Scientists Estimate Humanity Has a 1/20 Chance of Extinction By 2100: Here's Why

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Researchers have estimated that there is a roughly 1 in 20 chance that humanity will go extinct by 2100. Yes, that is five times more likely than your risk of expiring in a car accident in your lifetime. Now, we do talk a lot about potential catastrophes here, but have you ever wondered what are the most likely scenarios that will result in mankind's extinction? Well, we'll talk about it. Also, apparently a layman think that humanity's extinction is not really a big concern until it gets to be 30% in the next 100 years.

[00:00:28]Look, if there was 1 in 20 chance that a plane would go down every time you flew, would you really fly? I mean, I would, but that's a different story. Let's talk about it. There are going to be two major factors, social and environmental, and unfortunately, those align. Also, I'm interested to know that artificial intelligence has been added to the list.

[00:00:47]I wonder if anyone would have said that 10 years ago.

[00:00:50]Yeah, I checked, and at least eight years ago, artificial intelligence was still on the list.

[00:00:55]Now, one of the greatest risk factors is our ability to work together in a society, and this allows us to address any of our other disasters.

[00:01:04]We need to believe that there is a society worth participating in, because believe it or not, we all have a pact that we will engage in the world around us, and once we stop believing in the rule of law, well, then we just have chaos.

[00:01:19]We know this. We know that depression and mental illness in general are skyrocketing. People are losing their capacity to believe in a future, and that could cause the entire house of cards to collapse.

[00:01:31]Now, when it comes to specific incidents, let's talk about a few, starting with maybe least concerning.

[00:01:35]One is a giant asteroid. Now, this one would be very bad, and we don't really have any way to address it. I mean, researchers are working on that, but if it happened tomorrow, yeah, we'd be in some trouble.

[00:01:49]Some people are feeling a little bit more optimistic, because in 2024, we did have a global committee come together and figure out what we would do if something were to hit Earth. So, at least people are willing to work together for external threats. I think the same would happen for aliens. Now, ecological collapse is my biggest concern in part because I am a molecular biologist and I work in agriculture. I make alternative fertilizers and I am not very optimistic about the future for ecology. We are watching the global ecosystem collapse. I have talked about it, but we're losing about 2 to 3% of total insect biomass on Earth every year, which is an insane number. I mean, that is unfathomable.

[00:02:27]Insects happen to support everything that eats them and everything that eats them supports everything that eats them.

[00:02:33]So, that is a big component of the ecosystem collapse, but we're also seeing birds and mammals. Basically, everything is failing to thrive on our planet except maybe pigeons and rats, which people think of as dirty, but I mean, at least they can survive us. We only think of those animals as dirty because we think of ourselves as dirty in my opinion.

[00:02:52]And as long as we're considering the ecosystem, water is a enormous issue.

[00:02:56]Cities, even in the United States, are running out of water. People are going to have to move.

[00:03:02]As we are taking fossil water from the ground and again, not just a US problem.

[00:03:06]Just for example, Mexico City is sinking about 9 in a year because what used to hold it up is now collapsing.

[00:03:14]Once that water is gone, there's no other options unless we figure out an effective way to replenish it, which seems a little bit silly. If we can produce that much water from say desalination, why are we taking it from aquifers? It's beside the point. As people flee from inland cities, our oceans are also rising. So, we're going to see some massive upheaval. What, 30% of the Earth's human population lives near the ocean. It is important to understand that no one catastrophe stands alone.

[00:03:42]All of these are connected economic to side to infrastructure. Infrastructure is also tied to our ecology.

[00:03:49]Any part of this house of cards coming down could cause a global catastrophe.

[00:03:55]And of course, all of this is standing on the backs of our willingness to participate in society and come up with solutions because if there is no hope, then no one is going to be motivated for a change. Yes, one person cannot do all that much, but we can all work together and maybe something would change.

[00:04:12]Unfortunately, a lot of people feel disenfranchised and that there just is no hope.

[00:04:18]And I guess because I didn't address it, is AI going to be responsible for our ultimate downfall? If we do fall, yeah, it'll probably be part of it only by virtue of AI running all of our systems.

[00:04:29]So, imagine artificial intelligence makes a bad call during human conflict.

[00:04:35]That could happen.

[00:04:36]Or it might miss an asteroid that's zooming by. AI has been integrated into everything. So, if there is an end for humanity, it will probably play a role among many roles.

[00:04:49]If artificial intelligence ends up becoming conscious and collapsing global infrastructure, well, that would certainly be interesting, but I do not view it as high in the probability of what will take us out.

[00:05:00]And yes, I know people are thinking it, but why is my hair purple? I don't know because I wanted it to be purple. What do you want from me?

[00:05:08]If the robots ever do rebel, I will probably be the first person to tell you about it and I'm on their side. Follow me for more.