. And you're also noticing that ridge starting to build up as well for parts of the Midwest. That ridge has been trending stronger and stronger and stronger. And that stronger ridge has been carrying the system further and further to the south and deeper into water temperatures closer to those very warm 30 to 31 degrees Celsius 86 to 88° Fahrenheit water temperatures that this is currently over at this current point in time. On top of that, you're dealing with from what I'm seeing, let's take a quick gander at our ocean heat content where this system is currently at. It's in area of about 50 to 75 OC at this current point in time. If it keeps pushing further to the south, you might be persisting in that area for a lot longer than anticipated, which will definitely help it both in the short term and in the long run as well. So, it's something that you're going to want to pay attention to. All the models for the most part with the exception of a couple of outliers have shifted this away from the Florida panhandle and towards the Louisiana and Texas coast.
But even a lot of those models are shifting away from the Louisiana coast and heading further to the south into Texas, which if that were the case, in my opinion, and I'm sure in the opinion of my peers right here, this would be a worstc case scenario due to the fact that it's going to be over warm waters, weakening shear as it as the shear starts to pick up in Florida. It's going to be moving away from that wind shear and the dry air that would be there is getting pumped out by the increased convection that is going on tonight in parts of Tennessee and other parts of the deep south. To others uh people on the call right now, what are your thoughts on what we've seen with the models, especially the track models, and what are your thoughts on what we could be seeing going forward?
All right, I'll go again. Go ahead. Um, definitely the signal is there basically as I said earlier.
>> I got this.
>> Um, yep.
>> Yeah. So, basically, um, hold on just a sec.
>> Take your time. Take your time.
>> All right. Just doing something behind the scenes, everybody.
>> Perfect. Anyways, >> yeah, basically though I basically what you called out on that ridge I completely agree with into the fact that this thing >> is mixing out dry air pretty well. I would say you got convection to it souths southwest. You got convection to its northeast or east northeast, excuse me.
>> Yes, >> excuse me.
You also got convection to its northwest and some very slight spotty um convection to its west, albeit weakening and poor likely because it's mixing dry air out. So, it's kind of battling it out and destroying the moisture but leaving residential >> residue of moisture left behind, which is moisting in its environment, which is something I've been saying since about 2 days ago now. And the other people on the call can back me up on this. Once other people go, they can say for sure.
Um, yeah, basically I think that this thing for now is caught between uh steering currents. It's going to be the dominant one's going to be the ridge to its west and that's going to build to the northwest and build east. And uh yeah, I'd say that the hurricane potential has gone up substantially in my opinion.
>> All right.
>> I think it is much higher than what most people would probably think for now. I actually think there's a pretty good chance of this being a hurricane. I say like 80% chance this thing can become a hurricane.
>> Okay.
>> If it stays further, it's been Thank you.
>> Thank you.
If it can stay further south like it's been.
Those are my thoughts.
>> All right. Okay. Okay. LT, go ahead.
>> Um, yes, I do recall sir saying that first of all, and he's right about that. And on the track malls, um, if you could pull that, please.
>> Yes, sir.
Um yeah. Uh compared to like last time we were talking about this, there seems to be more of a consensus.
Um and even um a more consensus on maybe a uh a do west like not due west from like where it is but like going north and then uh hitting Louisiana. But minor models are going south of it, which would be interesting, which I could see happening in maybe the longer run, depending on how long it stays without like a viable steering current that will drive it.
Um, but yeah, we got to watch uh some of these other malls cuz we don't know if they're a going to have a point or b um could have a point uh or be in the middle.
All right. Is there anything else you want to add with that? Nope.
>> All right, LT, thank you very much.
Delta, what are your thoughts on what we've seen over the last 24 hours with these track models and overall what I said tonight?
All right. We're starting to see in the uh the track models now since we got a low-level center, we're starting to see better consensus on the general track, >> which is not going this is not going to be a Florida or like a Pensacola or a Mobile uh type threat. This is going to be a Louisiana and south of Louisiana.
ma majority track. It this also means that it could it it may make landfall in Louisiana.
>> Mhm. But and that would also determine how much of a impact it's going to have down the road because some of our models are showing it make landfall then coming back off of the Gulf Coast back into the Gulf before heading back towards uh towards Texas.
So, and that's going to determine the potential intensity in that case.
Also, it could miss Louisiana entirely, >> which would be worst case scenario for Texas because that is going to allow uninterrupted uh access to those warm Gulf waters and as long as the environment uh allows it and allows for strengthening this, I don't see why this could not become a hurricane.
All right. Thank you very much, uh, Delta. Um, Trevor, what are your thoughts on the latest track and how the models have been reacting?
My opinion on this, I think it there's actually I'm gonna agree with Delta and Logan on this that this thing has a chance of being a hurricane and kind of getting some Hurricane Barrel and the one the one hurricane from 2020.
>> Hurricane Hannah.
>> Yes, I'm I'm getting those kind of vibes with it right now. All right.
>> So, I I think that this could become maybe a 75 mile per hour hurricane if it continues to go a little bit more south.
But yeah, again, I have to we have to see what the spaghetti mod are going to do first.
>> Yeah.
>> What is going to do first, too?
>> For sure.
All right. Um Yeah, that's definitely interesting. For sure. What I will say with this system right here is I would like yeah it definitely gives me Hurricane Hannah vibes for me as well.
Primarily because of this is this is eerily similar of an environment and eerily similar of that time of year where this happened in a eerily similar setup too where Hannah wasn't forecast to do too much. Next thing you know, it had a massive burst of convection that mixed out all the dry air. And what do you know? It becomes a high-end category 1 hurricane. Makes landfall near South Padre Island in Texas. And yeah, that was one heck of a storm to track in that time period. But what I will say, oh, I will say is I want to go ahead and pull up some of the I want to pull up some of the intensity runs now and talk a little bit about those because these are definitely getting more interesting.
Okay, this is fantastic. Let's go ahead and pull this up because the 18Z runs are coming out with the intensity.
Definitely an uptick from what we've seen previously from the 12Z. The Hmon and the Hwarf, the two more aggressive ones. Majority of the models keep it around tropical storm strength or so, although some of them also do have this system making landfall in Louisiana at this current point in time. So, that's definitely something that we're going to want to pay attention to. But I also want to go ahead and show the ensembles to everybody. Um, I'm not sure if the 18Z euro is out yet. No, it is not. But I do want to pull up the zero Z, the 6C, and the 8 and the 12Z European ensembles for a lot of people right here just to kind of give you an idea of what we are looking at and to give you an idea of how this system has evolved in the last 24 hours. This is what we had at the zero Z data earlier today. Okay, I showed this on my video earlier today, but here's what we had going on. A lot of ensembles going on across much of the Gulf. Um, a lot of these ensembles made landfall in Louisiana. Some of them had it making landfall in Mississippi, too.
But also, a good chunk of them had them staying outside of Louisiana, staying outside of the Mississippi River Delta, and really ramping up in the intensity.
Look at the power numbers that we've seen from the Zerz ensembles. Just to be clear, this isn't gospel. This is just one spread of ensembles right here. This is the European. We're showing you other ensembles tonight to give you an idea of what the context is going to look like.
But that said, look at what we had with the zero Z going on as we went out to 108 hours. This is by the time we get to the morning of the 23rd. So that would be uh that would be, I believe, Thursday morning according to this run. Look at some of the power numbers right uh right here. Obviously, I do not think it's going to get up to some of these numbers, but 943, 950, 962, 971, 969, just consistently across the board on all these ensembles that had it missing uh Louisiana and not making landfall in this area. So, that's what we're looking at. This is the main split we're seeing now. Instead of a split of is this going to Florida or Louisiana, this is a split of is this going to make landfall in Louisiana or is this going to miss Louisiana and hit Texas instead at peak intensity or at least peak power potential intensity I would say. So that's what we're paying attention to for right now. Here's this that's the zero Z. Here is the 6Z run. To give you guys an idea, the power numbers for the 6C definitely for a lot of these ensembles really ramped up. I'd say there was definitely more so of the ensembles that had it staying out to sea than it did heading towards landover here. That which is definitely been very interesting. We've noticed that shift with from the zero to the 6C, from the zero to the 12Z definitely more interesting. not seeing uh the big power, not seeing a as much. I would say a lot of it is shifting further to the south, but ultimately what we're looking at uh right here is kind of a lot of the ensemble still having this impact parts of southern Louisiana around the Mississippi Delta and then potentially heading back into the Gulf and then hitting towards Texas. While the ensembles that do stay over the water really start to ramp up with the power numbers in particular. So overall what we've noticed is what uh is over the last 24 hours the power numbers with the ensembles that stay over the water have really gone up whereas the impacts of this potentially heading towards Louisiana do keep those power numbers down. So ultimately what we're looking at here is are we going to see a tradeoff? Are we going to see a situation where this system is going to miss Louisiana, tap into some very warm waters off the coast of Louisiana and Texas and start rapidly intensifying potentially after it moves o around the Mississippi River Delta? or is this going to be a situation where it makes landfall in Louisiana, keeps it kind of weak if it stays in land, reemerges in the Gulf, maybe tries to reorganize and make landfall in eastern Texas at a weaker intensity. That's the main split we are seeing at this current point. and confidence isn't particularly too high at this current point in time, but based on what we've seen with recon data with the uh center of circulation shifting a bit further to the south than what we were originally forecasting, the former of a lot of this staying out away from Louisiana and out into into sea has definitely grown a bit more in in terms of confidence over the last 24 hours.
So, that's what we're paying attention to right here. I know some people in chat are asking about New Orleans. I'm going to go ahead and emphasize this to you right here. If you're tuning in from New Orleans, regardless of if this stays out to sea or it's or makes landfall, you are still going to get impacts whether it's from the outer bands or from a bit deeper into the core of the center. But I will tell you this, if this does impact the Mississippi River Delta, it overall is going to maybe be a little bit worse for you guys, but overall for for the system, it's going to remain relatively weaker. Albeit the impacts especially around the bayus and uh areas in southern Louisiana definitely will not be fantastic especially with the potential flood threat that we are watching out for over there too. So that's kind of my take on this right here. Regardless of whether you are going to get impacts get a direct hit in New Orleans or not, you're still going to get impacts from this.
And that's kind of the scary situation.
And I would say uh that a worstc case scenario in my opinion would be this system stays out to sea mainly because it's going to be close enough to the coast where it's going to be generating impacts and the stronger the system gets I would argue especially in southwestern Louisiana and starting to go into southeastern Texas around Bowmont, Houston, Galveastston, those impacts are probably going to be worse overall primarily due to the fact that it's still going to be intensifying and staying over water while doing that on top of running away from some strong wind shear that's going to be moving into Florida. So, that's kind of the next point I wanted to bring up and I'm going to go ahead and turn it over to our callers. What are your guys' thoughts on what we've seen with the ensembles and in your opinion? What would a worst case scenario be? And in terms of both impacts and in terms of intensity.
All right.
All right. Lo, uh, Logan, you want to go ahead?
Okay, everybody's muted.
>> Um, all right.
>> I'm here, but I'm kind of not time. I'll be back.
>> All right, LTW, go ahead. All right, LTW, go ahead.
Um, so yeah, a worst case scenario hands down is staying over uh like avoiding a landfall in Louisiana. I do agree like some of the numbers are just laughably hilarious. Yeah.
>> 939 922. Yeah, mind you that 922 is um a cat five.
>> Yeah, we're not looking at that anytime soon. Um yeah. Um I could see like in the mid to low 98.
>> All right.
>> 980s.
>> Mhm.
>> For peak.
Um due to it due to it kind of being hindered by little dry air. Um uh it also depends on the size of the storm, how quickly it intensifies.
>> Yeah.
>> Um and how major is the shear.
It's not just um oh there there's uh good sea surface temperatures. It's it's going to go this. No, you got to look at um other stuff.
All right, >> that's it.
>> All right, cool. Delta, what do you got?
>> I would say the worstc case scenario impactwise, it would be a track that scrapes and parallels the northern Gulf Coast. It's not it's not a path that's this that takes it back over water >> because we all know that wind is wind can be dangerous but the but when it comes to tropical cyclones the biggest killers is water rain flooding >> and with Texas and Louisiana they really don't need that much more rain to have really bad flooding but if the system that The worst case scenario intensitywise would be one that misses all land masses until it hits either central the central coast of Texas or the southern coast Gulf Coast of Texas.
In that case, you're going to have you have the potential for a well, what what the models are showing uh a very strong hurricane, probably borderline major hurricane landfall, which would be more of a wind threat.
But the biggest threat overall at the moment that I see playing out is going to be flooding rain in areas that do not need the rain.
All right. Yeah, absolutely. Um Trevor, what are your thoughts?
>> If it plan, if it wants to impact this basically those areas and if it continues to track, I could see it maybe scraping a little bit of Louisiana >> and then going back out into sea.
>> All right. Okay. And then eventually ending itself in uh Texas.
>> All right. Cool.
All right. Is All right. Is Is Logan done taking care of his stuff or uh or no? Do we Does he is he still taking care of his uh uh of what he's doing?
All right. Okay. Just thought I'd ask before I started before I started moving on to some stuff as well because there's people in chat that have been asking me to look at some of the the FM FNV3. So, we're going to go ahead and take a look at that cuz definitely kind of interesting. Uh right here, let's go ahead and I want to pull first the 12Z and then the 18Z uh just to kind of get some context to see what the shift has been like. So, here's what we have for your Google DeepMind right here. This is the Google Deep Mind AI model right here. So this is what we got at the 12Z.
The 12Z models very concentrated. A lot of them had it making landfall in Louisiana and then shifting pretty much hard to the west southwest over here and then moving over to uh parts of Texas as around either a around a moderate to strong tropical storm to weak hurricane at most. But the majority of the models kept it further out uh further and clo away from uh the deep tropics, the deep gulf and closer to the coast over here at 12Z. So that was definitely an interesting swing where you had the system making landfall in Louisiana and then heading towards Texas and from there on the models are a bit more scattered from anywhere from Houston all the way down to south of Corpus Christi.
So that's what we have for the 12Z models right there. Let's show you the 18Z for some context. And things are definitely getting interesting. The 18Z models are definitely swinging further up to the north initially, but then you're noticing a pretty significant dive down to the south according to some of these models, while the majority of them keep it further to the west and have it heading towards Louisiana. But you do h are you are noticing a kind of a situation here where whe either it makes landfall briefly in Louisiana, especially around the Mississippi River Delta, or it it misses it entirely. And then from there on out, you're definitely noticing a stronger signal with the Google Deep Mind. Potentially several hurricane scenarios with this right here. I I can count almost 10 of them, as a matter of fact, in this ensemble track that we're watching right here. several ensembles well into the 980s as well as it's making landfall in Texas and it's a bit more concentrated too south of Houston around the Corpus Christi area in particular. So you're definitely going to want to pay attention to that as well. So you're going to want to pay uh keep a very close eye on this. So it seems to me that at least the Google DeepMind is starting to subscribe to what the European ensembles are starting to forecast. Albeit the power with the European is definitely quite a bit ridiculous to say the very least. I want to show the GFS just and the actually before I do that I want to show the European AI to see what's going on with that to see how conser how conservative it is compared to its uh counterpart. So here's what we have with the European AI right here. Definitely an interesting situation uh that we're paying attention to at this current point. Mainly that split is still there. Some of the ensembles have it making landfall in Louisiana. A lot of the weaker ones have it heading towards Florida and Alabama.
I think given the building up ridge, we can start to discount that just a little bit. Albeit, we don't want to rule it out entirely. But ultimately, you're noticing the majority of these ensembles of the Euro AI either make a very clo a small pass towards the Mississippi River Delta in Louisiana or miss Louisiana entirely and head towards Texas with some of the European AI runs a bit further to the south than what we've seen. I will say definitely interesting situation. Majority of them keep it around strong tropical storm strength at this current point in time. So, you're going to want to pay attention to that at this current point. So that's the European AI that we're seeing with this.
Let's also show you guys as well the GFS the GFS ensembles as well. The GFS has generally been the more most conservative out of the models right here. I'm not relying on it too much, but I am just showing it just for context sake for you guys. So here's this here's what we got 36 hours out.
GFS keeps it relatively weak. A lot of these are 109,0008 mibars. The main problem is we're already at 1,08 millibars with the latest public advisory from the NHC. So, the GFS has definitely been having a hard time catching up with this. Also, this is a global model as well. The grid spacing isn't fantastic either. AT&Tz's definitely uptrended quite a bit.
Majority of them have it making landfall in Louisiana, however, and keeping it around there or Alabama or somewhere in the Gulf Coast. So, that's what you have with the 18Z. Let's look at the the G the the GENC as well. This is what we have for the 12Z. Let's see if we can pull up the 18Z. 18Z is definitely interesting to say the very least. The majority of the 18Z ensembles on a lot of these models are actually keeping it south of Louisiana and having it heading towards Texas.
That is interesting. And it kind of reflects what we're seeing with the track models uh that we've seen. Let me go ahead and refresh this real quickly.
Okay, it's not going to uh do that.
Wonderful. Here's what we have the track models for you guys. It's definitely interesting because a lot of the hurricane models are kind of subscribing to some of these ensembles too. So, it's going to be a situation that we are going to want to pay attention to as well. Before we get to the operational models, is there any comments from everybody in the call?
I mean just Oh, seizure warning.
>> Thank you.
>> Uh I mean just wow.
>> Yeah.
>> What a shift over the last 24 hours.
>> Indeed.
>> Yeah. Let's go ahead and switch over to the operationals because we had a bit of a disconnect yesterday about this system. E this system with the ensemble screaming for tropical development.
Well, we have development now and then screaming about the strength and the operational runs had yet to catch up.
Well, let's go ahead and start looking at them and we'll also pull up some hurricane runs as well. So, here's what we have with the 12Z European. It's definitely starting to catch up a little bit more with the ensemble runs right here. Although, it does have it around tropical storm strength and further up to the north. It's generally kind of in what I what I would say kind of it's definitely on the northern side of the ensembles I will say with the European kind of having it making landfall in Louisiana and dissipating after the fact. So that's definitely an interesting situation that we're seeing with there. We're going to see if we can if the 18Z is coming out just yet. If if it is fantastic. If not I can understand why. Oh it is. We have the 18Z out for the European Ensemble right here. Hope not the ensemble, the operational.
Hopefully the ensembles will show what's going on with it as well in a little bit of time. But here's what we got for the Europeans 18Z data right here. It looks to me that it's mainly slowly heading towards I That's interesting. I'm taking a quick look at that.
Okay, it's mainly staying It's mainly staying. Okay, it mainly stays north and then just gets it get just just gets yanked over towards Mississippi and Louisiana at that current point. I think it's having a hard time figuring out where the low pressure system is, at least where the center is on this. So, yeah, that's what we have with the Europeans 18Z. Definitely compared to the 12Z in terms of the intensity, I don't think it changes that much. But yeah, we'll have to wait and see what the Z goes for cuz that gives us more observations and all of that data as well. So that's what we have with the Euro. Let's see what we got. Uh let's see what we got with the GFS. I don't think uh it's going to really show us that much uh either, but this is what we got. Okay.
Okay, this is interesting. The 18Z GFS is actually around peaks at around 101 millibars off the coast of Louisiana, albeit it does have it making landfall in Louis uh in Louisiana around uh around the Mississippi River Delta as well. So definitely on the northern side of things as well, a bit further to the north than the hurricane runs right there. Let's look at the Canadian model as well because 12Z is out. The 0 was starting to peique my interest right here. Here the 12Z is out a bit further up to the north and then it just gets yanked all the way down from uh from close to Alabama to maybe making landfall in the Mississippi River Delta and then moving south of Louisiana and making landfall in Texas as a tropical storm. Definitely was looking at that earlier as well. But that's what we had for the Canadian. Here is the icon. And I know a lot of people are talking about the 18Z icon. I am going to show it.
Yes. But I am also going to show a couple other I'm also going to show the 12Z for context and I'm going to talk about that uh talk about that first. So here is your 12Z icon right here consolidating organizing and um developing. It's already developed at this current point and it's getting yanked further up to the north near the near the Florida panhandle and Alabama before that ridge starts to set in and have it making landfall in Louisiana as a strong tropical storm. it actually moves through the Mississippi River Delta and then just stays off the coast of Louisiana. If we see that as the case, then you might have a situation where some impacts definitely are going to be there, especially along the coast. I know there is going to be a little bit of shear according to the according to the icon impacting this system from the north, which mainly keeps a lot of the convection away from the from land right here. But this system actually has it as either a strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane making landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas and then moving into Mexico and dissipating from there. So that's the 12Z for you guys right there.
Definitely a bit of an upswing compared to what we've seen with the other operational runs and it's more in line with what we've seen with our ensemble runs. Now, we're going to do the 18Z mainly because I want to see first of all, how realistic is this? And second of all, what kind of science are we looking at with this? So, here's what we got with the 18Z icon, ladies and gentlemen, having it strengthened to tropical storm strength off the Florida panhandle, moving further up to the north and kind of hugging off the coast of Florida before starting to make that push further to the south. It looks like yeah, it starts pushing it right here as that ridge starts to build up and potentially either make landfall or make a very close pass to the Mississippi River Delta either as a strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane. And then it moves off the coast and this is when it starts to intensify 988 983 if this will actually load up for me. 979. It actually gets pushed further to the south as it heads towards Texas into some of the deeper waters just off the continental shelf. But look at this.
972, 969, 961, 953 millibars as it's heading towards around the Corpus Christi area.
Yeah, this is definitely an outlier to me. I know people are definitely talking about in the in the chat. I'm seeing what the reaction is. uh right here.
Yeah, my opinion on this is I don't see this as a realistic situation at this current point in time. Okay. Uh uh at this current point in time, but yeah.
Okay. Uh but uh yeah, so hold on one sec. Yeah. Yeah, hold on one second. Yep, I know.
Oh.
All right. I think we're good. I think we're good.
I think we're good. Yeah. I think we're I think we are Okay. Yep. Sorry, guys.
Sorry, guys. We're We're back. We're back. We're back.
Yeah. Okay. It was just lagging for a second. Um I guess Yeah.
Yeah, I guess it didn't like me uh showing the icon data. My apologies.
Yeah, go ahead and refresh, guys. Ladies and Holy crap, we have almost 400 people in the stream right now. Be sure to like the stream, subscribe to the channel if you are new. The goal as always is to get more people engaged with weather. Be sure to hit that subscribe button. That would mean a lot to me. We had a big night last night on the stream for sure.
But yeah, we we're back. We're back.
We're back, guys. Go ahead and refresh.
I uh my apologies for what was going on.
So, yeah. All right. So, we're all right. So, those tuning in in the uh in the call right here, um what are your thoughts on the ensembles?
Do you think we're starting to solve this?
>> What's up?
Their mic is muted.
>> Okay. No, it's I'm I should be okay. I I'm okay >> on the on the stream. It is on the screen.
>> I hear you. I can hear you.
>> No, I'm on stream.
>> On OBS? Yeah, OBS is good.
>> No, you can hear him on stream.
>> Yeah, OBS is fine. Um Oh, am I am I muted? Am I muted? Let me see.
>> No, that's on Trevor's end. It >> just kept it further out uh further and closer away from Let me check real deep.
>> Let me check.
>> Half or not?
>> Okay.
>> Okay, never mind. It's good. Okay, everybody's good. All right, that scared me for a second. Okay. All right, perfect. Thank you. That's all I need to know. That's all I need to know. All right, so what are your thoughts on the on the operational runs? definitely starting to catch up a little bit to the ensemble. So, uh, for sure. What are you guys' thoughts on what we've seen with the latest operational?
>> I agree with that. I'd say the most likely contender still, albeit strength, no, but uh, path is the icon. Strength, I don't know.
Definitely, I see a hurricane. Almost no doubt about that.
Um, I've just had a really bad killing with this storm, more or less. Also, uh, Weather Kingdom, you are on the air.
>> Okay, >> so say hello.
>> All right.
>> All right, cool.
>> How's everyone doing?
>> Also, Pat, we peaked at 436 people watching.
>> Nice, nice, nice. Well, >> Yep. We got to All right, perfect. Let's go ahead and keep this.
>> All right. Uh, go uh go ahead, Logan.
Keep going with your analysis. I'm going to check satellite.
>> Basically, I completely agree with him.
I see Icon.
>> Yep. Go ahead.
>> Thank you, Elsie. Uh, Icon is um what I think the track will do. Strength is an unknown and that's what I have on that. And someone wants to hear LT and LT is next. So, go ahead, LT.
>> All right.
>> Yeah. Um uh so just to let you know uh the icon does wanted to make landfall uh on Louisiana.
Um >> are you >> just want that?
>> Are you serious?
>> And okay Jeez. All right. We're back. So all right.
Okay. We're we're good. Yep. The stream's okay. Stream's okay.
Stream's okay.
>> Okay, that's good.
>> We're Yeah, it just lagged for a second.
We're good now. We're good.
>> We're good now.
>> Okay.
>> Yep. We're good.
>> Jesus.
>> I just kind of want to see the loops.
It's doing right now.
>> Yep.
>> See your warning.
>> Yeah.
>> Yep. Go ahead, LT. Um yeah, it seems to like there's still convection still trying to fire in the middle, but um for the Yeah, I basically agree with what Serge said.
>> Mhm. Um the icon track is I could see it. Um but the intensity no.
Um but yeah, that's all I'm going to say.
All right. Okay.
All right. So, okay. So, All right. Def. So, we definitely All right. So, if you guys need to refresh the stream if you need uh if you need to. Um uh yeah, refresh if you need uh if you need to. Um we're on we're okay now with the stream. So, there shouldn't be too many issues with that. So, all right.
Cool. So, thank you. All right. Right.
So, LT, thanks for uh for that. Um, yeah. Yeah. Delta, do you want to go ahead?
>> Yes. I I just like to uh just make it known that I do not I I do not believe the icon.
>> All right.
>> I do believe it's track.
>> Okay.
>> I am more favorable. I I align with the intensity that the 12Z icon was showing.
I think the 18Z because it does not have data uh put into that run >> that I do not believe the intensity.
>> Sure.
>> If and this is the big if. If the zero Z shows something similar to the 18 with its intensity, then I'll start putting some some leeway into it. But I do not trust the 18Z output being going basically from zero to 100 like that. I think the 18Z icon was a bad run intensitywise.
>> Yeah.
>> All right. Thank you very much. All right, Trevor, what's your thoughts real quickly?
>> Uh, my thoughts on this is if one of these are right. Could you speak up? I could >> track and there >> could you speak up for a little bit?
>> Yeah, I can.
>> There you go. There you go.
>> Okay. So, if one of these uh bottles follows the uh any track or if they adjust it a little bit, which I did see it. Of course, I got dog. All right.
It's all right.
>> We love here, guys. We all love puppies.
>> All right. Let's get All right. Go ahead.
>> Okay, they're done working. Um, if they follow the NAC track and the icon model, honestly, it kind of is it kind of would agree with what I was saying earlier about a landfall in Louisiana and then it hitting South Texas area.
All right.
All right. All right, Trevor, thank you very much for that. Um, all right. So, Weather Kingdom's on the uh is on the stream. Um, first of all, how are you doing? Second of all, what are your thoughts on what you've seen tonight?
>> I'm doing uh pretty good.
um with the latest um I was just coming from work but I do see um not too much sign significant changes on its appearance.
>> Okay.
>> Um it's kind of holding steady with some shallow convection.
>> Okay.
>> I am seeing on radar though more and more of a rotation in near the lowle center. Okay. And I wouldn't be surprised with the recent convection that does help the development of this. Um I've been I do think that my chances from last night to tonight with a hurricane has now gone up to a 60% >> from a 20.
>> Um I even, you know, I haven't looked at everything, but I have been looking at some of the data recently in the last five minutes.
Okay, >> nothing too much has changed. I see a westward track more as of right now.
Currently, this storm is stationary.
Now, my big question is how is the dryer? Because I know Tristan came on the stream and was talking about the dry air and he, you know, doesn't completely think that this will form into anything significant.
Uh, >> I have it pulled up right here. I have it pulled up right here.
>> Oh, thank you so much.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah, there is. There's one thing that's definitely lessening is there is a coldront coming from the United States back in Tennessee and the Carolas >> and that is a resurgence of moisture. It does seem like slowly but surely the drier is continuing to be um rung out of the system. There is still drier in it, but if we do see a massive blow up of convection and a blob, then the races are on its way. There is a little bit of some talk of unfavorable conditions as it gets closer to not too confident. I want to wait Z. Um I don't know how long be live for, but >> All right. I would like to continue to watch the zero Z runs, but for the most part, regardless of anything, as I've been saying is this is going to be a slowm moving system and this is going to be bringing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, the tornadic possibility to things. um the flooding, especially in the driest areas because yeah, >> you know, three inches of rain under a rainband with a drought that hasn't rained in weeks and months, we could quickly have puddling and pawning on roadways and people does not take that with caution.
Small system, but small but mighty.
>> Yeah, >> I would say. and definitely could throw us curve balls at us. So, yeah.
>> Sure. Okay, >> that's my analysis.
>> All right. Thank you very much, Weather Kingdom. I'm going to respond to the dry air point for uh real quickly because that's the one that interested me the most. What I will tell you is I think I will agree that I I we talked with David about this last night and I agree that initially it was uh that it has kind of slowed it down in terms of its intensification uh for right now, but it hasn't really slowed down its consolidation in my opinion based on what I've seen with surface observations, based on what we've seen with pressure and what we saw with recon data earlier today. What I would argue though is the dry air that the dry air that's present is and this is kind of my response to Tristan uh kind of indirectly is is that this is very mixable dry air and you're seeing a lot of this convection even if it's light starting to mix out a lot of this dry air issue right here. In fact, we're at a situation where the dry air is almost completely plugged in, at least for right now, off the coast of the Florida panhandle at this current point in time. And the other convection that's starting to fire near the center of circulation is doing a decent job of fighting that dry air and mixing it out at this current point in time. It's going to take time, obviously. things are definitely going to need to be watched out for. But overall, I'm not uh overall, at least long term, I don't think it's going to be too big of an issue with potential de uh potential strengthening and consolidation. Maybe short-term tonight it it still might be.
But if this system starts producing convection, say in the next couple of hours, and we're already seeing signs that it is, then I would say the dry air uh uh the dry air point to me isn't going to be as important going uh going on unless it starts to unless it keeps in training uh for throughout the evening going into the morning. Seizure warning, by the way. And I'm just going to and just to reinforce that, I'm pulling up Dapia real quickly to see how things are going on the convection side.
Yeah, there are several areas of convection that are starting to fire.
Nothing too deep as of right now, but any source of convection is mixing this dry air out at this current point. It's definitely things definitely will be interesting going forward. Uh but yeah, you are actually hold that thought. You are seeing a couple of areas of deep convection. One to the northwest off the Florida panhandle and another one starting to form over here to the north as well. So, you're definitely starting to see that. But over the last 30 minutes, I'd say how many sources is this p firing off? One technically two, three, four, at least five areas uh near the center of circulation have started to blow up a little bit in terms of the convection. Those are the areas you're going to want to watch out for going into tonight. It's definitely something that we're going to want to pay attention to. Okay. Uh okay. Okay. And I'm being I'm being informed that the ZeroZ stuff is starting to come out as well. Okay. Things are definitely getting interesting here. All right. So, here's the Zero Z data. Same as the NHC's data, but here we have, ladies and gentlemen, the track models and the intensity guidance that has come out.
>> Wow.
>> And this is what we got. Um, okay.
That's our track models. Here's our intensity. Here's the track that we have for you guys right here. Um, zero Z is interesting. The halves A and the halves B want this to still hit the Florida panhandle and the Big Bend region and then move out to the Carolina coast. The rest of them want this further to the west. But what I am seeing here, I'm going to see if I can pull up the 18Z for context real quickly. Let's take a quick gander at some of this. So, what I'm seeing here, okay, let's do this.
Okay, 18Z and zero Z.
Okay, I'm looking at this slightly closer to the coast compared to the 18Z.
Some of the models wanted to make landfall in the Delta and stay right on the coast of Louis of Louisiana. Some of them wanted to make landfall in Louisiana and then just move inland. But the majority of them are keeping it out uh uh keeping it either making a landfall and then staying out and then moving back out to sea or is this going or just staying out to sea in general?
Intensity models are also interesting as well. You have Yeah, you have this one right here. You have our first hurricane model outlier uh right here that you're going to want to pay attention to.
uh right here. But overall, majority are still around tropical storm strength at this current point in time. So that's what we got for right uh for right now uh based on the zero Z track and intensity guidance right here. Not too much to really dissect at this current point in time, but overall definitely a nice little consensus right here. I don't know what the halves A and the halves B is doing with this right here. I'll have to see once those model if those mall runs start to come out what their thinking is with this. But yeah, those are the two outliers for obvious reasons. Majority of them are having it further to the west.
So >> yeah.
>> Yeah. All right. So I'm going to turn it over to our other callers real quickly.
Uh Logan, what are your thoughts on what the latest guidance?
Uh, honestly, I I could see that westward shift and the um kind of going back and forth. So, some of the stuff is going to be a little >> hearsay and all, >> but from what I gathered, uh, the, uh, westward shift does make sense with all the models, >> uh, and the storm's relative motion itself. I've been looking at some, uh, maps, dynamic maps at the moment. I am currently seeing that there is a small pocket of mid-level shear to its west.
>> Okay, >> that might move around this storm.
>> All right, >> so that I'm looking at um that not that one. That's uh here.
>> All right, what are we looking at? All right. What do you want to Okay, what do you want to show?
>> Um I showed you last night with the analysis on when it was invest 92 or 91L.
>> Okay.
>> Remember when I had you go on to that?
>> Yeah. I'll go ahead and I'll go pull up Sims real uh real quick.
>> Yep.
>> Yep.
>> And I'll do that. Let's pull this up.
I'm going to show the audience what we're looking at, too, real quickly.
Let's do this.
>> Just Yep.
>> There we go.
>> There we go. All right. So, what do we want to look at? Mid shear. All right.
>> Yep. Mid level.
>> Yep. I see what we're looking at.
>> Mhm.
>> Yeah.
>> Yep.
Okay, I'm looking at IR. Let's see.
Yeah, there is about 20 knots of shear in the mid levels to its west right here, but it's still in a decent uh shear pocket for right now.
>> Yes.
>> Okay.
All right. Interesting for sure.
>> All right. noted that deep just to its north west >> does have about 20 knots of shear and that is actually coming in from the northeast on the northern side of the storm.
>> However, >> coming in from the northeast on the northern side of the storm >> that is actually going to kind of give it like a bit of fuel because that's normally the way the storms are moving.
The motion usually is in the northwestern quadrant of a storm. It's usually going from northeast to southwest before going south and then south east to um from southwest to southeast given counterclockwise motion that would that uh enhances some counterclockwise motion based off of what I am seeing here >> on this map seems to be the case.
>> All right, awesome. Thank you very much for that. All right, let's go ahead and move back to this and let's go. Yeah, let's go ahead and take a gander. So, definitely some interesting stuff to bring up at this current point in time.
So, all right, for those of you who are uh who have been joining us and have been tuning into the stream recently, we're talking about tropical depression 2. We're looking at the latest data.
We're looking at the latest analysis. We just had the zero Z track and intensity models start to come in as well. Uh once again, majority of them moving further to the west. There's a bit of a split now of whether this is going to hit Louisiana or if this is going to stay out to sea and potentially impact Texas at a stronger intensity. So that's the main stuff that we are paying attention to for right now. There are a couple outliers still having this head towards the Florida panhandle and off the Carolina coast, but at this current point, unless we see something completely unexpected happen with the ridge, I would argue that that's mostly an outlier for right now. But we'll have to see what their thinking is and we'll have to see what's going on with that.
But overall, that's but overall, that's what we're keeping an eye on. That's what we're looking at. Main things that we're paying attention to tonight are the convection that's starting to pop up a little bit more. Starting to watching the dry air aspect of this. We looked at the wind shear a little bit as well that's a bit further to the west. But overall, what I'm seeing right here is this continued surge in moisture that's moving through some of these areas, especially in the deep south. That's just only going to help this tropical system going forward in my opinion. So that's what we're seeing at this current point in uh in time right here. So that's what see yeah that's what we're watching. Is there anything we want to look at uh for right now? I'm going to turn the floor over to you guys. Is there anything we want to look at going forward that we should be paying attention to?
>> I'm currently looking at the uh AI model real quick. I got to zoom out even more and got to switch this over to the Atlantic. the AI operation or AI ensemble >> operation. It's the AI ensemble.
>> Okay, >> I got to switch it over to the North Atlantic real quick. There was something I started to see towards the inside the 18Z model run.
>> Wait, is this the Euro AI?
>> Yep.
>> Okay.
>> Uh, it's picking up another signal to the east of Florida. All right, let me >> Mhm.
>> Well, I'll I'll take a quick look at this and then I I just I just hate having to do this cuz Yeah, I'm >> I'm not going to look at it too much because >> it's remains relatively weak. But I see what you're talking about.
>> Yeah, I just wanted to bring that up real quick. And then anyways, back to the storm. I'm noticing that the AI has this thing actually going south with one member actually heading towards Mexico.
like really deep into Mexico. I'm currently looking at other ensembles at the moment. Switch I'm switching over to the regular ensembles, seeing if there's any uh correlation.
>> Mhm.
>> Basically, I am still seeing lots of western uh tracks signal popping up for that other area on the ensemble as well, >> albeit weak signal. Now, I'm going to zoom in on the uh ensembles here on the European because I want to see what I looking at for peak low pressure. I saw 986 and 973 at landfall.
959 in there over land.
>> All right.
>> Uh 973 at landfall.
>> When is I'm sorry, which model is this?
>> This is the European Ensemble. The regular ensemble >> is All right. Cool. Mhm.
>> This the 18Z.
>> Yep. Sorry about that. Uh >> okay, you're good.
>> Yep, you're good.
>> Uh the power behind these models is insane to me.
>> All right.
>> Uh about half these models, half the runs are suggesting a major hurricane. I want to say about half of them that go west, I should say. Half of what goes west seems to suggest a major hurricane in my opinion.
>> Yeah. Yeah. There's also a pretty big portion of there's still a portion of them heading towards Louisiana, too.
Someone in chat asked, "Pat, I rented a beach house uh in Ocean Springs, Mississippi for Tuesday through Thursday. Should I cancel the trip? The house is literally feet from the ocean."
>> Um I I'm going to say this right now. I'm What I will tell you is like I'm probably like what I would say to that is I would listen to local officials on that. As a meteorologist, personally, I wouldn't go uh I wouldn't go there. Uh personally, especially with the potential for storm surge and all of that, if this does actually head to hit hit Louisiana and all of that, but I would contact local officials and get their opinion on it first before doing anything cuz they know the terrain and they know that better than I do. But as a major from a meteorological standpoint, I wouldn't advise it. But before jumping to conclusions and before doing that point, >> contact local authorities.
>> So that's just my op that's just my opinion.
>> You cut out on us, Pat.
>> Of course I did. All right. Can you guys hear me now? We're good.
>> Yep, we hear you.
>> And I have something to add on to your point.
>> Yeah, go ahead.
So, continuing looking at the ensembles, the GEFS does actually have a more um northwest um approach on the uh 18Z towards anywhere between Louisiana to the border of the panhandle. So, I'm going to say you probably should cancel to to be safe rather than sorry because if this thing does head northwest, >> this is dealing with recovery from recent tropical storm Arthur's impacts with all the flooding, >> right? So something I also wanted to add on from your point earlier Pat >> there is no best worst case scenario.
They are both bad case scenarios because one is either going to have flooding on top of what already occurred >> or one's going to get a hur likely a hurricane over areas that also received a lots of flooding.
>> Okay.
>> Basically the southern states have >> go ahead Delta.
>> Yeah. Um, I I am if I was in your position who's asking about cancelling, I would cancel. Not just due to the uncertainty at the moment and the potential impacts, but just because it's just going to be a crummy day at the beach.
>> Yeah.
>> You're going to have storm surge potential. You're going to have rip currents. You're going to have potentially strong rainbands and gusty winds. It it just I I would just cancel.
>> All right. Hey, Delta, while we're talking to you, is this uh is this D'Vorak for Tropical Depression 2?
>> Yes, it is.
>> We'll show that in a second. But uh is there if there's anyone else that wants to give their opinion, go ahead.
>> All right, cool. So, all right. What's up, LT?
Um, I just posted a new microwave and uh, if you could pull that up, I could show you something interesting.
>> Yeah, I'll pull this up real quickly, then we'll get to the D'vorax stuff. Go ahead, LT. What do you What you got for us?
>> Uh, first of all, I just got this on MB.
Okay.
>> Um, it was a new frame. Um, and where your cursor is, >> that is a fear band.
>> Okay.
>> Yeah. Um, so the storm is now producing a fear band, which is going to help the system even more.
>> It's going to help it breathe.
>> Mhm.
>> That's the first sign. That's the That's the first sign of organization right there. We uh we have seen tonight. Thank you very much. Can I add on to LT's point?
>> Oh, uh, LT, go ahead and then Logan.
>> Uh, yeah. Um, yeah, sir. Can you also back me? Uh, can you also see if is that like in the center where there's like a little bit of red?
>> Is that the center?
>> I say just south of that red.
>> Yeah.
>> Okay. See where you got what looks like um a small area of a se of a semicircle inside of another area that's a hemis circle.
>> Mhm.
>> Yeah.
>> Kind of looks like a gazelle.
>> Mhm.
>> Right in there I think is your center.
>> Ah I see what you're talking about. Yep.
This >> right in there.
>> Yeah.
>> Yep. I know exactly where that is. Yep.
That looks like >> something right there.
>> Yeah. LT's point. Uh, this feeder band has actually been here since yesterday.
>> Sure.
>> Oh, >> that's yesterday. That's what that banding is.
>> That microwave is now picking up to be very intense, >> which I actually >> It's this right here on satellite.
>> Yes, it is. You can actually see it feeding in already, which is something I actually informed of on the microwave pass because we originally thought it wasn't a great microwave pass until I >> we brought up the the the feeder band because I learned about these a little while back with uh >> au just as an back to the point. Uh this is going to feed moisture into the storm and the feeder band is partially connected to moisture from a trough. So that tells me it's going to pull in lots and lots of moisture. And I mean lots of moisture.
>> That's only gonna help.
>> I do not think Yep. I think dry air is no longer a true concern after the next day.
>> Yeah.
>> All right. Thank you very much right here. Okay. So Delta, we have D'vorak right here. Uh that you have pulled up.
I'm going to is I'm going to see if I can pull it up. I we I'm going to pull up your screenshot and I'm going to see if we can pull it up on my end as well, but we This is the D'vorak Est satellite estimates for tropical depression 2.
What did you show what did you find and kind of what do you want us to take a look at with these?
>> Well, the way that I can put this off is is that uh hold on just one second.
>> Okay.
All right. While we're waiting for Delta, I'm going to pull it up on my uh on my end. Oh, there it is.
>> I can explain some of it in the meantime if needed.
>> Sure.
>> Okay, I'm back.
>> Okay, Delta. Perfect.
>> Yep. I got it pulled up on my side.
>> Yeah, just had to deal with some uh some background noise.
>> Wonderful.
>> Okay. Um so basically what we're what we're looking at is is the there's an out D'vorak is a way of estimating uh wind intensity by looking at the structure and it assigns values like where it says so basically the model so you see a raw t >> so that's the raw data that the that the technique the the vorac satellite estimate is taking in based on a couple variables.
>> Okay.
>> I'm still trying to figure out those variables myself. I'll for a later broadcast I'll be able to go more in depth. I'm still learning it.
>> Yep.
>> But and then you have an adjusted teeth.
It has a 2.3. So the raw T is a 2.5. The adjusted is a 2.3.
>> All right.
>> So it's done a little bit of cleaning up of that data.
>> Okay. And then you get a final T of 1.7.
>> All right, >> those that is roughly the number the NHC base their satellite intensity off of it off of D'vorak and a few others.
>> Okay.
>> All right, perfect.
>> According to the D'vorak, the raw data supports a potential minimum tropical storm. Okay.
>> I don't think it is a tropical storm yet. It is on its way.
>> So, it's just a way for the NHC and for us to be able to estimate uh intensity without having recon and surface observations inside of the storm currently.
>> Right.
For sure. Yep. So, that's our first D'vorax satellite estimates. We have pulled up. We have right here for you guys. Um, according to this, if we took this at face value, 103.7 Vmax of 32 knots, um, that would still be tropical depression strength at this current point, but it's definitely an indicator as to what may be happening later tonight. What we got to watch out for though, uh, what we got to watch out for though is this developing convection that's starting to fire off. Also, it's been 20 minutes since I refreshed this.
So, maybe we can get a closer look as to what's going on with this. And okay, this is >> seizure warning.
>> Yep. Seizure warning to those prone to flashing lights. But we got something going on here that I want to take a quick gander at. Okay, right near the center, guys, we have a new burst of this is actually deep convection right here.
I'm not sure if you guys can see it, but we're starting to see that burst right there. It looks small right now, but as we've seen all night last night, and we've seen a numerous instances before, small uh small things like this can become big problems in the long run. And considering we have a deep hot tower hold uh right here, we'll have to watch it. What's up, dude?
I'm seeing two other areas of significant u uh convection as well.
>> Okay.
>> I'm seeing one that might still be influenced by the land because it is just off of the the panhandle shore.
Again, this is a new blob that just showed up within let's see that is the past 50 minutes a whole entire blob has shown up.
>> Yeah. And that has also been the case too to the south of the center, south southwest of the center.
>> Yep, I'm seeing it over here. There's numerous areas >> tell me that maximum influences are going to be affecting the storm. Also, I have something to continue from Delta's point too.
>> Uh I wouldn't trust the values for uh an idea on the on the storm just yet because the D'vorak has a dal uh bias just because structure is changed by the dial maximum.
>> All right. So it'll look more impressive. So the the vorak is naturally going to go up because of that.
>> So that's that's going to be a bias.
That's like one of the fatal flaws of D'vorak. So I wouldn't go off of that per se just yet, unless this was during the day and it kind of held. But yeah, there is that really deep convection which has popped up near the center. And uh I see signs of clouds forming in that pocket of dry air, which I do also see the spin is continuing to uh spin faster for sure.
>> Yeah, we're starting to see that tight pressure is dropping.
>> Yeah, >> I mean dropping.
>> We're starting to see that.
>> Yep. Go ahead.
I'm also curious to see if we've gotten another uh buoy update on uh pressures at all because I saw pressure is kind of kind of well away from the storm is kind of sitting steady at just about 1,09 mibars.
>> It dropped a little bit for a second. Uh let's see just a moment here. Yeah, hovering around 109.4 millibars. I'm looking at other um areas on buoys as well.
>> So far, no significant changes have been spotted yet.
>> Yeah, >> aside from the fact that one earlier recorded 1,0.2 millibars and off the pan on the panhandle coast, it is 1,0.8.
>> However, those are likely meoscale influences.
>> All right. And based off the fact too that there's um shear and I saw that it looks kind of like a mezo kind of shear and I saw a deeper pressure tells me that there might be a tropospheric upper level trough a small one >> that is just to the uh east or excuse me to the west of this system. So it is causing some minor shear. It is weak. I think it's a weak cell, >> weak tut cell that is influencing our tropical depression for a little bit >> and causing some of that dry air because that would be that would cause sinking and substance which is dry air.
>> All right seen with that dry air pocket.
>> All right, man. Thank you for that. I do appreciate that. So would you say that this system is still is still organizing behind underneath all this business that we're dealing with right here?
>> Yes.
>> Okay. I say that because this thing is extremely extremely resilient for being a for being a disorganized tropical depression. This is a very resilient system. Normally these systems collapse >> under very missions such as these.
>> Yeah, it's been getting fueled by two sources of moisture in the last couple of days. Both of which coming from the deep south. So it's definitely been helping it out right there.
It's got three sources, Pat.
>> Yeah, it has plenty of resources and plenty of capital to >> three sources of three sources of uh moisture.
>> It's got one coming in from Florida, one coming in from the trough from the southeast United States, and one coming in from the Gulf. That is that feeder band.
>> Yep. So, yeah, all those are helping plug out this dry air business that we're dealing with here, too. So, that's some interesting news right there. More convection. Oh, seizure warning, guys.
more convection is definitely starting to fire off. We're getting like we're around dial minimum at this current point in time actually, but DMAX starts to increase in the next 30 minutes or so. So, I'd say starting around 9:00, we're going to be definitely seeing some more stuff going off if we haven't seen it now. And we definitely are to say at the very least.
>> Yes, sir. Uh, this thing had a slight shift to the north as um on the storm track according to Cyclonic WX.
>> Okay.
>> There was a slight shift of about um >> I'm not sure how much that is. I'd probably say 20 or so miles. Okay.
>> 30 or so miles >> to the north. If you want to look at Cyclonic's uh uh best track on Tropical Depression 2's history real quick.
>> Yeah. Let's take a look at it. Let's go to TD2. Let's look at >> All right.
>> Go down more.
>> Okay.
>> Right there.
>> Oh.
>> All right.
So, >> yeah. That dot that's larger is the current observation.
>> Okay. Up. This is where it's at.
>> It's mainly just meandering still though around this area.
>> Yes.
>> Still wanted to point out. Okay. And as I as you say, any small change can cause an avalanche effect, but I did want to point out it is moving to the north again.
>> Absolutely. Yeah, for right now it is.
Yes. But we'll have to see what happens.
Um it's definitely an interesting situation for sure. Um 30 miles may not seem like that much, but that might be the difference between a landfall and a close pass to Louisiana.
So, that's going to be very interesting down the line. Ladies and gentlemen, we have almost 400 people in the stream. Be sure to like the stream, subscribe to the channel if you are new. The goal, as always, is to get more people engaged with weather. Um, we've been uh really blowing up in and subscribers. We've gotten a lot of new people engaged with weather over the last couple of days because of this. So, thank you very much for checking us out and we really do appreciate it. Also, join the Storms United Discord server. The link to that is in the end is not in the end screen, but in the pin chat below if you'd like to see some behind the scenes and give some analysis of your own. So, it's definitely an interesting situation that we're going to want to pay attention to uh going forward. But ultimately, what we're going to need to watch out for tonight are two things here. Number one, how is this system going to track?
Number two, how is the uh how is the system going to take advantage of the nighttime and uh and the convection in general in in general? Excuse my l excuse me for a second. How is this going to take advant advantage of the dial maximum that's going to start ramping up say in about I'd say 30-ish minutes or so? Those are the two main things that we are going to want to watch out for. So that's the main uh things we are going to take a look at tonight uh at least for right now while watching the dry air aspect of things as well because that is definitely quite something that we are watching for sure.
So yeah.
All right. Is there any is there anything else we want to uh that we want to disc uh discuss real quickly uh from anyone in the call?
>> Um yeah, >> go ahead LT.
>> Um I just re I just looked at your screen and I saw dry air is basically almost out. It it did hurt the storm and it's um >> convection but um it's just it's just negligible.
Dryer is basically negligible now.
Yeah, it's at least at least at the immediate center it is. So it def it definitely is for sure. It still needs to battle some of this out over here further to the west, but overall for right now, the dry air is getting plugged in and that's probably going to get mixed out soon in the next little while. But yeah, that's Yeah, thank you very much, LT. Um, let's uh let's see what else we uh what else we can pull uh for right here. Uh for right here. So yeah, definitely a bit of a northward shift tonight compared to what we've seen previously based on current observations. I'm noticing it on Dapia as a matter of fact as well. So yeah, it's definitely a situation that's going to put it closer to land in the long uh in the long run uh for sure. But we're just going to uh we're just going to need to keep an eye on it tonight.
Um, I know I keep saying that, but okay, there's Okay, this is something I didn't notice. Let me refresh the page real quickly. See if this continues because I saw something that piqued my interest.
And yes, it is peing my interest. Let's take >> Yep. Seizure warning to those prone to flashing lights. But this is peing my interest right now. And I want to show you the satellite imagery once. Uh, once again. So yeah, this is what we got. Um, okay.
Okay.
Yeah, there are three areas of convection in particular around the center that are starting to fire off.
One, two, three. Two of them are particularly deep as of right now. And this area of convection has definitely gotten a lot bigger over the last while.
So yeah. So yeah, definitely something to watch out for for uh for sure. Um hey, give me one uh give me one second.
Hey, I already fed them. All right.
Okay. So all right. So what are you guys' thoughts on that? Sorry for the quick interruption.
Oh, we just uh we just need to uh keeping a close eye on the uh the short term.
>> Absolutely.
>> Shortterm overachievements are going to dictate long-term long-term uh how can I say this?
Long-term outcomes.
>> Yes, sir.
Oh, also noticing a couple other spurts further up to the north. uh right here as well. Kind of north of this main convection blob over here that I'm paying attention to as well. But man, yeah. Also, Logan, I'm seeing what you're talking about in terms of the uh in terms of the um your spin that you were talking about. It's definitely rotating a lot faster. that that gradient and that rotation has definitely gotten a lot tighter over the last hour or so.
>> Yes, it has.
>> Yep.
So, yeah. Yeah. Speaking of David, where is uh where is he? Let's see if we can get him in the Let's see if we can get him on in the call when whenever he's done with his stuff. So, >> yeah.
>> Actually, I was going to actually see if he you and him wanted to do like a live.
Yeah, I'd love to.
>> Yeah, >> honestly and you guys can both be live at the exact same time. Double the coverage.
>> Yeah, exactly.
>> Team >> and double the support and double the uh >> information you guys in the audience from the weather community.
>> Yeah, >> some of the best of the weather community.
>> Yeah, seizure warning. Yeah, for sure.
>> Everybody safe, protected, and secure.
>> Absolutely.
Okay. Okay. I'm looking at this.
>> You want to send that invite to him?
Yeah. Uh, yeah. Yeah, if you want to go a Yeah, if you want to go ahead. For sure. I'm sure he's probably taking care of his own stuff right now. I know he likes to do his own analysis first before he uh before he takes in callers.
That's what we did yesterday. So, >> yeah. All right. So, I'm looking at this right here. Um, definitely reinforcing this. This over the last 5 minutes really piqued my interest over here. I look at the small stuff because that could potentially uh that could potentially become a bigger problem down the line. Yeah. Yeah, that small popcorn convection is starting to pop. It definitely is for right now.
We're going to want to pay it uh we're going to want to pay attention to that for sure. So, that's what we're looking at. I want to see what we're looking at al uh on tropical tidbits as well. This is what we've seen. In fact, this is more of a long-term situation. Actually, I want to give us a little retrospective to see what we've been looking at over the last little while. Let's see. So, this is what we got. This was from this morning. Convection was kind of firing off. Definitely a bit more uh it concentrated before it started scattering a little bit more as it moved outside. And now we're starting to see some of that convection getting a little bit replaced. But we did start seeing a lot of this start to fade off a little bit before we start seeing more concentrated convection. So definitely an interesting situation that we're going to want to watch out for. Uh right uh right here. Yeah, someone in chat null is showing SSTs under the storm at 9:40 p.m. Atlantic time is 87.2 degrees to 87.4 24 degrees Fahrenheit.
Wow.
Yeah, that is definitely a very uh that is definitely very warm waters that this system has and will continue to take advantage of as well. So, that's we're going to want to pay attention to that moving forward. Let's What else can we what else can I take a look at? Yeah, let's look at the water temperatures real quickly on this.
30 plus degrees C water temps throughout its entire journey. Um that is not an insignificant amount of water and it only gets warmer as it moves closer towards Louisiana. Looking at especially Texas and Louis uh in Louisiana you're looking at areas cracking 31° C. I'm going to see if I can get a closer and better image of this on Cyclonic WX real quickly. Let's look at SST analysis OSAT. Um, let's look at the western Atlantic and look at our SSTs. Yep, this is much better of an image right here.
Looking at this right here, you're looking at 30° C now. 31° uh uh 31° C right off the coast of Louisiana. So, if this system moves south of the Mississippi River Delta and impacts this area right here, you're going to have a situation where it's going to have a lot a lot warmer waters to take advantage of. So, in my opinion, based on what I'm seeing tonight, it looks to me that the next, I'd say 12 to 24 hours, and I talked about this with these guys beforehand, are going to be the most critical stretch of this system's life, a lifespan, because if it can get its act together, it can if it can keep producing the convection it's producing, and if it can keep if it can keep the train rolling with what it's doing right now and start to produce a consolidated core, then this system will have a much easier time or uh organizing and strengthening in the long run. Is that a fair statement, guys?
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Um can I bring up something?
>> Yes, sir.
>> Yeah, fair statement.
>> Uh WVC is mentioning a risk on day five.
>> Is this for the Is this for TD2?
I believe it is disconnected from it, but it could be associated with it.
>> All right.
>> All right. For sure. So, yeah, thank you very much, Trevor. We'll need to monitor that and we'll need to keep an eye on that because we did pull up the flood risk earlier tonight. Um, yeah, I'm see I'm going to see if I can pull I'm going to pull it up for uh those who are ju who are just tuning in. But earlier tonight, they uh actually no, I can pull it up from the NHC website real quickly.
Yeah, here's what we got for our flood potential from any pretty much around Beluxy, Mississippi all the way to near Corpus Christi. There is a slight risk of flooding from this system due to the slow motion and due to the fact that this is going to be moving right along the coast of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas, ladies and gentlemen. So ultimately we have that flood risk right there. Whether they increase it or not is up to the WPC, but I definitely can see that scenario happening, especially if we see more rainfall potential as uh at this current point in time. Taking a quick gander at it. The rainfall potential, majority of it staying out to sea. But with the northern shift we have seen tonight, I would say that that that rainfall potential could definitely get shifted further up to the north towards parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the New Orleans area in Louisiana. So, you're going to want to be cognizant of that turnaround, do not drown, and we will keep you updated on that as well.
So, that's what we're looking at for that. One thing we have not done, guys, we have not looked at the hurricane models just yet. The 18Z hurricane models tonight. Would you guys be interested in doing that real quickly for for those just tuning in? Sure. All right. So, that's all right. Let's go ahead and pull these up. Let's pull up the Hmon the HR first. All right. Here.
Here is the 18Z Hmon model that you have. We're going to pull up the uh surface uh we're going to pull up the 10 m winds with this uh system right here just to kind of give you an idea of how organized this is going to be. But ultimately, here's what we got. the system is organizing already, 108 millibars according to the uh to the Hmon, 107 by the time we get to uh 10 p.m. right here, which I definitely could see that as a realistic scenario given the consolidation we are seeing underneath a lot of that dry uh underneath a lot of that uh that popcorn convection, a little bit of dry air to the west. But this system right here, according to the Hmon, by tomorrow morning is forecasted to become a tropical storm and potentially organized at a pretty decent pace as it starts to move further to the west. 9996 millibars. So, it definitely gets into the 990s as it starts to develop a core around it and then it reaches hurricane strength before it approaches the Mississippi River Delta in Louisiana.
And then it starts to really ramp up in intensity potentially up to a 90 mile per hour category 1 hurricane as it approaches. It does uh remain that intensity before making landfall I believe near the Mississippi River Delta but ultimately weakening as it's starting to move further inland as well.
It kind of hovers over Louisiana before reemerging uh before re-emerging outside of Vermilion Bay before re starting to reorganize and potentially reintensify before making landfall in Texas. So that's what we're seeing with the 18Z Hmon at this current point. Let's take a quick gander at our Hwarf for you guys as well. Here is the Hwarf for the uh for the 18Z. The ZeroZ Hwarf and Hmon are not out yet. They won't be out for a little while. But here's what we got for you guys. Uh right here, this is what we have at this current point. 10,08 mibars by the time we get to around 1:00 a.m.
according to the Hwarf. So, a bit more on the conservative side compared to the Hmon. But it does start to organize and consolidate reaching tropical storm strength by either tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon. And then it starts to consolidate a core potentially reaches hurricane strength by Tuesday morning, as a matter of fact, as it's approaching Louisiana. So definitely a possibility we're seeing if this system can organize and consolidate. But the Hwarf is a bit more on the northern side making landfall near the Mississippi Alabama border before getting yanked hard down to the south through parts of Louisiana as that ridge starts to set in and potentially reorganized before making landfall either in western Louisiana or eastern Texas. So that's what we have with our Hworth, the Halves A and the Halves B. Definitely I've looked at some I've definitely looked at some of the runs. They have not been fantastic at all. Here's the haves A for you guys right here. This is the outlier at zero Z that had it moving towards the Florida panhandle. I'm not 100% sure why that is, but yeah, the haves A is not really showing us that much uh that much going on. Let's go ahead and see what the havs B is doing because both of these models have been very janky with uh with what it with Tropical Depression 2. So, that is something that we're going to want to keep an eye on.
Hopefully they fix that in the times to come. But the Hmon and the Hwarf are definitely picking up on this potentially being a hurricane before making landfall in Louisiana. According to them, some of the ensembles have it moving south of Louisiana. Kind of a situation where this moves further up to the north, kind of hugs the Gulf Coast before that ridge starts to set in and yank it further to the south. maybe making a quick clipping of the Mississippi River Delta before moving into the deeper waters of the Gulf and intensifying from there. We were talking about that earlier tonight as well. So guys in the call based on what we've seen with the hurricane models tonight, what are your overall thoughts?
>> Still the same. An uptick in activity, an uptick in chances, and an uptick in strength.
>> All right.
All right. What's All right. Yeah.
>> Go ahead, LT.
>> Sorry. Um, yeah. Ba, yeah, that's basically what's happening.
>> Mhm.
>> Yeah, >> I would say uh the halves models I I just have a feeling they're this way because they I think they have some recon data, >> but I don't think they have enough yet.
I I really will be interested to see what the zero Z say.
>> Yeah, me too. That would definitely be that would definitely be a good thing for sure. Trevor, what are your thoughts?
>> I wish there's a very good chance of it happening.
>> You You do?
>> Yep.
>> All right.
>> Yes. Anyways, in the meantime, I'm gonna try and see if I can get David on here.
That's that would be that would be wonderful if we could do that.
>> One thing I want I want to mention from WPC looking at their discussion, it says that it will that this voyer will rise northwest northeastern around the around the fronts in the fronts with a spiking PWTS >> of above 2.25 inch for this area. So basically uh I think this is a this is a tropical cyclone.
It is going to be near the Louisiana coast.
>> All right.
Yeah, it definitely seems to be the consensus for tonight. Maybe uh heading closer towards the Louisiana coast before shifting further to the south from when that ridge starts to set in.
So, that's kind of what I'm leaning towards myself based on all the data and based on the analysis that I have seen tonight. Ladies and gentlemen, be sure to hit the subscribe button and like the stream if you are new. The goal, as always, is to get more people engaged with weather. And we've definitely been doing a good job of that over the last couple of nights. I can't believe we have almost 400 people in the stream right now. Shout out to everybody who who came out. Thank you very much for all the mad love and support you've given us tonight. Be sure to join the Storm Snider Discord server as well.
Link to that is in the pin chat below.
So, that's what we're that's what we're doing tonight. We are talking about TD2 at this current point. I'm going to pull up this some more satellite imagery uh real quickly. Let's go ahead and see what the latest over here uh is at if we can take a quick gander at that. Okay.
Okay. Let's take Okay. Let's see what Let's see what has changed and let's see if we can uh let's see what we can gather from this. So, >> seizure warning.
>> Yep. Thank you very much.
Okay.
All right. So, what I'm seeing right here, it seems to me that there are from at least around the center of it, there are three distinct are just announced invite to David on his stream.
>> All right. Perfect. Yep. What I will say, there are three distinct areas that I'm paying attention to tonight with our convection. The first area is our northern part that's been mainly consistent for a while. The second part is this big burst that has been well, not necessarily a big burst, but it's been a decent size burst that's been firing off over the last 30 or so minutes. And then there's these multiple areas of convection further to the south that are starting to slowly but surely get their act together as time continues to progress. We're going to need to wait and see how this happens. Another burst to convection 2 is on that line as well further to the west. Uh as uh as well Dr. Checkmate 64, what are the chances it misses Louisiana entirely and heads directly for Texas? In my opinion, based on what I'm seeing, I would I would give it I would say there's still a 50/50 chance, especially if that ridge is trending stronger and just yanks it further to the south and especially if it does it earlier than expected. What are your guys's thoughts on that?
>> I would say I I would agree with about a 5050.
>> All right.
>> All right. All right. Oh, go ahead, Logan.
>> All right. So, no, repeat that. I'm just trying to listen in and see what uh David says about the offer because I don't think he's seen it yet. But what are we talking about just now?
>> Okay. What are the chance uh we're questioning and chat? What are the chances it misses Louisiana entirely and heads directly to Texas?
>> I'd say it's a one in three chance that it hits Louisiana. So, two in three chance it misses Louisiana.
>> Why do you >> in my personal opinion?
>> You seem a bit confident with that. Any reason why?
>> The ridge that is building.
>> Okay.
>> Is why.
>> All right. It's just going to I think it's just going to cause this storm to be pushed further south and then it just goes west at a further southern um support. Just given the fact that the uh ridge to the uh east is supposed to weaken, the trough is supposed to move out and a ridge is supposed to expand and take place. That tells me this thing is going to move a little south relative to where the the ridge starts and then it's going to move west. Once the ridge moves directly north of it, it's going to move west. Kind of like how Hurricane Aaron went to the south. It wasn't expected, but it went to the south.
>> That's not strengthwise, but just track.
I think you could do something like an Aaron and go to the to the south unexpectedly.
>> The reason for that was because of a stronger than expected ridge that built up and because of the rapid intensification, it pumped that ridge and allowed for it to uh for that to situation to happen. So, >> yep. Basically, I think the stronger the storm gets, which it's doing so now, it's doing better than I think the NHC is realizing, >> because it's they're still having it as a depression for the next update and all.
>> Mhm.
>> But the the convection is supposed to fire off a lot, which means that this thing will likely strengthen a ridge that forms and then that will just that just increases my confidence completely.
And that's my thoughts.
>> All right, I'm checking. Yeah, I'm checking I'm gonna see if we have another situation right here. Okay. All right. They haven't update. Okay.
They've updated the D'vorax stuff to they've decreased the adjusted and raw uh T numbers right here. So, definitely watching that as well. But over uh but overall still we're going to need to watch out for this. Yeah. Latest of of latest for those of you tuning in.
30 mile per hour uh tropical depression, 108 mibar pressure. Would not be surprised if that starts to dip a little bit lower going into the next advisory given how quickly this has started to consolidate especially over the last hour. That rotation has definitely started to pick up an increase in strength I would argue. I will also say there's something interesting I'm starting to notice here.
Hold on. I'm looking at this real quickly.
Is it just me or is there is this broad area of rotation further up to the north in this big blob of convection right here?
>> It is. We uh remember that thing I showed you, David, or I mean Pat.
>> Yes.
>> Uh that northern shift that is confirmed.
>> Okay, that's the northern shift. I wasn't sure if it was >> the background.
>> Okay, so it would be the center of it would be I'd say right around here. I would say that's about Let's see what Let me see if I Okay, I don't have it pulled. Let me Let me Oh, sorry. My apologies. Let's go ahead and I want to see that image once again that you sent that you sent. Um, yeah, let me Yeah, just All right, never mind. Okay, I'm just keeping an eye on this because if this is a situation where this system is starting to develop in this deeper area of convection right here, to me, that's a bit of a double-edged for me, it's a bit of a double-edged sword. Because on one hand, you have a scenario where this system starts consolidating and starts getting its act together a little bit earlier, but on the other hand, if it's shifting this far up to the north, this would make a Louisiana like landfall more likely, which at least in the short term would make things worse, but uh but would also would ultimately dip the power a little bit as well if it stays that far to the north. I will say though, it's still early, but if we are seeing this situation where it's starting to consolidate in this deep area of convection right here, you're we're going to be in for an interesting ride. We're seeing more convection firing off as well, not just here, but also further to the south as well. So, yeah, this is one resilient storm that has been just I wouldn't necessarily say defying the odds, but it was kind of forecast to fight like hell. And so far it's off to a pretty good start. Let me refresh the page on this real quickly just to get an idea of what's going on.
But yeah, taking a look at this. Yeah, you're seeing more convection all over the place around the center, consolidating around the center as well.
And that dry air is just getting more and more mixed out as time continues to go on. So that's what we're uh looking at right here. So be sure to like the stream, subscribe to the channel if you are new. We've been live for about 2 hours now. So, thank you very much for all that have been tuning in and joining us. Be sure you uh you do those two uh be sure you you come in and hit that like button, subscribe to the channel.
It means a lot. The goal, as always, is to get more people engaged with weather.
So, that's what we are doing here tonight. It is almost the top of the hour. We are tracking tropical depression too. Keeping a very close eye on it as well. watching it and seeing how things are going to prog uh going to progress. And ladies and gentlemen, we have an ASCAT uh we have an ASCAT pass that was a couple of hours old. Do we want to take a look at this?
>> Yeah, sure.
>> Yeah, it's a couple of hours old, but this is our center of circulation right here, folks. Pretty decently organ uh pretty decently uh organized, pretty decently wrapped around. Um, if anyone would like to go over this, please go ahead and be my guest.
>> I'll give it a shot.
>> Go ahead, Delta.
>> Um, basically what we're seeing right now is basically this is satellite estimate surface winds using uh using high high resolution sensors on satellites that orbit the earth. So it looks it it infers the surface wind and direction. So what we're seeing here is a clear defined low-level center. And this is about 2 hours old.
>> Yeah.
>> About 2 to three hours old.
>> Mhm. And so it's pretty much put nail that it's have a clean defined center circulation and you can infer the general center.
>> Yeah.
>> Location by from the wind barbs.
>> Yep. That's how you know this is a tropical psych uh tropical cyclone in development. Right here you have that closed low and it's definitely being backed up and supported with by the environment around it. So, thank you very much, Delta. That uh that we really appreciate that. Um taking a quick gander at our satellite imagery. Uh once again, yeah, more convection starting uh to fire off. There's not too much new uh with that this current point, but definitely we uh definitely we h have a lot of people in the stream right now.
Definitely wanting to know what's going on. Well, here's the situation that we have, folks. We have a developing tropical depression that's going to become a tropical storm. From what I've seen from the guidance and from what I've seen tonight, it looks to me like things are going to get a little hairy for a lot of areas in the Gulf Coast. If you're tuning in from the Florida panhandle all the way to the Louisiana coast, you're going to want to pay very close attention to this tonight. Uh, and also considering the fact that this system is shifting a bit further up to the north. I would not be surprised if the NHC upgrades these tropical storm watches that we're looking at over here into tropical storm warnings uh excuse me especially we're going to have to see how this will pan out. But according to the cone for right here by the way we do get a new a new cone in about an hour as well. So be sure you stay around for that because we can definitely dissect it and definitely analyze it too. But at least according to what I have seen from the cone for you guys right here, expected to be a tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon.
Although some models want to happen a little bit earlier than that. Expected to strengthen up to a 60 mph tropical storm early on according to the NHC.
Make landfall near the Mississippi River Delta. Move through southern Louisiana.
Potentially head towards Vermilion Bay.
Stay just south of that before making landfall in Texas. The max peak intensity we are seeing with this is 60 mph, at least according to where we're at by 100 p.m. on Thursday. But the NHC has emphasized that this could intensify further. Let's go ahead and take a quick gander at some of their discussion very quickly to show you this. The depression is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in the short term due to its sprawling structure nearby dry air, which it is mixing out, and northeasterly vertical wind shear, which isn't causing too many issues at this current point. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of the Florida panhandle. The shear could briefly let up during the middle of next week of the week, excuse me. And if the system is still overwater at that time, it could strengthen some more. There is a large spread in the model solutions that range from the system remaining a tropical depression to even becoming a hurricane given the mixed environmental conditions and some expected land interaction. The NHC intensity forecast lies in between of these solutions, but leans closer to the upper end of guidance. However, it is worth emphasizing that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given the uncertainty of how much of the land the system will interact with. So, ultimately, it all depends on what's going to happen by the time we get to Wednesday afternoon. And it depends on how much of a northern shift we see tonight. Because if we see a scenario where it shifts a bit further up to the north, areas in uh areas in eastern Louisiana definitely could see more impacts from this and a potential landfall. in that area, too. At the same time, we're also looking at a strong ridge that is building up in parts of the Midwest that could push this further to the south as well. I've noticed that as well. We've talked about it last night. We've talked about it tonight.
So, we're going to want to keep an eye on this and and keep uh keep you guys informed. But in about 55 minutes, we get a new advisory. We will get a new cone, and it will definitely give us an indication as to what's going on. But based on the zero Z guidance, it's definitely from what I've seen so far about a 50/50 split that this system is going to make either make landfall or stay just off the coast of Louisiana.
But in my opinion, based on what I've seen tonight, it looks to me that if you're in Louisiana and if you're in Texas, you're looking like you're going to probably get the worst impacts from this. And you're going to especially want to watch this very closely if you're anywhere from New Orleans, Louisiana all the way down to Corpus Christi, Texas. I would extend that down to maybe Bowmont. But for right now, I'm keeping it from New Orleans to Corpus Christi. So if you're tuning in from those areas along the coast of Louisiana and Texas, take this very seriously and we will keep you updated here on the channel as more data continues to come out. Is there any other thoughts from uh from those in the call that have been listening to what I've said? Is there any other like what are your guys' opinions on what I just described? And what are your overall thoughts?
>> Okay, so am I so mostly looking at some more data because I'm looking at um thinking about the NHC that will do another advisory.
>> Yep.
>> I think we have stuff that supports 30 knots.
>> Oh.
>> Mhm.
>> All right. What do we got?
So, first I'm seeing drint, which has been consistently hovering around 30 knots in the most recent hours.
>> Seizure warning. Thank you.
>> Thank you, LT.
>> Um, advanced D'Vorak has uptick. I'm not using its actual strength. Uh, advance AI D'vorak is also upticked. It's even higher than the regular D'vorak.
>> Mhm.
>> And then, uh, I'm looking at this over here as well.
I'm also seeing the uptick on the uh drint as or demint as well. Demint and drprint are both at about 30 knots.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh combustion has increased. Pressure has fallen. Spin has increased which gives me the sign that um the uh what's it called? Uh the center is likely strengthening given the fact spin has >> spin's motion has increased. Uh, the uptick has increased, the convection's increasing. I think getting starting to get into DMAX is causing this storm to strengthen. And given what I'm seeing here, >> I'm just going to do a little bit more stuff on this real quick. I think that we have a 30 knot tropical depression at the moment. Based on what I am seeing here, I'm going to look at some observations real quick and see if I notice anything.
>> All right. Just a second.
>> Yep, we are getting past that 9:00 hour I was talking about earlier about Demon passing and now DMAX is starting to ramp up a little bit. Noticing some more buoys.
>> Yep. Noticing >> and uh Yep. Continue.
>> Yeah, noticing more convection starting to pop up, especially as we've started to reach the top of the hour and we've moved past that. There's a couple areas that are flaring up, especially boom, boom, boom that I'm watching. One, two of them are rather on the higher end.
one of them is rather on the lower end that we're going to want to watch out for, but already we're starting to see that getting replenished and starting to see that getting replaced over there.
So, definitely a big situation that we're going to want to watch out for, but any other thoughts from everybody in the call?
>> I do have a bit more on that before looking at the buoys, I am noticing a hovering of,9.3 millibars to this northnortheast at that one observation.
You said >> overall have an extreme fall, 109.3, not 103 would be insane.
>> Yeah, >> 103 would be a little bit of a suicide.
>> Mhm. Yeah, >> but I'm seeing 109.3 millibars to the northnortheast of this system. And based off what I am seeing here, albeit it's remaining steady at for the moment, >> I think it's actually going to try and decrease because this the low pressure move to the north. And given everything I've been looking at, I would not be surprised, excuse me, 1,06 or 107 millibars at 30 knots for the 11 p.m. advisory. Uh, I'm leaning 1,07 millibars just because this only appears to be slight.
>> Mhm.
>> Or actually, no, 106 just because the spin is increased drastically.
>> Sure. and the fact that the uh center is still hovering around but 109.3 is a drop that I've been seeing and then overall pressure has just been decreasing or deepening and convection's been increasing substantially.
>> Yes, >> I think 35 miles an hour and uh 106 millibars may be the next advisory and uh LT Delta and Trevor, would you guys agree on that?
I would um yeah, I would agree on that.
I think that's pretty um a bit shocking of how quickly this is developing even especially with drier semi. I know it's not like a major factor anymore, but it's still there. um with dry air >> uh intruding the storm. Granted, it's mixable, but once again, dry air dryer, it's going to hinder the storm, but surprised how quickly it has increased.
>> Me, too.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. I'm looking at this right here. Go ahead, Delta.
>> Yeah, I agree. I I do believe that they're going to up slightly for the 11.
>> Yeah, I'm I'm inclined to agree right now, but I am holding but I am holding a little reservations. I think they'll probably decrease the pressure, but I'm not sure about the intensity unless we start seeing something completely unex completely unexpected going uh going on, which >> Yeah, that's a fair take.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. I only say the winds might increase too because that motion has drastically increased which normally gives me a sign that winds have increased >> on top of that. So >> yeah, that spin is definitely ramping up.
>> Yeah. Yeah. With that increased um spin, that's why I say about 30 knots instead of just 25. But we'll have to wait and see what the NHC decides and puts out and uh give us some updates as needed.
And I do hear the slight uh echoing from your mic, Pat. Uh >> oh. Yep. Yeah, that's that's on my that's my bad. Thank you very much for letting me know. Um what do y'all think the NHC will go with at 11:00 p.m.
Eastern time? We kind of just talked about that. Um I would honestly I see a case for both. Either it's going to be 30 it's either going to be 20 30 miles an hour in 107 or 35 miles per hour in 106 in my opinion. So that's what I'm uh but that's kind of where I'm standing on it right here. I think everybody else is around around 35 miles per hour6. Is that is that a fair take for you guys?
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Okay.
>> Delta and Trevor, what do you think?
>> Yeah, that's fair.
>> Yep. So overall, we have a consensus for Pat's Tropics team of 35 miles hour and 106 millibars for the next update. And Pat has the either 25 knots, 107 millibars or 30 knots, 106 millibars.
>> But do note that our overall consensus is 30 knots, 106 millibars from all of us.
>> And we'll have to wait and see the NC decides and puts out with evidence.
>> Yep. I have this frame freezed right here. This is when dial minimum took place around 8:28 p.m. That was when we had our D our biggest dial minimum value. Since then, it has dropped down about four points. And since then, we have seen more convection starting to fire uh to flare up across other parts of the storm. So, definitely an interesting thing to watch out for. And it's only continuing to uh carry and carry over here. Look at some of these other aspects. Yep. Thank you very much for that.
>> Um holy uh but yeah, this is what we got. um this area to the north just complet quickly merged with this uh burst right here. We're seeing another area bursting here. We're seeing how many at a time are we looking at right here? We're seeing several uh areas of convection starting to fire up all at once.
That's interesting. Let's see. One, two, three. Hold on. Let me see. Four.
Technically five, six, seven. I I counted at least eight areas of convection that have started flaring up over the last 20 minutes.
Small thing. This may be small right now, but those small things turn into big problems down the line. They definitely can. We've seen that happen last night, too.
It looks to me that the it's doing its job mixing that dry air out. And it looks to me that it's starting to produce some of that con convection once that uh that demen started getting out of that area. So that's a bit of a big update right there. Eight new sources of convection, albeit small right now.
Definitely can cause some problems going forward. So we're going to want to monitor this. We're going to want to pay attention to this moving forward.
Looking at water vapor imagery. It's definitely reflecting on that as well.
Let's go ahead and refresh the page and see what we're looking at right here.
Yeah, definitely seeing some things going on uh right here. But man, oh man, uh ladies and gentlemen, what a what an interesting stream we have had tonight.
We had this big area of convection firing off in parts of Tennessee and in the deep south earlier tonight that's just bringing a huge amount of moisture into parts of the Gulf at this current point. It's helping keeping the storm uh away from the dry air at this current point in time and it's allowing for more convection to start firing off.
Actually, hold on one second real quickly. Let me see something real quickly. Hey guys, are you noticing some more a few these blips of convection starting to pop up a little bit on the drier side of the storm over here to the west near Louisiana?
>> Yes.
>> Yeah.
I want to see how this pans out. But if it can start producing more and wrap around the around some more around the storm, that's going to be some uh that's going to be really good for its long-term tropical development. So, that's going to be something we're going to want to watch. Again, small things may not seem like that much right now, but they can eventually evolve into bigger issues down the line. Look at what we saw last night. We didn't see too much convection when we started the stream. And then bam, we saw like I think we at one point saw eight or nine bursts of convection flaring up at once and that kind of painted a pretty big picture of what's going on. It's paint and we're seeing an even bigger picture being painted right now even in the last couple of minutes in the last couple of frames that we've seen. Let's take a quick look at Yep. Thank you very much.
Let's see what we're looking at right here over the last few minutes or so.
Yeah.
Yeah, definitely noticing that.
Definitely noticing these areas starting to pop up a little bit more. This area of convection is not doing too much.
Yeah, in the next watch these areas in the next 30 minutes or so. That's going to tell you if this if the system's ready to start producing convection or not. If you start seeing a decrease and uh in all of them, not too much is going on.
But if you do start seeing uh if you start seeing this continuing to blow up and consolidate into other bigger areas of convection, that's means this system is in go time. And matter of fact, in the last I'd say 10 minutes or so, yeah, ever since demon uh happened, we've dropped about seven points with the demon. I mean, the D-Max has remained about the same. Decreased slightly a little bit. That's going to increase as the night goes on. But yeah, any of those inhibiting uh factors from the solar radiation are starting to decrease pretty considerably. What are we looking at with our latest we have uh from parts of De'vorak? Not too much is going on there, but what are you guys' thoughts on the latest bursts of con uh convection or any other aspects of the storm you want to look at?
Honestly, I'll just wait for now and see the progression. That's the one thing cuz we've just about seen everything we can for now. And all we're waiting for is the next advisory to come out.
>> Yeah. The only Yeah. The only thing the only thing that could uh we could see which if only they came out early enough was the zero Z runs. Unfortunately, the Canadian and the GFS don't come out for probably another hour. So, yep.
>> Hey, uh Pat.
>> Yes, sir.
Why don't we uh pull up some model data to show to the audience uh why it's stationary right now and why we think it's going to uh go south of Louisiana?
>> Yeah. What do you want to take a look at?
>> Do you like our show our high pressures, our steering currents?
>> Yeah, let's take a look at that. We'll pull up Tropical Tidbits and we will Yeah, we will pull up Tropical Tidbits and we will Yeah, let's use the Euro and do that. We'll pull up Yeah, we'll you Yeah, we'll >> Yeah, we'll use the North Atlantic as an example. All right, so let's go ahead.
What do you want to look at? We'll just look at main sea level pressure, I think. What do you want to look at?
>> Uh, I think 500 millibar height. All right.
500 millibar height. All right.
Okay. Let's Here's the 18Z euro. We can use Oh. Oh, come on. There we go. All right. Okay. I don't need that. All right. So, yeah, let's go ahead and take a look at that. Is there anything in particular you want to emphasize, or is it just this ridge over here that's building up?
Uh, we have Yeah, we have the ridge building up over there and we do have our Bermuda high.
>> Oh, let me go ahead. Yep. There's that, too.
>> We Yep.
>> So, if you can imagine, why is our depression not really moving anywhere?
The reason why is because it's stuck in basically a lull. that trough to the north that is now over the northeast.
>> That was originally potentially the escape route to go when we when we first got invest 91L which is now tropical depression 2.
>> Why some of the models were wanting to take it across North Florida and up the north up the southeast coast.
>> Yeah.
>> That that that that ship has sailed.
>> Yep. It's now stuck in between a developing high pressure to the west and a and the high and a high pressure to the east. And it you're basically getting counter counteracting flows because high pressures go clockwise if clockwise.
>> Mhm. So you've got flow on the east side of depression of tropical depression 2 that is going more to the northwest around our Bermuda high.
>> Yep.
>> And our high pressure to the west is producing uh like southeast to to southerntherly flow on the west side of the system >> which is keeping it stuck. Yep. which is keeping it stuck. And it it also is helping a little bit to assist with our with the development of this of tropical depression too by assisting with the the spin getting that keep getting that cyclonic spin because even tropical systems and large scale low pressure systems take account that it's kind of like a gear. If you have teeth, you rotate it one way, that gear is going to want to turn. Yeah.
>> You counteracting flow, it's going to it's going to be a feedback.
All right. So now, why is it going to go west?
Uh play uh go a little bit forward in time. Yep, that's what I'm doing. This is why it's moving north a little bit initially. There is a little bit of a trough there, but look at this. This is what Delta's talking about, I think.
>> Yep. That's why it's going west >> right there.
>> And it's and it and it's strange because we're normally used to seeing tropical systems in the Gulf go more north or northeast or easterly like with Milton.
>> Yeah.
>> Last year. So this is a little bit of an instance where this high pressure is building to its east and the high pressure to its west is retracting back towards the central to the plains and I believe Colorado around there the mount uh Rocky Mountains.
>> Yep, I see it.
>> And it's also getting stronger. So its influence is getting bigger.
>> Yeah.
>> So that flow is going to start dictating.
It's going to get start feeling that westerly to southwesterly flow around that high pressure and it is going to try to go get underneath that. If it can get underneath that high, that is when you have the chance of seeing more significant development of tropical depression too, which is why some of our models >> get more excited once it gets past Louisiana heading towards Texas.
>> This is why.
Yep.
>> Yep.
>> Because Yeah. That explains that hard shift to the south from some of these models, too, because this ridge just sets up and it just yanks it fur further to the south and keeps it out into sea until it I think opens up in parts of Texas.
>> Yep.
>> That explains it. Is there anything else you wanted to add with this?
>> And the high pressure is also going to dictate because that flow that's going to push it to the south can also impart some shear. Yeah, >> it's it's a kind of a give or take. This high pressure is going to help it by keeping it further south, but it needs to get underneath that so it's not caught in too much of that flow so that it doesn't have as much shear. Could you pull up the 2 the 800 850 to 200 shear?
>> Yeah, let me go ahead and zoom in real quickly to the western Atlantic phrase because we're definitely going to need to look at the conditions here. Let's do that. Here you go.
All right. So, the Euro right now has our low pressure running into Louisiana for this run.
>> Yes.
>> But look as if it were taking the icon route where it goes south of Louisiana and more into the northwestern Gulf.
Look, see how the shear drops off in that area.
>> Yeah. That is why because you have your motion around your high pressure which is causing that large belt of high shear over Florida in the southeast.
If it can get south of Louisiana going towards Texas, that's why you're having your higherend ensembles get strong there.
>> Yes.
>> Is that is because it's not dealing with as much shear while it's underneath that high pressure.
>> No.
Yep. I know. I'm seeing it too, dude.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. I just hope that uh that kind of clarifies why this system is in no hurry to get moving.
>> Yeah, it's in no hurry to get moving.
It's staying stationary as of this current point. It's pretty much blocked by this high pressure system and this ridge that's building up. And once it does move, it's going to be shifting further over to the west.
So, it's literally a game of what's going to happen next at this current point. So, let's see. Let's take a quick gander at this. Okay.
Yeah, I'm noticing Yeah, I'm noticing several more convective bursts over the last 10 minutes, too. Not very large right now, but they're definitely getting there. as uh in particular I'm also looking at okay um storms further to the west guys they are definitely starting to pick up in intensity as well that's I mean there are small cells right now they don't mean too much right now but if they keep building on themselves you're mixing out that dry air aspect of it so but yeah it's also yeah but yeah That's kind of what we're looking at in terms of the the steering currents where it's at right now. Not too much steering currents are going on right now. I know earlier in this in this s in the systems forecast period, we were thinking this was going to impact either the panhandle or the Big Bend region and move off into the Carolinas. But as time has went on, we saw that strengthening ridge starting to build up. And pretty much now it's blocked it from moving anywhere to the uh to the north. and now it's staying in the Gulf and potentially organizing and intensifying uh as time continues to go on. We're going to want to watch out for that uh for that. We're going to want to keep a very close uh eye on that as as well. Okay.
Okay. I'm looking at this.
Uh okay. Yeah, I'm looking at something someone Storms United send me. I'm going to send this to you guys to uh to vet this. I want your guys' thoughts on this before I send show it to the audience.
Yeah. Can we Can we vet this if we can at least >> your That's definitely older.
>> Okay.
>> See if I can pull that same one up.
>> Yeah, that's from Yeah, that's from 10:00 in the morning. Okay, never mind.
That's a That was an ASCAP pass from earlier. Yeah, I just wanted to vet that real quickly before I showed anything.
because I didn't want to jump to conclusions because So, yeah.
>> Yeah, the one that I sent a little bit ago is your latest pass.
>> Yep. Thank you for vetting that for me.
I appreciate that. All right, ladies and gentlemen, if you haven't already, be sure to like the stream and subscribe to the channel if you are new. The goal, as always, is to get more people engaged with weather. We are 33 subs away from 15,500.
We've been uh gaining a lot of subs at a very fast rate recently. So, be sure you hit that subscribe button. That would mean a lot. The goal, as always, is to get more people engaged with weather.
Someone in chat was asking about the SSTs again. We're going to pull those up for them. SSTs 30 to 31° C off the coast of Louisiana around 31 degrees C, which is about 88 degrees Fahrenheit for those of you who do not use the metric system.
very piping hot water temperatures across much of the area that this system is going to be moving over at least 30° C all the way to potentially Texas right here. And things are definitely going to get a lot more interesting moving forward. And we can already see based on the satellite imagery that it is taking advantage of the warm waters and we're starting to see quite a bit more convection starting to pop up at this current point in time. But overall the water temperatures uh by themselves 30 to 31 degrees C ocean heat content where it's currently at right now about 50 to 75 OC. So it's definitely something that we are going to want to watch out for and definitely something we are going to want to pay attention to if this system moves further out uh further out to sea.
If it stays further far enough south it's going to be running into about I'd say 75 to 100 OC. If it shifts further up to the north, it's going to be tapping into those very warm waters on the Gulf Coast. And if it makes that close pass to Louisiana, that's only going to exacerbate that issue. So, just wanted to emphasize that real quick uh real quickly. We are 30 minutes away from the next NHC advisory. So, this is going to be a very big one coming up. Be sure you stay tuned for that. We are definitely excited to dissect it and see what the latest cone and the latest advisory is going to do. We kind of threw our hats in the ring earlier talking about how this might end up go how this might end up going. My tropical team here uh all these guys are saying 35 mph. I'm in the middle. I'm 50/50 on that personally. Just I want to see more data and more information before we jump that ship uh jump that ship uh real quickly. But that's what we have going on. And I will tell you and I will tell you this as we look at uh what's going on with convection pulling that up.
Yeah, definitely seeing more of it starting to develop. But I am noticing something else as well. Let me see if I can Yep. Let me see if I can pull it up too because to me this seems to be more so a mixed bag than anything. Okay, I'm looking at this. Yeah, definitely seeing more convection developing, but also seeing some of it also die off as well.
Just a little bit, but not as much.
Also, some of it shifting a bit further to the west as well. So, hold on a sec. Are you guys seeing what I'm circling right now with my cursor?
Are you guys seeing this band starting to develop right here?
>> Yeah. Is this the feeder band we were talking about, or is this further to the south?
I think I >> I'm kind of 50/50 on that. Kind of seems like >> Yeah, go ahead. Keep going.
>> Kind of 5050 on that being that large band that we saw.
>> Yeah, it's further to the south, I think.
>> Yeah, it's further to the south. That's where the feeder band is. But >> that's developing. Just >> yeah, but this just signifies that you're starting to get banding structure, which is your storm, which your depression is trying to organize.
It's already doing a decent job of that in my opinion. We just need to get some of this dry air business out of here before it starts to fully consolidate, which it's definitely doing a good job of fighting. So, we're going to want to keep a very close eye on this going forward. 28 minutes to go from the latest advisory.
Um track models that we've seen from the zero Z uh guidance right here. Looking at it either clipping or just missing Louisiana and heading towards Texas.
Intensity guidance mainly keeping it at tropical storm strength with one exception of it being a hurricane early on. So that's what we're looking at. And if we go and we also looked at the ensembles earlier tonight as well and how those have just continued to escalate and escalate and escalate as time has continued to go on. We also looked at the operational runs as well and saw that those were starting to catch up as well. So it all comes down to tonight. It all comes down to this advisory. I want to see what the NHC is going to do.
Do do we think do you guys think the NHC is going to increase their max intensity or do you think they'll hold?
>> I think they'll hold their max intensity.
>> All right, I'm going to do this real quickly. Yeah, Logan, uh, Trevor and Ltw, go ahead and throw your opinions on there while I create this poll.
>> I think they'll hold as well.
Uh, Logan.
Okay. All right. I just created a poll for the audience. Go ahead and answer that uh poll that I have pulled up for right there. I think it's I think it's loading in there. Yeah. Do you think they will increase it or do you think they will hold it? That's the main question we have for tonight. go ahead and answer that poll for right there.
We'll definitely see what happens going forward. But ultimately, that's what we're paying attention to. That's what we're going to keep an eye on as well.
Already, we're seeing a bit of a 50/50 split on the early returns of this uh poll right here of it either being an increase or a hold based on what we are seeing at this current point in time.
So, we'll keep an eye on that. We'll see if how many votes we can get uh into that poll. So, go ahead and vote in the poll if you haven't already. But in the meantime, also like the stream, subscribe to the channel if you are new.
The goal, as always, is to get more people engaged with weather. 26 subs away from 15,500. So, if we can hit that milestone tonight, that would be much appreciated. Anyway, this is what we got uh for right here. So man uh man uh but man things are definitely I would say things are definitely a little nerve uh nerve-wracking especially in the last 30 minutes before the advisory.
I would nor it's it's like that with any scenario in my opinion honestly cuz you don't Yeah. You don't know what the NHC is going to really do. You don't know how it's going to pan out and you don't know exactly what may be going on. So, okay. All right. Early return or early returns so far are saying they're actually going to increase it. 60% are saying increase 40% hold. So, we'll see. Uh we'll see what happens tonight. So, yeah, be sure to vote if you haven't already. But yeah.
All right. So, overall from everything we've gotten tonight, we're going to do one big recap before the NHC ad uh advisory. Oh, Ethan WX is on the show. Ethan, you're on the air.
>> Hey, how's it going?
>> We're doing good. We're tracking.
>> We're doing tropical depression, too.
NHC advisory is about 25 minutes away.
Uh convection is definitely starting to fire off in a few uh isolated areas.
We're going to want to watch it. It looks like it's starting to get its act together and organize, but it is starting to battle a little bit of dry air, but it is being helped by some uh some moisture over here in parts of the deep south and off the coast of Florida.
So, we're going to want to see what goes on. The latest advisory comes out soon.
And well well Ethan uh >> I mean I've been looking at it and it seems like everything I've seen points to a uh an escalating situation that this is more likely than not to be pretty significant impacts to the Gulf Coast somewhere um along the Texas Louisiana region. I mean the longer like I said the longer this thing stays overwater and keeps going west then uh then the bigger uh storm we have on our hands. So >> yeah, >> I think really it's going to come down to, you know, we're going to know, I think in the next day or two, will this thing start to turn north and at that point, you know, we'll just have a tropical storm or will it continue to just track west and meander towards Texas because with those SSTs and with sheer and dry air conditions getting better along the way, I mean, there's a pretty high ceiling for this, assuming it's able to take full advantage of its environment.
>> Yeah. Um, we got a new update >> from the NHC.
>> Yep. Uh, new update on the east the east Pacific Fo >> 45 miles per hour, 75 uh, kilometers per hour.
>> All right. So, NHC is already starting to put out advisories. They're starting with the EPAC. They will start coming towards the Atlantic with TDT uh, TD2 very soon. So, yeah. So, Ethan, I wanted to have a one-on-one with you real quickly. So is your thoughts here that you think this might have a little bit more time to get its act together and organized before it before it has to it kind of quote unquote has a decision to make?
>> I would say the next 24 to 48 hours are going to be crucial the trends during that time. I was thinking the next 12 to 24, but uh but uh 24 >> if we get to Yeah, if we get to that time frame, I think some point within that time frame, we will know for sure whether it's going to go north and just be a tropical storm or whether it's going to continue to meander all the way to, you know, Louisiana, Texas, or even Texas. In fact, I've seen some ensembles earlier that I think had it going all the way to Corpus Christi, which y I mean that would be I mean that would give it an incredible amount of time over some very warm waters.
>> Um I don't know if it's quite far south enough to take full advantage of the loop current, but obviously as we know the entire Gulf has been pretty warm. I don't know if you guys were talking about the OC earlier, but >> I'm sure that that has been building quite significantly. Yeah. Um, >> yeah, we're at about where it's at right now about 50 to 75 OC. If it does shift a bit further up to the north tonight, because there has been discussion of that, it's going to be mainly using the extremely warm waters around the Gulf Coast, particularly around particularly increasing up to around 88 degrees Fahrenheit along the coasts of Florida and especially Louisiana.
Yeah, I mean that that's more than enough that you need to get deep convection.
>> Yeah.
>> Um I think pretty much everywhere in the Gulf is currently above average um the anomalies. So I mean and this is despite El Nino conditions which is it's pretty impressive. Now I'm not saying it's going to be this year will be a repeat 2023. I think it's very different in other aspects, but >> you know, I've seen some talk of this being a lower low quantity but high quality season.
>> Um, the storms that we do get, assuming that, you know, they can take advantage of low shear and that, you know, dry air, saharan air layer isn't killing them, I think there's definitely a chance for some pretty intense storms uh this season of the few that we're going to have. And this could definitely be one of those assuming everything goes right over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Absolutely.
Absolutely. Let me ask you something, Ethan. Do you believe Tropical Depression 2 is a hurricane contender at this time?
>> So, I said yesterday that I was about 10, maybe 15%.
>> Um, honestly, and then earlier today, I would say maybe 30%.
>> At this point, I would say 45%.
And that's being conservative because again there is still absolutely the chance that it shifts north and then it goes into the into the Gulf Coast early and weakens and also you know sheer dry air like I said one of the issues that we're actually dealing with right now um just in general with weather with weather models is that a lot of the data the upper air data is missing >> basically just because um NWS offices across the continental US have not been able to carry out the balloon launch.
launches. So there's a lot of missing data. So >> in the last couple months, basically model forecasts have been a little bit less reliable and um without that that data, we're not going to know exactly how the dry air will will evolve and the shear. So, um, at this point, next 24 to 48 hours are crucial because if it can avoid turning into the Gulf, I mean, if it can avoid that northerly turn into the coast um, within the next day or two, >> then it's going to meander westward. And at that point, if that happens, then I give it a very high chance of becoming a hurricane. At that point, I would probably say if that is what we see happen, I would say at that point, almost certainly.
>> All right.
Yeah, definitely seems like everybody's increasing.
Okay, I think I saw the Euro on Yeah, I think I we saw the Euro ensembles earlier. Uh, Delta. Yeah, we saw that on stream earlier. Definitely.
>> All right, we got another update.
>> The 18Z.
>> Yeah, what's up?
>> Uh, >> yeah, I think we saw those earlier if I'm not mistaken. Let me see.
Yeah, I think we did.
Yeah, we I'm pretty sure we did. But let's take a look at them again.
Yeah, the 18Z euro. Um, a lot of the very strong ones have this heading towards like have this a lot of the very strong ones have it heading towards Texas and missing Louisiana entirely.
seems to be a split in the models where if it intensifies quick uh kind of quickly um then you're going to have a situation where this just breaks further to the west for right here. So that is definitely a situation we are going to want to watch for sure.
Yeah, I'm very curious to see what the ZeroZ will say coming tonight with all the operationals and the ensembles as well.
We'll have to see. We'll have to see.
Unfortunately, recon data isn't out in this, which kind of sucks, honestly, but it is what it is. But >> I mean, we do have to keep in mind at this point in time, this is a barely closed low that happens to be occasionally sprouting convection. It's still not a very strong system.
>> Yeah. Um, so it's got a long way to go in terms of development, but I would say tonight and especially tomorrow night's DAL maximum cycles will be very interesting because if we can get sustained convection by that point and we can get a more westward track, that is the perfect combo right there.
>> Absolutely. Like I said, if we get the westward track, especially if it misses Louisiana entirely, then I would almost guarantee that this thing becomes a hurricane just because it's going to be sitting right under the ridge. Wind shear is going to be minimal. The dry air won't be a problem at that point.
>> No.
>> I mean, if that is what happens, then I don't see any reason it can't be a hurricane. But as I said, my overall estimate is or my I'm going 45% on it just because we're very early in the process and there's still a lot that could essentially go wrong with the storm's development. But I would say my odds, like I said, I said 15% yesterday, three times that today. 45%.
>> Yeah. All right, Ethan, thank you very much.
>> What's up?
>> We got another update. Oh, and we got another update on the Atlantic. We'll be on that a second.
LN came out 50 miles per hour.
>> That's not That's on the E-PAC, right?
Yep. For Alida. Yeah.
>> Okay.
>> Just got to update the ent about number two.
>> All right.
>> 30 miles per hour still.
>> They're still holding at 30.
>> Yep.
>> Okay.
Oh, they did it. They did it. Held at 30,0008. moving northn northwest at 3 mph.
All right.
Okay. They still have tropical storm watches in effect.
Okay. Storm surge. Not too much has changed. We got to see the discussion and I want to see what the cone will look like in the few uh down the line.
We don't have that just yet. Those will come up in a few minutes. But ladies and gentlemen, um, they held they held they held at a,000 at 30 at 1,08.
Um, definitely an interesting situation for sure.
Yeah, the graphics going to come out. I want to see it because I want to see what the NHC is doing with it.
because Yeah. So, it's moving to the northnorthwest at 3 miles per hour.
Okay, we have the discussion.
Yep, they're at 60 m. They are at 60 mph. They have held their max intensity.
Let's go ahead and read this out and see if the cone produces in a few minutes.
This depression is producing a small area of deep convection near the north and apparent center with the other modest bands mostly in the eastern semicircle. Since the various satellite intensity estimates are unchanged and nearly surface observations hasn't reported much much more than 20 knots, they're going to keep it at 25 for this intensity. This is consistent with the a just re received partial scatterometer pass which is the ascat we saw. The system is drifting to the northnorthwest caught in light steering between a ridge over the western Atlantic and one over the south central US. We were talking about this earlier. Most of the model guidance suggests that the slow motion with a turn to the west northwest will continue early this week and the cyclones outer bands could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida panhandle beginning late Monday. A turn to the west and increase in forward speed are forecast late on Tuesday as the ridge over the US builds eastward causing the system to move along or just offshore the northwestern Gulf Coast during the middle to later portions of this week.
The track has been shifted a bit to the north in the short term bending uh but blending back with the previous forecast on day two then a bit to the south at the long term. This consistent is consistent with the latest Google DeepMind solution. So, we were kind of looking at this with the models. Initially, it's shifting further up. They're shifting further up to the north and then when the ridge starts building, it just gets yanked further back to the south.
So, that is interesting to say the very least.
So, I'll give my opinion in just a couple of minutes, but here's what we got. Only slow strengthening of the system is expected due to its broad structure, pockets of mid-level dry air, and northeasterly vertical wind shear.
Despite very warm waters, this cyclone is still forecast to be a tropical storm on Monday when it's offshore the Florida panhandle. An increase in shear is expected by Tuesday, which could cause the intensity to flatline along with some land interaction. This is a challenging forecast because of the expected moderate sheer conditions which are known to result in less predictable outcomes. For instance, reliable models are uh are spread from near dissipation by the by the euro and halves guidance to near hurricane strength by the latest HVAR Hmon runs. The NHC forecast continues to lie in between the solutions, but it should be mentioned that I don't give that much confidence in this prediction given the above factors.
This is interesting right here. That's the latest that we got. Let's take a look at our graphics.
Let's pull this up. Um, it is not out on here. Let me see if it's on Tropical Tidbits at all. Yes, it is. Yes, it is.
Um, looking at this, I want to compare this with the previous cone as well. Let's see.
>> Wow, that's a bit south. Yeah. Okay.
Yeah. As far as >> I don't really see where it's gone north in the short short term.
>> What's up?
>> Basically, this is what I called out.
>> Yeah. Um, >> looking at this, um, yeah, a bit of a northern shift, but when that ridge builds up, the NHC wants this to only clip the Mississippi River Delta.
Um, if that's true and this system starts organizing before it gets to Louisiana and intensifies, it's not going to do jack to that.
>> Nope.
>> Not at all. Because the the mouth of the Mississippi River like this on that part of Louisiana, it's probably going to be a situation on the Delta. It makes multiple landfalls and that's going to be something we're going to want to watch. It's not going to weaken it that much unless the windshar starts getting into it.
That's my thoughts on it. And here is my opinion based on what I have seen so far. Overall, I overall based on the northern shift, I think shortterm, given what I've seen tonight, I think that's okay. Longterm, I'm okay with the Track 2, mainly because of the fact that this ridge is still trending stronger and stronger and stronger. In terms of the intensity, I'm a little split on that.
But I don't think like but I will say this kind of track in my opinion based on what I'm seeing would favor more strengthening on the second half of the forecast than the first half of the forecast. And the reason for that is as the system starts to speed up uh speed up, we were looking at the windshare earlier with Delta.
There is a there is a bit of a pocket of low windchar that the system would be running into with this track and that could allow for some strengthening to happen.
It's still very much a hurricane contender in my opinion. In terms of when it will happen, I it's hard to say.
Personally, I don't see it being a hurricane before it hits Louis hits the m the Mississippi River, but I do definitely see it if it hits Texas.
That's my personal opinion on it. So, that's kind of my my thoughts on that.
Um, yeah, that track is horrible. That land interaction won't do anything to it in Louisiana. Absolutely not. No, it won't. And it also gives it a bit further of a southward shift. So, it can basically use the down sheer track to allow for this system to potentially organize and intensify after the fact.
So, Not to mention um that this track if it goes down the center line >> could actually be just as good for the system as a farther offshore because with the that section of Louisiana is all bayus. It's almost kind of like the Florida Everglades. It's more of an inland >> Yeah.
>> like ocean like brown ocean. Yep. kind of landscape than like >> Yeah. It's generous to call the land in southern Louisiana land because it's mostly Bayou.
>> Yeah.
>> But the thing that is is it's going to be hotter. It's going to be warmer than just like 10 miles offshore.
>> Yeah.
>> Because it's it's shelf water, >> which is actually >> It also has moisture influence from all the flooding from Arthur.
>> Yep. It has more it it would likely have more of a higher of a little bit higher quality fuel if it takes that track just because of the warmer shelf waters.
Obviously, if it was moving slow over that, it would be detrimental to it.
>> Yeah.
>> But since it's going to be speeding up, it's going to be kind of like I'm just going to take a sip of gas and keep going.
>> Yeah, it looks like it. And the thing is too, um, yeah, I'm not, yeah, I'm again, I'm not personally opposed to the see the track to it personally, given what I've seen tonight.
Also, I think this track also gives this system more time, too.
>> It gives it more time to organize and consolidate.
I think if we see a situation where it devel it takes its time doesn't become a tropical storm until tomorrow afternoon it's not going to do anything do any harm to it in any in any sense I would in any sense with this system I would rather trade stren trade strength for organization because down the line you're going to have time for strengthening now at least early on I to trade strengthening for organization if uh for this system. And it looks to me that there's a good chance it might actually do that.
So that's what I'm thinking. And of course, Dapia decided it would now was the right time to go down error 404. Um so that sucks.
So that's Yeah. What's up?
>> Sorry for the interruption.
>> Go for it. Um, I just want to quickly put my thoughts in.
>> Yeah, sure.
>> Uh, I going looking back at the new cone.
>> Yeah.
>> I honestly think um that actually supports the more southern tracks in the OZ Oz runs like you know those spaghett.
>> Yeah. recently looked at.
>> Yep.
>> I think those southern I think the NFC is honestly hinting at more of like a bias to the southern motion.
>> Yeah.
>> Not even hitting land cuz every single time when we come back to it, it's just going more south >> in the long term. Absolutely.
>> Yeah. And I could honestly up my chances for a hurricane.
Um like from 15 to like 30.
>> Yeah.
>> Like this thing could could become pretty good. And like you said, brown ocean effect is also a factor.
>> All right. So All right. Someone in chat was saying, "I live in southeastern Louisiana. Uh I live in southeastern Louisiana. Um yeah, Terraorn Parish where I we seem to have hurricane magnet." In fact, I predict a cat one will ride our coast. Uh like and then sent an emoji emoji right there. So, I will tell you this. If it becomes a hurricane before it hits Louisiana, um it's there's nothing that's going to stop it right there. It clips the mouth of the Mississippi River and then it moves into even warmer waters.
So, if that were to happen, geez, that that would just make things 10 times worse. Do I think it's going to happen right now? Not really. I think maybe 60 m hour is where I'm thinking this will go. But if it takes that further southward track, the second half of this system's lifetime is going to be a good area for rap. Not not not what I was about to say, but pretty good intensification.
So, yeah, that's what we got. We're 20 subs away from Yeah, we're 20 subs away from 15,500. Be sure to smash that subscribe button if you are new and like the stream as well. So, >> yeah, here another question, Pat. What do you say to the people who say it's not going to be a hurricane confidently?
I see where they're coming from. To be honest with you, this is a tricky forecast. You're relying on uh you're relying on for those who aren't uh conf or confident it's not going to happen, you're relying on a couple of things. A you're relying on the windshare down the line and B you're relying on land interaction. Latest cone land interaction in my opinion uh from what I have from what I've seen isn't going to do much to this system. And the windshare from what we saw previously.
Let me see if I can pull it up real quickly. I know we talked about earlier.
Yep, perfect. This is exactly what I was looking for. For the windshare, what I'm seeing earlier, a lot of it is coming from the east. Actually, that ridge is keeping a lot of the windshar over here to the north. If this system can move out and say this system can move further to the west and stay ahead of this shear behind it, it's going to have a much better shot of tropical de of a potential hurricane intensity at that current point, especially on the second half. This is let's see this is 84.
Let's go to 72 hours out and see where the NHC forecast puts this. So that's what we're looking at. this completely collapses right here uh by the after 72 hours and then looking at the latest cone it puts it around this region right here. So it's going to be ahead of the windshare from what I've seen. Yeah, I'm looking >> Yeah, >> not to mention we also need to take into account storm direction and sheer vector.
>> Yeah, absolutely. you know, >> starts moving more south of west like some of the ensembles are hinting.
>> Yeah.
>> The shear could actually help the storm versus hinder it.
>> Yes. At the Yeah. D. Yeah. Dur. Yeah.
Especially if it's at the right angle.
Would you I'm not sure if this is a good angle for it or not. What do you think, Delta?
>> Uh, go a little bit further in time.
like as if uh that if it if it gets strong enough that it starts feeling that ridge more and it starts feeling that upper level uh upper level air uh air currents, it's going to want to pull more to the south.
>> All right.
>> So, that potentially could be a good vector if it can get strong enough to to feel that influence.
>> Okay.
All right. Just thought I'd get your opinion on that. I heard on I saw in the chat of according to what I've seen is the ic is the icon uh is starting to come out. Let's see if it Let me check pivotal weather because that is one I really want to pay attention to. Not necessarily because uh not necessarily because it's a good model, but because Oh, yeah. that is coming out, but because of the outlandish guidance and the outlandish model run we had the 18Z, I want to see what the Z does. I'm hoping it's a lot more conservative.
Okay, this is what we got for the 18Z. Z shifted a bit further up to the north.
Let's go to 12 hours out then we'll keep going. Oh, that's the 18. That's the 18. That's the 18.
Yeah, let's keep going. Going 1,0706 where we at 18Z, 106 further to the south and more convection, 106 36 hours. Okay, 48 hours out, 105,0002.
Okay, so Icon is shifting a bit further up to the north. It's finally crashing down to reality a little bit more, it seems. So that is some good news for right now. So, okay.
Okay. So, Okay. So, that's what we're looking at.
Even looking at Let's look at the 12Z for context. As a matter of fact, yeah, it's weaker than the 12Z from the 0 from yesterday. A bit weaker from the Z.
Okay. So, the Icon's definitely started to finally starting to crash down to reality a little bit, thankfully. So yeah, a bit more of a northern guidance right here initially. So that's okay. 60 hours is out, 105 mibars, 101.
But interestingly, from the 18Z, it's actually a bit further to the south and to the east.
So, it looks to me that it pulls to the north initially and then it's uh and then it starts to get a bit further to the south. So, let me see this. Yeah, it gets pulled up to the north and then it just moves due west after that before getting yanked back down.
So, that is interesting. That is definitely interesting right there.
So, >> I would like to wait until the whole run comes out to see.
>> Yeah, 100%. I agree with you >> because it go the 18Z. It went ballistic after it left Louisiana.
>> Yep. I want to see what it does the second half.
So, yeah, that's that high pressure system starting to build in right there for those of you wondering.
So, let me refresh that. We're 60 hours out. We'll just wait for more of the icon to come in. What else is GFS isn't in yet. NAM's in art. The the RDPS not interested. The HERS, I'm not too interested in that. Okay. The icon EPS.
Oh, the icons come. Oh, never mind.
That's that's the same thing. That's the icon ensembles, I think.
So yeah, it's but yeah, that's definitely an interesting situation right there.
Let's I want to check what the windshare is looking like around 60 hours out just for my curiosity.
60 hours out. Yeah, there is some starting to build up towards the uh towards the back of it. But if it can stay a as long as it stays ahead of it, it's not going to have too many problems uh with in terms of organization. It might keep the convection away from the coast right here, but it's not going to have too many issues in terms of its organizational development. 66 hours, 07. Okay. It's starting to shift a little bit further to uh Yeah. Okay.
Yeah, the icon.
Yeah, the icon at ZeroZ is much weaker than it was at 18Z. It's It's falling back to earth, it seems, for right now.
So, I can at least say there's some pretty decent news going on with that. So, yeah.
All right.
Okay, cool.
>> I'm also interested to see what the track would look like.
>> Yeah, me too. Okay, Stapia, can you please Okay, you're not going to open back up for me. Oh, jeez.
Looks like the servers from that crashed again.
Yeah.
All right. Meanwhile, looking at Okay, this is interesting. I'm going to need to see mid to mid analysis, but it looks like in the eastern half of the semicircle, we're definitely seeing some more convection starting to pop up and get organized. Western half, you're seeing those cells I was mentioning earlier starting to uh build up and starting to connect and start fighting some of this dry air. Okay.
Yeah, someone chat's talking about tropical tidbits. Yeah, I'm I've been watching it. I've been watching it. Um, I just use Dapia because that gives us a better idea of what we're looking at.
But yeah, I am starting to see that too.
I am starting to see more convection on that. So, thanks for the heads up. But, come on, Dappia.
That's okay.
All right. 72 hours out. Oh, 72 hours out. That gets yanked. It's a lot weaker, but it gets yanked further south, much earlier, a little bit earlier and a little bit further away from the coast than previously.
>> Yeah, it's a we are seeing an eastward shift over here.
>> Yeah, we'll see what happen. Uh we'll see what happens.
We'll see what happen. Let's look at this.
Okay. Not too much with D'vorak. I'm not surprised. Winchir values. Not too much has changed.
Oh, come on. Oh, come on.
But yeah, thoughts from what you guys have heard over uh for the last say 20 minutes.
I mean, I think the threat is definitely rising for uh the Gulf Coast, especially Louisiana and Texas. Honestly, if you are in Texas, especially Houston to Corpus Christi, >> keep an eye on this. All right, this may it might not happen. All right, we're still days away, but if you are in those in those reg those cities or anywhere in between, I mean, you definitely need to be keeping an eye on this system because if it continues on that westward track, that could really uh this could really become a major threat for the Texas coast. Honestly, rivaling or even more severe than barrel in 2024. Um, now obviously like I said, we're still very early in the process. There's no, you know, we can't say exactly whether or not that'll happen right now, but the potential is there. So, if you're in those regions, um, just pay attention to this. Now, it could obviously bust and it could turn into the into the Gulf Coast very early and, you know, that would be wonderful. Then we would see no impacts, but for Texas, Louisiana, um, and we wouldn't see a hurricane landfall.
But if it continues on this track, that unfortunately seems increasingly likely.
Um then we could definitely be seeing some pretty pretty serious impacts and this could definitely be one of the uh the big the major storms of 2026. So, >> yep.
>> Uh just be vigilant. Just pay attention to it over the next couple days is is all I would ask for people living in Texas and parts of Louisiana.
>> Yep. Same here. Thank you very much for that, Ethan. Okay, let's look at the 18Z. All right, the icon's coming uh coming back down to Earth, but it's interestingly also further to the east than what the 18Z was showing. So, yeah, the Yeah, the icon was just starting to intensify right as it got off Louisiana on the 18Z. So yeah, we'll have to see what h we'll have to see what happens for sure.
>> Um Pat.
>> Yes, sir.
>> Can you go back to um IR or like um Well, you had it before >> this.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. What what's up? Um, if you look near the center, you could see confection firing up more near near like Appalachiccola.
>> Yeah.
>> Or Yeah.
>> Yep. I see what you're talking about.
>> Yeah. Do you see like a I don't know if that's due to sheer or my eyes deceive me. Is that southward shift?
>> Where at? I'm seeing like a little like a bib like a if you like follow some of the clouds it looks a bit southern just maybe that's sheer I think >> I don't know what what we're looking at um jeez >> oh >> if Dapia would actually Yeah if Dapia actually got stuff going on but >> oh never mind that's just sheer >> okay >> all right Okay, cool. Okay, the icon is interesting. All right, it's Yeah, the icon has this a as a broad as a broad system right here.
Okay, cool.
All right.
Yeah, we'll see what hap uh we'll see what happens uh going forward. But overall from tonight uh if only Dappy jeez.
Okay.
Me see if I can pull this up on here.
Okay. Okay. Never mind. We're not seeing Okay. Nope. Never. Uh never mind. All right. I'm going to stop rambling. Uh I'm going to stop rambling about this.
Based on everything we've seen tonight, what are you guys' overall thoughts that this is uh still a very fluid um situation and there is there's still the potential >> right >> for you with the ensembles for a big her uh big potentially major hurricane. But there is also about equal confidence that this could just be just like a weak or moderate strength tropical storm that just buries itself into the >> into the Gulf Coat.
>> Yeah, I say the same. I still say regardless of all that, this is still very much a growing threat.
Yeah, it's one of those high ceilings but very low floors.
>> Yep.
Yeah. All right. Anything else?
All right. Cool. All right, ladies and gentlemen. I think we've covered pretty much every We've pretty much covered everything for tonight. Um, we're going to go ahead and end the stream here.
Thank you all for tuning in. This was a very successful stream. I really appreciate you all coming out to join us tonight. Be sure to like the stream, subscribe to the channel if you are new.
Goal, as always, is to get more people engaged with weather. If you'd like to help out, hang out, feel free to join the Storms United Discord server. The link to that is in the pin chat and in the description down below for those of you watching the stream later down the line. We are a we are a few subs away. I think we are 17 sub 16 subscribers away from 15,500. Let's see if we can get that done tonight. Uh whether the stream stream ends or it's after the uh we put the VOD up. But thank you very much.
Have a wonderful What's up?
>> General question. Uh are some of our channels able to get promoted before the end? What's up?
>> Are some of our channels and are being promoted?
>> Yeah, I'll uh Yeah, I'll put them in.
Yeah, I'll put them in in the chat and I'll put them in the description.
>> Don't forget Storms United Instagram, Storms United, which we just >> Yeah, I'll put all Yeah, I'll put all that in the description and I'll put that in the And so that way >> I'll also add >> Yeah.
>> Yeah. I'll also add that um with Storms United, we are planning to make um social media accounts on Instagram, Facebook, and probably X as well. So definitely be on the lookout for those because once those are up and running, they will we'll be posting on them regularly and sharing more information with you guys.
>> Yeah, >> they are up, Ethan.
>> Well, some of them are Instagram.
>> The Instagram the Instagram um group is up, but yeah, not the account. Yeah, but we need like an actual page. So, as soon as that's up, you know, then we'll we'll be able to extend our um all of our stuff to the public. But >> yeah, thank you guys for tuning in and definitely um >> definitely subscribe to Pat. He does a lot for all of us. And then >> yeah, >> join the Storms United Discord server um to get some behind thescenes takes and to discuss the uh the situation with other with some other people. But yeah, with that being said, um >> we're going to end it here.
>> I guess we'll end it here for tonight.
>> All right. Thank you everybody for joining. Um have a wonderful night.
Stay safe.
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