Philippines Rain Chance going Up…

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]the rain chance going up across the Philippines and the chance of tropical development. Tracking those both in this video on Mr. Weatherman Asia. Thank you for being with me. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. It is Wednesday, April 22nd, 2026. Moisture building back toward the Marshall Islands and watching over toward Micronia that is going to head its way toward the Philippines.

[00:00:22]That's exactly what we're watching. Now, here's a look out in time over the next seven days. You could see these areas of rain, northern sections, southern sections, Mindanao, back toward Luzon.

[00:00:32]We're going to see that higher rain chance and we could see some totals that top 100 mm of rain. That is going to be a possibility as we go over the next seven days. This is a model though, and you know, I don't just look at the models. Uh I look at what's going on in the environment. This is probably a little bit overdone. What I mean by that is this is probably showing a little bit too much rain, but that chance of rain is going to be higher. Let's take a look at what we could expect out toward as we look off into the Pacific out toward the east. That's where the rain chanc is going to be building. I mentioned the Marshall Islands back toward Palao.

[00:01:05]We're going to see that higher chance of rain. That's what's going to be edging our way as we work our way forward. Now, as far as the chance of tropical development goes, you see right through here, these brighter colors showing up.

[00:01:15]Here we are across Guam and the northern Mariana Islands. A slight chance of tropical development. This is based off of the European model. the GFS, a different model, has this becoming some sort of tropical depression. If you are subscribed to this channel, as I see any uh development, potentially a typhoon, I will let you know right away. You'll get those notifications first. Now, I'm looking at the environment. This here's a look ahead. This is by Tuesday of next week. So, we're going out in time here.

[00:01:42]Here we are in the Philippines. I know this map is crazy. A little spin in through here and not a lot of windshar.

[00:01:48]Here's the windshare. This is the hostile environment here. Not so much here because it is not hostile here.

[00:01:55]This area may start to develop. Not only is there a lack of wind shear, which doesn't benefit us. That could allow a system to develop. Also, warm water temperatures. You see these numbers, they are up there. And in fact, they're running above average in many spots.

[00:02:09]This orange shading right where we're going to see a lot of rain the next few days. Uh above average water temperatures where we had Slaku and to the north, things have cooled a little bit. So, we're dealing with low wind shear and above average water temperatures. Uh, that is conducive for some development. That's why I'm watching it very carefully. I've got you covered first here on this channel. Any signs of development, I'll let you know.

[00:02:30]Let me show you how this shakes out.

[00:02:31]Here we are in the Philippines. Get back toward the Mariana Islands, uh, back toward Micronia, over toward the Marshall Islands this here, this afternoon. Hit or miss shower, mainly dry across the Philippines. Seeing some of the rain, Brunai, uh, over toward Indonesia. But watching this rain, this is what we're going to watch build.

[00:02:48]Batches of it. About three batches of rain. So, we're going to see these tropical waves working across. The first one will start to build. Let's jump out in time here. Work our way into Friday.

[00:02:57]This here's on Friday. And you see the rain sitting right in through here.

[00:03:01]There's the first batch of rain. This is the one that is going to make a run at the Philippines and increase our rain chance second half of the weekend and even more so into early next week. And then more moisture building back toward the Marshall Islands. Those are the next batches of rain that we'll be watching.

[00:03:16]And in this one, the chance of tropical development. So, as we go forward from Friday and going out in time here into the weekend, there's the first batch of rain. What I'm going to do in this video, I'm going to zoom down and show you this as it tries to get closer to the Philippines. The better chance of rain plus all across Asia, including South Asia. In this video, we'll go over some of the rain totals. Thank you for your patience. Here's that rain building. So, we've got this headed toward the Philippines. This though kind of runs into the wall, the summertime wall if you will, the heat, the dryness.

[00:03:47]And you see how some of it fizzles out, right? Uh we don't need it to fizzle out. We need some of the rain, but some of it's going to fizzle out. But at least by the time we get into the start of the next working week, some of us are going to have the better chance of rain.

[00:03:59]And then here come the next guys. This one and this one. This is the spin that may develop. More rain back toward the Marshall Islands. And I mentioned in this area, low wind shear, warm water temperatures, and a couple ingredients are in place for this area to get a little bit of a spin. This is what we'll be watching. And I'll put out those additional updates. So subscribers, you'll get those notifications if you've hit that bell. Going out in time here as we work our way into Tuesday. So almost a week out in time here. You get a little curl in here. Keeping an eye on the increased chance of rain in the Philippines. Not a wash out, but a better chance of rain. And this is the spot we'll be watching by next week to see if there's any signs of development.

[00:04:37]If that doesn't develop, we'll watch what's going on back toward the east.

[00:04:42]This here that zoomed down look and this is what we're watching. So we're kind of going back uh to to now this afternoon and you can see a very small chance of a shower. Devou, we may catch some Sibu.

[00:04:52]Small chance of a shower. That beat goes on. By the way, let me know if you do get any showers the next few days. Put it in the comments section if you get any of those popup showers as we work our way forward. This here is by Friday.

[00:05:03]So, a couple days from now. Here's the rain. We're watching that first batch that I mentioned on the wide picture.

[00:05:08]Here it comes. This is that first batch that will be approaching. But it runs into that wall of summer, the heat, the dry air, and some of it does fizzle. It almost gets absorbed by the atmosphere.

[00:05:19]The atmosphere is so dry, it acts like a sponge, if you will. But some of the showers will at least be enhanced. So, this is kind of the start maybe of getting to a slightly wet wetter pattern. You see as we work our way into Sunday afternoon, you see a couple of spotty showers. Still not much though.

[00:05:35]Still not much. But the next working week, that's when the rain chance will start to bump up. You see a few spots.

[00:05:41]Lousan, we could still see a few showers, but as we work our way into Mindanao, that's when we'll get a better chance. So, keeping m in mind, while this first batch is going to fizzle out quite a bit, uh we still have a slightly better chance of rain. So, that's good news. And here is Tuesday, hit or miss.

[00:05:56]And there's more stuff back toward the east that we'll be watching as we work our way forward. So, baby steps to getting some of this good news around.

[00:06:05]Taking a look at some of the rain totals as we work our way forward. Uh, this is the broad picture. This is the area we'll be watching right in through here for any signs of development. Now, back to 3 days. Earlier, I showed you the 7-day rain total. This here, the 3-day rain total. you get a look over toward Mindanao back really southern sections really south of Sibu we're looking at some of the totals uh that'll generally be between 10 maybe 15 millimeters that's if if we get some rain but a few spots will be a bit more get over toward Vietnam over toward LA still watching out for some of those heavier areas of rain and Cambodia not as much not as much especially as you get back toward uh Cambodia and then watching this moisture this is that front this time of year just hanging around we talked about this in the last video back through parts of China, Taiwan, we could see a few spots of 100 mm of rain, even a little bit more in southern sections of Japan. I mentioned Tokyo has been the line. Tokyo south better chance of rain mainly dry as we get over toward South Korea. And then we swing back toward Brunai, watching some of the totals, interior sections, a little bit more central sections where some of the totals could top 100 millimeters, get back toward India, Bangladesh, mainly the dry conditions as we work forward.

[00:07:19]So, the rain it is starting to build now as we slowly transition into a more tropical pattern. Watching how far west it gets. Remember that first batch kind of falls apart. Does give us a better chance but not a huge chance. But overall, we're getting that increase and monitoring for that chance of development which we need to watch very carefully and we will do so right here together. Mr. Weatherman Asia, thank you for being part of this quickly growing weather community. Have a wonderful day ahead.