Why A US-Iran Peace Deal Is ‘Nowhere Near’ | Nomi Bar-Yaacov

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]Both sides, both the US and Iran are taking maximalist positions and you're seeing some pivoting on specially on the US side. Iranians seem to have stuck to their sort of red lines. Their red lines are not acceptable to the US.

[00:00:16]>> The US military has carried out strikes on Iran targeting a military site in Bandar Abbas, a strategic port city. In response In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it has targeted a US airbase without providing details of its location. The exchange of fire adds to the growing uncertainty over whether the US-Iran ceasefire will hold. Noemi Bar-Yaacov is an international peace negotiator and a fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and she joins me now.

[00:00:45]Welcome to the show.

[00:00:47]>> Thank you very much, Ed, for having me on your show.

[00:00:49]>> You're welcome. Noemi, I think we're used during the ceasefire to see the odd exchange of fire. Is this nothing more, I don't want to trivialize it, but a sort of brief tit-for-tat that the Iranians and the Americans are sort of used to having every two or three days?

[00:01:03]>> Well, it's the third so-called tit-for-tat, but the issue is that we really don't know what the end game is and whether they will manage to reach a framework agreement, a so-called memorandum of understanding. The hope is that such a memorandum will be agreed upon, but both sides, both the US and Iran are taking maximalist positions and you're seeing some pivoting on specially on the US side. Iranians seem to have stuck to their sort of red lines. Their red lines are not acceptable to the US. Now, the US president has said overnight that he is not willing to have anyone manage the Strait of Hormuz. Iranians are insisting on management and he's actually imposed sanctions on the new body that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have stepped The Islamic uh uh the IRGC Islamic core they have just said that they will uh both charge a toll which they uh call a protection fee and that every ship that wants to go through the straits needs to go through uh them to get permission from them.

[00:02:14]That's clearly not acceptable not only to the US but to um all the regional states. So, we're pretty stuck at the moment and until this is going to be resolved, we are likely to see um an escalation. So, I would say that it's we're in quite a dangerous uh um point of potential inflection right uh right at this given moment in time.

[00:02:36]>> Yes, I think >> [clears throat] >> the danger is that uh Donald Trump runs out of patience. I mean, he talked up uh a peace deal earlier in the week and I was under the impression one was imminent, but everyone we've spoken to during the week says this will take at least uh 2 months. I guess one of the questions about a peace deal is who has the most patience. Donald Trump uh given the impact on the American economy uh or the Iranians given uh the absolutely devastating state of their own country.

[00:03:08]>> Well, the issue with the 2 months is that the 2 months to negotiate the sort of thorny issues um between the sides including the nuclear issue including the frozen 1.2 billion uh frozen assets. You as you know, there 440 kg of uh 60% enriched uranium and a far larger quantity of 20% enriched uranium. And those are really complicated issues to negotiate. The question really is whether they're going to reach a memorandum of understanding framework agreement um at you know, which will be a serious ceasefire as opposed to a declared ceasefire where you're seeing these uh tit-for-tat fighting with the potential for real escalation in the fighting. So, I think a peace deal is a long way away and I don't think it'll take 2 months, 60 days to resolve. I think we're talking far, far, far, far longer period and I think the Iranians have a very sort of uh um they they have a long-term strategy as opposed to Trump who's quite impulsive and they are trying to uh wait until Trump will no longer be in office or when he may be a lame duck and that's their sort of grand strategy.

[00:04:17]Whether they will succeed or not, it's uh not clear. In But, what is clear is that they cannot even agree on a framework agreement. Yes, there've been many reports in the press. You said yourself you thought it was you were on the brink of it. I have consistently been saying and I'm still saying that we're not on the brink of an agreement because with these issues, unless you agree on a 100% text uh of the memorandum of understanding, you haven't agreed on anything. And at the moment, the preconditions for such a memorandum of understanding are a major sticking point. There isn't an agreement between the sides and what we're seeing is some uh resumption of fighting. Four drones taken out uh by four Iranian drones uh by the US overnight in attack a retaliatory attack by Iran in presumably Kuwait, which is where the activation has taken place of the uh ground-to-air um defenses. So, it's not so um we're we're not we're not the deal isn't closed and unless it's signed. And so, all of this all of this reporting about on the fact that we are virtually there, um I'm very skeptical about it and I will only uh I think we need to wait and see.

[00:05:31]But, the risks are vast.

[00:05:33]>> Yes, I can see that. Naomi Baryaku, thank you for giving us a course correction there and uh telling us what is really going on.

[00:05:40]That's Naomi Baryaku, an international peace negotiator and fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, talking about the prospects of peace in the light of recent exchange of fire between the US and Iran.