This Severe Threat Just Got More Serious...

[00:00:00]A significant severe weather event is about to unfold across the United States and this is going to bring strong tornadoes. Today, a very unstable atmosphere will lead to a dangerous line of severe thunderstorms which will bring wind gusts of over 80 mph, very large hail, EF2 plus tornadoes, and significant flash flooding. But this is only the beginning of a much more active weather pattern as severe storms are expected to expand across a much larger portion of the United States in the days ahead. This weekend is going to feature a lot of crazy severe weather. So let's get right into the forecast. And we are going to jump right into the severe weather potential over the next few days. And the risk area is continuing to grow for all three days. Beginning with today, we have a level three risk of severe weather for southern Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and much of central northern Kansas. A large level two risk stretching from Omaha back into Witchah and Kansas City, and a marginal threat of severe weather from Salt Lake City back into Amarillo, Texas, where all hazards of severe weather will be on the table today. We're talking about multiple rounds of thunderstorms, a couple of discrete supercells will be possible, which will pose an elevated risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes. But we will also have a line of thunderstorms that'll produce really significant straight line damaging wind gusts. Should start in eastern Colorado this afternoon and move into central eastern Kansas this evening and even into the overnight hours with damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph possible. There is also a threat of large to very large hail. We could have a few hail storms that produce baseball sized hail. So make sure you're protecting your vehicle here across the central plains and there will be a risk of a few strong tornadoes. We do have an EF2 plus tornado threat in place which includes areas like Carney, Nebraska, Scotsluff and back towards Salina. So make sure you have a lot of ways to receive weather alerts today. There is a pretty high chance that we will be live at some point later today. So make sure you are subscribed to the channel and click the bell icon so you're notified for when we do go live tomorrow. The risk of severe weather will grow in size and shift further to the east. Right now we have a large level two slight risk of severe weather for much of the lower Midwest into the mid Mississippi River Valley and including Oklahoma and Kansas like Oklahoma City and Tulsa and a marginal threat that goes as far east as Columbus and Cincinnati where damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard and there could be some large hail maybe up to 10 smallsized hail if you live over in northwestern Kansas near Goodland. But there is also another threat of strong tornadoes. I would say tomorrow is a somewhat conditional risk for strong tornadoes. It's really going to come down to our morning convection. There's going to be storms that are going to be happening tonight and those will go all the way into tomorrow morning here in the Midwest and the Mid Mississippi Valley. And depending on the evolution of those storms, we might have a boundary left over and if there is a boundary and supercells can form along it in the afternoon, there will be a legitimate risk of significant tornadoes near St. Louis, Columbia, and back towards Springfield, Missouri. But I will say these tornado probabilities could definitely be increased in future outlooks, especially with how much low-level wind shear we're going to have. But it's going to come down to what happens in the morning. So for right now, it's a 5% tornado threat, but do not be shocked if it goes enhanced later today or even tomorrow. And then to start your work week, we have a large marginal threat of severe weather stretching from Denver, Colorado into Dallas and Washington DC. This is a very large area. There's going to be all sorts of different severe storms at play here. I do think the greatest threat of severe weather though will be over here in the Mid-Atlantic where we will have a pocket of stronger low-level wind shear which may lead to a localized higher tornado threat if you live in Virginia, North Carolina or even Maryland. We'll talk more about that here in a moment.

[00:03:37]But generally speaking right now the risk is going to be isolated for most of the country. That could change though in future outlooks. Now let's talk more about the timing of severe weather and we'll start with what is happening today. We will have some scattered showers and thunderstorms if you live down near the Gulf Coast. Main concern will just be isolated damaging wind gusts. If anything ends up being severe, the bigger concern is going to be the risk of flooding. We are going to see plenty of rainfall down here from a weakening complex of thunderstorms throughout the rest of the morning into the afternoon. So, be on high alert if you're in the deep south or the southeast for an increased flooding threat over the next several hours. Over here in the central plains, it's going to be pretty quiet this morning into the early afternoon. There could be a few rumbles of thunder and maybe an isolated quarter sized hail storm from northern Nebraska into extreme northeastern Kansas, but I'm not expecting much severe weather. My concern really grows after 4:00 because we'll have some storms coming off the mountains essentially and because of all this upflow slope that we're going to have in this area. It's going to allow for a very significant wind threat to develop as we go later into the afternoon hours.

[00:04:37]And though this does not look very impressive at 4 to 5:00, I can assure you that this will be producing damaging wind gusts, especially as we go later into the afternoon hours. And so by 6:00, we'll have a numerous to widespread damaging wind threat developing anywhere from basically Elcart all the way up towards Imperial.

[00:04:53]So this entire corridor here needs to be on high alert for an elevated damaging wind threat. You can even see this here if we go over to the wind gust map.

[00:05:00]There is going to be a large area here.

[00:05:02]Any of these yellows are indicating winds exceeding 60 mph and some models like the HR here are showing 79 80 mph winds at 6:00. And so this will quickly turn into a very significant damaging wind threat despite the simulated reflectivity not looking overly impressive. So keep in mind if you're in Kansas, Colorado, or even Nebraska, this is going to be pretty dangerous. As we approach 6 to 7:00, there will also be storms going up near Omaha, Nebraska.

[00:05:30]will probably be live around this time.

[00:05:31]I've had to guess, but we're going to have a lot of large hail storms out there, maybe some damaging wind gusts.

[00:05:36]The tornado threat in this area particularly should stay on the lower side of things unless a storm can sneak into the slightly higher corridor here uh of wind shear and also a maybe a slightly higher tornado potential. But overall, the risk I think is going to be low out there in far eastern Nebraska.

[00:05:51]But we could squeeze out a tornado or two even as those storms go towards Kansas City. And at 8:00, there might even be a supercell back over in western Nebraska that could also produce a significant tornado threat. Otherwise, a large line of thunderstorms will continue to push towards Hayes and Salina, and that will continue to produce damaging wind gusts between 60 to 80 mph. At 10 to 11:00, storms are going to be flirting with the Kansas City area. Keep in mind, there is going to be a low-end tornado potential in this area. And there's also a moderate risk of excessive rainfall. And so, a big-time flooding threat could also develop while this is all happening. I do want to touch on the flooding potential because again there is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall in place and right now the HR model tonight into early tomorrow morning is forecasting a widespread 2 to 6 ines of rain from Lincoln back into Kansas City and you bet your bottom dollar that there will be some areas that pick up even closer to 8 to 10 ines of rain because of all the overlapping showers and thunderstorms. So if you are in a lowlying area, this is going to be your night and morning to be staying weather aare. And then on Sunday, the threat of severe weather is going to be, let's just put it this way, very interesting.

[00:06:57]This is going to be a weird day because there will be multiple rounds of storms and we do have an intensifying surface base low pressure system. So, this would naturally increase our tornado threat.

[00:07:06]It's going to come down to what happens in the morning. I will point out that here is the AR model run, the most recent one showing 12:00 on Sunday. This is the 06Z model run. So, this is the most recent one. And if we go back to the one 6 hours prior, notice how these storms are way further down to the south. So this is a 50 mile difference on this most recent model run. And the reason why I'm even pointing this out is that it's very important for the evolution of what our storms are going to do on Sunday. So right now, if this scenario were to take place and our storms are way further to the north, we are going to have a lot more warm and moist air surging to the north. And this is going to help for these storms to actually be in a more favorable environment for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. And so we really need to keep an eye on the trends here. But if this were to happen, we will be talking about a cluster of thunderstorms late morning into the early afternoon producing damaging wind gusts and even possibly a couple of strong tornadoes from St. Louis back towards Indianapolis. At 2 to three, the HR has this really intense line of thunderstorms near Mount Vernon and Charleston. Still producing 60 to 80 mileph winds with maybe an isolated supercell out in front of that. If that were to happen, we could see some very large hail and even a strong tornado.

[00:08:15]And then by 4 to 5, the outflow boundary that's going to be left over from this will be lifting off to the north. And this will help to initiate storms. And any supercell that can ride light right along that boundary will have a risk of producing a significant tornado threat.

[00:08:30]I will point out while this is happening, there will also be supercells over here in Nebraska and northwestern Kansas that could also produce an elevated tornado threat as there will be a localized area of STP value. So, there actually could be a photogenic tornado over near the North Plat area tomorrow afternoon. So, another very interesting little twist to our severe weather here on Sunday. By 5 to 6:00, storms are going to continue to move their way towards Cincinnati and Louisville, producing at least a significant damaging wind threat. Some supercells will be ongoing here in Nebraska and then a cluster will be going up from Witchah back into St. Louis and Springfield, Illinois. I think the main concern honestly with this cluster will probably be the damaging wind threat, but it is a conditional strong tornado threat due to the fact there is going to be a lot of wind shear in this environment and then by 8 to 9:00 it is going to be an absolute mess of storms out there. We'll have a lot of thunderstorms stretching from Woodward, Oklahoma back into Columbus. damaging wind gust and a couple of tornadoes will remain possible. And then beyond about 11 to 12:00, most of our severe weather will be winding down, but there could still be some isolated damaging wind gust left over and a nonzero tornado threat heading towards Nashville, Lexington, Kentucky, and back towards Fagatville, Arkansas. And then Monday is going to be another really messy day across the United States. We'll have remnant storms out there during Monday morning. So, if you are planning on traveling at all Monday morning over in Oklahoma or Arkansas, you can probably expect at least some passing showers and thunderstorms could make your commute pretty difficult. During the afternoon, I'm watching over here right along the east coast. We're looking near Salsbury, Washington, back near Richmond for a few rotating supercells. And there will at least be a nonzero tornado threat in this area. Generally speaking, our significant tornado parameter values are low. They're right between zero and one.

[00:10:14]So, our overall tornado threat should stay on the low side of things, but we'll be at least watching for maybe one or two tornadoes between maybe about 1:00 till about 8:00 in the afternoon.

[00:10:24]So, if you live near Richmond, Virginia Beach, Kill Devil Hills, watch out for some damaging winds and a couple of spin-up tornadoes and some localized flooding. And then anywhere else here in the southern plains in the Dixie Alley, expect some damaging wind gusts and a low tornado threat out of the storms going on here. probably will have a cluster of thunderstorms moving across Mississippi and Alabama and some isolated supercells in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Kansas. Overall though, the risk of severe weather and exactly where the highest risk is going to lie still remains uncertain, but we will keep you posted with the latest. Make sure you are subscribed to the channel.

[00:10:58]And then after Monday, we are expecting a somewhat active work week when it comes to showers and thunderstorms.

[00:11:04]There will likely be some severe weather Tuesday into Wednesday. I am eyeing a low-end threat in the Midwest on Tuesday. And we're also watching for some isolated to scattered severe storms from Denver back towards the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a little weak storm system will likely continue to spin over the Great Lakes. I'm not really expecting much right now on Wednesday, but things could definitely change, but there are some signals that there will be an active period of severe weather by next weekend. I'm looking at Saturday and Sunday for some severe weather over here in the Midwest, Northern Plains, perhaps back over in the Great Lakes. It's going to depend on exactly where this storm system sets up.

[00:11:38]Right now for Saturday, the latest European model run is showing the northern plains and then on Sunday it kind of shifts a little bit off to the east trying to go towards like Minneapolis for example. But right now there is a lot of uncertainty and these are just some of the latest European model runs. This is with the little compare model tool inside of Weatherfront. And so you can see the last several model runs here. And it has a different positioning for the storm system al together every single run for Sunday. So obviously this is not set in stone. It's about 7 to 8 days from now, but definitely got to watch this because if it does trend back towards the Midwest, we definitely could be talking about a very significant severe weather event taking place. And as always, thank you all so much for watching today's forecast. If you are new to the channel, make sure to subscribe down below. We will likely be live later today. I think we'll have a live stream tomorrow as well. So make sure you click the bell icon down below so you're notified with the latest updates. I also want to give you guys a heads up. We just released a new video on my second channel, More Max Velocity. There will be a link at the top of the description. Also, while you're over there, make sure to subscribe to this channel. We just released a video of a tornado happening on one of our live streams that nearly caused a catastrophe. Also, we have a 247 live weather stream over on the Mormax Velocity channel if you want to tune into this. There's live weather coverage. We got live weather alerts, stormchasers, cameras, and a lot of other cool stuff. So, make sure to check that out. And we will see you in the next video or live