Paxton, Talarico to Battle for US Senate Seat

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]As we consider Conan's loss here, and his contention that he trusts the voters of Texas are the Cornyn voters of Texas likely to become Paxton voters in November? Or could they turn to the Democratic candidate, James Talarico? Well, that's that's a really big question. I mean, some of these more moderate Republicans, Bush Republicans, if you will, independent voters.

[00:00:22]Um, Talarico is James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, is making a play for them. Uh, after Cornyn lost last night in Paxton's victory, we shifted our rating from likely Republican to lean Republican. Texas is still a state that Trump won by almost 14 points now. It was much closer in 2020 by about six points, uh, that, uh, that Trump won it. So it could be much closer in a midterm cycle. Paxton is still favored, and we're already seeing Republicans really attack Talarico as too liberal, painting him as too woke Sarah Wing in on comments he's made today about cotton being non-binary, which he said was poorly phrased.

[00:01:04]Um, but I think that this is going to be a very expensive problem.

[00:01:10]More importantly for national Republicans, because they were behind John Cornyn and they were already saying that Ken Paxton was a problem for them and that he was going to make this race harder for them to hold.

[00:01:22]Yeah. And more than $130 million was spent on the Republican primary and runoff alone. I just wonder if you think the money ultimately makes a difference here is Talarico right now seems like he has the financial advantage. But Cornyn also had the financial advantage and lost by 28 points. Well, Bill Cassidy also had the financial advantage. He was the first incumbent to lose on Trump's revenge tour of sorts in Louisiana.

[00:01:46]I think that in a Republican primary, when you have taken stances against Trump and you don't have Trump's endorsement when he is endorsed against you, I think Cornyn was someone that was out of step with sort of the direction of the Texas Republican Party. And I think in Paxton's Trump saw someone that was a kindred spirit and also felt like he was being unfairly maligned and attacked. So I think that really but the primary is not the general election. National Republicans are going to have to spend perhaps 200, $250 million here. And there's a real question of is that rate? Is that money going to come from other candidate, other potential races that they would like to put in play?

[00:02:26]Could it be sort of a you broke it, you bought it situation that they tell Trump about where his super PAC, MAGA Inc perhaps has to come in here and try to stave off the damage. Well, because Republicans are trying to defend other seats as well. Alaska, Maine, North Carolina.

[00:02:43]Where is the easiest Democratic pickup opportunity right now?

[00:02:46]Jessica. I think it's in North Carolina, where Roy Cooper has been consistently ahead in an open seat there with Thom Tillis, not with Thom Tillis retiring, not running.

[00:02:56]He's running against the former RNC chairman, Michael Whatley.

[00:02:59]We shifted that race last month from tossup to lean Democrat.

[00:03:03]And I think next would be Susan Collins and Maine.

[00:03:06]She's the only Republican running in a state that Harris carried that Trump has never won. Uh, but she's running against, uh, Graham Platner and will be the Democratic nominee after Janet Mills decided to step down from that primary that she was probably going to lose.

[00:03:21]He has a lot of baggage posts that he's made on Reddit, comments, and, uh, form a controversial nap Nazi inspired tattoo.

[00:03:29]So this is not a certain pick up for Democrats either.

[00:03:32]They have to pick up four seats and everything has to go right.

[00:03:35]So I think North Carolina is looking like their best pickup opportunity, but they still have to win Maine and that, and then they have to pick up two additional seats in states that Trump won by double digits.

[00:03:48]And quickly, uh, Jessica, on the California gubernatorial races, that primary is next Tuesday. What is your expectation in the aftermath of Eric Swalwell departure? I think that Democrats are no longer worried about being locked out of that top two primary.

[00:04:04]I think that if broadcaster Republican Steve Helton will advance and it will probably be either former HHS Secretary Harvey or Basara, who's polling in the lead for Democrats right now, or billionaire Tom Steyer, who has spent record amounts on that primary. Well, and Javier Becerra, a sense has been surprising to many. Would it surprise you ultimately if he does come out on top here? When I talk to California Democrats, they say that some sort of elected experience matters, that, you know, you will really only have the two Republicans and Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ronald Reagan that didn't have previous elected experience.

[00:04:42]So they turned to sort of former statewide elected officials.

[00:04:45]Before he was former HHS secretary, he was California attorney general and a congressman. So I think that Harvey or Basara, his rise was quick after the vacuum that Swalwell left.

[00:04:56]But it sort of makes sense. And Latinos are also the largest voting, one of the largest voting blocs in California as well.