Why Cuba won't be the next Venezuela | GZERO World

追加: 2026-04-28

[00:00:00]So, now we've had a a shift in US policy where Trump is expected to do something big. The a win is coming on Cuba. What what what do you see this policy so far as as moving towards?

[00:00:21]>> You are right that they have created very high expectations, especially where I live in Miami. Yeah, but certainly the Cuban Americans have to be thinking that finally Right.

[00:00:30]>> time. The the same way they were in 1991. Right?

[00:00:34][laughter] But this time they all want like an invasion.

[00:00:37]I mean, I don't know if they all want it. There was a poll recently that suggested that there's strong support for some kind of military action. That's actually long been the case. You can poll Cuban Americans going back years and years and find a majority of people will say, "Yeah, we'd like military action, but we also want the government to get out of the the the way if we want to send money to our mom, right?" So, so there's a lot of inconsistency and I think popular attitudes. But make no mistake, expectations are really high that the moment is coming. US diplomats have put that out that 2026 is the year of change, the year of liberation. But what's that going to mean?

[00:01:08]Um, you know, the Trump administration >> is no opposition on the ground in Cuba.

[00:01:12]It's it's not that there's no there is there is opposition.

[00:01:15]>> I mean, the the party, a group. There are many groups. The problem is that they are weak, they are uh not particularly united, and most of the significant leaders that have existed are either in jail or in exile. So, this is not anything like the Venezuela uh case where you had a very well organized opposition that despite its own history of fractiousness came together around the 2024 election. Um uh and and really, you know, won that election, I think has has been shown. So, >> And then a lot of them ended up in jail or in exile. Correct. But at least in that case, there is uh I think a plausible case that you could make that there is a political force that is not just ready, but willing and able to sort of take over in the event that the existing state somehow just falls. In the Cuban case, >> is not a case that the Trump administration is making, by the way.

[00:02:00]>> That is not a case that they're making.

[00:02:01]Uh but but and I think that's what's more striking, that to be in Miami and hear for calls that, you know, the big moment of change is on the horizon, if this administration came to the conclusion of Venezuela that even that opposition was not ready to take over and not ready to earn the support of the Venezuelan military, how can they not arrive at a similar conclusion in the Cuban case?

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