Your Mortgage Rate Just Got Hit by Global Conflicts

Ajouté : 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]beautiful homes priced what seem to be properly sitting and I can't help but think that it's just I mean they're just priced too high. You're listening to the Ottawa Real Estate Podcast, your go-to source for all things Canadian real estate. Hello and welcome back to the Ottawa Real Estate Podcast, your go-to source for all things Canadian real estate. My name is Paul Stevenson. I'm a level two mortgage agent. I'm joined by David Warren, level two mortgage agent, owner at Referral Mortgages, and the Martini Madness guru. David, how's it going? How's the week?

[00:00:32]>> Good. Good. A uh a good start to the week. We had a uh a good weekend out in uh Carlton Place watching, having a day of sports on Saturday. Good time.

[00:00:45]>> But uh >> week started off all right. We've got uh like you alluded to, we've got Martini Madness this Thursday uh in support of Crohn's colitis research. So for any of you, like I said last week, it's this Thursday 6 p.m. at Lago in support of Crohn's Research. Tickets are available online, martini-madness.ca.

[00:01:06]You can buy them there. You can also buy them at the door. We've got live music, DJ, uh art show, dinner stations, martini sampling. It's a uh a good time.

[00:01:18]It's a good time for any of you for any of you that haven't come.

[00:01:22]>> Ask around. You'll hear good things.

[00:01:24]>> Yeah. And there's always some uh amazing sponsors at the uh Martini Madness. And I just want to take a chance, Dave, to thank our sponsors as well. Thank you to all the sponsors globally. Hey, everyone who sponsors anything. Congratulations.

[00:01:36]We thank you. We appreciate you. Yeah.

[00:01:38]No, it's going to be a good time, Dave.

[00:01:39]And I know that uh you like you said, it's it's for a good cause every year.

[00:01:43]It's always a great time. It's always a packed house. It's like every year it seems to get busier, which I just don't understand how it happens, but it seems to be an event that everyone loves.

[00:01:52]Everyone talks about the next day for what they remember. You know what I mean?

[00:01:55]>> It'll it'll it'll be busier this year.

[00:01:57]We've got uh more tickets sold than we ever have before. So, should be uh >> should be a good time.

[00:02:02]>> Incredible. Last week when we got off the call, uh we had two there was a rate announcement in the US and rate announcement here in Canada. What do you think, Dave? How do we feel about the hold of the rate and what are we seeing coming in the next six months, 12 months? Rates seem to be kind of all over the place now and and I do want to touch on rates because the rate conversations have shifted. But what are your thoughts first on the Bank of Canada's rate announcement last week?

[00:02:27]Um, MLM obviously as people probably saw held the overnight lending rate which uh means a bank prime uh did not change no increase or decrease even with some pressure the oil and energy sector pressure on inflation but there was kind of a a tone that MLM took in his in his speech kind of you know kind of a warning and about not just maybe keeping things stable but that there you know that he has done consecutive increases in in the past and I think that's important for it wasn't just like a subtle tone but it was a change in in tone. So instead of the confidence that inflation is cooling but signaling real concern around energydriven inflation sticking around longer than expected being that we all thought including our neighbors to the south thought that it would be very quick in uh in the Middle East but this is dragging on now to 2 months and I know there was another you know talks yesterday around you know ending it you know another peace deal proposal but again this is still dragged on now to to two months and that's really hitting the energy sector which thus far hasn't moved through the other uh areas of our economy into like food and and and movement of of food and trucking and and agriculture things like that. But the longer it sticks around and that stickier it becomes and that is going to impact inflation. So that's what he was really kind of stressing on and he's really worried and he is kind of the bank is worried about losing control of inflation expectations if they ease too soon. So instead of moving towards cuts going forward, they're essentially saying like we're prepared to go the other way if they have to, which was really an interesting kind of change in tone that that people found.

[00:04:13]>> Yeah. And here's the thing, Dave, with the conflict overseas is that we're seeing immediate responses in prices. So for example, if it's a a 5day delay or now we're talking, like you said, one or two months, that backlog or the uh slowing of the straight and of things going through there, whether it be goods, oil, etc. We feel the price effects immediately. It's not something that happens, you know, 6 12 months down the road. We're seeing the same thing with oil. You know, oil being, I think it was at $103 a barrel. It's gone from $80 a barrel to 118 down to 90 again, back up to 102. Like these are felt immediately. We feel it at the pump because we see the prices go up and down 20 cents a liter, 35 cents a liter within days. But also interest rates, like we talk about, you know, fixed rates and obviously variable rates when we're talking the Bank of Canada, but fixed rates are impacted by those bonds and we've seen those bonds spike up almost in line with oil prices. So oil prices go up, bonds go up, fixed rates go up. So we've been kind of seeing that consistently and I think even the bonds today were at 3 and a quarter whereas they're under 3% you know a month and a half ago. So we're seeing the immediate effects of that conflict back home here and it's increased the cost of everything immediately, right? So the last month and a half has been increased gas, increased food costs, increased mortgage rates, everything is more expensive because of this conflict. So you know, a lot of people think, you know, you speak to people, they're like, I don't pay attention. I don't know what's happening. Well, it it impacts everyone. It impacts us here in Canada.

[00:05:44]It impacts us in Ottawa. And it impacts every aspect of our lives because of this ongoing conflict. So the sooner everything is resolved, obviously I mean I think everyone is looking for a resolution here. But just to explain the impact that it has on us back here is that it it impacts every aspect of our lives even though it feels like it's thousands of miles away. It's not like it's right it's right here at home. Uh and we feel it there. I mean, another area that's being hit immediately is there's even in Europe, there's flights having to be flight and routes having to be uh cancelled or delayed because of a shortfall of of oil and and not having enough fuel or or a fuel shortage um throughout Europe for for the number of flights. So, that's going to drive up airline costs and travel costs as we're entering into the summer, which is again going to impact people's budgets and and what they have. So all that to say that the bank Tim Mackham, you know, his his speech was just cautious around, you know, instead of talking about cooling inflation, it was a complete switch in tone about worrying about sticky inflation and inflation issues of it increasing and and bumping up above 3%.

[00:06:52]But they're obviously aware that, you know, stripping out energy costs, and I think that's what they're going to be looking at is, okay, well, when we're looking at inflationary numbers and what we do with the overnight lending rate, let's strip out of that the energy costs and how does that when we strip out that, how does what is the core inflation look like without that? And I think that's what they're going to be looking at moving forward knowing that this is, you know, a currently a temporary, you know, hopefully temporary issue that is going to take time for it to resolve. But yeah, I think that was that was a very interesting kind of commentary on that side of things. But then, you know, right in right after it, we had the government come out with their spring economic update, which, you know, there wasn't much in it from a housing standpoint. You know, I'll just focus on housing, leaving out everything else. But, you know, their their latest latest housing plan delivered a little bit of progress and promise and uh and so kind of a couple key highlights. This is more so in the building standpoint, you know, for developers and things like that, but one interesting area was that they're going to be looking at rewriting the mortgage insurance qualifications to allow for right now from a construction or from an insuring multi-residential properties. It's only been CHC that's been allowed to do this, which is a crown corporation. There's two private publicly traded companies, Sagun and Kenna Guarantee, uh, which also also are mortgage default insurers. They have thus far not been able to insure multi-residential properties. So, they're capped out at four units up to that they can insure. So, they're looking at opening that up to allowing those two other private insurers to underwrite up to eight units of residential properties. So this is a market that CHC has like absolutely hold held the monopoly on. So that'll be good from a pricing standpoint, I think. And as well the speed of turnaround. It's kind of a an an area in the market of 5 to8 units, which is kind of a really um utilized area or or for small developers, small communities that have, you know, eight units, 68 units that haven't been able to secure financing, it's been hard cuz it's a lower, you know, I put in quotations, a lower loan amount for these borrowers and for these types of properties that a lot of lenders don't want to lend in that 1 million to 3 million range on multi- residential. Um, and it's only been CHC that's been in that realm. So, this is going to add more options for lenders and I think probably open up that that lender pool, which will be great. Um, and again, any new competition is just going to be beneficial and in all facets. So, they're saying they're going to initiate a 30-day consultation on this and announce further details after this consultation. I think that's good to hear that they're looking at going right into consultation um as opposed to like public where who knows whether this is actually going to make it anywhere, you know. And to to give you context like CHC, their insurance program, they financed or backed nine out of 10 rental properties or apartment buildings since, you know, in the last few years. So 9 out of 10, it's a pretty big portion of the market. So hopefully that expands and that expands that lending pool as well. Next being more flexibility for three and four unit new build. So >> looking at expanding mortgage rules to amend to give insurers more flexibility on products for borrow for borrowers to build triplexes and forplexes. So right now there's not anything that will address that. Again, CHC construction financing is really focused on five units and up and really only in the higher number of units, whereas this is now looking at how can they provide mortgage insurance for three and four units. What this allows for again is better pricing, you know, more access to financing for these. So those smaller the smaller units and and those triplexes and forplexes a lot of times are like those larger units for for families like you're not in the high you know multi-story where they're just like the studio onebedroom you know kind of units you're getting into more of those like two three two and threebedroom units which I think will be uh which again will be will be great but they're only again like like I kind of said before they're only talking about their next steps is public consultation they're not starting like a 30-day consultation so you know who knows knows whether this will actually go anywhere.

[00:11:13]I think the first one seems like it'll have some traction being that they're starting a 30-day consultation on it.

[00:11:18]The other one's like uh we'll start public consultation at some point. I was going to say one of the one of the key points that uh that I saw was with regards to the home buyers plan for the RSP withdrawals. So, typically you have to start repaying it the year after you withdraw it. I think you have a 2-year window. They've extended that now from 2 years to 5 years. So, if you're withdrawing under your home buyer plan, you now have basically a 5 years of grace before you have to start repaying it, which I think for first-time buyers, especially those that are pulling it from the RRSP is actually a a pretty good increase. Like from two years to 5 years, not the two years was unfavorable. Like, I think that was already a good grace period, but 5 years is much longer. You're basically getting through your whole first term before you have to start repaying back into your RRSP, which I think is going to offer some relief, right? where you don't have to pay that extra whatever it is $500,000 a year back to your RSP depending on how much you took could be more could be 5,000 depending on how much you take out of your RSP but I think that's that was a really um a really good initiative that they added as well that I saw.

[00:12:19]>> Yeah. Yeah. No, for sure. I mean there's it's kind of funny that they say that that grace period to repay it when technically you don't actually have to recontribute it back to your RRSPs.

[00:12:30]they'll just add that 115th to your income every year >> income.

[00:12:34]>> But uh but it is, you know, kind of that having that grace, that additional grace period where it's not eating into or adding to your income is certainly a good thing, >> right? Your home is one of your biggest investments and the team at Big West Bro can help you protect it. Our expert brokers will find the perfect coverage to keep your home and belongings safe.

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[00:13:54]Even the best photographer can't hide drywall dust and paint splatter. And every day you delay listing could mean missing peak spring pricing in Ottawa. A Toz cleaning expert gets your property truly photo ready. Don't risk going to market half ready. Mention towrep at a tozcleingexpert.com to receive priority scheduling for your next listing. This might not make a lot of sense for a lot of people, but for some listing it might. Every year there's city mortgage bonds that are issued to fund mortgage um mortgages within Canada. Um so they've they're increasing that issuance of bonds up to 80 million 80 billion rather in 2026 from 60 billion last year. So this is amount of um CMBB bonds that are available. What this does is it increases it improves the cost effectiveness for um funding for purpose bill rentals for multifamily construction. There's been such an uptick in this in these programs that the lenders dip into the bond market uh for cheaper financing. And so this is to help spurn that as well.

[00:15:01]>> Mhm. there are I mean the government ironically is also backstopping 30 billion of it um then purchasing back uh 30 billion of it to but at the end of the day what this will help with is the financing and and the pricing and costing of uh of borrowing funds on the multif family construction side of things. So um you know what that will lead to is is in essence the idea is cheaper construction costs which then should lead to helping you know increasing supply which we've been seeing in basically all markets of you know rental rates come down. you know, we had Shaun on from Korea a number of, you know, a couple months ago talking about that that shift from purpose-built, you know, homes or single family homes into the multi- residential or or multif family supply. Uh and that's created a big uptick of supply which we've then seen like rental rates come down which is a great thing for the rental market not so great on the resale right now even though we kind of see that supply but like things like this of increasing that CMBB pool will help with that financing which again will continue to increase that rental supply and drive down those costs which are good for for renters and and bringing that uh that overall monthly expense down. The last being is that you know the unfortunate thing is that we're still continuing along that trend of massive def deficits. So still in that 80 billion range and really by 2030 not having any sight any goal at all of getting into into a balanced budget and really looking into you know kind of even the next 5 years of being around you know still at getting a little bit better but still being at the uh 50 billion uh in deficit range which you know is unfortunate um that you know kind of the plan is to continue that spending spree.

[00:16:50]something uh to that point, Dave, I want to just ask you about what you're seeing because, you know, we obviously speak to a lot of realtors kind of day in and day out and what's kind of the overall market sentiment you're hearing now?

[00:17:01]It's May 5th, May 6th when this comes out. This is kind of typically your peak spring market. So, rates are fairly stagnant right now, kind of in a holding pattern. The realtors I'm speaking to, lots of open houses, lots of interest, but what are you hearing as far as like transactions? Are things moving? Are people listing? like what are you hearing is happening out in the market?

[00:17:22]>> A number of listings, people interested, but nobody pulling the not a lot pulling the trigger. And I think that's seen in the in the sales figures. I I think people are still cautious with the bonds being up. You know, I think they're up 25 basis points in the last couple of weeks. Uh they're in around 3%, they're up to 3 and a quarter right now in the last week and a half or so. I really wouldn't be surprised if we see fixed rates increase again, which is going to be unfortunate. I think a lot of the banks are eating their margin right now because they don't want to move their rates and they're just eating it in hopes that they can win business, you know, shave those margins down and just to stay stay in the market. But I I think but there's going to be a point at which they're going to have to if bonds continue to stay around that 3 and a quarter range, which we're at right now, I don't see any world in which they can't. And that's going to that's going to slow things on the on the resale side even more. I know GTA they did see like a 7% increase in sales, but I mean they've been at basically zero, so you know.

[00:18:23]>> Yeah. Yeah. 7% of nothing is >> Yeah, it's still nothing. Um but yeah, I mean I'm certainly not seeing like an influx of sales transactions. It continues to be refinances at, you know, refinances, renewals. But how about yourself? for you seeing um an uptick in in purchase agreements or in transactional conversations?

[00:18:44]>> No, I have seen I have seen an uptick in new builds like last couple weeks I guess since they announced the the GST the kind of tax savings. Um I have seen a few probably three maybe new build contracts since that happened just people I think they've maybe just shifted their focus like oh there's all these advantages for buying a new build let's go take a look. So I think that happened for a week. I think people have already forgotten about it, you know, like I don't think it's something that is front of mind anymore. I mean, it will be as it as we go, but for it being May 5th, I would say same thing. A lot of renewal conversations, a lot of refinance conversations, and maybe 20% purchases like of of my total book of conversations right now. So, I think the renewals are to be expected just cuz we had a lot of people buying in that 2020 2021 range. But also, you'd assume when people are up for renewal like that that they would consider potentially at that point listing, moving, etc., which is typically what happens. But I think a lot of people are just thinking, you know, we don't know where the economy is going to be in 6 months, a year. Let's maybe hold off on the move and let's just stay put for now. So, everyone I think everyone also is kind of in that holding pattern. Although, there was an expectation that there'd be a lot of listings this year and I think there is.

[00:19:57]The May stats or sorry, the April stats should be out today or this week. So, we'll have those next week. So, we'll be able to see exactly what the days on market are, number of listings. I would imagine everything has gone up. Like, days on market has to have increased just based on what I'm seeing sitting.

[00:20:11]Beautiful homes priced what seem to be properly sitting. And I can't help but think that it's just I mean, they're just priced too high, you know, like the market has shifted and people are still lagging. It's just I think as a seller and you know having been there myself and a buyer, you know, but just as a seller, you kind of have this expectation that you're going to get equal to or more than what you listed at and that the market is going to continue going up and that you're never going to be selling in a downswing. You know, it's just like the psychology of a seller. You don't think that the market could actually be lower than what you're listing it at. You know, like you don't want to believe it almost. You're just like unrealistic, right? Like you're maybe thinking of a price from six months ago that's just not there anymore. and you have to adapt to the current market conditions. And I've spoken to agents like realtors who say, I've suggested X price to my clients and they don't want to do that. Like they're basically saying like, let's try it at this higher price for 3 weeks and then we'll readjust or a week or whatever it is.

[00:21:07]>> But they're openly telling me that, you know, their clients are not listening to their advice. So clients like the people selling the property, the homeowners are prompting the realtor to list it higher, which is then causing homes to stay on the market longer as well because the agent coming in that is looking to buy the house with their clients knows that, you know, they have the same comps that the person that advised them to list it lower has. So they're going to know like we're not paying 800. We can see comparables of 750, you know. So it's like you you you should trust your professional. And that kind of leads me into our conversation where we were we talked a lot about AI and AI kind of sneaking its way into the real estate industry. And we had someone comment on the YouTube video and said, "I don't believe realtors are more honest than AI. In 95% of cases, I would trust AI rather than a realtor. So many bad realtors just there to grab your money."

[00:21:58]So I just responded. I said, "How is AI going to show you around a home and explain the nuances of the property?"

[00:22:03]And I said, "Just just to grab your money?" I said, 'Can elaborate on what you think realtors do and how you see it changing. And I was trying to be fair, like just tell me where your head's at, you know? And the response was, "Realtor's opinions are often biased. If withholding or shaping information helps close a deal, many will do it. For example, when new build homes were lined up and I had a chance for a quick move in, my realtor told me none were available. It is already gone." Which turned out to be false. I contacted the builder directly and confirmed the unit was in fact available. In contrast, AI isn't inherently biased in that way and can provide comprehensive information about an area. You're right, the nuances matter, but only a small percentage of realtors share them. Most aim to minimize time spent, complete the transaction, and move on. And for interior specific details, hiring a home inspector is often more effective and reliable option. And I was using a highly recommended realtor. Later, I realized that those recommendations are usually meant to benefit the realtor, not me. What do you think about that, Dave? There's a lot in there. So the one comment about a unit not being available but then contacting the builder and it being available. I mean it I don't know the situation around that. However, if you're basing it off AI and that was AI you're working with a like at least right now AI isn't contacting that builder and ask them if it's available.

[00:23:23]They're going based on what the information is available online for it to be able to source. So AI wouldn't have been able to discern whether it was available or not. I would, you know, I would imagine maybe at some point they're picking up the phone and uh and and calling a builder to to decipher that maybe. But so that that part would require that human interaction of, you know, I can't speak to why that wasn't done because that's basically the crux of the the comment is around this specific interaction that the individual had.

[00:23:52]>> Yeah.

[00:23:52]>> And that specific builder. I was just going to say I can't speak to that individual like that instance with that specific one.

[00:23:59]>> Yeah. And I think Josh Josh K was the uh the commenter. I think Josh to be fair like to be as fair as possible clearly your opinion is based on your experience as Dave said. So like you had that experience which then creates your own opinion which is completely fair and understandable. I think there is a lot more nuance than just you know like in that case a lot also with builder relationships with realtors are very unique and I don't know exactly what happened in this case so we'll just you know we're just using this as examples because you mentioned it but in a lot of cases if you go directly to the build center without your agent your agent no longer is involved in the transaction like the builders if you check in or say hello or go see a unit they will no longer if you go back with your agent they're not going to deal with your realtor anymore like you're basically an independent buyer at that point, which I don't necessarily agree with.

[00:24:53]I'm not saying it's good or bad, but I'm just saying that that is typically what happened. So, in this case, who knows?

[00:24:58]Maybe your agent talked to someone at the build center who didn't know that the lot was still available. I mean, there's so many things that could have happened here, but generally speaking, I think the argument for realtors, like most people, if you're going to look at a home, yes, there's, you know, we've seen virtual walkthroughs and 3D tours and, you know, drone drive drone flythroughs, but there's something about like being physically in a home you're going to live in that you just can't replicate. Now, can you go see the house yourself? Sure. But are you going to know that, you know, this frame was built by the original owners and, you know, 1902 and and oh, you got to know about this plumbing because the septic does this and that. Like, you're not going to know that by walking through it yourself, you know? So, there is just things that you're just not going to have the experience of. Someone calls Dave and I and asks us about a what happens during a separation. They might have been separated three times themselves, but they're not an expert in the mortgage impact of going through a separation. Like, you need someone who's knowledgeable and who's an expert. Now, can an a can an AI agent have a whole bunch of information? Sure, but not about that specific property. They might know that, oh, if there's damage, you need to get this checked or you have to have this appraisal done and general information, but specific information about a property and more so having access to the property with someone who is an expert and getting in the property, feeling it like what's how does it feel in the home? What are the bones? Like, everyone can agree. You walk into some homes and you're just like, let's get the hell out of here.

[00:26:22]Like there's some there's something in the walls. It's it's like an energy you don't want to be a part of. You can't feel that through a camera, you know?

[00:26:28]You have to be there. You have to physically be there. And being with a realtor who has seen a hundred of these properties and oh, you got to know that there's this slight rattle in these builds or in these models or whatever.

[00:26:38]There's all these sorts of things that a good realtor is going to know that AI will just never know for the time being, you know? So, that's my opinion. I mean, I think who's to say what's going to happen in 5 years, but I think for now, undeniably, like agents have huge value, right? Especially when you're going to look at a property or when you're listing your property, there's going to be things you don't know about your own property that they're going to tell you that either increases the value or decreases the value. And to me, that's that's paramount when you're listing or buying a house is to have that insight.

[00:27:07]It's also the removal of emotion having that intermediary when negotiating to purchase or to list like you said of people not taking the heeding the advice of what you know listing their property at a certain price point and the strategy around that. you know, you really only have that one shot when you lose that period of time, how that it impacts can impact things. But the people become in are inherently emotional and especially when you're talking about money and they're even more emotional when that comes into play and they get even more upset when somebody tries to offer something that they think is out to lunch and they get super emotional about it and they want to tell that person to, you know, kick bricks instead of having that intermediary to explain like this is a starting point. Hey, let's look at this.

[00:27:59]let's strategize about like what we're going to come back with. Again, being that unemotional intermediary between that buyer and seller and whichever side that individuals on that the that realtor's representing is a huge benefit on its own.

[00:28:13]>> Yeah, you're right. And I mean, we joke about all the time as mortgage professionals and realtors that we're also therapists. Like, how many times do we talk to someone who has 12 hours till their conditions are up and they're just panicked? Like, understandably, right?

[00:28:26]It's like, this is a huge financial decision. they need 600,000 by 6:00 p.m.

[00:28:30]today and they've never done this before and it's they're buying their first home and they, you know, it's everything is new. So for us where we do this every day, it's kind of like, you know, we know that, okay, it's got to go to the underwriter, it's got to do this. So properly communicating the process and easing people's minds is worth way more than saving X amount of dollars, right?

[00:28:50]Like having that peace of mind going through the most stressful transaction of your life or one of is very important and it's important to have people beside you that can explain clearly what's happening walk you through the process and make sure it's it's seamless for you and you know as of right now that doesn't exist with AI you know will it in the future again I'm not saying it won't but as of today still huge value obviously in the industry by working with professionals >> have said it better myself on that note should we uh slide into uh slide into some mood boosts.

[00:29:22]>> You know what, Dave? I have four boosts for you today. I have four of them.

[00:29:26]That's one more than three. I can count as well.

[00:29:28]>> Thanks. Thanks, coach.

[00:29:30]>> Here we go. Number one, that comes before too. Number one, did you hear about the guy who froze to death at the drive-in?

[00:29:37]He went to see clothes for the winter.

[00:29:40]Terrible joke. I don't like that one at all. Uh, number two, where do bad rainbows go? Prism. It's just a light sentence.

[00:29:50]Mhm. Prism. Um, number three, I like waiters. They bring a lot to the table.

[00:29:57]And last but not least, the boost. The bonus boost. April showers bring May flowers, Dave. But here's the thing. You can't plant flowers if you haven't botney.

[00:30:08]If you haven't botany.

[00:30:11]>> Terrible book end.

[00:30:12]>> Thank you everyone for dealing with us, listening. Every Wednesday at 10 a.m., we got new episodes. You can follow us on our socials. Got some exclusive shorts and content on there. Thank you, David, for being here. Thank you to our sponsors. Have a great week, everyone.

[00:30:26]What a wild >> madness. Martini madness.