Why Million Protesters Cannot Stop the Iranian Regime

Added: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]Here's kind of how I'm seeing the uh Raza Pahlavi's call to action could unfold uh without like tons of weaponry and um arming a bunch of people.

[00:00:12]Um tell me what you think, okay? So, I think it the the call to action to topple the Islamic regime will probably not occur in one day or or a week, but probably a long for a long campaign lasting months with the populace working in shifts.

[00:00:25]With tens of millions of participants, even if unarmed, a sustained campaign could be launched that would totally overwhelm the resources of the regime to cope.

[00:00:35]In other words, like just with the sheer numbers of people who would be like you would saturate the streets with, you know, with without even like a small percentage, like 2% of the population uprising which means that you could probably sustain that kind of revolt for months.

[00:00:52]And I don't see how the Islamic regime could you know, obviously there would be casualties, but I don't see how the Islamic regime could withstand an onslaught like that.

[00:01:02]Wait, you're saying without arming the Iranian people, if we get 2% of the population to rise up, the Islamic Republic would not be able to survive that?

[00:01:13]>> No.

[00:01:13]I'm saying, okay, so the revolt will occur like within in a day, right? Like there'll be a one-day revolt, but then you could work if you work in shifts, you could sustain that like day after day after day, you could have millions of people on the streets literally overwhelming any kind of infra, you know, any kind of ability for the Islamic regime the uh Basij or whoever to respond. Obviously, there'll be massive casualties, and obviously any kind of armed citizenry would be a plus, it would be a bonus, but just the logistics of millions of people on the streets day after day after day I would think would completely overwhelm the um the capacity of the regime.

[00:01:58]Okay. And you're saying 2%?

[00:02:01]Well, 2% per day. In one day, 2%. Next day, another shift, 2%. Right?

[00:02:07]Okay, so let's examine that, okay?

[00:02:09]Because let's look at what happened in early January, right? In early January, the estimates suggest that this was European intelligence systems suggested that all over Iran about 5 million Iranians came out.

[00:02:24]Right?

[00:02:25]So, 5 million out of close to 90 million Iranians inside Iran is more than 5%.

[00:02:31]Okay? It's like closer to 6%.

[00:02:34]Right? Right. I I don't see this happening like across Iran. I I would think that it would occur within highly popular like Tehran, for instance, right? So, like let's say there's 10 million people in Tehran, right?

[00:02:47]That would be like So, 10 million people >> people How many How many people would it take to saturate the streets of Tehran, for instance, in terms of like a protest?

[00:03:02]Um I can't So, 10 10 million pe- 10 million people in Tehran is more than half of Tehran.

[00:03:10]Right? Oh, it is? Okay. What's the population of Tehran? It's like 17 million.

[00:03:17]Okay, so if if a small percentage of that saturated the streets day after day after day, wouldn't they be able to completely over like overwhelm the Only in Tehran.

[00:03:28]message?

[00:03:29]Well, I'm just giving it out as an example.

[00:03:32]That already happened in January.

[00:03:35]So, why wouldn't that be a way to secure like Once you Once they overtake Tehran, couldn't they >> Let me tell you, okay? So, you if you only focus on Tehran, that means that the Islamic Republic can bring all of its security all of his forces to Tehran.

[00:03:56]If you don't have protests in other places.

[00:03:59]And also, if you have So, here's Let me Let me examine what you're trying to do. But by the way, I said that I really appreciate you trying to find a way to, you know, liberate Iran. Like this is I I I really you have such a big heart and I really appreciate your support, right?

[00:04:15]If we have we have millions of Iranians in the streets, okay, and they're unarmed, and then the regime forces will come to the streets and they start shooting into the crowds, what happens then?

[00:04:29]See, I from my Okay, so here's what I don't understand. I don't understand how Prince Reza Pahlavi's call to action is going to unfold. So, I'm trying to like work like trying to simulate that in my head. Like how So, you That's what I'm trying to do.

[00:04:43]>> what to We're trying to think about that, right? Because what do you If you have millions of Iranians in the streets, and then the regime forces come out, and there's crowds of people in the streets, and they take machine guns and they start shooting into the crowds of people. What do you think happens next?

[00:05:01]I'm assuming there'll be some support, some limited, maybe like a small percentage of armed support, possibly through drones or whatever. I'm assuming it's going to be very limited though.

[00:05:13]Just, you know, because obviously the logistics of large large crowds with uh military support, I just don't see how that could be organized. So, that's why I see the Pahlavi >> some limited drone support.

[00:05:28]If that doesn't stop the regime armed forces to keep shooting into crowds of people with machine guns, then what would happen?

[00:05:37]I'm assuming that there'll be high casualties in the initial phases, but then if they can keep it up day after day, >> They can't keep We know they can't They They We know they couldn't keep it up because we had 5 million Iranians in the streets of Iran.

[00:05:53]And given that once the shooting started, the crowd had to leave. We know there's you can't just stand there while you're being shot at.

[00:06:02]Right? So it's like it's we can't they wouldn't be able to keep it up. If you're just standing there and there's armed forces shooting into you, you can't continue to just stay there, right? But I mean I'm going to assume there's something there.

[00:06:17]Yeah.

[00:06:18]I'm assuming there will be some limited military support. So for instance, when they do come out, I I'm assuming that you know, there will be US, I don't know, pinpoint strikes or So this is why we don't This is why I think we should just arm the Iranian people because we don't know. But we don't know if there will be and we don't know if it's even if there is if it's going to be good enough.

[00:06:45]Yeah. Right?

[00:06:46]>> I don't Yep. No, go ahead. I'm just wondering how these weapons are going to ever get to the Iranian people. I I I just don't I I I just logistically I'm I don't know. Like how how would that even happen? There are ways. There are ways. I mean it's a good question.

[00:07:06]I could look into that if you for you if you want and maybe Yeah, actually that would be something that I think You know what? In my next stream, which is starting with Ali um Ali here, that's something that we could brainstorm.

[00:07:21]That what are the different ways to get weapons into the hands of Iranians.

[00:07:25]That's a Actually, that's a very good question, right?

[00:07:28]That's a very good question and I would love to, you know, brainstorm that with you know, I you guys could if you have if anybody has any ideas here, put a two in the chat. My idea was to liberate Bandar Abbas, right? And then Americans would liberate Bandar Abbas.

[00:07:46]And then Prince Reza Pahlavi would put a call to action to the Iranian people to come to Bandar Abbas from all around the world. And Prince Reza Pahlavi's team, along with the Israeli Mossad and the agents inside Iran, would vet the Iranians who are coming to Bandar Abbas, vet them, and then we have Ukrainian soldiers train them with drone technology and also how to use guns.

[00:08:12]Ukrainian soldiers would train them.

[00:08:14]And then we will create an Iranian army starting from Bandar Abbas, keep expanding, and taking more territory until they get to Tehran.

[00:08:23]That was my plan. That was the plan I suggested. And but we could think see what other people think here. But one thing I want to add here is that many of us I know Nader, I don't know if you want to comment on this because I want to admit that we were wrong about something. We Iranians thought that once the Iranian people come into the streets in the millions, it's over.

[00:08:50]That was our assumption.

[00:08:51]That once the Iranian people come into the streets in a on an uprising, the Islamic Republic will fall and they would overwhelm them. We weren't prepared for what the Islamic Republic did in early January. We were not at all prepared for that. Yeah. And I mean, we were we were thinking that something would happen for sure, but definitely not to this extent. And a lot of the people that did go out were expecting something to happen because we do have instances where their families are single, they left out they left letters and notes for them before they were leaving. Like um if I don't come back or stuff like that. But absolutely not to this extent. I mean, within not even 2 days. Okay, 2 days is 48 hours.

[00:09:39]Our men have said this before. 10 hours in a in the uh timeline of 10 hours is when they killed all those people. So, yeah. I mean, this is why I'm saying the next uprising, we need the forces there.

[00:09:53]We need the We need They need to target the security forces that are machine gunning people basically. Uh and that was the main um obstacle, right?

[00:10:04]That was the main obstacle.

[00:10:06]Yeah. By the way, you should guys you should ask Nader more questions. She has a lot of deep information about Iran and the people.

[00:10:14]I don't know about that, but I do I can give insights on the Armenians of Iran and the Christians of Iran and stuff like that cuz I know there's a lot of um arguments and misconceptions on that, but I can give insights on the Armenian community over there.

[00:10:28]Uh but maybe some other time because we only have 7 minutes left.

[00:10:32]Okay. Go ahead, Sotor.

[00:10:34]>> Yeah. So, Ian, very quickly, okay? Maybe like 1 minute. Go ahead.

[00:10:38]Okay. Um so, Sotor, I really appreciate you bringing up this topic and um I hope we can bring keep brainstorming on these ideas and asking as many questions as possible about how this can work.

[00:10:50]Um I've been asking similar questions and one of the things that I've been thinking about is uh what infrastructure and supply chains can be overwhelmed by general strikes, sabotage, boycotts, and other forms of protest that don't expose people to being shot in the streets.

[00:11:11]So, I want to just put that out there that we really should be thinking more about those types of protests.

[00:11:17]And then the other thing I've been thinking about is how can you maximize defections? And one thing I'll say about that is that there's a lot of stick and not much carrot. And what I'm hoping to see is more of a message about what people can expect if they do defect and what can incentivize them to do that.

[00:11:39]In the research I've done, it seems like it's possible that more than 50% if not nearly 80% of current members of the various militaries will not be subject to prosecution after a revolution. I don't Who knows about these numbers, but it could be fairly large. And in the case of those people, I think you really need to incentivize them to to defect by showing them that they're going to have a reasonable life after power after the power shifts. And so I just want to put that out there that I think that's super important, but I really really appreciate as much brainstorming on this topic as possible because we can do all the things that we're talking about. We can arm people, we can we can continue the bombing, we can continue the blockade, but there are many other things we could do that could potentially really push the needle over the edge. And so I want to push for that. Thanks a lot.

[00:12:35]Thank you, Ian. Uh Guy, you're next. 1 minute.

[00:12:39]Okay, so first of all, in terms of getting the weapons in, as we said, the the border is porous. It goes both ways.

[00:12:45]Uh they absolutely cannot guard the whole border of this huge country. I think they're expecting it to come from sea. So I and and it'll be easy to to find that way. My my guess would be Azerbaijan as the uh the main We have free access to Azerbaijan.

[00:13:03]It's easy to get stuff in there and through there.

[00:13:07]And now after the the treaty with Armenia, potentially for Armenia as well. But I'm not as comf- I know Azerbaijan is more comfortable in terms of like long-standing relations and being opposed to to the IRGC and so on.

[00:13:22]As for what happens inside Iran, we're not expecting it in January.

[00:13:26]We are expecting it now. Like we we know that they're capable of basic basically anything now. We we weren't sure earlier. The The issue then becomes what tools do they have? But I don't think they have many more tools.

[00:13:43]First of all, that's that's intelligence. That's easy to find. And I don't think they have much more than what they used in January.

[00:13:49]It's okay. We could go like 2 minutes longer.

[00:13:52]Okay, sounds good. Go ahead.

[00:13:55]Well, they have way less of everything now than they did in January. So, whatever they did in January, I think is the maximum of what they're capable of doing. The question is the numbers.

[00:14:04]Maybe they'll have more people, but we'll have more people as well. And our people will be ready. And we'll have drones and other stuff from the air to stop them. So, I I don't think whatever I I I I I assume that they're going to try to do anything and everything that they can to stop it. I just don't think it's going to be a lot. And knowing what their capabilities are is something that we have way more of a handle on in intelligence-wise. I don't know if you saw that now yesterday they started I did.

[00:14:36]you know, pro-regime people on TV on how to use guns. And they now want to just get They just want to give guns to pro-regime Iranians to basically shoot at the uprising.

[00:14:48]So >> Yeah, but first of all, they're they're not trained. Second of all, the people will be ready for it.

[00:14:54]And third of all, let's say let's say it's a you mentioned you threw out the number 100,000 last night. Let's say that's true.

[00:15:01]We we already assumed a a few hundred thousand operatives, no?

[00:15:06]So, we'll have We'll have some of them are would be amateurs. I don't think I don't see how that meaningfully changes the the calculus assuming you have both air raids to to minimize their capabilities, uh drones, and uh and some some form of armed population that's specifically trained at finding the threats as they're coming and taking them out, especially if those threats are untrained and just are carrying a firearm from the opposite side.

[00:15:37]And if someone does it from inside the the the protest, then unfortunately they'll kill a few people, but everyone is around them. So, they'll really be able to take them out easily.

[00:15:48]Yeah, by the way, one way we were thinking that maybe the best way to arm the Iranian people is to tell them to go act like jihadi retards and wherever they're handing out guns to the pro-regime people and just get a gun.

[00:16:04]>> [laughter] >> All right, uh Sketch, you're next and then Armin is going to leave.

[00:16:10]Okay, what I'd like to say about this, uh I hope we're not talking about before the strikes.

[00:16:14]Because if you try to do anything before the strikes, they're just going to get slaughtered.

[00:16:18]Right?

[00:16:19]I I hope we're talking about after the strikes, once the strikes commence. I think we're going to have a lot more coordination on what to do once the strikes commence. I would look I'm infantry, all right? I know how easy it is to kill us. It's very easy. Like a good shot in the leg or the arm can just bleed you out, all right? There's things you can do, but it we're not bulletproof, right? We do get hit, even well-trained, even even in the even in the Maduro rate. Because we got good equipment and we got good medical stuff.

[00:16:50]Do it is fine, but he got hit, right?

[00:16:52]We're not bulletproof, so you don't want to send infantry just in the street until you know you have cover, until you know things are happen. So, I understand. This was my whole point with we hit 13,000 targets. I understand that hunger and suffering can demoralize and it can create desperation, but desperation cannot lead to foolish action.

[00:17:14]All All you can't just go out there and start protesting or have some flash point because some person got executed and it felt like it's gone too far. You can't just head out there willy-nilly. I would say wait for the strikes. The strikes are coming. Every point on the graph leads draws a line to that. You don't want to just waste lives, all right? I am a soldier willing to give my life.

[00:17:40]And and I am sure I have that in common with some of those protesters.

[00:17:45]But that's not a thing to be wasted. You you want to live for your country. You don't want to die for it unless it's absolutely necessary.

[00:17:53]Stand by. And we don't know what's going on behind the scenes.

[00:17:56]We don't know. We think nothing has happened. We don't know if a whole bunch of stuff will We don't even have that to go into the details of that. I'm sure stuff is going on. So, let's just try to let calmer heads prevail.

[00:18:06]And give tell those people, "Hey, we hit 13,000 targets. We had to rearm and resupply.

[00:18:14]Don't be disheartened.

[00:18:16]We're we're We have done more than anyone in 47 years and we're not done.

[00:18:23]Thank you, Sketch. Thank you. Well, Arman's time is up. I wanted to thank everybody for being understanding of the time limits. Arman, you Did you want to add something? No, I just wanted to thank you. You're amazing and thank you for modding.

[00:18:37]Uh fantastic job. Hopefully, I get to hear Nader more often. Like I do want to hear Nader has a lot of interesting thoughts. Every time uh she's here, I'm hoping to hear some of her ideas. So, uh maybe some other time, but I know when you're modding, it's hard to also, you know, talk as well.

[00:18:56]>> Yeah.

[00:18:56]But when I'm gone, the conver- And Nader, are you going to be sticking around or do you have to go after I leave?

[00:19:02]I can stick around for a bit, yeah. Uh okay. So, guys, like Nader, you know, a lot of people are interested in Christianity and the Christian community in Iran. So, when I leave, you you guys could because guys when I like for people on YouTube when I leave the conversation here continues, right? So, if you have any questions >> though, disclaimer because I'm an atheist but Yeah, now she's an atheist.

[00:19:25]>> She's an atheist but her background your background is within the Christian community in Iran, correct? Yes.

[00:19:31]Yes, yeah. So, she she would know. I mean, of course you're an atheist, you're an Iranian. I'm just kidding.

[00:19:37]Okay.

[00:19:37]>> [laughter] >> Yeah, I'm just kidding. I can talk about the how the church operates inside Iran.

[00:19:46]That's I think you would want to hear that, Arman. Oh my god, you know what?

[00:19:50]Now I'm jealous. I You know what? Don't ask her dad. Don't ask her dad because I want to have that conversation with her, okay? Please don't ask her dad. Now I'm going to be missing out on a very interesting conversation. God damn it.

[00:20:01]All right.

[00:20:01]>> no worries. We'll talk about that.

[00:20:03]Okay, okay.