BREAKING - Nocturnal Tornado & Extreme Flooding Threat LIVE

[00:00:03]Alrighty friends.

[00:00:07]What's going on y'all?

[00:00:09]Good morning. Good morning. I hope everyone is having a fabulous fabulous morning out there.

[00:00:16]Uh so we like I was saying earlier we were probably going to do some live coverage here this or this morning I should say and well I decided to to be here at least for a little bit. I don't think we're going to need like super long coverage tonight cuz uh storms are kind of pushing through that slight risk now.

[00:00:33]But there is still potential, you know, actually the reason I really went live is because um on some of these warnings that we have here right now, uh they actually have tornado possible tags on them.

[00:00:44]Um and that tornado threat is still uh going on here at the moment. So um let's see here.

[00:00:52]Yeah, so the one over here we have a couple of storms, a couple severe storms. Both of these have tornado possible tags on them.

[00:00:57]Uh once again does not necessarily mean that there's going to be tornadic activity on them. It just means, hey, couple tornadoes are basically just saying that, you know, be aware because tornadoes can quickly develop from these storms, but um if they were in immediate danger for tornadoes, they would they would have those warnings on them.

[00:01:15]But uh good evening or good good morning I should say.

[00:01:20]Uh what's up Dylan? Good to see you, dude.

[00:01:22]How is mesoanalysis looking on the lower level jet and cape? Uh let me look actually. Let me pull up mesoanalysis.

[00:01:29]Let's see here. I'm going to bring it up here just to kind of look at the general environment here.

[00:01:34]Uh let's do that. All right, let's go to the southeast. So yeah, we kind of have the remnants of this uh uh tropical storm that we had.

[00:01:44]Uh remnants of Arthur. So yeah, here's here's where the storms are currently popping off mostly across Florida and Georgia here.

[00:01:50]Uh it looks like we have a decent amount of cape, you know, over a thousand joules per kilogram. Uh lower level jet will do 850 analysis.

[00:01:59]We have about a 30 35 knot lower level jet there. I mean, it's pretty decent.

[00:02:04]Let's see here, mid level flow.

[00:02:06]Slightly more perpendicular. Um maybe a little stronger at at 20,000 ft.

[00:02:12]Um so I mean, there's definitely that potential.

[00:02:15]Here, let me uh pull up our hodograph. Hey, you see there's a little bit of curvature there on our hodographs out there.

[00:02:21]Uh as far as our skew-T plots go, um got a little bit of veering, decent wind shear down here.

[00:02:27]Yeah. So, definitely got to keep a close eye on the environment.

[00:02:32]What's up, Roby?

[00:02:33]Saying busy weather pattern lately.

[00:02:35]Yeah, it's been it's been super super active, unfortunately. We've been just seeing so much activity here lately. You know, we obviously had um you know, that tropical storm Arthur that made landfall yesterday or now the day before. Um and of course, we also had that uh you know, that uh tornado outbreak here yesterday as well. Uh or the day before.

[00:02:57]But um but yeah, definitely it's been very very active here lately, unfortunately. But yeah, we got a really big flooding threat still going on here.

[00:03:07]Um if we hop over to the day one uh outlook here.

[00:03:12]Uh as far as the excessive rainfall goes, we uh we still do have a high risk here for flooding uh for lower Alabama uh including Mobile um out there by Green uh Greenville, Troy, Monroeville, uh Chatham in southern Alabama.

[00:03:26]Uh then of course, bits here of southern uh Mississippi.

[00:03:30]Kind of north of Gulfport in that high risk uh for Hattiesburg, Waynesboro. Uh let's see here, Wiggins and Lucedale. Um so that's that's the high risk, you know, that's where we have at least a 70% chance of flooding here. Uh which is crazy. We even have a little bit of Florida included, too, out there by the far western panhandle, just north of Pensacola.

[00:03:51]Um out there by like Milton and uh let's see, your Century and Jay, uh, Crestview and Laurel Hill.

[00:03:58]So, that's where we have, like I said, at least a 70% chance of flooding.

[00:04:02]Definitely a big flooding threat. And then we also have the big moderate, too, you know, that goes all the way up in the Atlanta, Georgia, um, you know, Macon, Georgia, of course, Albany, Bainbridge, Montgomery, Alabama, Birmingham, Alabama, uh, just south of Jackson here, a little bit of, uh, you know, far southeastern Louisiana, too, by like Franklinton, uh, and Covington.

[00:04:21]And you know, the red area, this is that moderate risk for today. This is where we have, you know, at least a 40% chance of flooding. So, really significant concern there, too. Then we have a really big slight risk here, you know, a level two flooding threat here in the yellow. I mean, that includes a lot of, like, uh, you know, Tennessee, Kentucky, it goes up into like West Virginia, Arkansas, uh, another uh, level two threat here for bits of Texas, lower Oklahoma. Um, and so, the yellow areas, yeah, that's where we have, like I said, at least a 15% chance of flooding here.

[00:04:48]So, still, I mean, a pretty decent concern as far as flooding goes. Um, and then we have the marginal, you know, that level one threat here for flooding, which that's at least a 5% chance of flooding.

[00:04:58]So, a little bit less probability out there, of course, but, you know, all these areas definitely still have potential of flooding, and it's it's been pretty crazy. Absolutely.

[00:05:07]What's up, I hate space? Good to see you, friend. Hope you are well. Good to see you. Good to see you.

[00:05:13]Um, let's see, Dylan says we had some big, uh, flooding in Pulaski County, Kentucky today. Uh, I'm in Somerset. Got you. Yeah, Kentucky does have, uh, still that, um, you know, that flooding threat out there, especially specifically for a lot of the central and lower portions of Kentucky. Um, you know, definitely in, uh, in that kind of risk there.

[00:05:33]Did I see the pictures you posted earlier? I did. I did. I didn't get to reply to them, but I did see them earlier. Um, I do have my Discord up if you want me to show them on stream.

[00:05:43]Um, that's if you want me to, of course. If you do, if you do.

[00:05:48]But yeah, that looks like a pretty decent um little line of storm she got there.

[00:05:53]Anyways, let's hop back to current radar here, y'all.

[00:05:56]Uh we're going to take a look at the current warnings and all. We have a couple of uh severe thunderstorm warnings in effect right now.

[00:06:01]Um a lot of these are kind of rolling through uh well, one of them's rolling through the panhandle of Florida.

[00:06:07]Actually coming up here pretty soon on Tallahassee.

[00:06:10]Um Tallahassee's not in the warning yet, but uh Tallahassee could be included in it in the future. Um but this includes like Hosford, um let's see after that by like Altha.

[00:06:21]Uh let's see here, Mexico Beach included as well. And it even includes a bit of southwestern Georgia, you know, the far southwestern corner uh for Bainbridge and uh you know, Attapulgus, I think it is. Uh this is warned for 60 mph wind gusts uh as well as uh penny-sized hail here.

[00:06:39]So, that's that's kind of as far as the uh Um I'm going to turn that off here. I'm probably going to be a little dark here, but I hate having that light shining in my face.

[00:06:49]Uh but it is for 60 mph wind gusts and uh penny-sized hail here. Uh then up in north, you know, for lower Georgia, uh we have another severe thunderstorm warning for also 60 mph wind gusts penny hail for uh Lenox, um let's see, Enigma, uh Fitzgerald, and Tifton. Yep, so this is once again, it's also for 60 uh mph wind gusts and 0.75 in hail. There's the current radar view. So, I'm kind of just watching this uh this line here.

[00:07:20]Uh what's up, Overbuilt? Good to see you.

[00:07:23]Let's see, always feel free to share pictures. Uh we didn't really get the storms, but I thought uh I was going to watch a nader from it. Or no, nader form.

[00:07:31]Here, I'll go ahead and show you guys um this right here. So, this is a photo that Robby took um who's in our chat here.

[00:07:39]Uh so, when when was this and where was this at?

[00:07:43]I mean, look at that. You got some scud clouds and everything, man. That's beautiful.

[00:07:47]Absolutely beautiful.

[00:07:50]Yeah, I mean, I love me a good storm.

[00:07:51]That's one of the photos that that Roby sent in to us here.

[00:07:55]Here's the other one.

[00:07:59]This is the other one that Roby sent in to us, too.

[00:08:02]Yeah, I really like that first image.

[00:08:03]That one was pretty crazy. Pretty crazy.

[00:08:08]But, uh thanks for sharing, Roby.

[00:08:09]Appreciate it. If you guys want to join our Discord, uh you all can in the description.

[00:08:15]A few hours ago in Southwest Missouri.

[00:08:17]Got you. Got you. Got you.

[00:08:20]All right. So, like I said, if you're just now tuning in, we're pretty much just watching this uh this line of storms roll through. There still is a tornado threat, unfortunately. Um which is really kind of why I wanted to go live. Uh these uh two warnings we have here are They do have tornado possible tags, so I kind of need to keep a close eye on them.

[00:08:36]Um cuz obviously, you know, being night time is a big big problem, you know, cuz you can't really see anything really going on and um you know, there there's always that potential.

[00:08:47]Um you know, considering that we're still in that risk area.

[00:08:52]Yeah, I mean, like little areas like these we need to watch closely. Um I mean, cuz they could spin up pretty quickly. They sure can.

[00:09:02]So, if any warnings do get issued, we'll definitely let you know. I think KVAX is out of uh commission here.

[00:09:09]We might have to go over here towards Macon radar.

[00:09:14]Yeah, I'm not seeing a whole lot in this one as far as like rotation goes. Uh the one up by Enigma in Tifton, Georgia.

[00:09:21]But, it does have 60 mph winds and penny hail on that.

[00:09:28]Um Taylor, I can't do zip codes. If you can give me the town name and the state, it it would work better. Cuz yeah, the program here, it does not accept zip codes, unfortunately. The old one I used to I used did, but uh the new one doesn't. I need to I need to contact uh I still need to get on that and contact the Debs and see if they can allow me to do the zip codes here.

[00:09:48]Um what's up, Carrot? Good to see you, friend. Saying, "Hey Andrew, how you doing?" I'm doing all right. Little tired, but I wanted to be here for you guys tonight, so uh that's why we are here chilling for a little bit. I'm not sure how long we're going to be live, but I'm just going to go as long as I can until I pretty much pass out, so.

[00:10:05]>> [laughter and gasps] >> But but absolutely absolutely.

[00:10:10]Uh see, Overbuilt, you joined the uh Discord. I love that truck, dude. I There's just something about old '70s Ford pickups, man.

[00:10:17]I love them. Love them. Love them. Love them.

[00:10:21]I know it's a little off topic, but your profile picture made me it made me uh remember that.

[00:10:30]Beautiful truck.

[00:10:32]What I think that's like what, a '70 '78?

[00:10:36]F250? Anyways.

[00:10:38]Oh, well off well off topic.

[00:10:39]>> [laughter] >> All right, Taylor, I got you, friend.

[00:10:43]You said Milledgeville, Tennessee. Uh let's see here.

[00:10:49]Um let me pull this up.

[00:10:54]Milledgeville, Tennessee.

[00:10:56]Yeah, I think you're good as far as severe weather goes here uh for the next little bit.

[00:11:01]Like uh if we hop over to the day one outlook, yeah, so there's really not much going on here today. Um tomorrow, let's see here. Yeah, we're good tomorrow. Not even a general thunderstorm threat here. And in day three, we're good. Yeah. Nothing to worry about. Nothing severe going on.

[00:11:18]They They also don't have anything in the extended range, either, so you're good, friend. Um yeah, nothing big, nothing severe for your area. I mean, if there's something specifically you want me to look at, uh let me know.

[00:11:27]But um and that goes for all of you guys, too. If you want me to look at specific things, then then let me know, but um you know, as far as it goes here, I mean um for you up here in Tennessee, we're we're fine. We're going to be okay.

[00:11:40]Um Taylor, thanks for the gold coin, friend. Appreciate that. Thank you for the support.

[00:11:45]Um so, let's take a minute to hop over here cuz I do want to look at the tropics because um once again, I mean, there is a chance this thing could redevelop, you know, uh the remains of Arthur, you know, that's currently causing this significant um flooding concern in the south here, you know, we've we've seen so much rainfall down there. It's just been crazy.

[00:12:04]Uh you know, catastrophic flooding's been going on for, you know, a lot of like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, especially. That's really the um really the hot spot, you know, as far as that goes.

[00:12:15]Um but yeah, so they they do have a low chance of development. Um you know, it could turn back into a either a subtropical or a tropical cyclone again, but it's a 10% chance for now. I mean, it's worth mentioning, you know, cuz there is that possibility, but yeah, I mean, it's pretty pretty unlikely here.

[00:12:37]Um let's see here. Yes, it's a '78. I used to have one just like it, but I do have a 1977 F-350 now.

[00:12:44]Oh, that's awesome.

[00:12:45]That's awesome.

[00:12:48]Um it should let you over. I don't know why it's not. What's up, Scott? Good to see you, friend.

[00:12:52]Taylor, thanks for the flow state, friend. Appreciate that.

[00:12:57]Appreciate appreciate.

[00:12:59]Um April wants me to look at Bainbridge, Georgia. Of course, friend. Let me pull it up here. So, first of all, real quickly, um you can see where we have some of the heaviest of the convection.

[00:13:06]This was as of earlier.

[00:13:07]Um you know, if we go into satellite imagery here, right now, you can see we have a bit of convection over like lower Mississippi.

[00:13:14]Um of course, bits of Georgia, you know, where we're watching that line here and bits of uh you know, the panhandle of Florida.

[00:13:20]Um but yeah, I got you, April. Let me pull up your area here. Oh, you're really far our You know what? I think you're actually in that severe thunderstorm warning.

[00:13:29]Uh let's hop back to radar.

[00:13:32]Yeah, I'm pretty sure you're actually in that. But, the good news is that once this line passes you, um your threat for severe weather should be pretty much over. Yeah, so you're kind of getting the worst of it now. Um the warning is still there for 46 minutes. Um and they have maximum winds on that storm up to 60 mph. Uh we could see maybe some small hail to penny size, which, you know, like I mentioned, it's not really um super uh super big of a concern, really. Um they do have a tour possible tag. I mean, like I said, it doesn't mean that there's an immediate danger for tornadoes. It just means to keep an eye on it. Um let me hop over to velocity here. I mean, yeah, I mean, looking at velocity, I'm not seeing any rotation over there by you.

[00:14:10]Um I mean, I'm I'm going to keep scanning velocity every once in a while just to kind of keep uh keep an eye on it. But, yeah, the really just the main thing is going to be those gusty winds, um which could be up to 60 mph.

[00:14:23]But, yeah, uh severe thunderstorm warning in effect for the next 45 minutes. Expires at 1:45 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

[00:14:33]Uh let's hop back over to Georgia.

[00:14:36]Uh do you want me to look at your wrist, too? I mean, I'm a pretty much, like I said, once this moves through, there's probably really no reason to, but once this pushes through, then, you know, that threat should be pretty much over.

[00:14:46]Um yeah, but hopping back over here to Georgia.

[00:14:49]Um or further South Central Georgia.

[00:14:51]Like I said, you can kind of see this big line of storms here.

[00:14:54]Uh severe warning for Tifton, Georgia, including uh Ocilla.

[00:14:59]Uh let's see here. And Um how do you pronounce I have no idea how you pronounce this one.

[00:15:07]>> [gasps] >> Uh I can pronounce enigma. I know that one. And Linux or Linux.

[00:15:14]>> [laughter] >> But, yeah, this one's also for uh 60 mph wind gusts and uh penny hail as well.

[00:15:22]Um Yeah, over by I have to look into that here in a little bit.

[00:15:28]Let's see here.

[00:15:29]Um Carrot says, "I also saw a flash flood emergency with the tornado warning in it too earlier." Oh, really?

[00:15:36]Yeah, we were we were watching a couple of those flash flood emergencies, man.

[00:15:40]It Dude, it's been crazy as far as the flooding threat goes.

[00:15:44]Um you know, if we actually hop over to that now, which I'll go and show you guys again here. Um you know, we have a still a big flooding concern here.

[00:15:51]I mean, our current valid day one outlook still has, you know, that high risk for for lower Alabama, um bits of panhandle Florida, um and of course, like I said, uh you know, bits of lower Mississippi, too.

[00:16:04]Yeah, I mean, that's that's where we have at least a 70% chance of flooding um every 25 mi. I mean, that that's a significant Like I said, that that literally is the highest you can go on the scale uh as far as flooding. I mean, they have a maximum threat there. It's crazy. Um and I mean, even a moderate, that's a level three out of four. That's still a significant flooding concern. Um and that covers a lot of Georgia, too.

[00:16:23]You know, bits of Atlanta included, Macon, Georgia, Albany, uh Birmingham, Alabama, Montgomery, Alabama, um Columbia, Mississippi, Meridian, Mississippi. So, yeah, I mean, these areas have at least a 40% chance. And then then we have a really large slight risk here, level two out of four uh as far as flooding, you know, for bits of uh Tennessee, up into Kentucky and all.

[00:16:44]Yeah, so definitely uh looking for uh possible excessive rain. Now, as we go into tomorrow or really later today, um let's do that real quickly. Let's head on over to later today's uh day two outlook, which obviously it's now 1:00 a.m.

[00:16:58]They still have yet to update the S- or not SPC, but the WPC outlooks here. Um but this is for later today. So, we actually have another moderate risk here for later on uh for lower Alabama, you know, lower Mississippi, uh bits of the northern panhandle of Florida. So, and once again, another area of at least 40% chance of flooding. I mean, moderate, that's still a very big flooding concern as far as it goes.

[00:17:21]Uh let's see here. Kjack says, "If you haven't already, go hit the thumbs up."

[00:17:24]Well, thank you. I appreciate it.

[00:17:27]Let's see. Uh into stream get suggested more folks who need the live coverage.

[00:17:30]Well, thank you, Kjack. I appreciate it.

[00:17:32]Um April says, "Thanks. I'm only seeing lightning. Um it's like the radar is late."

[00:17:36]>> [laughter] [gasps] >> I got you. Got you. Got you.

[00:17:41]Uh what's up, Devon? Good to see you, friend. Saying, "We lost power for 9 hours." I felt that before. It sucks.

[00:17:48]Um Pittsburgh today just from the wind and no storms, Illinois/Indiana. Yeah, those were some big ones. I mean, they even caused some problems up there in the and in northeast, but you know, thankfully that that threat is uh pretty much over with at this point here.

[00:18:01]You know, as far as it goes.

[00:18:03]Uh like if we hop to the current uh day one outlook here, um looks like they might have just updated.

[00:18:08]I think this is for later on the the the the valid one still in that slight risk here.

[00:18:12]Here, I'll show you guys the the valid one. Let me bring it up for you.

[00:18:17]Um so, this is on your actual page. So, yeah, new day one outlook was just issued 10 minutes ago. Um but that's for later today. That's for later on uh this afternoon and evening. Uh which Oh, great. I'm actually in a marginal.

[00:18:29]>> [laughter] >> Yeah, another big marginal for the southeast later today. Um a little bit of Minnesota, bits of Wisconsin included here, too.

[00:18:37]Uh Nebraska, bits of Kansas and uh Colorado in another risk. Uh 2% tornado risk for eastern North Carolina as you know, the remains of Arthur kind of pushes through.

[00:18:46]Uh lot of wind threats, only hail for those uh risk for the upper Midwest and the uh um you know, bits of central plains there. But yeah, this this is the current valid one right now. So, you we still do have that slight risk in effect here. Um the storms are kind of on the right-hand side of that slight risk, so still have a little bit to go, but you know, still part of that 5% tornado threat here.

[00:19:08]That's what I want to really wanted to be live here for a little bit tonight, uh because unfortunately there is that tornado threat. Not much of a hail concern for tonight.

[00:19:17]Damaging winds could be a concern.

[00:19:19]Probably one of the main concerns here, actually the main concern, but tornadoes are definitely possible, too.

[00:19:24]But yeah, this this outlook here is for later on today.

[00:19:28]All right, let's hop back to radar here.

[00:19:29]We're going to look at the current warnings.

[00:19:33]Um, let's see here. Carrot says day three is an interesting setup model show insane lapse rates. So hail will be giant and wind profiles are wild.

[00:19:43]Got you. Is there a bit of dry mid-levels, too?

[00:19:50]Let's see here.

[00:19:51]Um Angelina says, "I heard moderate actually means quite severe in tornadoes, wind, and flooding. Who knew?" Yeah, there's there's different categories, you know, there's the WPC forecast. They they only do marginal, slight, moderate, high.

[00:20:06]The SPC, you know, the Storm Prediction Center's convective outlooks, it goes marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high.

[00:20:14]The old SPC system, like from like I forgot when they changed it, but it was the early 2010s, I think. Um and they they changed it to where it used to be similar to that, the flooding outlooks that the WPC does, you know, the marginal, slight, moderate, high.

[00:20:31]Um but they added the enhanced for the convective outlooks. It It gets a little confusing. They should probably do the same thing, honestly, for the flooding threat, if you ask me, but Um anyways.

[00:20:44]Let's see here. Angelina says, "Wait, North Dakota in the green again?"

[00:20:47]>> [laughter] >> Yeah, as far as the uh uh outlook for later on uh we do have that general thunderstorm threat. So yeah, that's what the light green means. I mean, it just means a couple booms of thunder possible. Not really anything severe.

[00:21:02]But once you go into that dark green area, you know, that's the marginal risk. That's the level one severe weather threat here. That's for later today. Like I said, for later on this afternoon and later on this evening for today being the 19th.

[00:21:13]So, that's that's that. Um you know, that's that's for later on here. As far as Yeah, they didn't update day two yet yet Oh, yet here.

[00:21:23]Um for Saturday, we got a slight risk for bits of Nebraska and Kansas. So, we're probably going to do some coverage out here.

[00:21:30]But, yeah, we'll we'll we'll get to it when it comes here.

[00:21:32]>> [laughter] >> There's been so much lately.

[00:21:35]All right, let's hop back here to current radar.

[00:21:38]So, this is That looks interesting. Let me look at velocity on that.

[00:21:48]Oh, okay. We're going to keep an eye on that.

[00:21:51]Yeah, I noticed that the reflectivity kind of look like a little bit of a hook here.

[00:21:56]That's why I wanted to look at velocity to see I don't think it's much of anything right now, but we'll we'll watch it. But, we do have a couple warnings here. We're going to start off here in the the panhandle of Florida.

[00:22:06]We do have a line of storms kind of coming up towards the Tallahassee region here.

[00:22:11]Um you know, the warning includes Hosford, Florida, Quincy, Florida.

[00:22:18]Uh Larkin Fish Camp.

[00:22:20]And we have Wewahitchka.

[00:22:23]Hitchcock?

[00:22:25]Wewahitchka?

[00:22:27]>> [laughter] >> Is that how you say that? Goodness, man.

[00:22:31]Oh, buddy. We got some light pretty good lightning on it, too, it looks like.

[00:22:34]But, yeah, that's one for 60 mph winds and penny hail. They do have tornado possible tags on it, too.

[00:22:39]Which that actually does extend into the far southwestern corner of Georgia out by Bainbridge and uh Attapulgus. I think that's how you say that.

[00:22:48]Uh once again, 60 mph winds and penny hail on that one.

[00:22:52]Have I been getting good rain? Yeah, actually, we've we've been getting quite a bit here finally in Lake Lanier. It's been We had a a really long dry season, and I think our rainy season's finally back here.

[00:23:03]Um it's definitely been very muggy.

[00:23:06]That is uh for sure.

[00:23:09]Very, very muggy out there.

[00:23:14]Um anyways.

[00:23:19]Let's see. Christie says right outside of Tallahassee. Uh you said it right.

[00:23:22]Oh, did I? Okay, good.

[00:23:24]>> [laughter] >> I I tend to mess up a lot of names, so you guys got to be uh you got [laughter] to be ready for that.

[00:23:33]People names and town names. I I'm not good with.

[00:23:36]Uh did they re-extend that warning? Hold on. We have Okay, we have 6 minutes left on this warning here.

[00:23:43]Uh this one we have 36 minutes left.

[00:23:45]Okay. We also do have a special marine warning out here by the uh Port Saint Joe area uh south of Panama City.

[00:23:52]Just kind of alerting boaters out there.

[00:23:54]Be like, "Hey, don't boat. You know, stop boating.

[00:23:57]Stop doing your boat thing and go to shore.

[00:23:59]Uh just till the storm passes or navigate around it.

[00:24:02]Just stay out of it.

[00:24:04]Um because the thing is is that, you know, these lines and these storms here um can uh really allow for the you know, the winds to pick up, uh which can create bigger waves and and all that stuff, which can cause a uh a bit of a problem, especially for smaller craft, you know, smaller boats have a big problem with that.

[00:24:22]Um anyways.

[00:24:25]Okay, over Bill. I'll look at it whenever we're done with the coverage.

[00:24:28]Carrot says, "Yeah, a little bit of lower level dryness. Uh some strong temp slopes highest uh are in southwest Kansas with lower lapse rates of 9 plus degrees. Wow, that's pretty that's pretty intense."

[00:24:39]Yeah, we'll uh I I'll I'll probably look at it off stream um later on, probably tomorrow.

[00:24:45]Uh well, I'm sure we'll talk about it, you know, whenever the time comes.

[00:24:48]>> [laughter] >> Anyways, but yeah, let's hop on back over here.

[00:24:54]See, I'm I'm becoming a Floridian. Be careful, Andrew. I've been a Floridian for over 3 years now.

[00:25:00]I have family that lives down here, too, and uh it's just good to be with them now.

[00:25:05]All right, let's hop on down here, y'all. We're going to pull back up our uh flooding outlook. So, for the people just joining us, um this right here is by far our biggest problem. Um you know, in our valid day one outlook as far as the excessive rainfall goes, uh we have a maximum threat for flooding. Um you know, these areas have been seeing just a enormous amount of rain. We've been seeing so much flooding going on. Um there was several flash flood emergencies issued.

[00:25:31]Um just just it's just been crazy.

[00:25:34]There's just been so much water. I mean, some areas have seen probably over a foot of rain. I know we've seen some areas above 10 in. Um um but, you know, likely some spots that were over a foot, which is just unbelievable. Um you know, but as far as the valid outlook goes, I mean, the pink areas, this has at least a 70% chance of flooding every 25 miles.

[00:25:53]Um you know, that includes a lot of lower Alabama, you know, lower Mississippi out there. Uh Mobile, Alabama is included.

[00:26:01]Little bit of the panhandle of Florida.

[00:26:02]And then, like I said, even for the moderate, you know, that [clears throat] uh level uh three out of four threat here, um you know, that's still at least a 40% chance of flooding every 25 miles here.

[00:26:13]I mean, that covers a lot of areas like Atlanta, Georgia, Macon, Georgia, Albany, Franklin, Athens, Georgia.

[00:26:19]Um and then, of course, we uh you know, uh let's see here. We also do have the um areas up by Birmingham, Marion, Montgomery, uh see, Heflin.

[00:26:32]Let's see here. Bits of Dothan, as well.

[00:26:36]Let's see here.

[00:26:39]As a native, uh that was a compliment.

[00:26:41]Pray you're a transplant. Shh.

[00:26:44]I know.

[00:26:47]I love I I love it down here, though, you know.

[00:26:49]Uh it's just I might have not been born here, but it's just where I was meant to be, you know. I know a lot of people say that but I mean the weather down here is just I love it. I love it love it. I'm getting used to it though. I you know it was a little rough with the weather here at first I ain't going to lie the heat but now it's like dude 90s used to be like so hot for me.

[00:27:08]Now it's like I'm out in the 90s it's like another day.

[00:27:15]Yeah, I've gotten more used to it.

[00:27:17]But anyways but we also have this really big slight risk here and for flooding too. I mean that goes up into Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, bits of Missouri, West Virginia.

[00:27:27]This is where we have at least a 15% chance of flooding out here too. I mean also can't forget about this area here for bits of Texas and lower lower Oklahoma.

[00:27:35]And of course our marginal the green is the at least a 5% chance of flooding.

[00:27:40]But anyways hopping back here actually we're going to have to hop back to SPC's main page here with to look at the valid day one outlook.

[00:27:47]As far as it goes, you know like I said we still have the slight risk here tonight. We still do have that 5% tornado threat that 15% wind threat.

[00:27:56]It's kind of what we're looking out here for.

[00:27:58]Now Texas now they're they're actually supposed to get some severe storms tonight.

[00:28:03]Their storms from what we were looking at earlier was actually supposed to be pretty late. Yeah, look at this so here's by the way you guys can follow the long in the time in the top right here.

[00:28:15]Current time is 1:13.

[00:28:19]Let's see here so as far as it goes okay so this is roughly kind of where we are.

[00:28:24]But yeah I mean from here on I mean according to the HRRR I mean we're supposed to be developing a pretty pretty gnarly looking line here later on tonight which will be you know impacting the Dallas area here for some time tomorrow morning so or later this morning.

[00:28:40]So definitely keep an eye out there for that and of course you know across the deep south just our typical summertime thunderstorms.

[00:28:46]Yeah we do we do have that we actually do have a pretty big marginal here for later today, too, though.

[00:28:51]Uh, if we go to the future day one outlook for, you know, later on this afternoon and this evening for today, um, you know, you can see that goes all the way down into Florida, uh, a lot of the southeast here.

[00:29:01]So, definitely, definitely.

[00:29:05]Um, let's see here.

[00:29:10]Carrot says, "Can tropical storms sometimes be worse for rain uh and hurricanes?"

[00:29:15]You mean than hurricanes? It It really depends on the setup, man. You know, cuz you can't You can absolutely have tropical storms that bring significant flooding problems. It all determines on how big the storm is, how fast the storm is moving, because if you have a big fat storm causing so much heavy rainfall, and it's moving so slow, it's going to sit over that area for a long period of time and just accumulate and accumulate and accumulate. Um, you know, but if say if you have, uh, you know, a smaller storm is moving faster, then the rain totals won't be as much, because cuz, you know, first of all, you're not going to be getting as much rain, and a lot of it's because, you know, the storm is moving fast, and it'll be out quick. Um, it it It just really It really depends on the system. Um, tropical storms can cause significant flooding problems.

[00:29:59]Hurricanes can cause significant hurricane problems or significant Hurricanes can cause significant hurricane problems. This is early shenanigans. I apologize.

[00:30:09]Um, no. Uh, hurricanes can cause, uh, significant flooding problems. What I meant to be You know, like Hurricane Harvey, uh, massive, massive problem for the Houston area. I mean, it it caused feet of rain.

[00:30:21]Um, and then of course, we just had Arthur, which was a tropical storm, a weak tropical storm, and I mean, it it drove over a foot of rain in some spots.

[00:30:28]I mean, it's It just depends on the system. It really does.

[00:30:32]Uh, let's see here.

[00:30:34]The queen of typos.

[00:30:35]>> [laughter] >> I do it, too, so don't don't worry about it.

[00:30:38]Uh, what's up, Jess? Good to see you.

[00:30:40]Saying you're back. Yeah, I told you guys I'd hop back on here tonight. I mean, I wasn't certain I would, but I decided to cuz you know, there still is a little bit of a threat tonight.

[00:30:48]Uh as far as, you know, tornado potential and uh and all that stuff. So, I just kind of wanted to be here for you guys. I know.

[00:30:56]Um let's see here.

[00:30:58]For day three's if the storms can break the cap and become surface based uh in Southwest Kansas, which uh is strong, but it's good forecasting. They could become pretty gnarly tornado makers. It depends, yeah. It depends.

[00:31:10]Um I mean, a lot a lot of that depends on uh you know, how much moisture we have in the lower levels, which can determine storm base height, you know, how high up the storm base is.

[00:31:21]Having a low storm base is better for tornadic activity. And also having stronger lower level shear with aggressive veering, so aggressive change in wind direction with altitude as you go up uh is important, too. Not not just a change in direction as you go up, but also the change in speed uh as well, you know, so typically you want it to get stronger the higher you go up.

[00:31:39]Uh that's that's like the perfect environment for uh for tornadoes and stuff.

[00:31:45]Um Let's see. Graham, good to see you, friend. Saying, is this a scare?

[00:31:50]I I meant to say is this scary? No, I mean, honestly, I wouldn't be scared about it. I just, you know, I want you guys to keep an eye on it and um you know, watch it cuz the only problem is here is because yeah, we still do have a bit of a tornado threat and damaging wind threat tonight. Of course, our flooding is still happening. Um but a lot of the problem is that, you know, now that it's 1:00 in the morning, there's not a lot of people up. A lot of people have gone to bed by now. Um which arguably night time is kind of the more vulnerable time uh because of that, you know, because of the people of everybody's asleep and all. So, you know, that's why I can't stress it enough. I mean, it's for the people who are awake, I'm here to give you guys live coverage. Uh that way, you know, you at least you have somebody you can go to um to do that. You know, I like to do a lot of night coverages. I mean, I did a lot of evening uh, or afternoon coverage earlier today. Um, a little bit tired, so I might not be fully here, but you know, cuz I've been up for a while, but uh, I try to do both. Try to do both.

[00:32:49]Um, but anyways, but yeah, so we have a severe thunderstorm warning here. We're currently watching. It does have tornado possible tags on it. Like I mentioned, it does not mean that there's an immediate danger for tornadoes, uh, but it does mean that there is, um, you know, tornadoes can quickly develop essentially. Um, and, you know, if they do occur, there's a possibility that they could occur.

[00:33:07]Um, once again, if there was an immediate danger of a tornado, if we thought that there was a tornado getting ready to develop, then they'd put out a tornado warning, but there's no tornado warnings right now.

[00:33:16]Can't rule them out. Um, but anyways, but we do have, uh, like I said, a 60 mph wind gust, uh, potential on this line here for bits, uh, areas just kind of west of Tallahassee, um, including, uh, Quincy and, um, you know, Hosford, um, and however you pronounce this one, the the one I have a hard time, Wewa, Wewahitchka.

[00:33:35]I think that's how you say that.

[00:33:37]Pretty sure.

[00:33:39]But yeah, this one, uh, this one also has, like I said, penny hail, that's the least of your concerns, honestly. Um, the main thing, the main threat, I I meant to say threat and thing at the same time. I said three.

[00:33:50]Like I said, I'm not going to be fully here this morning, so cuz it's late. I'm barely awake, but, um, yeah, 60 mph winds in Penny Hail, at least in Penny Hail, it's not going to be too much of a problem.

[00:34:00]Uh, but that also goes into bits of like southwest Georgia, too, like Bainbridge and, um, Adel, Palatka, uh, Climax.

[00:34:08]You guys are in that, too.

[00:34:10]Uh, how much longer are we Okay, this one expired. The one up here in, uh, south central Georgia for Tifton, Ocilla, Ocilla, I think it Yeah, Ocilla, uh, Fitzgerald, um, Ala- Alafa?

[00:34:25]Alafa, I think it is, maybe.

[00:34:27]And then Omega.

[00:34:29]Uh, this one has been canceled, so so that is no longer there.

[00:34:34]So, yeah, I'm really just kind of watching that, but just because there's no warnings in this does not mean that it could become severe again, so there is there is that possibility.

[00:34:42]There is that possibility. Uh we got a mesoscale discussion, WPC affecting South Mississippi, Alabama is probably for that flooding threat or that flooding threat. I almost did it again.

[00:34:54]Um let's see here. Areas of training thunderstorms with renewed flash flood concerns from rain rates locally 2 plus inches per hour.

[00:35:04]And they highlighted lower um Alabama, lower Mississippi, lower Georgia, and the panhandle of Florida. Kind of where, you know, a lot of that high risk is essentially.

[00:35:13]So.

[00:35:15]Um let's see. Brian says, "I'm in Hinesville, Georgia. Uh is any impacts coming my way?" Uh let me pull up your area, my friend. Let me see what we got going on for you. Hinesville, Georgia.

[00:35:27]Okay, so yeah, you're kind of over here.

[00:35:29]So, I believe the valid day one, I believe it does have you in that risk. Yeah, I mean you're barely you're you're in that level one marginal risk here. So, the storms should probably weaken a little bit by the time they approach you this morning.

[00:35:41]Um but it doesn't completely rule out the severe possibility. Um yeah, as far as that tornado threat goes, you're right on the edge of that 2%. Um it's unlikely obviously you'll see tornadoes, but uh gusty winds is possible. Not really any hail concerns here. I mean, yeah, the line will approach you in a little bit. Yeah, I'll go and show you all the future radar.

[00:36:02]Uh which you can follow along with the time up here in the in the top right.

[00:36:05]Um but as we go down in time here, yeah, you can see that that line can just kind of pushes uh you know, relatively eastward here. Um you know, by 7:00 in the morning here, you can see that a lot of that line will be kind of over southern Georgia, kind of out there by you, actually.

[00:36:19]Um maybe storming up there by where the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic there.

[00:36:23]And uh bits of Alabama still getting some more rain, unfortunately, cuz there's there's even more coming here for later on, you know, considering that all that we've seen from Arthur um or the remnants of Arthur um Arthur um you know, we're we're going to get more convection later on, you know, later on this uh this morning and uh you know, through the afternoon. That's just going to increase even more totals, unfortunately.

[00:36:45]Um that's that's actually another reason why we have a uh another excessive rainfall uh concern here for later today.

[00:36:53]Uh so, this is the valid one. We have that high risk, but if we do pop over here to um tomorrow or later today, really, uh we do have a uh let's see here. Whoop, didn't mean to turn on QPF. Let me try that again here.

[00:37:07]Um but yeah, for later on, we have that moderate um area with at least a 40% chance of flooding for lower Mississippi, lower Alabama, cuz we're going to be getting a lot more rain out there.

[00:37:18]Uh Christie says, "Don't forget to like and subscribe. It helps others be able to see the stream uh in the event."

[00:37:23]Thank you. I appreciate that, Christie.

[00:37:25]Absolutely. Halo says, "Alapaha?"

[00:37:29]Okay.

[00:37:30]I I'm not going to remember that, man.

[00:37:31]I'm not going to lie with you. I'm not going to remember that, but I will I'll try. I'll try.

[00:37:37]Um Angelina says, "Got to run, but thanks." No problem, friend. Thanks for stopping by. Appreciate you.

[00:37:42]Appreciate you. Appreciate you.

[00:37:44]Here, let's uh You know what we're going to do actually? Since we're already on here, um I'm going to bring up the rain over the next 3 days according to WPC.

[00:37:50]We'll pull up the QPF for days 1 to 3.

[00:37:52]This is basically how much more rain you could see here.

[00:37:55]Um yeah, lower Alabama still going to see possibly several inches of rain out there. I mean, some spots probably uh four, maybe locally higher. I mean, there could be some small spots maybe a little higher.

[00:38:07]It's possible. Um especially up like Montgomery, Ozark, Monroeville. I mean, these areas could see uh maybe two, three, four inches or so uh still yet to come. Now, this is over the next 3 days. So, this is between today and 3 days from now.

[00:38:21]Um you know, we do have a bit of a flooding threat for bits of the uh the central plains here later on, too. I believe that's with day three outlook here.

[00:38:28]Um Carolinas could see a couple of inches in some spots, but not anything super crazy. But yeah, really the the big problem still continues across a lot of the south, you know, especially like Alabama. They uh they're getting so much rain out here. It's just It's just crazy.

[00:38:43]Absolutely crazy.

[00:38:45]Uh pulled up the current water vapor satellite, you know, kind of showing you where everything's at. You could see um so the darker kind of uh reddish colors, that is the more drier air.

[00:38:54]Uh you can see that, you know, over bits of like Louisiana and all right now. Um it's, you know, a bit more dry. Finally, we've dried out a little bit. Uh but you can see where all of this is. This is where we have still a lot of moisture in kind of the bluish and the white and gray color. Um that's showing us that we have moisture.

[00:39:10]And uh yeah, definitely quite a bit.

[00:39:12]Definitely quite a bit here. Um you can see where a lot of that heavy deep convection is over Georgia. Uh really there in that deep blue. Um that's showing that deep convection that's going on out there, so.

[00:39:24]Um let's see. Christie says Albany, Georgia the local life cluster of 2,566 outages for Albany. Uh it was logged at 10:14. Oh, you know what? That's actually a good idea. Let's actually pull up the um power outages here.

[00:39:41]Let's see here.

[00:39:44]Let me pull this up for you.

[00:39:47]So yeah, here you go. So we can kind of look at the estimated power outages here. So we still have New York State um from that severe event we had earlier.

[00:39:54]They have 33,000 people uh without power.

[00:39:58]Uh as far as North Carolina goes, we have almost 14,000 people. Georgia, uh a little over 20,000 people without power.

[00:40:05]Alabama, 16,000.

[00:40:08]Uh Louisiana, only about 2,600.

[00:40:10]Mississippi, about 2,800. Surprisingly lower than I thought it would be for those two states. I'm not going to lie with you.

[00:40:16]Surprisingly lower. but yeah.

[00:40:19]And we got a little bit of power outages out there in some of those areas.

[00:40:24]All right, let's hop back to radar here.

[00:40:26]See what's going on with those warnings and all.

[00:40:30]Yes, they did cancel that one for South Central Georgia. We still do have the severe warning for the next 20 minutes.

[00:40:36]For areas just west of Tallahassee. This storm's coming up on Tallahassee.

[00:40:40]You can see there's Tallahassee there and there's that main line. This thing's kind of moving uh uh relatively eastward here as you can kind of see.

[00:40:48]Uh it's it's going out there. It honestly kind of looks like it might be fading out a little bit. That also could be because it's getting closer to radar.

[00:40:54]Sometimes it'll do that, too.

[00:40:55]Um But yeah, you could see it's kind of getting ready to push out of that warned area. We'll see if they actually extend that or not. I mean we'll see. But regardless, it's coming out there by Tallahassee. So, they're they're probably going to uh get that here pretty soon.

[00:41:12]Um but yeah, that that warning includes um areas like uh However, you say that again. Who Who's the one that Oh, that's Never mind. Wee Wauhitchka. I think that's how you say that, maybe.

[00:41:25]Um let's see Lola uh Larkin Fish Camp See here, Orange, Gun Landing Hosford Quincy. I can say that one. I know that I know that one.

[00:41:39]Sawdust. Yeah.

[00:41:41]Uh so, that's for 60 mph winds and uh and penny hail.

[00:41:45]Like I mentioned, I mean that that warning polygon does extend into the far southwest corner of Georgia, too. Uh including the following areas like Attapulgus, um let's see Climax uh Bainbridge included there, too. So, yeah. Once again, 60 mph winds, quarter hail or sorry, not quarter hail, penny hail.

[00:42:03]Um Like I mentioned, they do have a tour possible tag on it. I mean, like I mentioned once again, it doesn't necessarily mean that there isn't an tornado danger cuz you know if there was then they'd put a tornado warning but uh basically you know having that uh you know having that uh tornado possible tag it uh basically says that you know tornadoes can quickly develop from storms like the one we're looking at here.

[00:42:29]Um meaning to just keep an extra eye on it. Just to keep your eyes peeled essentially.

[00:42:36]So.

[00:42:37]Uh we'll definitely we'll definitely do that for for a little bit. Like I said I don't know how long we're going to be live for. I'm going to try to stream for a little bit but I'm not going to lie with y'all I'm a little bit sleepy. I've been up for a while. Been up for a while I think I woke up at like 8:00 this morning.

[00:42:50]Um so I've been up for quite a little bit.

[00:42:56]Just a little bit.

[00:42:58]Let's see Alapaha. That's right Halo.

[00:43:00]Sorry.

[00:43:05]Yep I forgot about it.

[00:43:08]I told you I would man.

[00:43:09]I told you I'd forget about it.

[00:43:11]And I sure did.

[00:43:14]Uh at least I got a little bit of Coca-Cola so hopefully caffeine will help keep me awake a little bit longer.

[00:43:23]All right let's check up on velocity here. Let's see if we can find any rotation in these storms here just to make sure. It doesn't really look like it from what I can see here.

[00:43:32]Um I mean the environment definitely still is capable of it.

[00:43:36]Unfortunately our Cave Act's radar in South Georgia's not working right now.

[00:43:40]We have uh we have the radar out there by Macon.

[00:43:44]Which we can look at but yeah I'm not really seeing a whole lot.

[00:43:48]That's That's good. That's good. I'm not seeing any rotation or anything right now but it can be quick. It can come out of nowhere really fast.

[00:43:57]So that's uh that's really the main thing is just keeping a close eye out for that.

[00:44:05]But regardless quite a bit of lightning activity on it though too. Here, let's hop back over here. We're going to pull up the I want to look at the current dew points out here. I'm sure these are well in the 70s.

[00:44:15]Wow.

[00:44:17]Goodness, dude.

[00:44:19]Yeah, these these dew points are almost in the 80s in some spots.

[00:44:24]That's unbelievable. That that just is mugginess to the next level.

[00:44:28]Crazy, crazy. Here, let's pull up our observations. I want to see those uh mesonets there.

[00:44:37]Yeah, definitely high dew points.

[00:44:38]Temperatures are in the lower 80s right now.

[00:44:42]Yeah, nothing really interesting on there.

[00:44:46]Anyways, I do want to hop over here back to the uh excessive rainfall outlook.

[00:44:49]So, guys, this once again is the biggest problem out of this whole system is uh the flooding threat here that we do have. Um you know, like I mentioned, we do have a high risk here for flooding uh still in the valid day one outlook here.

[00:45:03]You know, for lower Mississippi, lower Alabama, and bits of the far western um bits of uh the panhandle of Florida.

[00:45:10]Um so, this right here, this has at least a 70% chance of flooding here um every 25 mi. And like I said, it includes areas like Mobile, Alabama, Hattiesburg, Mississippi, Greenville, uh let's see, Enterprise, Troy, and uh Adulcia Adulcia. I think that's how you say it. Uh bits of uh far western panhandle of Florida by Crestview, uh Milton, Century, and Jay and McDavid area.

[00:45:35]Um yeah. Like I said, at least 70% chance of flooding. That's that's a big flooding concern here.

[00:45:41]Uh then we have that big moderate here, too. You know, that level three out of four threat in the red. Um kind of looks like a more orange, but it's supposed to be red.

[00:45:50]Um here, let me change this so it's more vibrant. There we go.

[00:45:55]Yeah, so for the moderate areas, you know, that includes areas like uh Atlanta, uh Georgia here, bits of Macon, Georgia, Albany, Georgia, Birmingham, Alabama, Montgomery, Alabama, Meridian and Columbia, Mississippi.

[00:46:05]Uh you know, like like I said, even that area, that's at least a 40% chance of flooding there, which is uh still a significant problem for uh you know, rainfall and uh that flooding potential.

[00:46:16]Uh then we have that really big slight risk, you know, this yellow area here, at least a 15% chance of flooding out here. Also have another one for bits of Texas and Oklahoma. And then lastly, our lower end flooding threat here, which is in the dark green uh for, you know, areas at least a 5% chance here of flooding overall, so uh you know, those areas do still have a little bit of a flooding threat here, you know, we can't rule out some flooding in isolated spots, but um by far, the heaviest, once again, is down to the south here.

[00:46:43]Absolutely.

[00:46:44]Now, um let's see here, as far as the uh expected rainfall goes, we're going to deal with the next 1 to 3 days again here. Uh we were looking at this here just a few moments ago, but yeah, a lot of the South Alabama still has quite a bit of rain here to possibly fall.

[00:47:01]Let's see, Ryan says, uh weather-wise, drop that tornado possible tag already.

[00:47:03]Oh, did they?

[00:47:05]Interesting.

[00:47:08]Um let's see, Amethyst says, I live in Thomasville, Georgia and it's crazy humid here. Yeah, yeah, it's definitely humid, that's for sure.

[00:47:15]But yeah, a lot of like lower Alabama and uh Panhandle, Florida, still several inches we could still see out there.

[00:47:21]Good uh 2 to 4 for a lot of those areas and locally up to 5 or so could be possible. So.

[00:47:26]Unfortunately, uh that's not over yet.

[00:47:30]Um hopping back over here to current radar here.

[00:47:34]So, we did have uh you know, that one warning for Georgia, they canceled it.

[00:47:37]Uh we still have this severe warning here for 12 more minutes.

[00:47:41]Uh like I mentioned, this line is actually approaching Tallahassee. It's uh not super far away from you guys out there.

[00:47:48]Uh but this is warned for 60 mph winds, penny hail and a tornado possible tag on it. Um so, we'll keep an eye We just looked at velocity a moment ago. I did not really see any rotation within it, which is good. Um Yeah, just it just be it's just a good thing just to scan it every once in a while just to make sure.

[00:48:08]Yeah, let's hop back up to Georgia.

[00:48:09]We'll see what these storms look like here.

[00:48:14]Yeah, I'm not really seeing a whole lot of uh stuff on that, which is good. So, definitely a good sign. Good sign. But, like I mentioned though, I mean tornadoes can quickly develop. And that's that's why we have that tornado possible tag there. I mean, that's just to say uh tornadoes can quickly develop from um storms like this one here.

[00:48:31]Uh because the environment, you know, is pretty pretty decent actually as far as everything goes. Um Here, let me bring up our mesoanalysis here again for y'all. Um You know, that way we can kind of look at the what the environment looks like.

[00:48:50]Kind of a little bit more of a breakdown as far as analysis goes here. Um I know it looks like a lot of scribbles to you guys, but there's a lot of instability here. This is basically looking at the amount of how unstable the atmosphere is.

[00:49:03]Uh we're 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg for southern Georgia bits of uh Florida and all, which that's a lot of instability, pretty good amount of instability.

[00:49:11]Uh lower level winds about 5,000 ft up.

[00:49:14]Uh the winds are screaming. They're going pretty fast to the northeast here, you know, from the southwest to the northeast at about 35-40 knots. I mean, they're pretty decent, you know, pretty decent little lower level jet there. Um then we go up to 20,000 ft. Uh the wind speed doesn't change a whole lot, but the wind direction changes a little bit more to the east. Um kind of west-southwest to north-northeast flow uh essentially.

[00:49:38]Um so, you definitely uh we do have, you know, little bit of veering going on there, but I mean, it's it's not a bad little environment.

[00:49:46]I mean, it obviously could be better, yeah, but it's it's it's favorable for tornadoes, unfortunately.

[00:49:52]Um That's That's the unfortunate thing and something that we're like I said, still got to kind of keep a close eye out there for.

[00:50:02]But anyways, um let's see. Let's hop on back over here.

[00:50:07]I'm going to hop back to the longwave IR satellite view. Go ahead and pull this up here.

[00:50:12]Yeah, so you can see those darker red areas. That's where we have some of the deepest convection, you know, some of the strongest storm activity here. You can kind of see where it's highlighted.

[00:50:18]Um you know, definitely seeing that uh you know, that line of storms down there in the panhandle of Florida.

[00:50:25]Um you know, of course we have that heavy storm activity here in lower Georgia here as well.

[00:50:30]Um you know, bits of Mississippi, Alabama there, too.

[00:50:33]Uh like I mentioned, we got to watch out for Dallas not just Dallas, but Texas here in general for later on cuz yeah, we'll look at the future models here, the future radar.

[00:50:42]You know, like I mentioned, as we go through the night, um models yeah, early tomorrow morning really have this system kind of uh you know, developing here, kind of a long line of storms rolling through and uh you know, that'll be pushing to um you know, through the Dallas area.

[00:50:59]Uh I wonder why WeatherFront and WeatherWise would drop the severe tag.

[00:51:03]Yeah, yours still has it. I don't know, that's weird.

[00:51:06]Not too sure.

[00:51:08]I mean, if it does or doesn't, you know, like I said, it doesn't mean a whole whole lot. It just means to keep an eye on the storm cuz tornadoes are possible, but um regardless, I mean, it's you know, not a not a super big deal.

[00:51:23]Yeah, now if there was immediate like I said, if there was an immediate danger for tornadoes and and all that stuff, then uh then obviously they'd put out a tornado warning. Uh the tornado tag, well, once again, just kind of a little extra nudge just to just to say keep your eyes peeled for tornadoes.

[00:51:38]Um doesn't mean that there's there's there's going to be a tornado. It just just means that they're possible, essentially.

[00:51:47]All right, we got uh let's see, 8 minutes left on this warning here. I don't know if they're going to extend it or not because of that that warning heard that that storm is starting to kind of push out of the warned area here. I mean it's coming up on Tallahassee.

[00:51:57]Thankfully, I mean it as far as reflectivity goes uh it was definitely more vibrant, more red and more heavy as far as precipitation goes earlier.

[00:52:07]Um like I was mentioning, I mean also the closer it gets to the radar the lower the colors could be too.

[00:52:12]Um so it you know, could be that as well, but honestly, I mean it's you know, getting really close to the Tallahassee area here. So just just a heads-up for the Tallahassee folks.

[00:52:25]Um I mean as far as velocity goes, now take this with a grain of salt, but according to the velocity here about 6 to 700 ft up uh looks like the winds are kind of moving roughly about 30-ish, maybe up to 40 mph. We could have some higher gusts obviously in that, but um that's according to the radar here. It's more of an estimate than a uh approximation.

[00:52:54]Let's see.

[00:52:56]Uh Susie says, "How many tornadoes have occurred today {slash} tonight?" There was quite a few of them actually, I'm pretty sure. Here, let me let me bring up the reports here from the uh National Weather Service and I'll go and show you.

[00:53:08]Uh let's see. Pull this up.

[00:53:13]So as far as the reports go, so what's today? Today's the 19th. Okay, we'll go back to the 18th, which was yesterday.

[00:53:21]Apparently, we only had two tornado reports actually, which is interesting, but we had a lot of wind reports though.

[00:53:26]Holy cow, look at that.

[00:53:27]So each blue dot you see, that's a wind report. Um we had two tornado reports, one in southern Mississippi, one in kind of central south central Louisiana.

[00:53:37]Uh let's see here out there in however the heck you say that town or that county name.

[00:53:45]>> [laughter] [gasps] >> Out of my due point, Louisiana.

[00:53:49]Another one for Stone County, Mississippi.

[00:53:52]Reports trees down.

[00:53:54]Uh with a tornadic So TDS that stands for tornadic debris signature. It just means that correlation coefficient that product for for the radar uh detected debris. Um so yeah, the more you know, if you didn't know that TDS is tornadic debris signature, uh which is the way for the radar to confirm the tornado.

[00:54:13]Um cuz you you look for correlation coefficient, you look for a drop in CC values overhead of the velocity couplet, you know, where there's rotation there on velocity.

[00:54:22]Um anyways, but yeah, TDS tornadic debris signature. Uh the other ones was a public submitted video, so the other one was a visual from somebody.

[00:54:31]Uh and then of course the other one was just radar based.

[00:54:35]Interesting.

[00:54:36]But there you go. Yeah, two tornadoes it looks like.

[00:54:40]There could have been more as they just could have not been reported and stuff like that or could have been in the middle of nowhere, which it's happened too, you know.

[00:54:47]Uh we did have a lot of tornado warnings earlier, I'll tell you that. We had quite a few of them. Uh we were we actually did a little bit of coverage earlier. We did about 2 hours of coverage earlier this afternoon.

[00:54:57]Um and uh yeah, definitely uh definitely definitely was pretty pretty heavy on the tornado warnings today.

[00:55:07]Susie says, "Wow, uh have friends in How do you say >> [laughter] >> it? Delogna?"

[00:55:15]That's not how you say that, though.

[00:55:17]Uh sorry, it's also 1:40 in the morning, so >> [laughter] >> I'm going to copy this area, I'm going to put it in the program, and it'll take me there.

[00:55:23]There we go.

[00:55:25]Oh, okay, so this is up kind of for northern Georgia. Got you, got you.

[00:55:28]Yeah, thankfully for northern Georgia the threat's not as not as big. Um you know, a lot of like central western Georgia, that's where the biggest like flooding concern and uh the severe weather concern is. Yeah, up here you're outside of that flood watch and all that stuff. Yeah, the green boxes you see here, this is all the flood watch.

[00:55:45]Um and then uh just north of that, you know, where they're at.

[00:55:50]Yeah, those those don't even go up there. Um See, as far as the Here, let me bring let me bring back up the the valid day one outlook here.

[00:56:04]All right, that's the later outlook.

[00:56:05]Here's the valid outlook. So, I mean, yeah, they're in that marginal, but honestly, at this point, I mean, if I hop over to current radar here, let's go KFFC.

[00:56:13]Always reminds me of Kentucky Fried Chicken, man, I tell you. Makes me hungry every time.

[00:56:19]>> [gasps] >> Um that was a nice voice crack. Uh but yeah, uh really not anything going on out there.

[00:56:26]I think they're fine. They're going to be good.

[00:56:29]You got a flash flood warning for Columbus. Uh was that Georgia? Yeah, Columbus, Georgia.

[00:56:35]Uh four and a four hours and three minutes left on that.

[00:56:39]Between 2.5 and 3.5 inches of rain has fallen.

[00:56:42]Uh there you go. Yeah, with additional amounts of a half an inch to 1 and 1/2 inches possible.

[00:56:50]So, that's that.

[00:56:53]Can't forget about our special marine warning down here, too, for uh Port St. Joe and Mexico Beach.

[00:57:00]Uh also Beacon Beach area, too.

[00:57:03]Basically, just uh to let the boaters know that, you know, there could be some suddenly higher winds and waves, uh which could cause a problem for uh you know, smaller craft, especially.

[00:57:16]Uh Cheryl says, "Will the storms be severe in Carrollton, Texas, tomorrow?

[00:57:20]Uh if so, like hail and high winds?" Um let me look, friend.

[00:57:24]Let me look.

[00:57:25]Yeah, no problem, Susie. I try to get to everybody's questions here.

[00:57:28]Like I mentioned, we're here to help you guys. I want to do what I can to help.

[00:57:32]All right, so this up here Okay, so as Cheryl, as far as your risk goes, um let me bring up our day one outlook here. We do have a marginal So, this is for later today. This is valid for this afternoon, this evening.

[00:57:45]Um like I mentioned, the the valid day one outlook, this is currently what the outlook looks like, you know, that's valid, uh but later on this afternoon, this evening for, you know, later today.

[00:57:54]You know, after peak heating and stuff like that or during peak heating and all. That's for later on. Um I mean, you are in Here, let's see here.

[00:58:03]You are in a marginal risk here as far as the threat later today goes. Uh tornado probs none, I mean, or less than 2%, I should say.

[00:58:12]Uh we do have a 5% wind threat and not a hail threat. Yeah, strictly just a uh damaging wind concern there.

[00:58:21]Uh little 5%.

[00:58:24]Although, I feel like the day one valid uh or the valid day one is different here. Let me go back to valid day one.

[00:58:32]Yeah, cuz valid day one has that slight risk here, um kind of for the Dallas area. Just kind of cuts off right at the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

[00:58:40]Huh.

[00:58:42]Anyways, but yeah, mainly just a little bit of a gusty wind concern.

[00:58:46]Yeah, no problem, Susie. I appreciate you, too, for for hanging out with us.

[00:58:51]All right, let's hop back to current radar.

[00:58:55]Got some storms pushing through. Uh how much longer we got here? Okay, we have 1 minute. 1 minute on that one. Ooh, that's nasty.

[00:59:03]Considerable flash flood warning just got issued here for bits of lower Mississippi, just north of Hattiesburg, out by Ellisville, Seminary, and Bassfield.

[00:59:15]Uh wow, yeah, this just really kind of goes to show you guys how much rain we've seen between 5 and 8 inches of rain has fallen with an additional amount of 2 to 4 possible, so that's 7 to 12 inches total.

[00:59:25]That is unbelievable.

[00:59:28]Unbelievable. Here, let me actually bring up the uh radar over here in Mobile.

[00:59:35]Here's what we're going to do. I'm going to go back to storm total precipitation.

[00:59:38]It should show us >> [laughter] >> That can't be right.

[00:59:46]That can't be right, right?

[00:59:50]That is crazy.

[00:59:57]So, I don't know if you guys can see that marker there. This is radar estimated rain totals.

[01:00:05]Out by Wiggins, according to the radar, you know, once again, this is kind of an estimated thing.

[01:00:12]Radar's estimating like 2 ft of rain out here.

[01:00:19]That's ridiculous, man. That's crazy [snorts] crazy stuff here. Let's see uh Definitely several inches in Florida, especially that northwestern panhandle.

[01:00:29]Goodness, dude. Let's try like Louisiana. Let's do southwest Louisiana here.

[01:00:35]Um Wow, dude. That's crazy. Maybe we'll go over here towards Houston.

[01:00:45]Those must have reset.

[01:00:48]That's incredible. Let's see.

[01:00:50]Yeah, you can see where a lot of that rain was it for a lot of lower Mississippi. Um Yeah, KPOE. Ooh, wow, look at that.

[01:01:00]That is crazy.

[01:01:04]Wow.

[01:01:08]No, man, that lines up. Look, this is from the weather service between 14 and 28 inches of rain has fallen.

[01:01:17]Wow.

[01:01:21]Talk about catastrophic.

[01:01:24]Holy cow, dude.

[01:01:30]That's just crazy. That's just unbelievable.

[01:01:34]Uh Cheryl says, "Thank you. I believe more than local guys." Oh, well, thank you. Like I said, I'll never lie to you guys. We'll always keep everything real with y'all.

[01:01:42]I can't tell I I I'll tell you what, man. It's honestly hard to compete with uh a lot of people doing um all kinds of fake titles and thumbnails and all.

[01:01:52]Um you know, like like our titles and our thumbnails and all. I mean, I keep them realistic, you know.

[01:02:00]But you get get got a lot of people that tend to lie a bit just to get more views. It's just so annoying.

[01:02:06]I'm not calling anybody out. I'm not that kind of person, but it's just I don't know.

[01:02:12]It It's It's hard to trust people nowadays. It really is, and it's sad.

[01:02:18]Dude, I can't get over that much rain.

[01:02:19]That's crazy.

[01:02:21]Yeah, like I said, radar estimated is very iffy, especially when you get up in the higher totals, you know, that accuracy kind of goes down the the more rain there is.

[01:02:35]>> [sighs] >> Man, oh man.

[01:02:38]Anyways, let's hop back to reflectivity here. Let's see. So, they yeah, they did cancel that warning out there, the one for Tallahassee, but the line, whatever's left of that line, is uh getting ready to hit Tallahassee here.

[01:02:50]But honestly, I mean, it looks like it's calmed down quite a bit here.

[01:02:56]Honestly, I think I could probably go to bed. I'm not going to lie with y'all.

[01:03:00]>> [laughter] >> We just hit an hour mark of being live, so I think I'm probably going to call it a call it a stream here.

[01:03:06]Um but yeah, tomorrow afternoon we'll go live again. Um talk about later today's threat and tomorrow's threat here.

[01:03:16]Uh tomorrow being the uh the 20th.

[01:03:19]Um So, we'll talk about that cuz there's another threat for like the plains and and a bit of a flooding threat along along with it, too.

[01:03:27]But, I mean honestly, I feel like most of the activity tonight's pretty much over with. Knock on wood. Knock on wood. It's not a guarantee, but like most of the activity is is over with.

[01:03:39]A lot of a lot of flooding though, man.

[01:03:41]A lot of flooding.

[01:03:42]And uh unfortunately, as we go into tomorrow or later today, uh that's going to continue to be a big problem.

[01:03:49]But, if there's anything that you guys want me to look at or go over before I roll off here, let me know. Um Let's see here.

[01:04:00]Oh my gosh, dude. I didn't even notice this.

[01:04:04]Michael coming in with a $10 Cash App donation.

[01:04:11]Thank you so much, Michael. I'm so sorry I didn't see this. It literally just popped up like 5 minutes ago.

[01:04:19]Dude, thank you so much, Michael. I really appreciate the $10. It helps us out a lot. So, thank you.

[01:04:26]Let me uh let me double-check my Venmo just to make sure nobody sent anything.

[01:04:29]And if they did, then I could tell it cuz it unfortunately, my phone it doesn't notify me sometimes if people do. Okay.

[01:04:37]Now, we're good.

[01:04:38]But, uh Michael, thank you so much, dude, once again for the 10. That That means a lot. It helps me out a lot. It helps pay for the bills and uh you know, and all that stuff.

[01:04:47]So, thank you so much, friend. Really appreciate it. But, uh yeah, guys, if there's uh anything you want me to go over here before I roll off here, um let me know.

[01:04:55]And I'll definitely be more than happy to help you guys.

[01:04:58]Um but yeah, honestly, I think that's I think that's all that's going to be needed for tonight. I don't think we're going to need to be here much longer. I think uh I think it was good I popped on for just a little bit longer. Oh, we did got a severe warning up here in Texas, though.

[01:05:11]Oh, yeah, this is the beginning of those Texas storms. Yeah, so the models they uh they showed uh quite a bit of storms popping off here later on this morning.

[01:05:20]Um so we're going to have to watch out for that uh cuz they're going to go roll through the Dallas area here like later on this morning. Um this one's warm for quarter hail, 60 mph winds up by Novice Novice Texas.

[01:05:36]Um also Silver Valley.

[01:05:40]So.

[01:05:42]Anyways, friends. Well, I think that's probably going to go ahead and wrap it up here. If you guys are new here, consider subscribing, maybe leaving a like, and uh the most thing the most important thing you guys can do to help us out is share this uh with your friends and your family just to help kind of spread the word, you know, maybe share it to Facebook or uh or Twitter or whatever just to kind of help get the word out there, you know, it helps get the channel noticed and um you know, the more that we're noticed, the more that we can reach people, and the more that we can reach people, the more that we can help out.

[01:06:07]And the more we can help out, the more potential lives could be saved, and and people could be helped. So, that is the main goal here is to help as many people as possible. So, I really do appreciate if you guys could do that. Um it really would help out a a ton.

[01:06:21]But uh yeah, I think that's going to go ahead and call it up for or go ahead and call it for tonight. Yeah, I'm going to get some sleep. I'm a little bit tired here. Um but yeah, tomorrow as far as the streams go, tomorrow afternoon we're going to do a live for you guys probably so sometime early early tomorrow afternoon.

[01:06:34]Um just to kind of talk about later tomorrow's threat and then the day after threat.

[01:06:39]Um and then that evening tomorrow evening we'll probably go live again for you guys give you all another update. So.

[01:06:46]Anyways, friend. Anyways, anyways.

[01:06:49]William with the thumbs up.

[01:06:51]>> [laughter] >> Have a great night, William. Have a great night, guys. I really appreciate y'all for stopping by, but yeah.

[01:06:57]All righty, guys. Well, that's going to go ahead and wrap it up. Y'all have a wonderful wonderful rest of your day um or night, I should say. Um thanks for stopping by. I hope you guys uh have a great night, great rest, and uh you know, you guys stay safe out there and and all that stuff. But we'll we'll see y'all later on. We'll see you guys later on.

[01:07:15]All righty guys, thanks for joining.

[01:07:16]Hope y'all have a wonderful rest of your night, and we'll see y'all here in the next one. Peace out, my friends. See you later on.